2019 NBA Playoff Discussion

[Hoop Head]

Thought I'd get a playoff thread going. I know the Suns aren't in it but there are plenty of ex-Suns around the league to root for as well as some players to root for or against that can impact the free agent market this summer.

I'll list all of the 1st round matchups below. The winners of the #1 vs #8 series will face the winners of the #4 vs #5 series and the #2 vs #7 series will face the winners of the #3 vs #6 series. I've listed them in that order so you can see potential second round matchups. All series are best of 7 games and the higher seeded team has homecourt advantage for every first round matchup this year.

Out West this is how the first round looks....

#1 Warriors vs #8 Clippers
#4 Rockets vs #5 Jazz

#2 Nuggets vs #7 Spurs
#3 Blazers vs #6 Thunder


Here is how things will look in the East...

#1 Bucks vs #8 Pistons
#4 Celtics vs #5 Pacers

#2 Raptors vs #7 Magic
#3 76ers vs #6 Nets

Thought I'd add that the Bucks had the best record in the league and will have homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, regardless of who they play. The Raptors finished with a better record than any team in the West so if they make it to the NBA Finals then they would have homecourt advantage throughout the Finals as well. I think that will be very important and help whichever team makes it out of the East. That gives both the Bucks and Raptors some help if they do make it that far.

Any talk, predictions, whatever is welcome. I'll put my predictions in a separate post.

 

[Hoop Head]

First round I think could be hard for some teams, we'll see some good series on both sides.

Warriors over the Clippers in 4, I don't see the Clippers being able to keep up with the Warriors at all. I don't know if Steph will be available right away, I heard he rolled his ankle in the last game but even without Steph I don't think they'll have any trouble sending the Clippers home.

Rockets over Jazz in 6. If the Jazz had homecourt I'd like their chances more but James Harden is unstoppable right now. Utah has a good defense but it's strength is their interior defense vs their perimeter defense and Harden can light them up from the perimeter all game. This series needs to end quick for the Rockets to have a chance at toppling Golden State in the second round. I bet the Warriors are glad the Rockets will face the Jazz.

Nuggets over Spurs in 7. This could go either way. Homecourt will help Denver a lot since they have a real advantage to their homecourt with the elevation and San Antonio is also a bit older but Denver's rotation players don't have playoff experience. Only Paul Millsap, Will Barton, and Mason Plumlee have playoff experience. IT does too but he has been on the edge of their rotation. Their primary players like Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, and Nikola Jokic have never been to the playoffs and cutting their teeth against San Antonio is almost unfair. Pop will coach the Spurs to a win or two on his own but I think homecourt for Denver is too much for the old Spurs.

Thunder over Blazers in 5. This would be a different series if Nurkic didn't get hurt. His absence will hurt Portland, a lot. I think this is the year for OKC to make a run. Paul George seems to take over on offense more than anyone has with Westbrook since KD has been gone and Westbrook helps him get going more than he would did for Durant. Steven Adams should have a good series going against Kanter for Portland. Lillard and McCollum will win 1 game for Portland but OKC will take them out sooner than later.

The East's first round is easier to predict, I think, the difference in talent from the higher seed to lower seed is more obvious. I highly doubt any series goes to 7 in the East, the only one that might hit 6 is the Celtics vs Pacers but I don't know if that will even last that long.


Bucks over Pistons in 4. The Bucks are on a roll and will stomp on the Pistons. There is little travel in this series also so going to Detroit for games 3 & 4 won't be much of an issue. I'm a little surprised the Pistons made the playoffs but I don't think Griffin and Drummond will be able to do much against the Bucks, they're just too deep for Detroit to handle and I think the Pistons don't have much in terms of backcourt talent to matchup with the Bucks either.

Celtics over Pacers in 5. I think the injury to Marcus Smart will be a small blessing for the Celtics because it allows the rotation to be a little smaller and allows everyone to get a little more playing time. I think the Celtics will finally play like the team people expected they would be headed into the season. How the Pacers have continued winning without Oladipo is impressive but the playoffs are a different animal. Oladipo will be missed here, bad.

Raptors over Magic in 5. Toronto doesn't need Lowry to step up in the playoffs like in years past and if they can keep their other guys relatively healthy they should have a pretty easy series against the Magic, who are pretty young but they do have some good talent. The Magic lacking a quality PG will hurt them this series though. I'll give Orlando 1 game because I think the Raptors will be on cruise control for this series and that will hurt them at some point.

76ers over Nets in 4. I think the Sixers are too deep, the Nets are too young, and the Sixers are also a bit too big for the Nets to matchup with. If the Sixers stay healthy they will sweep the Nets but if any of their big 4 goes down, or Redick, then they might drop a game. They need Embiid, Simmons, Butler, and Harris to be healthy and productive. Harris is the only undersized starter but I don't think that's an issue with Embiid inside and other teams not using their PG to guard Simmons most of the time.


I won't get into future rounds predictions yet.

 

[Hoop Head]

Yesterday
Nets upset the Sixers 111-102
Embiid's knees are giving him trouble, he was hobbled but played. Who knows when or if he'll get healthy this postseason. I thought they'd get past the Nets without needing him and maybe they would have if he sat completely but his limited play seemed to be a distraction. He missed five 3's and had 22 points and 15 boards but he played outside much more than usual.

Magic upset the Raptors 104-101
That game had DJ Augustin drill a 3 at the end of the game. Raptors had a few seconds still but Kawhi missed the 3 to tie. Kyle Lowry still sucks in the playoffs, going scoreless and he also went 0-2 from the FT line.


Warrior beat the Clippers 121-104
Durant and Patrick Beverly both got ejected late in the 4th. They got in two separate scuffles, one in the early 4th and then again towards the end. They each got technicals each time so they were booted. Seven technicals earns a one game suspension, something to keep an eye on for Durant, he needs five more throughout the duration of the playoffs.


Spurs beat the Nuggets 101-96


Today
Celtics beat Pacers 84-74

Blazers beat the Thunder 104-99

Pistons vs Bucks and Jazz vs Rockets are still to come today.

 

[Chaplin]

Blazers are a sleeper.

 

[Hoop Head]

Blazers are a sleeper.

It sucks they're without Nurkic. I thought they were a sleeper before he went down but replacing him with Enes Kanter isn't ideal. Kanter can give them offensive production but he's a terrible rim protector and defender. They might get past OKC though.

 

[sunsfan88]

The Pacers and Pistons, without Oladipo & Griffin respectively, really have no business being in the playoffs.

Both are such awful teams.

 

[95pro]

Magic upset the Raptors 104-101
That game had DJ Augustin drill a 3 at the end of the game. Raptors had a few seconds still but Kawhi missed the 3 to tie. Kyle Lowry still sucks in the playoffs, going scoreless and he also went 0-2 from the FT line.

Earlier this year when Leonard was traded for Derozen, I didn't realize how old lowry was. The guy has underperformed all these years and looks to expendable now.

 

[Russ Smith]

steph was limping a bit and wearing a brace but he had maybe the best all around game I've ever seen him play. Double digit rebounds, great defense, handled the ball and lit it up shooting wise. Effectively 3 of the 4 quarters were pretty even the whole game swung on the Lou Williams lost his mind segment when Steph fouled him they didn't call it and Williams eventually got a T plus a foul and the Warriors pushed the lead to double digits. Williams and Harrell were terrific in the game but the Clips just never got the game back close enough after the T dustups.

I know people hate the Warriors but Beverley is such a punk and he did exactly what they wanted him to do. He was trash talking Durant from the opening tip doing everything he could do to piss him off. Durant eventually let him get under his skin and got tossed.

Watched a bit of the Rockets last night they are absolutely rolling. I do think the NBA has to do something about the flopping, are they still doing the thing where they review plays later and fine for flopping? Both Curry and Harden had pretty aggregious ones in their respective game ones. There was a great play in the Rockets game where Durant got bodied into the screener and called for a foul and went off saying he was pushed, the exact play the Rockets run all the time where the screener bumps the defender forward and Harden jumps into the defender and gets 3 free throws. The refs kind of gave him one of those you have to be kidding me that's your play looks.

Capela looks much closer to healthy, if he and Paul stay healthy I think the Rockets will be tough to beat.

Saw enough of Philly man did they look bad, just never seemed to get that they had to defend. Embiid is apparently out for game 2, as you said they might actually be better off he was clearly not 100% and was not himself.

Man Pop is just an amazing coach, he just finds a way.

 

[Ronin]

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[Russ Smith]

Hate to see anybody get injured but I don't think it's coincidence that after Boogie got hurt, the Warriors extended the lead. My guess is Cousins is done for the season probably a hammy. Same leg as the achilles was.

 

[Russ Smith]

what an amazing comeback by the Clippers

I hate beverley but he really got under Durant's skin tonight he took KD out of the game

 

[Russ Smith]

Lou Williams unreal tonight

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Tale of two Hs: Hubris by Dubs and Heart by Clippers.

Almost as embarrassing as blowing 3-1 finals series lead vs Cavs.

KD was careless and selfish, Steph was sloppy in the second half and Klay was M.I.A.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Hate to see anybody get injured but I don't think it's coincidence that after Boogie got hurt, the Warriors extended the lead. My guess is Cousins is done for the season probably a hammy. Same leg as the achilles was.

He’s definitely done. You could see the quad pop in slowmo replay...

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

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[sunsfan88]

Hate to see anybody get injured but I don't think it's coincidence that after Boogie got hurt, the Warriors extended the lead. My guess is Cousins is done for the season probably a hammy. Same leg as the achilles was.

I think the second half showed how important Cousins for the Warriors.

Clippers put up 85 pts in the 2nd half without having to worry about Cousins in the paint.

They’ll still beat the Clippers in the series without him but it’s something to keep an eye on going forward.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

KD was too busy letting pest, Beverly get in his head instead of playing team ball. 6 FGs 9 TOs.

 

[Phrazbit]

steph was limping a bit and wearing a brace but he had maybe the best all around game I've ever seen him play. Double digit rebounds, great defense, handled the ball and lit it up shooting wise. Effectively 3 of the 4 quarters were pretty even the whole game swung on the Lou Williams lost his mind segment when Steph fouled him they didn't call it and Williams eventually got a T plus a foul and the Warriors pushed the lead to double digits. Williams and Harrell were terrific in the game but the Clips just never got the game back close enough after the T dustups.

I know people hate the Warriors but Beverley is such a punk and he did exactly what they wanted him to do. He was trash talking Durant from the opening tip doing everything he could do to piss him off. Durant eventually let him get under his skin and got tossed.

Watched a bit of the Rockets last night they are absolutely rolling. I do think the NBA has to do something about the flopping, are they still doing the thing where they review plays later and fine for flopping? Both Curry and Harden had pretty aggregious ones in their respective game ones. There was a great play in the Rockets game where Durant got bodied into the screener and called for a foul and went off saying he was pushed, the exact play the Rockets run all the time where the screener bumps the defender forward and Harden jumps into the defender and gets 3 free throws. The refs kind of gave him one of those you have to be kidding me that's your play looks.

Capela looks much closer to healthy, if he and Paul stay healthy I think the Rockets will be tough to beat.

Saw enough of Philly man did they look bad, just never seemed to get that they had to defend. Embiid is apparently out for game 2, as you said they might actually be better off he was clearly not 100% and was not himself.

Man Pop is just an amazing coach, he just finds a way.

Beverly is one of my most disliked players in the league. Not only is he an instigator but he's dirty, he is often doing subtle things to make plays dangerous. However... given that the Warriors have employed several guys who play as repulsive, if not worse, the last few years, it is hard to have any sympathy.

 

[Russ Smith]

Tale of two Hs: Hubris by Dubs and Heart by Clippers.

Almost as embarrassing as blowing 3-1 finals series lead vs Cavs.

KD was careless and selfish, Steph was sloppy in the second half and Klay was M.I.A.

There were a million plays, soft fouls giving the Clips and 1's instead of just letting the guy go, turnovers etc. For me durant you can sum up in one play. Immediately after the driving dunk and 1 that put the Warriors up 3. he has Gallinari 1 on 1 30 feet from the basket, in the bonus, and he settles for a contested long 3 that misses. They'd been running doubles at him and knocking him down all game and he apparently just decided he didn't want to drive and take the contact to get to the line so he settled.

 

[Russ Smith]

I think the second half showed how important Cousins for the Warriors.

Clippers put up 85 pts in the 2nd half without having to worry about Cousins in the paint.

They’ll still beat the Clippers in the series without him but it’s something to keep an eye on going forward.

He has his value yes but defensively they are so much better with him off the floor. When he left he was -1, the entire rest of the team was plus.

I should add where I agree with you is not having Cousins allowed the Clips to play smaller and leave Zubac on the bench for Harrell and Green. I don't think Harrell can guard Cousins, but he couldn't really stop Looney either admittedly because they have other priorities. But I do think if Cousins is in there that Clips small lineup might have more trouble guarding the Warriors. Sounds like he's out for the season though.


The Clips played great and the Warriors just had so many live ball TO's, Steph and Durant had 13 TO's and many of them led to layups like the one by Steph at the end of the 3rd quarter.

It also has to be said, Doc Rivers has coached circles around Kerr in the first 2 games. We can blast Durant for being soft but in 2 games Kerr hasn't devised ANYTHING to isolate a 7 foot HOF player against Beverly in the paint? I realize he's not a postup player but when he gets even close to the basket the Clips double and Durant can just throw right over the double. Instead he's been staying away from the basket so when the doubles come the passes are much longer and he's turning it over. I watched the Warriors broadcast, even Jim Barnett kept asking why do they keep letting Lou Williams go right, and why are they not doubling him and making him give the ball up early instead of giving him running starts?

 

[Hoop Head]

I saw a lot of people talking on Twitter about how the Clippers came back from 31 points and how now we'll see the return of the Warrior's 3-1 memes, only with a fresh new spin. It was less likely to haunt them if the Clippers came back from 40 but 31 might just get in the Warriors heads too much. If they somehow choke that series away then the rest of the playoffs would be incredibly interesting.

I really hope that Denver can beat the Spurs so we don't see the Spurs prosper from the Warriors choking. I would not bet against the Spurs if they beat the Nuggets and the Warriors choke away their series against the Clippers. I know Houston would become the likely favorite but a Western Conference Finals with Popovich coaching against D'Antoni is not something I want to see.

 

[Russ Smith]

I saw a lot of people talking on Twitter about how the Clippers came back from 31 points and how now we'll see the return of the Warrior's 3-1 memes, only with a fresh new spin. It was less likely to haunt them if the Clippers came back from 40 but 31 might just get in the Warriors heads too much. If they somehow choke that series away then the rest of the playoffs would be incredibly interesting.

I really hope that Denver can beat the Spurs so we don't see the Spurs prosper from the Warriors choking. I would not bet against the Spurs if they beat the Nuggets and the Warriors choke away their series against the Clippers. I know Houston would become the likely favorite but a Western Conference Finals with Popovich coaching against D'Antoni is not something I want to see.

I think Houston is the favorite now. Been saying it all year the Warriors are just not as good this year as people thought. The Warriors announcers were actually calling this in the 3rd quarter they said it was very apparent the team was "flat" because of Cousins' getting hurt, and that Kerr was trying to get them to snap out of it on the sideline but the team didn't seem to be paying attention they had a big lead and they seemed to think it was over. The Clips just kept scoring, kept getting And 1's because the Warriors were reaching in instead of just letting them score and all that stoppage of play killed the Warriors momentum.

At the end of the day IMO it came down to durant, he was terrible, he didn't handle Beverly well at all, 9 To's in 34 minutes. He only took 8 shots, yes they were doubling him but he can't let Beverley and Doc Rivers take him out of the game like that.

I expect the Warriors find a way to win this series but I have not expected them to get to the finals all year, when healthy Houston has been clearly better.

 

[Ronin]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
4/16/19, 11:38 AM
Warriors All-Star DeMarcus Cousins has been diagnosed with a torn left quad, league sources tell ⁦‪@TheAthleticNBA‬⁩ ⁦‪@Stadium‬⁩. Devastating for Cousins, who had MRI early this morning.

 

[Ronin]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
4/16/19, 11:42 AM
This is probably season-ending for Cousins, but he and the team will see how he responds within the first two weeks of rehab that is not expected to require surgery, sources said. twitter.com/ShamsCharania/…

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Warriors are mentally weak and lax this season and is why they should be worried.