2026 Final Four picks: Early predictions for Duke basketball, March Madness national championship

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Florida basketball just finished cutting down the nets in San Antonio, but we’re onto Indianapolis and the 2026 Final Four.

Following a national-championship run by Walter Clayton Jr. and the Gators, it’s time to take an early look at what could be in store for the 2025-26 season, which begins in early November. Coaches will have to navigate the transfer portal and NBA Draft decisions in the coming days and weeks, so rosters will change by the time the 2025-26 season tips off.

But a few squads already appear to have the pieces to charge for a championship in Indy, which is hosting for the first time since the “bubble” Final Four in 2021. It’ll be the ninth time Indiana has hosted a Final Four.

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Here are some early March Madness predictions for the 2026 edition of the Final Four.

Final Four predictions for 2026 in Indianapolis​


The day after the 2025 national championship was won by Florida, here are our picks for the Final Four in Indianapolis and a look at each team.

Duke


Three of the Blue Devils’ five national championships were won in Indianapolis, including 2010 when Jon Scheyer was a senior. Entering his fourth season as Duke’s head coach, Scheyer welcomes a loaded recruiting class headlined by the Boozer twins – Cameron and Cayden – and Shelton Henderson. Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans are among the players with decisions to make, but Scheyer is sure to land a stud guard via the transfer portal. The Devils missed an opportunity with generational talent Cooper Flagg, but Duke is Duke. The talent is always there for a potential title run.

Houston​


All head coach Kelvin Sampson has done the last four seasons is average 33 wins, including a pair of Big 12 Conference championships in the Cougars’ first two seasons as part of the league. Returning starters Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler provide a good base, but Sampson also snagged a trio of big-time recruits in Chris Cenac Jr., Isiah Harwell and Kingston Flemings. Houston has become the most consistent winner in the sport.

Louisville​


A Final Four appearance in the second season under head coach Pat Kelsey? Yep. If there’s an early winner in transfer portal season, it’s the Cardinals. Kelsey is bringing in a trio of veterans via the portal – Xavier’s Ryan Conwell, Virginia’s Isaac McKneely and Kennesaw State’s Adrian Wooley – to team up with five-star recruit Mikel Brown Jr. and returning center Kasean Pryor, who missed most of the season with an injury. Aly Khalifa, a BYU transfer, also returns from a season-ending injury that sidelined him in Kelsey’s impressive debut year.

Purdue​


The Boilermakers could have the most experienced roster in college basketball next season, with their top three scorers set to return in All-American guard Braden Smith, sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer and big man Trey Kaufman-Renn. Head coach Matt Painter also has post depth with the addition of South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff – a double-double machine – and the return of a healthy Daniel Jacobsen, who is a 7-foot-4 center.

National champion predictions 2026​


Purdue beats Houston: The Boilermakers and Cougars played a Sweet 16 thriller in Indianapolis this season, with Houston using an inbounds play to survive and advance. The Big Ten hasn’t won a national championship since 2000. Matt Painter will change that and lead Purdue to its first title in program history. Boiler Up.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to [email protected].

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Early Final Four predictions for 2026 March Madness, NCAA Tournament

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