3 Year Aggregate to set Draft Order?

[slinslin]

I guess this deserves it's own thread, seems like it is worth a headline rather than stuck in the other topic where some people won't click on it.

Ric Bucher tweeted that this would be likely.

I created an example based on this ...
Weighted formula is 2011 x3, 2010 x2 and 2009 x1

Team		Draft Position Avg	Win Avg	Weighted 	Win Score
minnesota	3,0000000000		18,6666666667		105
New Jersey	6,0000000000		23,3333333333		130
Sacramento	3,0000000000		22,0000000000		139
Washington	3,3333333333		22,6666666667		140
Clippers	6,3333333333		26,6666666667		173
Toronto		8,0000000000		31,6666666667		179
Detroit		9,6666666667		32,0000000000		183
Golden State	7,6666666667		30,3333333333		189
Indiana		12,6666666667		35,0000000000		211
New York	11,3333333333		34,3333333333		216
Philly		13,0000000000		36,3333333333		218
Charlotte	12,3333333333		37,6666666667		225
Milwaukee	12,3333333333		38,3333333333		231
Memphis		12,6666666667		36,6666666667		242
cleveland	20,6666666667		48,6666666667		245
New Orleans	17,0000000000		44,0000000000		261
Houston		17,0000000000		46,0000000000		266
Utah		18,3333333333		46,6666666667		271
Phoenix		17,6666666667		46,6666666667		274
Atlanta		20,6666666667		48,0000000000		285
OKC		16,0000000000		42,6666666667		288
Portland	22,3333333333		50,6666666667		298
chicago		20,3333333333		48,0000000000		309
Denver		24,0000000000		52,3333333333		310
Miami		21,3333333333		49,3333333333		311
Boston		24,0000000000		56,0000000000		330
Dallas		25,3333333333		54,0000000000		331
Orlando		26,3333333333		56,6666666667		333
San Antonio	25,0000000000		55,0000000000		337
Lakers		27,6666666667		59,6666666667		350

Needless to say this would totally screw the Suns and the Cavalliers in particular who lost Amare and Lebron for nothing in those 3 years.

The Suns are likely to pick in the #18-20 range if this comes true. That is a DISASTER. As it stands we would be likely to be a top 10 lottery team at best.
If the season is lost Grant Hill and Steve Nash might retire or leave as free agents. We would enter a 2012/2013 season with Gortat, Frye, Warrick, Dudley, Morris and a #20 pick assuming amnesty clause on Childress.

 

[slinslin]

Imo the best solutions would be in order

1. Reverse last years lottery odds
2. Redo last years lottery with equal odds
3. Publicly aggregate a pseudo power ranking among all team GMs
4. Redo last years lottery

 

[HooverDam]

I'm actually not against this, I think its generally a good idea, even if it does screw our team in the short run.

If this happens though, Sarver needs to do everything possible to go all in on winning this year if/when it happens. With a shortened year that should help Nash & Hill and there's no since in totally tanking anyway since you'll likely end up with a middle of the road pick.

......................................................................................................

Obviously its tough to suggest specific trades since we don't know how all thats going to work but I'd really love the Suns to get Josh Smith from Atlanta. He can replace a lot of what they lost in Amar'e. He's a much better defender than Amar'e and he's more versatile, he can defend some wings or bang around inside. Its about a wash in terms of rebounding, but Josh Smith steals the ball a whole heck of a lot for an inside guy.

Smith is a good fit because on offense he can slash, play the P&R with Nash and it allows Frye to hang around outside the perimeter. On defense Smith can be more of a traditional PF if needed and guard guys Frye may not be strong enough to (so long as there's not a super quick SF that will cut Frye up).

A starting 5 of Gortat-Frye-Smith-Pietrus-Nash would be super fun to watch and could make some noise. Its got outside shooting (Nash, Pietrus, Frye and somewhat Smith), perimeter defense (Pietrus, Smith), interior defense (Gortat, Smith), pick and roll options (Gortat, Smith) as well as pick and pop (Frye, Smith)....it could be exciting.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'm actually not against this, I think its generally a good idea, even if it does screw our team in the short run.

If this happens though, Sarver needs to do everything possible to go all in on winning this year if/when it happens. With a shortened year that should help Nash & Hill and there's no since in totally tanking anyway since you'll likely end up with a middle of the road pick.

I'm a little confused here. I thought the altered draft system was in case the season was lost but you appear to be saying that this upcoming season (should it occur) will factor in. Is the league looking at adopting a new system regardless or is the 3 year weighted draft merely a replacement for a lost or drastically shortened season?

Steve

 

[Griffin]

I'm a little confused here. I thought the altered draft system was in case the season was lost

You are correct. If we have a season, then we have a regular draft. As far as I know, no changes to the draft were proposed in the new CBA other than the possibly higher age requirement.

 

[HooverDam]

You are correct. If we have a season, then we have a regular draft. As far as I know, no changes to the draft were proposed in the new CBA other than the possibly higher age requirement.

Ah ok, I did misunderstand then.....either way, I still think the Suns need to get Smith (or someone) and try to go for it on a short season with Nash & Hill. Nash and Hill have pretty limited trade value, so even if you do blow it up you likely aren't going to get a lot (they'd likely have to be traded to contenders and you'd get low picks).

 

[Mainstreet]

Ah ok, I did misunderstand then.....either way, I still think the Suns need to get Smith (or someone) and try to go for it on a short season with Nash & Hill. Nash and Hill have pretty limited trade value, so even if you do blow it up you likely aren't going to get a lot (they'd likely have to be traded to contenders and you'd get low picks).

However, I'm hearing the 2012 draft will be a good draft so some good players should fall.

 

[SunsTzu]

However, I'm hearing the 2012 draft will be a good draft so some good players should fall.

Potentially a great draft, however the strength of the class depends heavily on underclassman. If the NBA get the 20 year old age requirement they want it won't be nearly as strong.

 

[slinslin]

With the 20 year requirement the draft will be weaker than 2011.

Otherwise..

Anthony Davis is a franchise player PF. Monster shotblocker and Garnett like offensive skills.

Kidd-Gilchrist is a stud wing player.

Lamb will be an allstar SG.

Kabongo looks like a good PG, Teague has potential and Quincy Miller can be a good SF. Austin Rivers could be a Monta Ellis type player.

Then you still have Barnes, Sullinger, Jones from last years draft..