The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Dback Jon]

Any thoughts or predictions on how team Trump will affect the markets over the next few years? Bullish or bearish? Best to plan ahead.

If Trump gets his way, you’re looking at a Dow cut in half and a global recession

 

[Russ Smith]

Any thoughts or predictions on how team Trump will affect the markets over the next few years? Bullish or bearish? Best to plan ahead.

Feel bad for her but she keeps making the same mistake, I will wait a few days to see if it goes up. It was at 600 when the first story came out, then it did the 10 to 1 split and it's now at 18 so it's lost almost 75% of the value since the first story hit. It was briefly at 1000 so absolutely staggering loss.

 

[Russ Smith]

Well... my own view is that his plans for Tariffs will produce increased prices on goods sold in the US. And given the fact that job & wage growth is forecasted to slow and fall short of levels we've seen over the past 18-24 months, given that our economy is predominantly driven by consumers - we are likely to see sub-par growth over the next 4 years, if not a recession tossed in for good measure.
Further, Trump's tax cuts for the rich and for corporations will exacerbate the deficit. An exploding deficit will cause the government to have to borrow even more, which will therefore explode the current debt level...

All of the above and more paint a meh at best picture for the markets with the very real potential for a nasty down draft at some point during Trump's tenure...

My guess is he'll do whatever he can to keep the markets high because that benefits his donors, but yeah eventually if he causes inflation and hurts GDP, it's going to impact the markets too

 

[Yuma]

Feel bad for her but she keeps making the same mistake, I will wait a few days to see if it goes up. It was at 600 when the first story came out, then it did the 10 to 1 split and it's now at 18 so it's lost almost 75% of the value since the first story hit. It was briefly at 1000 so absolutely staggering loss.

She got stopped a few times from selling by the circumstances. Trading halted on the stock, etc. Some of it was out of her control.

 

[Russ Smith]

She got stopped a few times from selling by the circumstances. Trading halted on the stock, etc. Some of it was out of her control.

no they have windows they're allowed to sell in and she's been in the window several times but she keeps thinking it will go back up to where it was before so she's waiting and it just keeps falling.

She knows now. I told her at 600 to sell it all and she said no I'm waiting for 800 again. I kept telling her unless the story is a complete lie, and it's clearly not, there's no compelling reason for the stock to go up.
They're in danger now of delisting because they haven't filed all the required stuff because their accounting firm resigned

 

[Yuma]

no they have windows they're allowed to sell in and she's been in the window several times but she keeps thinking it will go back up to where it was before so she's waiting and it just keeps falling.

She knows now. I told her at 600 to sell it all and she said no I'm waiting for 800 again. I kept telling her unless the story is a complete lie, and it's clearly not, there's no compelling reason for the stock to go up.
They're in danger now of delisting because they haven't filed all the required stuff because their accounting firm resigned

When the Great Recession hit Northern Nevada in late 2007, people did that with houses. They would list at a price 10,000 over market. We would advise cut your price by 15,000 to get ahead of the market and sell before your neighbors. They would refuse and drop 5,000. The Market would drop 10,000 in weeks. They would decide to drop another 5,000. Again, the market would drop another $10,000. (So in total $20,000 down) So they are STILL 10,000 above market. They would ride that all the way down. Some would lose hundreds of thousands, or their whole house completely in foreclosure. It's human nature.

 

[Rivercard]

My guess is he'll do whatever he can to keep the markets high because that benefits his donors, but yeah eventually if he causes inflation and hurts GDP, it's going to impact the markets too

After a quick honeymoon the day after the election, the markets have been on a down streak. Are Trump's insane nominations already causing uncertainty and skittishness?

 

[Russ Smith]

After a quick honeymoon the day after the election, the markets have been on a down streak. Are Trump's insane nominations already causing uncertainty and skittishness?

I think it was largely due to the CPI numbers. It basically reinforced the notion that we're still in a bit of risk, inflation isn't completely under control so they still have to be careful about interest rates.

The election thing IMO was more about uncertainty, I think if Harris had won the markets would have gone up too. I think people just get nervous until they knew and once they knew it went up.

When Trump won in 2016 the futures were way off but by the end of the next day the markets were actually up.

 

[Rivercard]

I think it was largely due to the CPI numbers. It basically reinforced the notion that we're still in a bit of risk, inflation isn't completely under control so they still have to be careful about interest rates.

The election thing IMO was more about uncertainty, I think if Harris had won the markets would have gone up too. I think people just get nervous until they knew and once they knew it went up.

When Trump won in 2016 the futures were way off but by the end of the next day the markets were actually up.

True, there's a lot at play.

We recently inherited a sizable amount so I'm ready to retire soon, but scared to death Trump will kick us in the financial nuts with his insanity. Don't want to keep a large amount in high interest cash funds, but have to decide how to best protect my family.

 

[Russ Smith]

True, there's a lot at play.

We recently inherited a sizable amount so I'm ready to retire soon, but scared to death Trump will kick us in the financial nuts with his insanity. Don't want to keep a large amount in high interest cash funds, but have to decide how to best protect my family.

Didn't inherit but I'm in the same boat. I retired Aug 2nd, my plan depended on certain assumptions one being that we could eventually get Covered California to bridge the gap until 65 for Medicare. Now in theory both of those are in jeopardy. I turn 59 Nov 28 so I'm on Cobra now with a plan to flip to Covered California in 2025. the broker I've been talking to is telling me there's no way Trump will kill Obamacare, he's a Republican and he said most of his clients, in California(he's apparently in Carmel) are Republicans and he said there's just no way they'd go for Trump killing it.

But I think given his job he has to assume that, if Trump does what Project 2025 wants, changes lots for us.

The retirement plan I am on also included the 4% rule so in theory if I could make 5% in interest from CD's etc, and only spend 4%, I'd be fine. But with interest rates dropping that's not the case anymore.

One thing I've learned quickly 3 months in, it's 100% true what they say, one of the hardest things in retiring is mentally handling that you have to spend your nest egg now and that means it will go down in value over time. it's so hard to intentionally spend more than you're going to make in a month

 

[Yuma]

One thing I've learned quickly 3 months in, it's 100% true what they say, one of the hardest things in retiring is mentally handling that you have to spend your nest egg now and that means it will go down in value over time. it's so hard to intentionally spend more than you're going to make in a month

IDK if you are referring to mandatory withdrawals. You don't have to "spend" it of course. I plan that if we have our spending under control in retirement, that I will reinvest a portion of my mandated withdrawals. I will keep investing until I die. Why not? If I won't need the money, my kids or grandkids will.

 

[dscher]

If Trump gets his way, you’re looking at a Dow cut in half and a global recession

This. At the very least.

 

[Russ Smith]

IDK if you are referring to mandatory withdrawals. You don't have to "spend" it of course. I plan that if we have our spending under control in retirement, that I will reinvest a portion of my mandated withdrawals. I will keep investing until I die. Why not? If I won't need the money, my kids or grandkids will.

no I mean literally daily spending. It is now coming out of savings or retirement savings and it's so hard to remind myself that was the point of saving all these years. That I don't HAVE to keep my spending at a level where the principal doesn't go down.

It would be great if I bring in more than I spend and if the market is up I do, but as long as I stay within my means I can spend, and if the principal goes down it's just fine.

But it's very hard to get used to that

 

[dscher]

Booming economy

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[Russ Smith]

Looks like I should have bought SMCI when it was beat down. They hired BDO to do their accounting and went u 30%. They are back at 35 now, friend sold at 33.

Still way off where they were before all the bad news but at least they are out of the woods for delisting

 

[dscher]

least they are out of the woods for delisting

Their story is far from being over.

 

[Yuma]

Super Micro November story on Barron's.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/super-micro-stock-volatile-november-d0722899?mod=mw_quote_news