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You know how at the beginning of a horror movie you get introduced to a few main characters knowing at some point at least half will be killed off? In the 2025 NCAA Tournament, those main characters heading for an untimely demise are the very teams that avoided that same fate a year ago.
Last year's Final Four teams won't be so fortunate in this year's sequel, and I think we’ll start to see them killed off as early as the first round. It might even start with the defending champs. Here's that and two other big picture predictions for the first round.
All odds via BetMGM
This prediction is made a bit easier by the fact NC State failed to qualify for the tournament altogether, but it still requires at least one of the other three teams to suffer an upset in the first round. The matchups are as follows:
Looking at those spreads, the obvious upset pick is Oklahoma over the defending back-to-back champion UConn. While that's certainly possible, I actually like High Point to give Purdue a hard time too. When it's all said and done, we could be going into a second round with just one of last year's Final Four teams still standing. At the very least, I think it'll be down to two, and with Alabama in the same region as Duke, I don't think any of these teams will still be around by the time we get to the Final Four.
To all those who were upset about North Carolina's surprise bid as one of the final four teams to make the bracket – and there were more than a few of you – you won’t have to watch the Tar Heels play for too long. They won’t last past the first round.
Actually, they might not even make it to the first round, as I'm leaning towards San Diego State to win their First Four game for the 11-seed. UNC is favored by 4.5 points in that matchup, but the Aztecs' stifling defense could make things very tough. If the Heels somehow figure that out, they'll likely be underdogs against Ole Miss, which is simply a better team.
An early UNC exit will only add to the frustration of why they were included in the first place. But at people will get the validation they seek.
I wouldn't blame anyone who took Arkansas to beat Kansas in their first-round matchup. The Jayhawks are stumbling into the tourney with a losing record over their last 11 games, including a double-digit quarterfinal loss in the Big 12 tournament -- a mere shell of the powerhouse teams we're used to seeing Bill Self coach.
At the same time, Kansas is favored by 4.5 points, and Calipari's recent tournament track record doesn't bode well for the Razorbacks. Which gets to the real heart of why he'll have it rough in the first round, even if Arkansas wins. Kentucky is going to beat Troy.
That's not exactly going on a limb, as the Wildcats are favored by 10.5 points over a 14-seed, but let's not forget, a first-round win over a lower seed wasn't a lock in recent years for the Wildcats under Calipari. In fact, from 2020 to 2024, Calipari's teams won just a single tournament game and suffered first-round upsets at the hands of No. 15 Saint Peter's and No. 14 Oakland. It was getting ugly.
Now, new head coach Mark Pope has a chance to match that win total in just one game -- eclipse it in a single tournament. And I think he will. Which, short of a surprisingly deep run for Arkansas, will make for a bittersweet tourney for Calipari as he watches his ex flaunt her new man in his face and light up with the same glow Calipari used to be able to give her.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: March Madness 1st round bracket predictions for the men's tournament
Continue reading...
Last year's Final Four teams won't be so fortunate in this year's sequel, and I think we’ll start to see them killed off as early as the first round. It might even start with the defending champs. Here's that and two other big picture predictions for the first round.
All odds via BetMGM
Half of last year's Final Four will be eliminated early (and none will return)
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This prediction is made a bit easier by the fact NC State failed to qualify for the tournament altogether, but it still requires at least one of the other three teams to suffer an upset in the first round. The matchups are as follows:
- 2 Alabama (-22.5) vs. 15 Robert Morris
- 4 Purdue (-8.5) vs. 13 High Point
- 8 UConn (-4.5) vs. 9 Oklahoma
Looking at those spreads, the obvious upset pick is Oklahoma over the defending back-to-back champion UConn. While that's certainly possible, I actually like High Point to give Purdue a hard time too. When it's all said and done, we could be going into a second round with just one of last year's Final Four teams still standing. At the very least, I think it'll be down to two, and with Alabama in the same region as Duke, I don't think any of these teams will still be around by the time we get to the Final Four.
UNC's dance will be short-lived
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To all those who were upset about North Carolina's surprise bid as one of the final four teams to make the bracket – and there were more than a few of you – you won’t have to watch the Tar Heels play for too long. They won’t last past the first round.
Actually, they might not even make it to the first round, as I'm leaning towards San Diego State to win their First Four game for the 11-seed. UNC is favored by 4.5 points in that matchup, but the Aztecs' stifling defense could make things very tough. If the Heels somehow figure that out, they'll likely be underdogs against Ole Miss, which is simply a better team.
An early UNC exit will only add to the frustration of why they were included in the first place. But at people will get the validation they seek.
John Calipari won’t have a good time
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I wouldn't blame anyone who took Arkansas to beat Kansas in their first-round matchup. The Jayhawks are stumbling into the tourney with a losing record over their last 11 games, including a double-digit quarterfinal loss in the Big 12 tournament -- a mere shell of the powerhouse teams we're used to seeing Bill Self coach.
At the same time, Kansas is favored by 4.5 points, and Calipari's recent tournament track record doesn't bode well for the Razorbacks. Which gets to the real heart of why he'll have it rough in the first round, even if Arkansas wins. Kentucky is going to beat Troy.
That's not exactly going on a limb, as the Wildcats are favored by 10.5 points over a 14-seed, but let's not forget, a first-round win over a lower seed wasn't a lock in recent years for the Wildcats under Calipari. In fact, from 2020 to 2024, Calipari's teams won just a single tournament game and suffered first-round upsets at the hands of No. 15 Saint Peter's and No. 14 Oakland. It was getting ugly.
Now, new head coach Mark Pope has a chance to match that win total in just one game -- eclipse it in a single tournament. And I think he will. Which, short of a surprisingly deep run for Arkansas, will make for a bittersweet tourney for Calipari as he watches his ex flaunt her new man in his face and light up with the same glow Calipari used to be able to give her.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: March Madness 1st round bracket predictions for the men's tournament
Continue reading...
