2017-2018 Draft Prospects watch.

[Ronin]

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[Haunting]

Someone the Suns should stay away from as far as they possibly can.

Project with an attitude.

 

[hcsilla]

I don't think Young will go before Doncic unless it's Phoenix who selects him. They're the only team that will be in the top 5 that really needs a PG.

And Doncic is a PG.

BTW, I understand the enthusiasm toward Young but at this point Doncic is #1.

He is the best player of one of the top european teams at age of 19. There was not a player of his caliber at his age ever that entered to the draft.

 

[SirStefan32]

And Doncic is a PG.

BTW, I understand the enthusiasm toward Young but at this point Doncic is #1.

He is the best player of one of the top european teams at age of 19. There was not a player of his caliber at his age ever that entered to the draft.

For the benefit of those who don't know much about European Leagues, this is a REALLY big deal. Being the best player for Split, Partizan, etc is nice, but not really that difficult. Being the best player in powerhouses such as Real Madrid, Fenerbahce, CSKA, Panathinaikos, Olympiakos, etc is much more difficult and meaningful. One could make an argument that Real is probably the best team in Europe.

 

[Ronin]

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[Ronin]

Mark Deeks
@MarkDeeksNBA

You have to understand, assists are given out far less liberally in Euroleague play. Doncic's 10 assists last game is equal to like 74 NBA assists.

 

[hcsilla]

I saw the game, Doncic was the best player on the floor and he did things that you can rarely see even from seasoned veterans.

It is very hard to see Doncic fail on NBA level and only sky is the limit for him.

He is one of those rare prospects that both the floor and ceiling are very high of.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Doncic leads Euroleague in scoring per 40 minutes and is second in scoring per game. Euroleague has an index rating, which is similar to PER and is kept on the official Euroleague site. Not only does Doncic have the best index rating in all of Euroleague, but it's not even close.

Trae Young is dominating college basketball. Luka Doncic is dominating the number two league in the world...at the age of 18.

 

[Mainstreet]

So let's hope the Suns get Doncic or Young. The Suns would be very fortunate to be in this situation.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Doncic/Young

AND

Ayton/bagley

My dream offseason.

 

[SirStefan32]

Doncic/Young

AND

Ayton/bagley

My dream offseason.

Man, I'd be happy with one of those.

 

[elindholm]

Mark Deeks
@MarkDeeksNBA

You have to understand, assists are given out far less liberally in Euroleague play. Doncic's 10 assists last game is equal to like 74 NBA assists.

I read that the conversion is actually 23.8 to 1. For example, Bender's assist rate is comparable to Mark Jackson's, historically speaking.

 

[Errntknght]

I think we're going to be depending on luck in the draw but I did analysis of the remaining 46 games, assuming we had the same winning rate against sub 500 and >= 500 teams. We've had 17 games vs <500 and we also have 17 more. We won 10/17 so I assumed we win 10/17 again. >= 500 we had 19 game and won 3. Remaining we have 29 games vs those teams so we should win 4 or 5, with 5 being somewhat more likely. In that case our final record should be 27 or 28 wins translating to .329 or .341. Using the standings now there are only 3 teams below .329 and 5 teams below .341 but there are 2 & 3 teams quite close above those cut off points so 4 and 6 could easily happen. 29 total wins puts us at .354 and there are 9 teams below that now.

The big problem as I see it is that we are improving a little on both offense and defense so it seems unlikely that we will win less than 29 total games. Triano seems to be doing a good job in the end game, too, which can swing a few games our way. I also wouldn't be a bit surprised if some teams that are clearly out of the playoffs but ahead of us now start tanking in earnest, while I don't expect Triano to do that... look at how Memphis and the Clips sank like rocks.

 

[SirStefan32]

In all fairness, some of the other "bad" teams have turned it around.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think we're going to be depending on luck in the draw but I did analysis of the remaining 46 games, assuming we had the same winning rate against sub 500 and >= 500 teams. We've had 17 games vs <500 and we also have 17 more. We won 10/17 so I assumed we win 10/17 again. >= 500 we had 19 game and won 3. Remaining we have 29 games vs those teams so we should win 4 or 5, with 5 being somewhat more likely. In that case our final record should be 27 or 28 wins translating to .329 or .341. Using the standings now there are only 3 teams below .329 and 5 teams below .341 but there are 2 & 3 teams quite close above those cut off points so 4 and 6 could easily happen. 29 total wins puts us at .354 and there are 9 teams below that now.

The big problem as I see it is that we are improving a little on both offense and defense so it seems unlikely that we will win less than 29 total games. Triano seems to be doing a good job in the end game, too, which can swing a few games our way. I also wouldn't be a bit surprised if some teams that are clearly out of the playoffs but ahead of us now start tanking in earnest, while I don't expect Triano to do that... look at how Memphis and the Clips sank like rocks.

I agree with that but I think there will be some variables that stats can't predict right now. Like our Center rotation should change at the trade deadline. If we kept Monroe and Chandler, I'd be surprised. I can see us keeping Chandler but once Monroe is gone we'll look different when/if Chandler misses more games. He's too old to say he'll remain healthy and available for the rest of the year and the team has had no issue letting him miss games for personal reasons. That will effect the team more once Monroe is gone, especially if Williams isn't available yet.

I'd be surprised if that's the only move we make at the deadline as well. I think the team has learned some from last season and if they intend to tank hard after the All-Star break they'll look to trade players instead of sitting them. Overall I think your estimate of 28 wins sounds about right though.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I agree with that but I think there will be some variables that stats can't predict right now. Like our Center rotation should change at the trade deadline. If we kept Monroe and Chandler, I'd be surprised. I can see us keeping Chandler but once Monroe is gone we'll look different when/if Chandler misses more games. He's too old to say he'll remain healthy and available for the rest of the year and the team has had no issue letting him miss games for personal reasons. That will effect the team more once Monroe is gone, especially if Williams isn't available yet.

I'd be surprised if that's the only move we make at the deadline as well. I think the team has learned some from last season and if they intend to tank hard after the All-Star break they'll look to trade players instead of sitting them. Overall I think your estimate of 28 wins sounds about right though.

Teams around the league keep waiting for us to cut Monroe, I am convinced. But McD is being stubborn about it. He wants a return—even if it is a draft pick a few years down the road. He got burned on the Bledsoe trade and he wants to get something out of it. Good for him.

 

[Errntknght]

I suspect you're right about moving Monroe at the deadline. Len has been talking like he'd prefer to stay because he likes playing for Triano though it wouldn't be too surprising if someone outbid us for him next summer. Heck, for all I know they could make him an offer during this season and force our hand.
Don't forget they have Peters to call up from the G league if they're desperate - he could fill in at center quite capably as he's strong enough. If he shoots well from 3, he may be an improvement over
Monroe for this team.
What I'm wondering is who they could trade that could help us tank? Jackson, Chriss, Bender and Ulis are not the ones bouying the team up so trading one or two of them isn't going to help the tank. They won't trade Booker unless it improves the team and they seemingly won't trade Chandler unless he wants it. Len they can't trade unilaterally. House is just keeping Reed's roster spot warm. Trading TJ would help the tank but he's on a good contract and I don't think McD would make a losing trade - he might sacrifice TJ to get a prime draft pick this year but that would happen at draft time, not now. There's Dudley and Derrick Jones who are playing no active role, so trading them doesn't help the tank. That leaves Canaan and Daniels who are positive contributors so trading them would aid the tank. Trading Canaan would be tricky as we'd have to get a PG back - still it's a trade that could help us tank yet improve our PG position in the future.

 

[Hoop Head]

Teams around the league keep waiting for us to cut Monroe, I am convinced. But McD is being stubborn about it. He wants a return—even if it is a draft pick a few years down the road. He got burned on the Bledsoe trade and he wants to get something out of it. Good for him.

I'm glad McD's held his ground with Monroe, in terms of not just cutting him so a playoff contender could snag him for cheap. Monroe hasn't had any issues with how he's been used here either and has said all the right things to the press about how he just wants to play basketball and he's happy playing for the Suns. I'm sure he'd like to be used more but he's got it pretty good, starting in every other game and getting 25-30 minutes each time he does start. They aren't using him off the bench and lowering his averages, just giving him extra days off. I'm sure he's more aware of what the Suns intentions are for him than we fans are and he hasn't been a disturbance in the locker room at all. I haven't read anything about him having a bad attitude or being unhappy with how he's been used, he surely knows the plan for him for than we do also and as long as he's content that's all that matters right now. He's producing when called upon also, which is a plus.

I've read a few articles since the Bledsoe trade about how the Cavs planned on signing Monroe once the Suns waived him, expecting it to happen within a week of the Bledsoe trade. I'm not a fan of how the NBA has changed in that regard, with veterans being bought out whenever they're acquired by bad teams in trades and then signed for the minimum by contenders. It seems to happen every year with 3-4 players, at least. McD has been clear since the Suns acquired Monroe that they weren't looking to buy him out but I still saw articles like that up until they waived Derrick Jones to make room for Mike James, which was early December. I didn't see anything come up recently when the Suns needed to clear another roster spot for Canaan either. More people thought they'd trade Monroe, or Chandler, than buy him out. That shows how much the thought process had changed in the last 3-4 weeks regarding how Monroe's tenure in Phoenix would be handled.

The Suns could be planning on packaging him with another player as well. I know he could be traded at any time on his own but since he was already traded this season the Suns needed to wait 60 days after he was acquired in order to trade him again in a deal that included more players from the Suns. The date he could be included with others in a trade is January 6th. The trade deadline is February 8th this year, this is the first year it's been moved ahead of the All-Star break, so we'll see what happens then. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a trade made in early January though. With the trade deadline moving up I think teams will be active in trades sooner than later this year.

 

[Hoop Head]

I suspect you're right about moving Monroe at the deadline. Len has been talking like he'd prefer to stay because he likes playing for Triano though it wouldn't be too surprising if someone outbid us for him next summer. Heck, for all I know they could make him an offer during this season and force our hand.
Don't forget they have Peters to call up from the G league if they're desperate - he could fill in at center quite capably as he's strong enough. If he shoots well from 3, he may be an improvement over
Monroe for this team.
What I'm wondering is who they could trade that could help us tank? Jackson, Chriss, Bender and Ulis are not the ones bouying the team up so trading one or two of them isn't going to help the tank. They won't trade Booker unless it improves the team and they seemingly won't trade Chandler unless he wants it. Len they can't trade unilaterally. House is just keeping Reed's roster spot warm. Trading TJ would help the tank but he's on a good contract and I don't think McD would make a losing trade - he might sacrifice TJ to get a prime draft pick this year but that would happen at draft time, not now. There's Dudley and Derrick Jones who are playing no active role, so trading them doesn't help the tank. That leaves Canaan and Daniels who are positive contributors so trading them would aid the tank. Trading Canaan would be tricky as we'd have to get a PG back - still it's a trade that could help us tank yet improve our PG position in the future.

We don't have Derrick Jones anymore, not that trading him would do anything. He has no value, that's why he cleared waivers and the Suns signed him to their G-League team. I don't think they can trade Canaan since he was just signed and he's on a minimum contract. They'd have to wait at least 45 days after signing a player in order to trade him anyways but being a minimum contract I don't think he can be traded at all. Trading him would scream TANK though and send the wrong message to other players on this team.

Trading Warren would help the tank but be an awful move for the Suns overall. It would only be to tank and while I understand why some want to tank, you don't give up your 2nd best player for the chance at more pingpong balls, especially with the Suns luck in the lottery, or when you consider he just signed a very favorable 4 year extension. That would send the wrong message to other players on the team and fans. Trading him during the draft is different, then they'll know what the return is, but midseason would be a big mistake. Giving up their 24 year old starting SF who is averaging 19 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and shooting 47% and is signed on a team friendly contract for the chance at more pingpong balls though? No way. That would be one of the worst trades in Suns history. There is no way they could sign someone in FA who could produce the same amount, is as young, for close to that price. That should be enough reason to pass on that idea. If he could be packaged with one of the Suns picks to help them move up then it should be considered but definitely not done hastily.


The only players they can trade that would help the tank right now are Len and maybe Troy Daniels. Since there isn't much of a chance Len resigns here it may not be a bad move to explore their options there. He'd have to approve any trade but if he was going somewhere he'd start I think he'd be fine with it. Trading him would also be a tough sell to the team but not nearly the same as Warren or Canaan. Len won't be here next year and getting something for him now would be the reasoning to sell the team and fans on but I could see it hurting morale overall. Daniels has helped them win in Booker's absence but his minutes will be reduced with Booker back. Reed may take some of his minutes when he's healthy also. I doubt the Suns could get much in return for him, but if it's for the tank I guess that doesn't matter. He's under contract for next year also and should be kept around since he's signed for cheap but with a healthy Reed and whoever we add in the draft, I'd be surprised if he sees many minutes beyond this season if he's kept on the roster.

They need to ride it out. I know that doesn't seem fun but there is very little the Suns can do to help them tank. They can sit Monroe and Chandler for an extended period but Len is playing well enough that that might not hurt them much, if at all. Sitting players is basically the only thing they can do and since they only have young players getting minutes right now, sitting them would hurt their development which is more important than anything else going forward.

 

[Ronin]

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[ColdPickleNachos]

Interesting matchup tonight in the Kansas-Texas game. Mo Bamba vs. Udoka Azubuike.

Azubuike has surprisingly little buzz (I think because most of his appeal is just being huge and moving well) but he's shooting 78% on the season!! That's for nearly 16 points per game for Kansas. Will be interesting to see how he handles Bamba and vice versa.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Bamba with 22 points, 15 boards, and 8 blocks vs. Kansas. Wow! Some of these blocks were unreal.

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[Hoop Head]

Can't wait for March Madness this year to see some of these players play against real competition. The conference championships should be really good also. I've been surprised that the top 5 prospects have stayed the top 5 for the most part. Nobody has fallen because of their own play but Trey Young has worked his way into that conversation.

All mocks have some combination of Ayton, Bamba, Porter, Bagley, Young, and Doncic going 1-6 and it's been that way for the last month. I know the other 5 have been the top 5 though since the 2017 draft took place. I'm a little surprised Young has moved up so high on some though, he is now #3 on NBADraft.net and #4 by Bleacher Report. Even if he sucks for the rest of the year I can't see him falling out of the top 7. Saxton may pass him but he should stay up there. Ayton is still projected to be the #1 pick on all of the mock's I've seen also, which isn't much of a surprise since he's delivered and no matter how many times some sort of Bowie/Jordan or Oden/Durant situation happens it seems GM's will continue to take the big over the wing.

Bleacher Report has the top 8 going like this for their final mock of 2017...

1. Ayton to the Hawks
2. Doncic to the Mavericks
3. Bagley to the Grizzlies
4. Young to the Magic
5. Porter to the Kings
6. Bamba to the Bulls
7. Jaren Jackson to the 76'ers (w/Lakers pick)
8. Sexton to the Suns

Here is a link to their's for the complete 1st round. They have write ups on all selections also...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...fore-the-new-year-trae-youngs-stock-is-rising

Of course picking 7 or 8 would suck in a 6 player draft but lucking out some with the 76'ers taking Jackson instead of Sexton would be a plus. Sexton has put up good numbers and is probably the best player outside of the top 6 right now.

 

[Hoop Head]

Here is how NBADraft.net has it right now, with the Suns picking 10th. I hate to say it but seeing the Suns fall that low makes me want to tank.

Here is a link to theirs but they update their's more without warning. You need to click on the players to see their write-ups for them.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft

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[Phrazbit]

Here is how NBADraft.net has it right now, with the Suns picking 10th. I hate to say it but seeing the Suns fall that low makes me want to tank.

Here is a link to theirs but they update their's more without warning. You need to click on the players to see their write-ups for them.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft

You must be registered for see images attach

How do we tank? Booker is so good that he is going to beat crap teams almost on his own. It's not like Dudley or Chandler are winning us games. We have the "problem" of winning games with a bunch of guys who are in their early 20s.

The schedule getting tougher will bring us down a bit, but outside of that we're going to have to pray to the lotto gods. I still think we finish around 5th and if we finish there we can package stuff and move up.

I maintain, Bamba scares me. Yeah, he can block shots but the guy is a rail and I don't see explosiveness or much skill in his game, instead he's just really really tall and long. Maybe he becomes another Rudy Gobert but when I watch him all I can think of is Hasheem Thabeet.