Good article...........small statement about the suns/washington trade below.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/basketball/nba/11/10/beat.1111/index.html
-----------------------------------------
Alarming starts
A few players haven't had their wake-up call yet
Posted: Tuesday November 4, 2003 2:39AM; Updated: Tuesday November 11, 2003 2:11AM
By John Hollinger, SI.com
McGrady and the ice-cold Magic have already dropped five home games.
Atlantic Division teams over .500; Boston and Washington are in first place at 3-3. The division's seven teams are just 9-25 against the rest of the NBA.
We're 2-2, that's not .500. There's a difference between 10-10, 5-5, and 2-2. Five hundred? That's like saying a team that's 2-0 is 1,000 percent and undefeated on the season." -- Richard Jefferson of the Nets, demonstrating the dangers of leaving school early.
"If that fan was a little more professional, you know, I probably wouldn't have had to do that." -- Bonzi Wells of the Trail Blazers, explaining why he flipped off a fan during an unintentionally hilarious interview.
Bbbbbbbrrrrrrrrring!!!!!
The alarm clock for the start of the season went off two weeks ago, but if you look around the league, there are a few guys who have been hitting the snooze button.
While two weeks isn't a very large sample -- it's about six games for most teams -- there are still some players whose performance is so far below their established norms that it's starting to get, well, alarming.
Here's a look at some of the guys who have the masses worried. I picked out 10 players who have played at least 100 minutes -- making it a little harder to just write it off as a brief slump -- and have massively underachieved their efforts of a year ago.
I'll call them the All Wake-Up Call team. However you want to describe them, they're badly in need of a jolt:
Tracy McGrady, Magic -- An MVP candidate a year ago, McGrady has been swarmed by zone defenses that the Magic can't seem to solve. It doesn't help that he's also not making shots. McGrady's average of 21.4 points a game doesn't seem bad until you remember that last season he averaged 32.1. In addition, his 35 percent shooting has included a number of missed jumpers that reliably found the bottom of the net in 2002-03.
Alonzo Mourning, Nets -- It's great that he's healthy again, and I wish him continued vigor in his comeback, but 7.7 points and 3.0 rebounds a night probably wasn't what the Nets had in mind when they gave him a four-year deal this summer -- especially given the limited shot-blocking (just three this year) that the two-time Defensive Player of the Year has provided.
Juwan Howard, Magic -- When Orlando added Howard during the offseason, it was Drew Gooden that people thought might struggle, as he was pushed into a less suitable small forward role. But instead Howard has been the dud. Along with McGrady, the free-agent pickup has been the other half of a disappointing Orlando attack. How can somebody score 18 per game on 45 percent shooting for last year's pathetic Nuggets but only average 14 on 39 percent shooting for this year's Magic? Hopefully, Doc Rivers has the answer.
Speedy Claxton, Warriors -- Claxton had a golden opportunity to establish himself as Golden State's point guard while Nick Van Exel recovered from knee surgery. He punted that chance like he was Ray Guy. Claxton hasn't shot as badly as some of the other guys on this list, but has shown zero aptitude for running the offense. He's averaging nearly as many turnovers (2.2 a game) as assists (2.6), a definite no-no for an aspiring point guard.
Alvin Williams, Raptors -- At least in this case we know what the problem is. Williams has bone spurs in his ankle, and he is trying in vain to play with them. Let's put it this way: Milt Palacio shouldn't even be in the league right now, and Williams is about to lose his job to the guy. He's shooting a miserable 22.5 percent from the floor and averaging just 3.8 points a game, yet he's still on pace to set a career high in turnovers with two a contest.
Lamond Murray, Raptors -- He was supposed to provide instant offense off the bench, but instead he's conducting a masonry clinic. After missing all of last year with foot problems, Murray has hit just 28 percent of his shots and is scoring only 7.7 a game, little more than half his career average. Toronto is last in scoring despite Vince Carter's outstanding play, but that fact is less surprising after examining the performance of Williams and Murray.
Michael Finley, Mavericks -- Some have argued that Finley's struggles stem from the fact that he can't get shots in the Mavs' offense now that Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison have been added to the equation. But the real problem is that he can't make the shots he's taking. Finley is still getting 10 field goal attempts a game, but has missed one open jumper after another en route to a miserable 33.8 shooting percentage. And despite the reduced attempts, he's still making nearly as many turnovers (1.4 a game) as last year (1.6).
Travis Best, Mavericks -- So far he's played more like Travis Worst. While Dallas' offensive output has been pretty muted this year, the fact is that the Mavs' other new additions -- Jamison, Walker and Tony Delk -- have played well. The problem is that Finley can't get going, as mentioned above, and Best has been a train wreck. He's shooting 17 percent, and his scoring average is a measly 2.6 a game. He's struggled so much that when Steve Nash sat out on Thursday, Delk -- who takes to the point like a fish to land -- got the start instead of Best.
Lamar Odom, Heat -- The two big knocks on Odom have been that he's an erratic shooter and that he's turnover prone. He's been busily proving his critics right on both counts. Odom has converted just 33 percent of his shots and his 10.4 scoring average is hugely disappointing for the alleged focal point of the offense. In addition, his average of 2.6 turnovers a game leads the team. The winless Heat's problems run much deeper than Odom, but he's done nothing to justify his $60 million deal.
Eddy Curry, Bulls -- As though it would be possible to make this list and not have a Bull on it. Curry's numbers are disappointing enough -- 12 points, four rebounds and nearly three turnovers a game. But the real killer is his defense, or rather his lack of it. More often than not, when opposing guards drive the lane Curry is nowhere in sight. His lethargic play has been one of the key's to Chicago's stream of blowout losses to start the season.
************ JAHIDI WHITE BREVIN KNIGHT TRADE *********
• It was a footnote to this past weekend, but don't underestimate the impact of the Jahidi White-Brevin Knight trade. White is a monstrous bruiser who can match muscles with Shaq as well as anybody; it amazed me that it took this long for a Western team to acquire him. The deal makes Phoenix a much more realistic threat to climb into the conference's elite.
• The Blunder of the Week award goes to the artist formerly known as Nene Hilario. During Friday's Clippers-Nuggets game, Nene occupied two lanes while Earl Boykins shot a free throw with a minute left. Boykins' shot was good but it was waved off because of Nene's careless lane violation. That point ended up making the difference as the Clippers tied the score and then won in overtime.
Last week's Statitudes on the decline of scoring this season produced a bevy of emails. While offenses came to life in week two, it's pretty clear the article hit a nerve with fans who want to see more scoring.
At least we should be happy that NBA referees no longer call palming and carrying. If not for that, teams probably wouldn't average 90 points per game combined. -- David W., Los Angeles
The issue is more simple than that.The NBA based on pure talent has been in a decline since the 1980s. If Jordan had not arrived, they may have been declared DOA years ago. -- Steve Cagen
Why do you think these basketball wannabes will shoot any better with two more weeks of training camp when they haven't practiced enough for the 10 years preceding that? It's pure and simple that the problem is with too much emphasis on dunking, "athleticism" and post-dunk showboating ... the NBA is now the "Nothing But Airballs" league. -- Doug Baldelli, Shreveport, La.
I got a steady stream of letters along the lines of the three above, but I think it's more than just deficient shooting. Why? Because the league free-throw percentage has hardly budged. It's right around 75 percent, just like it was last year and the year before and the year before that ... you get the point. The problem crops up when guys are shooting with a warm body leaning on them, the kind of shots you can only take during games and practices.
Another thing to consider about low scoring in the NBA: There are 11 new head coaches. That means many teams are learning new offenses. I'm not exactly sure about all of the teams, but I know Rick Carlisle said he was worried about the Pacers getting the new defensive scheme down before concentrating more on the offense (which I think helps explain the offensive abomination against the Nuggets). -- Sam Adams
Sam,
Your theory is an intriguing one, and a couple of other people offered it up as well. Intuitively, it makes sense, but the offensive woes of the first week weren't limited to those 11 teams. The clubs with holdover coaches experienced the same struggles -- most notably Orlando.
It sounds as though you're saying that defense will destroy the game of basketball. It certainly hasn't destroyed baseball and football ... or even soccer. If you take defense out of the game, why not just give each team 100 uncontested shots as in those "spot shooting contests." Then the winner can be declared and everyone can go home happy ... and early.
I've seen lots of great "shots", but I haven't seen anything that gets the crowd going more than a blocked shot or a steal and taking the ball back down the court for a lay-in. -- Glenn Sharber, San Antonio, Tex.
Glenn,
Your point is valid in the sense that offense is only half the game. Every accomplishment by the offense is in equal part a failure by the defense. My point isn't that defense will ruin the game -- it's that fans are generally interested in seeing scoring (just ask Gary Bettman), so a steady decline probably isn't the best thing for the league's long-term health.
A major reason for lower scoring is in the last decade the players are much younger coming into the game, with far fewer college players that make it to the NBA playing three or four years, and as we saw in the last several years far more high school kids. When those high schoolers play against suddenly much, much tougher competition, their shooting percentage goes down. Even the foreign players are younger, and all of these guys have much less time to hone their shooting skills. -- Will Sanio
Will,
Young guys showing up green often is blamed for the NBA's problems, but I doubt it's true for two reasons. First, several of the guys who jumped to the NBA early were the ones providing most of the offense -- before they would have graduated college. Eddy Curry led the league in field-goal percentage last year; he was 20. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Tracy McGrady all were NBA All-Stars before their college classes graduated -- can you imagine how the offenses would have looked without them?
But the second, and more overlooked point, is this: As bad as a Nikoloz Tskitishvili or Kwame Brown looks on offense when they enter the league at 18, they're far, far worse on defense. The general rule of thumb is that a player's offense comes around much sooner than his defense. When the young guys who enter the league now are getting schooled on defense, that's boosting the offensive totals, not keeping them down.
John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/basketball/nba/11/10/beat.1111/index.html
-----------------------------------------
Alarming starts
A few players haven't had their wake-up call yet
Posted: Tuesday November 4, 2003 2:39AM; Updated: Tuesday November 11, 2003 2:11AM
By John Hollinger, SI.com
McGrady and the ice-cold Magic have already dropped five home games.
Atlantic Division teams over .500; Boston and Washington are in first place at 3-3. The division's seven teams are just 9-25 against the rest of the NBA.
We're 2-2, that's not .500. There's a difference between 10-10, 5-5, and 2-2. Five hundred? That's like saying a team that's 2-0 is 1,000 percent and undefeated on the season." -- Richard Jefferson of the Nets, demonstrating the dangers of leaving school early.
"If that fan was a little more professional, you know, I probably wouldn't have had to do that." -- Bonzi Wells of the Trail Blazers, explaining why he flipped off a fan during an unintentionally hilarious interview.
Bbbbbbbrrrrrrrrring!!!!!
The alarm clock for the start of the season went off two weeks ago, but if you look around the league, there are a few guys who have been hitting the snooze button.
While two weeks isn't a very large sample -- it's about six games for most teams -- there are still some players whose performance is so far below their established norms that it's starting to get, well, alarming.
Here's a look at some of the guys who have the masses worried. I picked out 10 players who have played at least 100 minutes -- making it a little harder to just write it off as a brief slump -- and have massively underachieved their efforts of a year ago.
I'll call them the All Wake-Up Call team. However you want to describe them, they're badly in need of a jolt:
Tracy McGrady, Magic -- An MVP candidate a year ago, McGrady has been swarmed by zone defenses that the Magic can't seem to solve. It doesn't help that he's also not making shots. McGrady's average of 21.4 points a game doesn't seem bad until you remember that last season he averaged 32.1. In addition, his 35 percent shooting has included a number of missed jumpers that reliably found the bottom of the net in 2002-03.
Alonzo Mourning, Nets -- It's great that he's healthy again, and I wish him continued vigor in his comeback, but 7.7 points and 3.0 rebounds a night probably wasn't what the Nets had in mind when they gave him a four-year deal this summer -- especially given the limited shot-blocking (just three this year) that the two-time Defensive Player of the Year has provided.
Juwan Howard, Magic -- When Orlando added Howard during the offseason, it was Drew Gooden that people thought might struggle, as he was pushed into a less suitable small forward role. But instead Howard has been the dud. Along with McGrady, the free-agent pickup has been the other half of a disappointing Orlando attack. How can somebody score 18 per game on 45 percent shooting for last year's pathetic Nuggets but only average 14 on 39 percent shooting for this year's Magic? Hopefully, Doc Rivers has the answer.
Speedy Claxton, Warriors -- Claxton had a golden opportunity to establish himself as Golden State's point guard while Nick Van Exel recovered from knee surgery. He punted that chance like he was Ray Guy. Claxton hasn't shot as badly as some of the other guys on this list, but has shown zero aptitude for running the offense. He's averaging nearly as many turnovers (2.2 a game) as assists (2.6), a definite no-no for an aspiring point guard.
Alvin Williams, Raptors -- At least in this case we know what the problem is. Williams has bone spurs in his ankle, and he is trying in vain to play with them. Let's put it this way: Milt Palacio shouldn't even be in the league right now, and Williams is about to lose his job to the guy. He's shooting a miserable 22.5 percent from the floor and averaging just 3.8 points a game, yet he's still on pace to set a career high in turnovers with two a contest.
Lamond Murray, Raptors -- He was supposed to provide instant offense off the bench, but instead he's conducting a masonry clinic. After missing all of last year with foot problems, Murray has hit just 28 percent of his shots and is scoring only 7.7 a game, little more than half his career average. Toronto is last in scoring despite Vince Carter's outstanding play, but that fact is less surprising after examining the performance of Williams and Murray.
Michael Finley, Mavericks -- Some have argued that Finley's struggles stem from the fact that he can't get shots in the Mavs' offense now that Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison have been added to the equation. But the real problem is that he can't make the shots he's taking. Finley is still getting 10 field goal attempts a game, but has missed one open jumper after another en route to a miserable 33.8 shooting percentage. And despite the reduced attempts, he's still making nearly as many turnovers (1.4 a game) as last year (1.6).
Travis Best, Mavericks -- So far he's played more like Travis Worst. While Dallas' offensive output has been pretty muted this year, the fact is that the Mavs' other new additions -- Jamison, Walker and Tony Delk -- have played well. The problem is that Finley can't get going, as mentioned above, and Best has been a train wreck. He's shooting 17 percent, and his scoring average is a measly 2.6 a game. He's struggled so much that when Steve Nash sat out on Thursday, Delk -- who takes to the point like a fish to land -- got the start instead of Best.
Lamar Odom, Heat -- The two big knocks on Odom have been that he's an erratic shooter and that he's turnover prone. He's been busily proving his critics right on both counts. Odom has converted just 33 percent of his shots and his 10.4 scoring average is hugely disappointing for the alleged focal point of the offense. In addition, his average of 2.6 turnovers a game leads the team. The winless Heat's problems run much deeper than Odom, but he's done nothing to justify his $60 million deal.
Eddy Curry, Bulls -- As though it would be possible to make this list and not have a Bull on it. Curry's numbers are disappointing enough -- 12 points, four rebounds and nearly three turnovers a game. But the real killer is his defense, or rather his lack of it. More often than not, when opposing guards drive the lane Curry is nowhere in sight. His lethargic play has been one of the key's to Chicago's stream of blowout losses to start the season.
************ JAHIDI WHITE BREVIN KNIGHT TRADE *********
• It was a footnote to this past weekend, but don't underestimate the impact of the Jahidi White-Brevin Knight trade. White is a monstrous bruiser who can match muscles with Shaq as well as anybody; it amazed me that it took this long for a Western team to acquire him. The deal makes Phoenix a much more realistic threat to climb into the conference's elite.
• The Blunder of the Week award goes to the artist formerly known as Nene Hilario. During Friday's Clippers-Nuggets game, Nene occupied two lanes while Earl Boykins shot a free throw with a minute left. Boykins' shot was good but it was waved off because of Nene's careless lane violation. That point ended up making the difference as the Clippers tied the score and then won in overtime.
Last week's Statitudes on the decline of scoring this season produced a bevy of emails. While offenses came to life in week two, it's pretty clear the article hit a nerve with fans who want to see more scoring.
At least we should be happy that NBA referees no longer call palming and carrying. If not for that, teams probably wouldn't average 90 points per game combined. -- David W., Los Angeles
The issue is more simple than that.The NBA based on pure talent has been in a decline since the 1980s. If Jordan had not arrived, they may have been declared DOA years ago. -- Steve Cagen
Why do you think these basketball wannabes will shoot any better with two more weeks of training camp when they haven't practiced enough for the 10 years preceding that? It's pure and simple that the problem is with too much emphasis on dunking, "athleticism" and post-dunk showboating ... the NBA is now the "Nothing But Airballs" league. -- Doug Baldelli, Shreveport, La.
I got a steady stream of letters along the lines of the three above, but I think it's more than just deficient shooting. Why? Because the league free-throw percentage has hardly budged. It's right around 75 percent, just like it was last year and the year before and the year before that ... you get the point. The problem crops up when guys are shooting with a warm body leaning on them, the kind of shots you can only take during games and practices.
Another thing to consider about low scoring in the NBA: There are 11 new head coaches. That means many teams are learning new offenses. I'm not exactly sure about all of the teams, but I know Rick Carlisle said he was worried about the Pacers getting the new defensive scheme down before concentrating more on the offense (which I think helps explain the offensive abomination against the Nuggets). -- Sam Adams
Sam,
Your theory is an intriguing one, and a couple of other people offered it up as well. Intuitively, it makes sense, but the offensive woes of the first week weren't limited to those 11 teams. The clubs with holdover coaches experienced the same struggles -- most notably Orlando.
It sounds as though you're saying that defense will destroy the game of basketball. It certainly hasn't destroyed baseball and football ... or even soccer. If you take defense out of the game, why not just give each team 100 uncontested shots as in those "spot shooting contests." Then the winner can be declared and everyone can go home happy ... and early.
I've seen lots of great "shots", but I haven't seen anything that gets the crowd going more than a blocked shot or a steal and taking the ball back down the court for a lay-in. -- Glenn Sharber, San Antonio, Tex.
Glenn,
Your point is valid in the sense that offense is only half the game. Every accomplishment by the offense is in equal part a failure by the defense. My point isn't that defense will ruin the game -- it's that fans are generally interested in seeing scoring (just ask Gary Bettman), so a steady decline probably isn't the best thing for the league's long-term health.
A major reason for lower scoring is in the last decade the players are much younger coming into the game, with far fewer college players that make it to the NBA playing three or four years, and as we saw in the last several years far more high school kids. When those high schoolers play against suddenly much, much tougher competition, their shooting percentage goes down. Even the foreign players are younger, and all of these guys have much less time to hone their shooting skills. -- Will Sanio
Will,
Young guys showing up green often is blamed for the NBA's problems, but I doubt it's true for two reasons. First, several of the guys who jumped to the NBA early were the ones providing most of the offense -- before they would have graduated college. Eddy Curry led the league in field-goal percentage last year; he was 20. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Tracy McGrady all were NBA All-Stars before their college classes graduated -- can you imagine how the offenses would have looked without them?
But the second, and more overlooked point, is this: As bad as a Nikoloz Tskitishvili or Kwame Brown looks on offense when they enter the league at 18, they're far, far worse on defense. The general rule of thumb is that a player's offense comes around much sooner than his defense. When the young guys who enter the league now are getting schooled on defense, that's boosting the offensive totals, not keeping them down.
John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.
