Drafting Backwards - The Defense

[MadCardDisease]

I'm sorry, but I'm not ready to just surrender a second rebuild season because this pathetic team was too slow at everything (it started pre-Monti, but he took the job, after all) to get going in time. That is simply not an excuse. Not enough time, had to run on a skeleton staff of your own, had to work with the prior regime? Then freaking make it work. If he's a GM worth half his salt, he would have had his eye on the FA market and have some ideas that a series of meetings with the coaching staff could hash out. There was no excuse to punt completely on FA. Sorry, that's going to hose us for NEXT season, so no. They get one year, then they compete. Period.

I'm just telling you what I'm hearing. Nothing that I'm hearing suggests that the Cardinals don't plan on competing in 2024.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Nothing that I'm hearing suggests that the Cardinals don't plan on competing in 2024.

Other than nearly 100 years of failure! Maybe next year boys!

 

[Stout]

I'm just telling you what I'm hearing. Nothing that I'm hearing suggests that the Cardinals don't plan on competing in 2024.

I'm just telling you what I'm seeing. I'm not seeing how two drafts and one ginormous FA spending spree will get us there. Two moderate FA periods would be much smarter and, frankly, preferable from my vantage.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm just telling you what I'm hearing. Nothing that I'm hearing suggests that the Cardinals don't plan on competing in 2024.

Are you hearing that they don't plan on competing in 2023?

 

[MadCardDisease]

Are you hearing that they don't plan on competing in 2023?

They know that they probably won't win many games in 2023 and they obviously won't say that. Also it doesn't mean that they won't be trying to win games. From what I hear Gannon is a very positive guy but he is also a very competitive guy. He is playing that angle at least for now and plans on being competitive in every game.

We'll see what happens when the losses start to mount and/or injuries take out key players on a very thin team. That positive message can get old when things are not going your way. However it worked for the Lions when Dan Campbell took over and his team never quit that first season. The Lions finished the season strong and that is the hope with the Cardinals this year. The Lions also dramatically improved in season two pushing for a playoff spot and only missing out due to a tie breaker. I believe the Cardinals would be very happy with a shot at the playoffs during week 18 in year two of this rebuild.

This is my guess for 2023: The Cards Offense tries to control the ball on offense using the run game to keep the defense off the field for as long as possible. Defense will be bend don't break and will probably give up a ton of yards but try and limit points to field goals. The hope being that they remain close enough in the 4th so that the offense has a chance to drive down the field for a win. I believe that if things go south early you will see a bunch of the young players getting more time as they get experience and the Cards Staff see what they have. Again that's just my guess.

 

[PACardsFan]

It all hangs on the QB. If Murray gets religion and turns into a productive, somewhat durable QB then they could compete with good FAs and a great draft. If they conclude they have to start over and draft a QB they likely won‘t be competitive in 2024. I think you can stop worrying about the record and focus on the QB play.

To be honest, I have zero concerns about the QB position. Even with crappy coaching, crappy drafting, and a crappy OL, Murray has shown (if healthy) that’s he’s quite capable of leading this team to success. And if he can’t prove this year that he can stay healthy, we’ll be in prime position to draft another stud QB next year.

 

[Stout]

They know that they probably won't win many games in 2023 and they obviously won't say that. Also it doesn't mean that they won't be trying to win games. From what I hear Gannon is a very positive guy but he is also a very competitive guy. He is playing that angle at least for now and plans on being competitive in every game.

We'll see what happens when the losses start to mount and/or injuries take out key players on a very thin team. That positive message can get old when things are not going your way. However it worked for the Lions when Dan Campbell took over and his team never quit that first season. The Lions finished the season strong and that is the hope with the Cardinals this year. The Lions also dramatically improved in season two pushing for a playoff spot and only missing out due to a tie breaker. I believe the Cardinals would be very happy with a shot at the playoffs during week 18 in year two of this rebuild.

This is my guess for 2023: The Cards Offense tries to control the ball on offense using the run game to keep the defense off the field for as long as possible. Defense will be bend don't break and will probably give up a ton of yards but try and limit points to field goals. The hope being that they remain close enough in the 4th so that the offense has a chance to drive down the field for a win. I believe that if things go south early you will see a bunch of the young players getting more time as they get experience and the Cards Staff see what they have. Again that's just my guess.

Oh man, hell with that bend but don't break nonsense. I'd rather see our defense go down in a blaze of glory than ever watch that puke-inducing style of defense again. The shambolic "bend but eventually break" defense.

You're likely right on how this will all play out.

 

[kerouac9]

They know that they probably won't win many games in 2023 and they obviously won't say that. Also it doesn't mean that they won't be trying to win games. From what I hear Gannon is a very positive guy but he is also a very competitive guy. He is playing that angle at least for now and plans on being competitive in every game.

We'll see what happens when the losses start to mount and/or injuries take out key players on a very thin team. That positive message can get old when things are not going your way. However it worked for the Lions when Dan Campbell took over and his team never quit that first season. The Lions finished the season strong and that is the hope with the Cardinals this year. The Lions also dramatically improved in season two pushing for a playoff spot and only missing out due to a tie breaker. I believe the Cardinals would be very happy with a shot at the playoffs during week 18 in year two of this rebuild.

This is my guess for 2023: The Cards Offense tries to control the ball on offense using the run game to keep the defense off the field for as long as possible. Defense will be bend don't break and will probably give up a ton of yards but try and limit points to field goals. The hope being that they remain close enough in the 4th so that the offense has a chance to drive down the field for a win. I believe that if things go south early you will see a bunch of the young players getting more time as they get experience and the Cards Staff see what they have. Again that's just my guess.

So what were you trying to say in the post I originally quoted?

Conditions from a front-office level that caused them to forego competitiveness in the 2023 season are still going to hold in 2024. They'll be similarly cap-constrained (at least enough to make it an excuse), similarly coming off a failed season, and similarly have a ton of roster spots to fill (only 36 players are under contract for 2024 today, and that includes Nuk, Budda, Ertz, and Conner).

When you enter the Nick Caserio zone, it's hard to achieve escape velocity.

 

[MadCardDisease]

So what were you trying to say in the post I originally quoted?

Conditions from a front-office level that caused them to forego competitiveness in the 2023 season are still going to hold in 2024. They'll be similarly cap-constrained (at least enough to make it an excuse), similarly coming off a failed season, and similarly have a ton of roster spots to fill (only 36 players are under contract for 2024 today, and that includes Nuk, Budda, Ertz, and Conner).

When you enter the Nick Caserio zone, it's hard to achieve escape velocity.

They are going for a Lions like turn around.

Compete as best they can in year one with a limited roster. Then make a serious push for the playoffs in year 2.

 

[kerouac9]

They are going for a Lions like turn around.

Compete as best they can in year one with a limited roster. Then make a serious push for the playoffs in year 2.

The problem is that 3-13-1 Lions team was probably far more talented than the one the Cards will take into the 2023 season. Most of the best players from that team came back the following year.

 

[MadCardDisease]

The problem is that 3-13-1 Lions team was probably far more talented than the one the Cards will take into the 2023 season. Most of the best players from that team came back the following year.

Only 16 players remained on the Lions from the Matt Patricia era in year 2 of Dan Campbell. That is where the Cardinals are heading from the KK era to the Gannon era.

 

[MadCardDisease]

When you enter the Nick Caserio zone, it's hard to achieve escape velocity.

You have the wrong team, the Cardinals are tracking more towards the Lions rebuild.

 

[kerouac9]

You have the wrong team, the Cardinals are tracking more towards the Lions rebuild.

You don't know that. You can say that's what they're saying -- I'm sure they'd like anxious suiteholders to think that.

The reality is that the Lions rebuild began when they traded Matt Stafford for a boatload of picks plus a franchise-level quarterback on an exceptionally cheap contract.

 

[MadCardDisease]

You don't know that. You can say that's what they're saying -- I'm sure they'd like anxious suiteholders to think that.

The reality is that the Lions rebuild began when they traded Matt Stafford for a boatload of picks plus a franchise-level quarterback on an exceptionally cheap contract.

True, I don't know that but I can see a close trajectory of the rebuild:

Start by cleaning house of the old roster. Then rebuilding through the draft.

Now compare Brad Holmes first draft to Monti's first draft:

Detroit 2021 Draft:
#7 Penei Sewell OT Oregon
#41 Levi Onwuzurike DE Wash
#101 Ifeatu Melifonwu CB Syracuse
#112 Amon-Ra St Brown WR USC

Cardinals 2023 Draft:
#6 Paris Johnson OT OSU
#41 BJ Ojulari DE LSU
#72 Garrett Williams CB Syracuse
#94 Michael Wilson WR Stanford


Both opened with the top OT in the draft.
Both grabbed a DE with the #41st pick overall
Both grabbed a DB out of Syracuse
Both grabbed a slower physical Pac 12 WR who are great off the line and run great routes in the 4th ish round range

Coincidence... Probably

But damn that is freaky close.

Plus the Lions had 2 early first round picks in year two of their rebuild. So do the Cards most likely...

 

[MadCardDisease]

Based off my amazing analysis of the comparison between the Cardinals and the Lions rebuild I can accurately predict what will happen this season.

The Cardinals will start the first half of the season with several heart breaking losses.

Mid way through October during a post game press conference after another close loss, Coach Gannon will shed some tears for his team.

The Cardinals will get a tie mid way through the season.

The Cardinals will finish strong winning a total of 3 games.

They will be on Hard Knocks the next offseason and somehow Jared Goff will be on the team to star for the third time on the series.

 

[HairZach]

I think it's funny how everyone is using the Lions with Dan Campbell as an example of a successful turn around. Campbell's record his first two years is worse than Kliff's and I think he's been given a much better roster, plus they play in an easier division. The Lions look set up for next year, but if all they get is 11 wins and a wildcard loss he is still exactly on the Kliff trajectory.

 

[HairZach]

The more I think about it the more I blame Keim for our last staffs failure. The Cardinals upwards ascent with Kliff was based off of three good free agent signings: Hopkins, JJ, and Hudson. When any of the "Big 3" in the Kliff era missed time, the team collapsed like a house of cards. You can blame leadership, but the talent just wasn't there. There was no foundation.

Meanwhile the Lions are getting good with tremendous draft classes. Due to the Lions front office, I do think Campbell has a better chance of sticking around longer than Kliff. But Campbell still hasn't proved himself yet.

 

[WisconsinCard]

1% lol You're not really selling the plan, man

So you don't consider this current FA a waste? What have we done to help the roster beyond helping it tank? What did we do in FA that will help this team past this lost season? Nothing. If that was the plan, it was bad, IMO.

I am not selling anything. I've told what I think the plan is, and it means doing an analyses of the roster this year and begin the rebuild nest year. If that is the plan then FA this was executed perfectly to the plan. Or at lease perfectly to their plan. IMO

 

[DVontel]

The more I think about it the more I blame Keim for our last staffs failure. The Cardinals upwards ascent with Kliff was based off of three good free agent signings: Hopkins, JJ, and Hudson. When any of the "Big 3" in the Kliff era missed time, the team collapsed like a house of cards. You can blame leadership, but the talent just wasn't there. There was no foundation.

Meanwhile the Lions are getting good with tremendous draft classes. Due to the Lions front office, I do think Campbell has a better chance of sticking around longer than Kliff. But Campbell still hasn't proved himself yet.

Yea, majority of blame should be going on Keim for pretty much sabotaging the roster for the past 5 years.

 

[CardNots]

Yea, majority of blame should be going on Keim for pretty much sabotaging the roster for the past 5 years.

The bottom line, sums up my gut feelings about grasping for straws

i’m ready to move on, kyler determines the path forward

kyler is the only reason this team is newsworthy

we ride with the horse we got until we saddle a new one

 

[Stout]

I am not selling anything. I've told what I think the plan is, and it means doing an analyses of the roster this year and begin the rebuild nest year. If that is the plan then FA this was executed perfectly to the plan. Or at lease perfectly to their plan. IMO

*shudder*

 

[Snakester]

It all hangs on the QB. If Murray gets religion and turns into a productive, somewhat durable QB then they could compete with good FAs and a great draft. If they conclude they have to start over and draft a QB they likely won‘t be competitive in 2024. I think you can stop worrying about the record and focus on the QB play.

Exactly! It doesn’t matter what Monti or anyone else does. It’s all on Murray. If he plays well we win. If he doesn’t we lose. I personally think we will be drafting another quarterback next year unless Clayton Tune is the next Brock Purdy. Plus Murray can’t stay healthy for an entire season.

 

[DVontel]

It doesn’t matter what Monti or anyone else does.

He’s the General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals. It absolutely matters what Monti does or doesn’t do.

 

[DVontel]

I always get AZ Native & Snakester mixed up, lol. Didn’t even realize that was Snakester until now.

 

[daves]

Mike Sando devoted part of Monday's "Pick Six" column to a section titled, "Are the Cardinals the new Lions? Jonathan Gannon’s path starting to resemble Dan Campbell’s". Excerpts:

Here’s what the Jonathan Gannon-coached Arizona Cardinals have in common with the Dan Campbell-coached Detroit Lions.
Gannon, hired before the 2023 season, had a 5-16 record through his first 21 games. He has a 5-1 record since then, beating the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins (with Tua Tagovailoa), Chicago Bears and New York Jets. The last two victories, over the Bears and Jets, were by a 60-15 combined mark. Arizona could be turning a corner.

Campbell started 4-16-1 in his first 21 games with the Lions and has gone 28-11 since then.

The similarities do not stop there:

- Campbell was mocked early in his tenure for saying he wanted his team, after getting knocked down, to “bite a kneecap off” on the way back up. Gannon was mocked early in his tenure for a “cringe” pep talk in which he asked players if they had taken the bus to work, then informed them he was “looking for f—— killers.”

- Both coaches’ starting quarterbacks had played well enough previously to earn top-of-market contracts, before faltering enough to see their reputations bottom out.

- Both coaches work with general managers poached from Super Bowl teams.

- Both coaches trusted first-time coordinators on both sides of the ball. We’ve heard lots about Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and more lately about his defensive counterpart, Aaron Glenn. If Arizona keeps winning, we’ll hear more about offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, 37, and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, 31.

- Both coaches took over historically losing franchises and started poorly enough to hear “same old Lions” and “same old Cardinals” without having anything substantive to say in rebuttal until well into their second seasons. Gannon’s 5-16 mark was tied for the eighth-worst through 21 games for any coach hired since 2000. Campbell was 4-19-1 with Detroit before turning things around.


Murray’s mobility differentiates Arizona from Detroit, opening different ways to win games. Think Seattle during the Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson years a decade ago, or even the Steelers with Wilson now, to an extent.

“They are a physical team,” an exec said of Arizona. “They are not the prettiest team, but they run the ball, they hit on defense and they have a quarterback who is going to run around and make something happen. You can win a lot of games that way.”