A "shocking" speculation

[elindholm]

I've taken some flak for saying that a "radio idiot" was the one who predicted an upcoming "shocking" move. Several people have corrected me that it was agent Bill Duffy, rather than a media analyst. However, my point stands in that it was someone whose main agenda was drawing attention to himself, not communicating honest information about the team.

Having said that, I have a new theory for the "shocking" target: Mourning. Hoopshype is reporting that Mourning wants to attempt a comeback, has been working out for two months, looked good in a charity game -- and is being asked by the Nets to stay retired, so they can get out of his contract. So that leads to this possible idea:

Phoenix gets:
Alonzo Mourning ($5.4 million, 2007)
Rodney Buford (0.7, 2005)

New Jersey gets:
Howard Eisley (6.4, 2006)
first-round CHI pick in 2005
$3 million cash

Why do the Nets do it? If Mourning feels healthy and wants to play, it's very unlikely that the Nets will be able to talk him into staying retired. The salary savings (taking everyone into account) is nearly $6 million; add the $3 million cash to that, and it's a tidy sum. They are one of the few teams that can actually use Eisley, especially if Kidd demands a trade, as is now being widely speculated. And the CHI pick will give them an important prospect in what figures to be a difficult rebuilding project.

Why the Suns do it is probably obvious: They are getting to roll the dice with Mourning, and all it's costing them is money and a draft pick. In the worst-case scenario, they wind up $9 million short and lose the pick for nothing. But how valuable is that pick to them, really? Their roster is pretty well set except at the power positions, and they aren't going to get a hot big-man prospect with a pick that can't be higher than #5. (Buford is a salary throw-in and would be instantly waived.)

Edit: I just realized Buford can't be traded. Okay, so there'd be some other low-level salary maneuvering in order to make things come out right.

Re-edit: RealGM says that Mourning for Eisley works straight up. That would mean that the Suns do still have about $1 million in cap space, as some numbers indicate. Could this be what they're saving it for?

 

[Joe Mama]

I think you may have lost your mind. I'm sorry Eric, but there is just no other way to put it. It's an interesting idea. There's no way the Phoenix Suns would include that pick from Chicago.

That certainly would qualify as "shocking" though.

How about getting into one of the many rumored New York trades and acquiring Mutombo?

Joe

 

[elindholm]

There's no way the Phoenix Suns would include that pick from Chicago.

Really? It's been widely speculated on this board that the Suns would be happy to move out Eisley and the CHI pick for nothing, but that they can't find any takers. So do you think that Mourning, given his present circumstances, has negative value to the Suns? I don't.

 

[Griffin]

What's Mourning's contract like? Is there a way to get out of it if he can't play? His contract runs for three more seasons and he's due to make about $4M more than Eisley during that span. And I doubt Mourning can play more than a few games next season, much less still be in the league the following years.

 

[Joe Mama]

So do you think that Mourning, given his present circumstances, has negative value to the Suns? I don't.

Absolutely. Alonzo Mourning is to be paid $17 million over the next three years. Last year at this time we heard even more glowing reviews of his play. In fact in a so impressive that the New Jersey Nets gave him a guaranteed four-year deal, and there were a couple other teams willing to do the same. Then he played something like 15 games and retired.

Howard Eiseley will make $13.3 million for the next two seasons. That extra season might not really mean anything to the Phoenix Suns because they will be over the salary cap. I could see the Suns willing to make a straight up trade if they really think there's a chance that Alonzo Mourning could do something. If they have really good feeling about it they would probably throw in the $3 million cash.

I just on see how any sane GM would also throw in the Chicago draft pick.

Joe Mama

 

[F-Dog]

There's no way the Phoenix Suns would include that pick from Chicago.

Really? It's been widely speculated on this board that the Suns would be happy to move out Eisley and the CHI pick for nothing, but that they can't find any takers. So do you think that Mourning, given his present circumstances, has negative value to the Suns? I don't.

We're talking about the guy who can't play, right? And who doesn't have any insurance on his contract? Yeah, it's safe to say he has negative value.

I'm sure the Nets would snap that deal up without any incentive at all (except that they just signed Buford and can't trade him)--they've completely given up on Mourning, and the Suns are offering to pay the last year of his contract and give them a player who'll actually suit up. If the Suns sent enough cash to pay the difference between Mourning's salary and Eisley's the next two years, the Nets would be ecstatic.


The problem with a straight-up deal from the Suns' perspective is that they'd still need a center. Hey, at least the Mayo Clinic is nearby, right?

 

[elindholm]

Okay, well regardless of what the Suns do, I make the following prediction:

Mourning will play this year, somewhere, and will be more effective than he was last year.

So there.

 

[hcsilla]

Okay, well regardless of what the Suns do, I make the following prediction:

Mourning will play this year, somewhere, and will be more effective than he was last year.

Big deal...

 

[moviebuff316]

All I can say about this idea..Even the Colangelo's aren't that stupid.

 

[Bada0Bing]

Man, this would be terrible. Alonzo hasn't been good in years. I watched him play for NJ when he made his comeback and he was nothing like he used to be. I would hate to see the Suns take on this contract.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Well, that would be shocking.

Eisley for Mourning straight up. Eisley's contract is bad, Mourning's is worse. So nothing would need to be thrown in. The League has already said that the Nets will not get relief from Mourning's contract because the team knew he was sick when they signed him.

For the Suns, really the risk is minimal. We're not in cost cutting mode anymore. We would still have to pay Eisley to sit on the bench. The biggest risk is the final year of Mourning's contract. This trade would not preclude us from using the MLE next summer. It doesn't preclude us from bigger trades either since Eisley is not exactly a marketable commodity.

As long as we can stay in that sweet spot between the salary cap and the tax threshold, there is virtually no risk in this.

If Mourning is showing any ability at all to play, I'd do it. He would be a great locker room presence.

 

[elindholm]

As long as we can stay in that sweet spot between the salary cap and the tax threshold, there is virtually no risk in this.

Right. And that's exactly why I think the Suns would also have to include the CHI pick. If the Nets peddle Mourning on the open market, some other team will come up with an expiring contract more palatable than Eisley's.

 

[hcsilla]

If the Nets peddle Mourning on the open market, some other team will come up with an expiring contract more palatable than Eisley's.

For instance who? I really really doubt that would be a significant interest in acquiring of Zo. He has become pretty much untradeable. Even more than Eisley has.

 

[Joe Mama]

As long as we can stay in that sweet spot between the salary cap and the tax threshold, there is virtually no risk in this.

Right. And that's exactly why I think the Suns would also have to include the CHI pick. If the Nets peddle Mourning on the open market, some other team will come up with an expiring contract more palatable than Eisley's.

IF they would have to include the Chicago pick there is no way the Phoenix Suns would make the deal. There isn't even a slight chance. Maybe if Alonzo Mourning show that he could play at a reasonable level for an entire season they would do it. However we all know that isn't going to happen... well, almost all of us know.

Joe Mama

 

[scoutmasterdave]

If this is a straight-up Eisley for Mourning deal, I'd do it in a heartbeat, assuming Mourning is serious about making a comeback. This is a low-risk, high-reward trade that couldn't have a negative effect. Sure, we'd be on the hook for one more year for a player who possibly couldn't play, but there's no way we'll be anywhere near under the cap then, regardless, given that they'll have to pay Amare & JJ. 'Twould certainly be shocking...

 

[JS22]

I've taken some flak for saying that a "radio idiot" was the one who predicted an upcoming "shocking" move. Several people have corrected me that it was agent Bill Duffy, rather than a media analyst. However, my point stands in that it was someone whose main agenda was drawing attention to himself, not communicating honest information about the team.

Having said that, I have a new theory for the "shocking" target: Mourning. Hoopshype is reporting that Mourning wants to attempt a comeback, has been working out for two months, looked good in a charity game -- and is being asked by the Nets to stay retired, so they can get out of his contract. So that leads to this possible idea:

Phoenix gets:
Alonzo Mourning ($5.4 million, 2007)
Rodney Buford (0.7, 2005)

New Jersey gets:
Howard Eisley (6.4, 2006)
first-round CHI pick in 2005
$3 million cash

Why do the Nets do it? If Mourning feels healthy and wants to play, it's very unlikely that the Nets will be able to talk him into staying retired. The salary savings (taking everyone into account) is nearly $6 million; add the $3 million cash to that, and it's a tidy sum. They are one of the few teams that can actually use Eisley, especially if Kidd demands a trade, as is now being widely speculated. And the CHI pick will give them an important prospect in what figures to be a difficult rebuilding project.

Why the Suns do it is probably obvious: They are getting to roll the dice with Mourning, and all it's costing them is money and a draft pick. In the worst-case scenario, they wind up $9 million short and lose the pick for nothing. But how valuable is that pick to them, really? Their roster is pretty well set except at the power positions, and they aren't going to get a hot big-man prospect with a pick that can't be higher than #5. (Buford is a salary throw-in and would be instantly waived.)

Edit: I just realized Buford can't be traded. Okay, so there'd be some other low-level salary maneuvering in order to make things come out right.

Re-edit: RealGM says that Mourning for Eisley works straight up. That would mean that the Suns do still have about $1 million in cap space, as some numbers indicate. Could this be what they're saving it for?

This will NEVER happen! But it would certainly be interesting if it did.

 

[JS22]

And another thing. Is Mourning really worth a potential top 6 pick? NO WAY! Not with his health.

 

[Suns_fan69]

And yet another thing.

New Jersey just signed Jacques Vaughn to play backup PG to Kidd so they probably don't need Eisley as much as we'd think.

We'd have to assume if this was in the works that the two sides have been talking for a while.

Maybe they're looking for Marion to reunite with Kidd... remember they have that huge trade exception from the Kittles deal. Only problem is there's no way in hell anybody would make that trade straight up and I just don't see any other pieces that the suns would want.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Depending on what doctors say about Mourning's health, it might be worth throwing in some lesser bargaining chip--rights to Milos, 2nd round pick, cash, etc.

No way would I include the Chicago pick. Even if we don't want a young player, that pick will be worth more on the trade market later.

Look at it this way. From NJ's perspective, even though Eisley is over paid, he will at least be on the roster and could spell Kidd a few mins each game (provided Kidd stays, if he doesn't it might even make Eisley more attractive). Mourning does nothing for them except drain $ from the team coffers.

 

[George O'Brien]

Mourning is not an option until he proves he can play again.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

There's no way the Phoenix Suns would include that pick from Chicago.

Really? It's been widely speculated on this board that the Suns would be happy to move out Eisley and the CHI pick for nothing, but that they can't find any takers.

Not from anyone that actually lives in reality .....

 

[George O'Brien]

I have little doubt that the Suns tried to use the Chicago pick to move Eisley without takers. At $6.4 million this year, his salary is almost as much as Foyle is getting for his first year and everyone calls it outrageious. I suspect it would have been enough to get Dampier.

The only way Eisley will get moved is for a fringe player with a similar contract. No one is going to give the Suns that much pure cap space.