2024 Texans pick watch thread

[Jasper]

As of week 8, we’re in an 8 team race for the #1 draft pick. The teams double if we include the 3 win teams.
However I don’t envision us winning 3-4 games. Panthers and Bears are closest to us.

Broncos and Patriots were unexpected tankers this season.

 

[Dan H]

#1 and #13 as of today.

 

[GeorgiaCard88]

Panthers win against Houston really helped the cause today

 

[BACH]

Carolina wins and Texans lose...

Tier 1:
Panthers (Playing better, but still bad)
Cardinals (Looks like a lock for this tier - pre Murray)
Giants (Looks like a lock for this tier with now both Taylor and Jones injured)
Bears (Better than the rest of the group if Fields plays better - that is a big if)

Tier 2:
Vikings (Back here with Cousins possible out for season)
Packers (they look like a mess at the moment)
Patriots (I cannot believe a Belichick team is in this tier. I think they are better than this, but still not good. Will draft 8-12 IMO)

Tier 3:
Broncos (Shows sign of life)
Raiders (Between bad and lower middle team)
Texans (Been playing over expectations. Looked bad this week. Was that the norm or an outlier? I'm thinking more norm)
Colts (Mishew can only take the team so far)
Rams (Stafford maybe out)

My original guess was #3 & #9. Current draft picks - #1 &#11

Current draft order

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[HoodieBets]

Once again now that as of today we have #1 pick why are we brining back Kyler? Why miss out on a generational talent in MHJ or at least have the ability to take a QB if needed.

 

[kerouac9]

Once again now that as of today we have #1 pick why are we brining back Kyler? Why miss out on a generational talent in MHJ or at least have the ability to take a QB if needed.

Because there’s a non-zero chance that Kyler is (1) a kind of sociopath who can do all the right things when nothing is expected of him and will turn into the same sour douche we’ve come do debate as soon as Trey McBride drops a pass on third and six or (2) the capable of consistently being the electric passer and runner we’ve seen in fits and starts over the first four years of his career.

The coaching staff has to find out whether these edge outcomes are true (and where the reality is) before deciding to move on or double down.

There isn’t much difference between the 2nd and 5th pick when it comes down to it.

 

[Chopper0080]

Carolina wins and Texans lose...

Tier 1:
Panthers (Playing better, but still bad)
Cardinals (Looks like a lock for this tier - pre Murray)
Giants (Looks like a lock for this tier with now both Taylor and Jones injured)
Bears (Better than the rest of the group if Fields plays better - that is a big if)

Tier 2:
Vikings (Back here with Cousins possible out for season)
Packers (they look like a mess at the moment)
Patriots (I cannot believe a Belichick team is in this tier. I think they are better than this, but still not good. Will draft 8-12 IMO)

Tier 3:
Broncos (Shows sign of life)
Raiders (Between bad and lower middle team)
Texans (Been playing over expectations. Looked bad this week. Was that the norm or an outlier? I'm thinking more norm)
Colts (Mishew can only take the team so far)
Rams (Stafford maybe out)

My original guess was #3 & #9. Current draft picks - #1 &#11

Current draft order

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Trading back looks a little different in this draft order.

 

[HoodieBets]

Because there’s a non-zero chance that Kyler is (1) a kind of sociopath who can do all the right things when nothing is expected of him and will turn into the same sour douche we’ve come do debate as soon as Trey McBride drops a pass on third and six or (2) the capable of consistently being the electric passer and runner we’ve seen in fits and starts over the first four years of his career.

The coaching staff has to find out whether these edge outcomes are true (and where the reality is) before deciding to move on or double down.

There isn’t much difference between the 2nd and 5th pick when it comes down to it.

There’s a big difference IMO between guys like Williams, Maye, MHJ and guys like Ott, McCarthy and Odunze. We need a top 3 pick to get a generational talent.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

The current draft order, and obviously it won't stay this way, would be the worst case scenario for the Cards. They could probably grab a haul for the #1 pick from the Giants but then you're going to 4th and not getting Marvin.

And, the Cards would have to make a trade if Kyler is their guy and they're drafting #1. Make no mistake, Harrison is far and away the best player coming into the draft but you can't pass up on all that draft capital from a QB needy team to take Harrison.

 

[Chopper0080]

The current draft order, and obviously it won't stay this way, would be the worst case scenario for the Cards. They could probably grab a haul for the #1 pick from the Giants but then you're going to 4th and not getting Marvin.

And, the Cards would have to make a trade if Kyler is their guy and they're drafting #1. Make no mistake, Harrison is far and away the best player coming into the draft but you can't pass up on all that draft capital from a QB needy team to take Harrison.

It sucks but I agree.

 

[kerouac9]

There’s a big difference IMO between guys like Williams, Maye, MHJ and guys like Ott, McCarthy and Odunze. We need a top 3 pick to get a generational talent.

Do we though?

JJ Watt - 11th overall
Aaron Donald - 13th overall
Justin Jefferson - 22nd overall
Cooper Kupp - 69th overall (nice)
T.J. Watt - 30th overall
Stephon Gilmore - 10th overall

Those are the last few Defensive and Offensive players of the year. Only Bosa was a Top 3 pick among those.

 

[HoodieBets]

Do we though?

JJ Watt - 11th overall
Aaron Donald - 13th overall
Justin Jefferson - 22nd overall
Cooper Kupp - 69th overall (nice)
T.J. Watt - 30th overall
Stephon Gilmore - 10th overall

Those are the last few Defensive and Offensive players of the year. Only Bosa was a Top 3 pick among those.

Those may be great players but none of those players are crucial to their team winning. Even Donald and Kupp needed Stafford to win. Also counting Kupp doesnt make sense that’s a lucky hit round 3 and later are all dice rolls. That would be like saying well you can take a QB in the 6th round and win a Super Bowl just look at Brady.

 

[oaken1]

Those may be great players but none of those players are crucial to their team winning. Even Donald and Kupp needed Stafford to win. Also counting Kupp doesnt make sense that’s a lucky hit round 3 and later are all dice rolls. That would be like saying well you can take a QB in the 6th round and win a Super Bowl just look at Brady.

But you can. Scouting is important. As is coaching.
With lots of these guys the biggest difference in their careers is that a 2nd round pick gets more chances than a 6th round pick.
Late round guys don't get the opportunity to adjust to nfl life. They have to kick it into balls out busting your ass mode immediately or their chance is gone.

 

[CT Card Fan]

Those may be great players but none of those players are crucial to their team winning. Even Donald and Kupp needed Stafford to win. Also counting Kupp doesnt make sense that’s a lucky hit round 3 and later are all dice rolls. That would be like saying well you can take a QB in the 6th round and win a Super Bowl just look at Brady.

Granted a lot of them are QBs, but a top 3 pick is also by no means a generational talent or even a sure thing each year. There have been plenty of OL, DL, and receivers that have been surpassed by those drafted below them, as seen with some of K9s examples. Some of that is players going into a better siutation with a better team, but some of it is also trusting your scouting to know who the best option is even if they don't have the flashiest combine numbers or are the sudden riser on draft boards.

 

[Denny Green Fan]

I would take the Penn state monster at 4 in a trade back if possible. Heck I would take him over Marvin who is a stud but I just couldn’t resist pairing up him with Paris. Then get a wr with the other first rounder. Go get a corner in the second round and chase young in free agency and let’s go cards!

 

[Strongstyle]

Once again now that as of today we have #1 pick why are we brining back Kyler? Why miss out on a generational talent in MHJ or at least have the ability to take a QB if needed.

The current staff absolutely have to see what they have with Kyler. They have to decide if they're keeping him or not. You have to play him.

 

[kerouac9]

Those may be great players but none of those players are crucial to their team winning. Even Donald and Kupp needed Stafford to win. Also counting Kupp doesnt make sense that’s a lucky hit round 3 and later are all dice rolls. That would be like saying well you can take a QB in the 6th round and win a Super Bowl just look at Brady.

If you're Anybody but Kyler you should just say that.

I listed the last handful of defensive and offensive players of the year -- the most impactful players on each side of the ball.

If the only thing that matters to you is winning the super bowl, it's even funnier to discount Tom Brady, since he's dominated the Super Bowl conversation for so long.

Even among the QBs, Mahomes wasn't chosen in the top 3, and neither was Lamar Jackson. You have to go back to 2016 and Matt Ryan to find an MVP who was chosen in the top 3, and I don't think anyone considers him a generational talent.

 

[kerouac9]

The current staff absolutely have to see what they have with Kyler. They have to decide if they're keeping him or not. You have to play him.

Yes. This is far more important than securing the #1 overall draft pick

 

[HoodieBets]

Granted a lot of them are QBs, but a top 3 pick is also by no means a generational talent or even a sure thing each year. There have been plenty of OL, DL, and receivers that have been surpassed by those drafted below them, as seen with some of K9s examples. Some of that is players going into a better siutation with a better team, but some of it is also trusting your scouting to know who the best option is even if they don't have the flashiest combine numbers or are the sudden riser on draft boards.

In the last 22 years here are some of the best WR to ever do it

1) Fitz drafted 3rd
2) Megatron drafted 2nd
3) Andre Johnson drafted 3rd
4) Julio drafted 6th
5) ja’marr chase drafted 5th
6) AJ Green drafted 4th

Yes you can find great players later in the draft 100%,generational talent comes from the top.

 

[oaken1]

Once again now that as of today we have #1 pick why are we brining back Kyler? Why miss out on a generational talent in MHJ or at least have the ability to take a QB if needed.

If we end up with pick 1 or 2 and don't need a QB you can bet your house Monti will trade the pick.
Imo our best case scenario is for Kyler to work out and we get pick 3.... that's the spot for the best non QB.
Monti might still trade 3 if he only has to move a couple slots.

 

[kerouac9]

In the last 22 years here are some of the best WR to ever do it

1) Fitz drafted 3rd
2) Megatron drafted 2nd
3) Andre Johnson drafted 3rd
4) Julio drafted 6th
5) ja’marr chase drafted 5th
6) AJ Green drafted 4th

Yes you can find great players later in the draft 100%,generational talent comes from the top.

What is this based on? Why is 22 years important? "Best WRs ever" according to whom?

As important: How many super bowls did those guys win when you add them together?

 

[kerouac9]

There are 45 offensive and defensive players on the NFL's All 2010s team.

Here are the players from that list drafted in the top three:
Fitz
Megatron
Joe Thomas
Julius Peppers
Ndamukong Suh
Von Miller

 

[Denny Green Fan]

I want to keep Murray and get 3 first round picks for that number 1 pick. That’s why for me it’s gonna suck to see Murray knock us out of the top 10 when we could of really set this roster up with Murray and some cheap studs. I get that fans want to see him play and evaluate him but my fear is Murray will play well enough to hurt our draft then turn around and get hurt again so then no Caleb no 3 first rounders and then we all upset cuz we ain’t got no hope

 

[football karma]

looking forward to draft time ( for a number of reasons...)

and seeing MHJ vs the no 2 rated WR and how much of a perceived edge there is

because if the choice is MHJ at #1 overall vs no MHJ at #4 overall + #36 + #70 + 2025 #1 --i am voting for the trade down

 

[oaken1]

looking forward to draft time ( for a number of reasons...)

and seeing MHJ vs the no 2 rated WR and how much of a perceived edge there is

because if the choice is MHJ at #1 overall vs no MHJ at #4 overall + #36 + #70 + 2025 #1 --i am voting for the trade down

I would too. Then take Fashanu at 4 and know our bookends are in place for a decade... hopefully get Newton with the Texans pick...and a big WR at pick 33