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  1. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    I've now looked at 40 years of drafts (1970 through 2009) and there were 73 players who were repeat all-stars among 200 players drafted in the top 5 (36.5%). It's important to point out that among those 73 players were quite a few two-time-and-done all-stars, especially in the 90's, who would...
  2. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    To summarize, the points I was trying to make are: The probability of drafting a perennial all-star, even with a very high draft pick, is still relatively low (even with a top-5 pick, a team is more than twice as likely to draft someone who won't become a perennial all-star) The likelihood that...
  3. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    Yes, which is rather sad. So that would imply that not many players even get a chance to win a title in their careers, which is true. Of the 100 players drafted in top 5 over the last 20 years, I counted 15 who won NBA rings. I might have missed someone, but those are: Player | started...
  4. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    Huh? I said in the last 20 years and you list most players drafted in the 70's and 80's. Things have changed since then. The other players you list weren't drafted in top 5. Only Wade and Duncan qualifies. And there's no such thing as "only technically not top 5". In retrospect you can...
  5. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    The point is not that successful teams are built primarily via one method or another, but that one method involves a lot more luck and uncertainty than the other. Teams that did successfully built via draft were successful not because they chose to build via draft but because they were lucky...
  6. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    That's not the point really. Obviously the higher the pick, the better the odds. The better question is whether a team is more likely to land a perennial all-star via draft or via other means (trade, free agency)? With a draft pick, even a very high draft pick, you are mostly just gambling...
  7. Griffin

    From a top-5 pick to perennial all-star

    When a player is drafted in the top-5, there is an immediate assumption that this player will become a major superstar and a cornerstone for the team that drafts him. But how often does it actually happen? Repeat all-stars drafted in top-5 between 2000 and 2009 (50 picks total): 2000: none...
  8. Griffin

    The Woman in Black

    Rather generic, predictable haunted house/town movie. 65% on RT is way too high, imo.
  9. Griffin

    The Hunger Games

    I really liked the movie. But I haven't read the book. So I started reading the book after watching the movie, and I can see why people are complaining. If you haven't read any of the books yet, I think the best approach is to watch the movie and then read the book if you want the back...
  10. Griffin

    In the Mood for Love

    I haven't seen this one, but I did watch Kar-wai's next film ("2046") and it was also non-linear and confusing.
  11. Griffin

    NBA Cores

    Perhaps. It was Zach Randolph not Anthony Randolph. But anyway, being a core player for one team doesn't necessarily mean that player would automatically be a core player for another. For example, Marc Gasol was certainly considered a major part of Memphis' future when he was acquired and he...
  12. Griffin

    NBA Cores

    I would define a core player loosely as a key asset that a team is built around or is planning to build around. It may be an established all-star or it may be a highly valued young player with all-star potential. He doesn't have to be a franchise player yet, but should have that potential...
  13. Griffin

    Who will be traded next?

    Personally I'm not anxious to get rid of Frye, I'm just afraid that there won't be any minutes left for him in the rotation after he gets back from injury. Scola, Morris, Beasley, Gortat and O'Neal will easily cover PF & C positions assuming O'Neal can play. And I think there is still a...
  14. Griffin

    So, how good is this team going to be?

    Suns predicted to finish next to last in conference with a 30-52 record: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8273800/2012-nba-summer-forecast-west-standings The Suns have only had three seasons in their 45-year history with more losses than the predicted number.
  15. Griffin

    Who will be traded next?

    Frye is also my guess, but the fact that he's injured will make trading him more difficult. Once he gets back though, he may find himself out of rotation. Then again, if O'Neal can't stay healthy, then Frye will get plenty of minutes at center.
  16. Griffin

    Who will be traded next?

    Which of the current Suns players will be traded next? For this purpose, sign-and-trades only count if player is RFA, but the Suns won't have any RFA's next summer. Also remember Scola can't be traded until next summer. Recent Suns players traded away: Lopez for Wes Johnson & 1st round pick...
  17. Griffin

    Untitled Michael J. Fox Comedy Series

    I stopped watching Spin City after he left. Last time I saw him on tv was his cameo on Curb Your Enthusiasm. Will definitely check it out.
  18. Griffin

    Dexter (Showtime)

    I'm putting this in spoilers for those of you who didn't watch and don't want to watch the previews:
  19. Griffin

    Mad Men (AMC)

    Just finally got around to watching the last season. Very impressive. Could have been the strongest season yet. If Breaking Bad is the best show on TV, Mad Men isn't far behind, imo. The writing is excellent.
  20. Griffin

    James Harden interested in joining the Suns next summer

    Ibaka signs a 4-year/$48M extension. At $12M/year, that's not quite the max but well in the territory of what was expected. So now, going into 2013/14 when the new LT rules kick in, the Thunder will have $54M committed to four players, not counting any other players with guaranteed money. If...
  21. Griffin

    Who will lead the Suns in scoring?

    No, the more surprising part is that our second leading scorer averaged 12.7 ppg which is what you might expect from Dudley (in fact, that was a career high for him), but not from a team's second leading scorer, especially when the team's leading scorer averages just over 15 ppg. If Dudley...
  22. Griffin

    So, how good is this team going to be?

    I'm referring to the period when Dragic entered the starting lineup, which was the last 26 games. In that span, the Rockets went 13-13. But I didn't say I expect them to be a .500 team. I said that it's a possibility, and compared the roster to Houston as example. It could very well be that...
  23. Griffin

    Who will lead the Suns in scoring?

    Yeah, which is really indicative of the lack of scorers on this team since Amare's departure. Brown was 4th. I'm going to vote for Scola and predict 17 ppg.
  24. Griffin

    Who will lead the Suns in scoring?

    Who will be the Suns' leading scorer this coming season? (Must play at least 50% of games to qualify). Also try to predict his scoring average. I think this is a first year in quite some time where this is really had to predict. Even last two years without Amare, either Nash or Gortat...
  25. Griffin

    So, how good is this team going to be?

    This isn't quite accurate. I just looked at the numbers and they went 10-7 in January with Martin averaging 20.9 ppg. But they went 9-6 in February with Martin averaging only 13.7 ppg. It didn't seem to make much difference in their record whether he was scoring, not scoring, or not playing...
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