Why the Webber trade makes sense
By John Hollinger, ESPN Insider
John Hollinger Archive
The Sacramento Kings' trade of Chris Webber for three role players Wednesday sent mouths agape throughout the NBA. He's been on the block all year, so his being traded wasn't the surprise – it was the slim pickings Sacramento received in return that caused the shockwaves.
[size=-1]Chris Webber[/size]
[size=-2]Power Forward
Philadelphia 76ers[/size]
[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]46[/size][size=-2]21.3[/size][size=-2]9.7[/size][size=-2]5.5[/size][size=-2].449[/size][size=-2].799[/size]The ransom the Kings received for Webber and salary ballast Matt Barnes and Michael Bradley was the frontcourt trio of Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner. Suffice it to say nobody is sitting around the watercooler in Sacramento saying, "Oh my God, you mean we got Thomas and Williamson!" (Incidentally, Wednesday wasn't exactly a banner day for Kings fans. They also found out a deal for a new arena fell through, which means we're one step closer to seeing a basketball arena next to The Palms in Vegas.) You might think the Webber deal was a salary dump, but that wasn't the case. Webber is owed nearly $62 million over the next three seasons, while the Kings' new trio will receive a similar amount. Sure, the Kings will have $6 million more to play with in 2007, when Williamson's contract expires, but that's a small benefit that's way off in the future. It hardly seems worth trading a star forward merely for that.
So, why in heaven's name would the Kings do this? Kings GM Geoff Petrie is the best in the business, so there has to be a reason here ... um, right?
Fear not, Kings fans. From Sacramento's end, I can come up with three legitimate reasons for consummating this deal: defense, depth and Peja Stojakovic. If you add up the advantages, the deal no longer looks so one-sided. Let's run through each:
Defense
Webber wasn't much of a defensive player, even before he hurt his knee in the 2003 playoffs. Now he's a phantom. Webber still has the size and long arms to bother shots if he gets close enough to a shooter, but in help situations he provides about as much support as a wet piece of bread. The telltale sign is the dip in blocked shots since the injury – Webber averaged 0.7 this year and 0.9 in his brief cameo last year, or about half his career average of 1.6.
[size=-1]Kenny Thomas[/size]
[size=-2]Power Forward
Sacramento Kings[/size]
[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]47[/size][size=-2]11.3[/size][size=-2]6.6[/size][size=-2]1.6[/size][size=-2].456[/size][size=-2].798[/size]The Kings aren't exactly awash in great defensive players who can help overcome his weaknesses, either. As a result, Webber is a huge liability, representing a major reason the Kings' defense is below average (they give up 104.0 points per 100 possessions, ranking 20th in the NBA). His on-court vs. off-court numbers on 82games.com bear this out. The Kings are about 5.3 points per 100 possessions worse when C-Webb is on the court. Those numbers can be deceiving if a player's backup is a brilliant defender, but in this case we're essentially comparing Webber to Darius Songaila. Thus, replacing Webber with just an average defender – whether it's Songaila or Thomas – should improve the Kings' defense by a couple of points per game.
Depth
As good as Sacramento's starting five has been, the bench has been killing the Kings. This is especially true in the frontcourt, where Songaila has been the only productive reserve. Behind Stojakovic, the Kings had to turn to Barnes, a scrappy hustler who makes a great 12th man but brings little to the table in this big a role. He averages just 9.2 points per 40 minutes and isn't even doing it efficiently – he's a 41 percent shooter. At backup center, Greg Ostertag also has disappointed (please try to contain your surprise). His offensive contribution was always meager, but now it's extinct, so he's rarely left the bench of late.
[size=-1]Corliss Williamson[/size]
[size=-2]Forward
Sacramento Kings[/size]
[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]48[/size][size=-2]10.8[/size][size=-2]3.7[/size][size=-2]0.9[/size][size=-2].465[/size][size=-2].788[/size]Replace those two with Williamson and Skinner, respectively (Thomas replaces Webber, obviously) and the depth picture improves considerably. The Big Nasty is a former Sixth-Man award winner who averages 19.6 points per 40 minutes, filling the need for bench scoring. As for Skinner, he's been even worse than Ostertag this year, but he has played only 246 minutes. Look at his past two seasons and you'll see a guy who shoots around 50 percent and puts up 14 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. Since it's rare for a healthy center to suddenly lose it at age 28, I'm fairly confident Skinner will return to a reasonable facsimile of his former self if he gets the minutes.
So if Williamson replaces Barnes for 15 minutes a night, and Skinner replaces Ostertag for 15 minutes a night, does that make up for replacing Webber with Thomas? Probably not, but it certainly closes the gap.
Peja Stojakovic
[size=-1]Peja Stojakovic[/size]
[size=-2]Small Forward
Sacramento Kings[/size]
[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]45[/size][size=-2]19.7[/size][size=-2]4.2[/size][size=-2]1.9[/size][size=-2].443[/size][size=-2].920[/size]The Kings obviously are making a huge offensive sacrifice in trading Webber for three role players. While the deal will help their bench and defense, Sacramento has only one real hope for making the trade pay off. That would be if the decline in production at power forward is offset by increased output from Stojakovic. Ever since Webber returned from his knee injury last season, Stojakovic has been in a funk. An MVP candidate at the two-thirds mark of last season, Peja disappeared as Webber dominated the ball down the stretch. That trend has continued this year – Peja's scoring average is down nearly five points a game, and his 44.3 shooting percentage is his lowest since his rookie year. It's hardly a state secret that the two have been unhappy with each other, and at times it seemed as if Webber was playing keep-away from Peja on the court.
For evidence of how refreshed Stojakovic might feel sans Webber, look at the four games this season when Stojakovic played and Webber didn't. Then compare it to the rest of his season:
With or Without You
PPG FG % RPG
With Webber 19.1 43.8 4.1
Without Webber 25.8 49.3 5.8
Sum it all up, and Sacramento's logic moves into focus. Defensively, whoever replaces Webber is almost guaranteed to be an improvement. Off the bench, the Kings were running short on bodies and should get a lift from their new trio of 76ers. And, perhaps most importantly, the Kings can hope the trade unleashes the Peja Stojakovic of old.
Those three advantages are in addition to the other risk the Kings avoided by making this deal – Webber's getting hurt (again). That risk now belongs to Philadelphia, and from the 76ers' point of view, that's the one potential fly in the ointment. Having thinned out their frontcourt to get Webber, they can't afford for him to be out of the lineup. (Yes, the Sixers also got Rodney Rogers on Thursday, but that won't be any help if he plays like he did in New Orleans.)
It's hard to fathom how Webber could be exchanged for three run-of-the-mill talents. But if you carefully analyze the deal from the Kings' perspective, it doesn't look like the epic fleecing it appeared to be at first glance. Considering Petrie was involved, we should have suspected that from the beginning.
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By John Hollinger, ESPN Insider
John Hollinger Archive
The Sacramento Kings' trade of Chris Webber for three role players Wednesday sent mouths agape throughout the NBA. He's been on the block all year, so his being traded wasn't the surprise – it was the slim pickings Sacramento received in return that caused the shockwaves.
[size=-1]Chris Webber[/size]
[size=-2]Power Forward
Philadelphia 76ers[/size]
You must be registered for see images attach
[size=-2]Profile[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]46[/size][size=-2]21.3[/size][size=-2]9.7[/size][size=-2]5.5[/size][size=-2].449[/size][size=-2].799[/size]The ransom the Kings received for Webber and salary ballast Matt Barnes and Michael Bradley was the frontcourt trio of Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner. Suffice it to say nobody is sitting around the watercooler in Sacramento saying, "Oh my God, you mean we got Thomas and Williamson!" (Incidentally, Wednesday wasn't exactly a banner day for Kings fans. They also found out a deal for a new arena fell through, which means we're one step closer to seeing a basketball arena next to The Palms in Vegas.) You might think the Webber deal was a salary dump, but that wasn't the case. Webber is owed nearly $62 million over the next three seasons, while the Kings' new trio will receive a similar amount. Sure, the Kings will have $6 million more to play with in 2007, when Williamson's contract expires, but that's a small benefit that's way off in the future. It hardly seems worth trading a star forward merely for that.
So, why in heaven's name would the Kings do this? Kings GM Geoff Petrie is the best in the business, so there has to be a reason here ... um, right?
Fear not, Kings fans. From Sacramento's end, I can come up with three legitimate reasons for consummating this deal: defense, depth and Peja Stojakovic. If you add up the advantages, the deal no longer looks so one-sided. Let's run through each:
Defense
Webber wasn't much of a defensive player, even before he hurt his knee in the 2003 playoffs. Now he's a phantom. Webber still has the size and long arms to bother shots if he gets close enough to a shooter, but in help situations he provides about as much support as a wet piece of bread. The telltale sign is the dip in blocked shots since the injury – Webber averaged 0.7 this year and 0.9 in his brief cameo last year, or about half his career average of 1.6.
[size=-1]Kenny Thomas[/size]
[size=-2]Power Forward
Sacramento Kings[/size]
You must be registered for see images attach
[size=-2]Profile[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]47[/size][size=-2]11.3[/size][size=-2]6.6[/size][size=-2]1.6[/size][size=-2].456[/size][size=-2].798[/size]The Kings aren't exactly awash in great defensive players who can help overcome his weaknesses, either. As a result, Webber is a huge liability, representing a major reason the Kings' defense is below average (they give up 104.0 points per 100 possessions, ranking 20th in the NBA). His on-court vs. off-court numbers on 82games.com bear this out. The Kings are about 5.3 points per 100 possessions worse when C-Webb is on the court. Those numbers can be deceiving if a player's backup is a brilliant defender, but in this case we're essentially comparing Webber to Darius Songaila. Thus, replacing Webber with just an average defender – whether it's Songaila or Thomas – should improve the Kings' defense by a couple of points per game.
Depth
As good as Sacramento's starting five has been, the bench has been killing the Kings. This is especially true in the frontcourt, where Songaila has been the only productive reserve. Behind Stojakovic, the Kings had to turn to Barnes, a scrappy hustler who makes a great 12th man but brings little to the table in this big a role. He averages just 9.2 points per 40 minutes and isn't even doing it efficiently – he's a 41 percent shooter. At backup center, Greg Ostertag also has disappointed (please try to contain your surprise). His offensive contribution was always meager, but now it's extinct, so he's rarely left the bench of late.
[size=-1]Corliss Williamson[/size]
[size=-2]Forward
Sacramento Kings[/size]
You must be registered for see images attach
[size=-2]Profile[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]48[/size][size=-2]10.8[/size][size=-2]3.7[/size][size=-2]0.9[/size][size=-2].465[/size][size=-2].788[/size]Replace those two with Williamson and Skinner, respectively (Thomas replaces Webber, obviously) and the depth picture improves considerably. The Big Nasty is a former Sixth-Man award winner who averages 19.6 points per 40 minutes, filling the need for bench scoring. As for Skinner, he's been even worse than Ostertag this year, but he has played only 246 minutes. Look at his past two seasons and you'll see a guy who shoots around 50 percent and puts up 14 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. Since it's rare for a healthy center to suddenly lose it at age 28, I'm fairly confident Skinner will return to a reasonable facsimile of his former self if he gets the minutes.
So if Williamson replaces Barnes for 15 minutes a night, and Skinner replaces Ostertag for 15 minutes a night, does that make up for replacing Webber with Thomas? Probably not, but it certainly closes the gap.
Peja Stojakovic
[size=-1]Peja Stojakovic[/size]
[size=-2]Small Forward
Sacramento Kings[/size]
You must be registered for see images attach
[size=-2]Profile[/size]2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS[size=-2]GM[/size][size=-2]PPG[/size][size=-2]RPG[/size][size=-2]APG[/size][size=-2]FG%[/size][size=-2]FT%[/size][size=-2]45[/size][size=-2]19.7[/size][size=-2]4.2[/size][size=-2]1.9[/size][size=-2].443[/size][size=-2].920[/size]The Kings obviously are making a huge offensive sacrifice in trading Webber for three role players. While the deal will help their bench and defense, Sacramento has only one real hope for making the trade pay off. That would be if the decline in production at power forward is offset by increased output from Stojakovic. Ever since Webber returned from his knee injury last season, Stojakovic has been in a funk. An MVP candidate at the two-thirds mark of last season, Peja disappeared as Webber dominated the ball down the stretch. That trend has continued this year – Peja's scoring average is down nearly five points a game, and his 44.3 shooting percentage is his lowest since his rookie year. It's hardly a state secret that the two have been unhappy with each other, and at times it seemed as if Webber was playing keep-away from Peja on the court.
For evidence of how refreshed Stojakovic might feel sans Webber, look at the four games this season when Stojakovic played and Webber didn't. Then compare it to the rest of his season:
With or Without You
PPG FG % RPG
With Webber 19.1 43.8 4.1
Without Webber 25.8 49.3 5.8
Sum it all up, and Sacramento's logic moves into focus. Defensively, whoever replaces Webber is almost guaranteed to be an improvement. Off the bench, the Kings were running short on bodies and should get a lift from their new trio of 76ers. And, perhaps most importantly, the Kings can hope the trade unleashes the Peja Stojakovic of old.
Those three advantages are in addition to the other risk the Kings avoided by making this deal – Webber's getting hurt (again). That risk now belongs to Philadelphia, and from the 76ers' point of view, that's the one potential fly in the ointment. Having thinned out their frontcourt to get Webber, they can't afford for him to be out of the lineup. (Yes, the Sixers also got Rodney Rogers on Thursday, but that won't be any help if he plays like he did in New Orleans.)
It's hard to fathom how Webber could be exchanged for three run-of-the-mill talents. But if you carefully analyze the deal from the Kings' perspective, it doesn't look like the epic fleecing it appeared to be at first glance. Considering Petrie was involved, we should have suspected that from the beginning.
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