Are the Cardinals ‘close’ to turning a corner?

[daves]

In item #5 of Mike Sando's "Pick Six" article in The Athletic this week, he asks, "If Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon is correct in saying his Cardinals are ‘close’ to turning a corner, why does his team lag behind others led by second-year coaches? Here’s the key context." Here are some highlights:

Won-lost records for the 2023 hiring class suggest the Cardinals, who lost 13-9 to the Los Angeles Rams and are now 7-9, have failed to keep pace.

[Table: Demeco Ryans' Texans are 19-14, Sean Payton's Broncos 17-16, Shane Steichen's Colts 16-17, Gannon's Cardinals 11-22, and Frank Reich was fired from the Panthers after going 1-10.]

The situation is more complicated than that. Every other coach in the table above used a first-round pick to select a quarterback in the 2023 or 2024 drafts. Gannon inherited Kyler Murray, who was coming off ACL surgery and whose contract carries the highest salary-cap charge for any player in the NFL this season ($49.2 million).

Of the five coaches hired in 2023, Gannon is one of only two (Sean Payton) whose win total will improve in his second season. The biggest disappointment of his tenure: Arizona’s inability to field a better defense. The Cardinals rank 24th in defensive EPA per play this season, compared to sixth for DeMeco Ryans’ Texans.

The Cardinals held the third pick in 2023 draft and could have selected Will Anderson Jr. or Devon Witherspoon, the consensus elite defensive players. Instead, they traded the third and 105th picks to Houston for selections they used to draft six players after additional maneuvering:

• OT Paris Johnson Jr. (2023 first round)
• Edge BJ Ojulari (2023 second)
• CB Garrett Williams (2023 third)
• Edge Darius Robinson (2024 first)
• G Isaiah Adams (2024 third)
• CB Elijah Jones (2024 third)

Arizona sought quantity over quality in restocking a barren roster via that trade, but the team has gotten neither of those things on the defensive side of the ball to this point.

The four defensive players Arizona netted from its trade with Houston have combined to play 20 of 64 possible games this season, with 11 starts.

Ojulari suffered a torn ACL in camp. Robinson suffered a calf injury in camp and has averaged 28 snaps per game since debuting in Week 13. Jones suffered a heel injury in preseason and has not played. Williams has shown promise as a slot corner.

Meanwhile, Anderson has helped the Texans field the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense by EPA per play. Witherspoon has emerged as a top player for Seattle’s defense, which jumped from 27th in defensive EPA per play last season into the top 10 now.

[Table: in 2022, the Texans had 3.5 wins, Cardinals had 4, Colts 4.5, Broncos 5, Panthers 7. So far in 2024, the Cardinals and Colts have 7 wins, the Texans and Broncos have 9, and the Panthers have yet another new coach.]

Despite all that, two games separate the 7-9 Cardinals from the 9-7 Texans and 9-7 Seahawks in the win column this season.

“I know we’re close,” Gannon said after the loss to the Rams.

 

[unseenaz]

We’re further away now than we were to start the season. We have a huge question mark at the most important position & our best players on defense are aging.

 

[kerouac9]

Yes, they’re close because they’re playing a trash schedule next year. If Gannon can’t find 10-11 wins among that motley crew, he deserves to be fired.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If the 3 players on defense that either saw no time, or little time this year (Ojulari, Robinson, Jones) make major contributions next year and we spend even more capital on the defense, we have a good chance to be in the playoffs. Even with our offensive struggles. If we don't make the playoffs next year, cut Murray, fire Gannon, and re-tool again.

 

[Redsz]

In item #5 of Mike Sando's "Pick Six" article in The Athletic this week, he asks, "If Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon is correct in saying his Cardinals are ‘close’ to turning a corner, why does his team lag behind others led by second-year coaches? Here’s the key context." Here are some highlights:

Paris - Good but not great OT
Ojalari - Bust due to injuries
Williams - One of the best slot CBs in the NFL
Robinson - Has not flashed and has been injured most of the season
Adams - Turning into an average starter with some potential upside
Jones - Injured and has only played in a handful of games

Very much a mixed bag IMO. Not a total disaster but not a home run either.

 

[slanidrac16]

If the 3 players on defense that either saw no time, or little time this year (Ojulari, Robinson, Jones) make major contributions next year and we spend even more capital on the defense, we have a good chance to be in the playoffs. Even with our offensive struggles. If we don't make the playoffs next year, cut Murray, fire Gannon, and re-tool again.

Disagree. If you hold your opponent to score 13 points you should win.
Unfortunately, the future of the offense is a big question mark with Murray.

 

[BritCard]

I'll say the same thing I said before this season.

Whether this team is good or not comes down almost entirely to Kyler Murray.

The roster is good enough for 10+ wins if he plays well. The roster is weak enough for 6 wins if he plays poorly.

This really goes for any roster. You think the Vikings are where they are is Darnold plays like the Jets version? Or Tampa if Mayfield plays like the Panthers version?

It's rare for a roster to be good enough to carry a mediocre QB.

 

[BritCard]

"If Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon is correct in saying his Cardinals are ‘close’ to turning a corner, why does his team lag behind others led by second-year coaches?

Because they have better quarterbacks.

 

[TheCardFan]

The roster is good enough for 10+ wins if he plays well.

2024 Cardinals did not have a 10 win roster.

 

[CardNots]

NO, we aren’t close because the corner has already been turned.

 

[Stout]

In item #5 of Mike Sando's "Pick Six" article in The Athletic this week, he asks, "If Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon is correct in saying his Cardinals are ‘close’ to turning a corner, why does his team lag behind others led by second-year coaches? Here’s the key context." Here are some highlights:

Gawd no. We have most of the exact same major needs in year 3 of the "rebuild" as we did in year one. Hell, maybe we can re-sign Byron Murphy in the offseason to begin making up for some mistakes

 

[Stout]

NO, we aren’t close because the corner has already been turned.

Yeah, except it's the corner behind us

I keed, I keed.

 

[az jam]

I really don't know but as many said in other posts the off season in terms of free agency and the draft are critical for Monti. I also agree with K-9 that it looks like a very favorable schedule at this point. It is hard for me to be optimistic just hopeful.

 

[Harry]

A solid offseason away.

 

[slanidrac16]

We took baby steps the last couple of years. I understood with the mess Monti took over. Kyler on the shelf. McCoy suddenly grows old overnight. No db’s on the friggin roster. O-line was a mess.
But we are past that now. Yes we need a good draft. And we need Robinson, MHJ and others to take a step up. We need some injured players to return like Ojilari, Hernandez and others.
It’s year 3. We need to add some experienced solid players. We need 1 or 2 difference makers either by trade or free agency.

 

[BirdGangThing]

corners are the least of our worries - we won't know what we have until we can get pressure upfront

 

[kerouac9]

corners are the least of our worries - we won't know what we have until we can get pressure upfront

Yup. I think it's pretty clear that by week 18 the strongest unit on the team is the DB group. I'm very comfortable with the guys we have.

People need to remember that Ojulari was NOTHING as a rookie. He was Zaven Collins as a pass rusher and Dennis Gardeck as a run defender. He not only has to come back healthy, he has to take a quantum leap forward in quality.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yup. I think it's pretty clear that by week 18 the strongest unit on the team is the DB group. I'm very comfortable with the guys we have.

People need to remember that Ojulari was NOTHING as a rookie. He was Zaven Collins as a pass rusher and Dennis Gardeck as a run defender. He not only has to come back healthy, he has to take a quantum leap forward in quality.

Agree with the secondary. It's very solid already and has room for improvement.

ILB looks good as well if they re-sign White. Probably could use young depth as Pappoe is a huge meh for me and Barnes is not much better.

EDGE is bad. No way around that. Maybe Monti will give it the DL FA/draft treatment but with more success and impact.

DL is tough because it still needs a difference maker inside. DRob was a project when he was drafted and will take some time. Other than that, the unit is very deep but just few difference makers.

Good news is that I feel the defensive staff will get the most out of the players it adds. I think we will see that with Jones and Nichols. I think Monti will revamp the EDGE room though I am curious to see who he targets.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Agree with the secondary. It's very solid already and has room for improvement.

ILB looks good as well if they re-sign White. Probably could use young depth as Pappoe is a huge meh for me and Barnes is not much better.

EDGE is bad. No way around that. Maybe Monti will give it the DL FA/draft treatment but with more success and impact.

DL is tough because it still needs a difference maker inside. DRob was a project when he was drafted and will take some time. Other than that, the unit is very deep but just few difference makers.

Good news is that I feel the defensive staff will get the most out of the players it adds. I think we will see that with Jones and Nichols. I think Monti will revamp the EDGE room though I am curious to see who he targets.

Yes I agree that Edge is the biggest area of need. I would like to see a proven vet brought in along with another developmental option from the draft.

I wouldn't mind an upgrade at NT as well.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yes I agree that Edge is the biggest area of need. I would like to see a proven vet brought in along with another developmental option from the draft.

I wouldn't mind an upgrade at NT as well.

I think there is a good chance you will see two FAs and a top 50 pick added to the EDGE room. (One of those will likely be re-signing Browning)

My guess.

Zaven Collins
BJ Ojulari
FA Baron Browning
FA
Xavier Thomas
TOP 50
Luketa

 

[kerouac9]

I think there is a good chance you will see two FAs and a top 50 pick added to the EDGE room. (One of those will likely be re-signing Browning)

My guess.

Zaven Collins
BJ Ojulari
FA Baron Browning
FA
Xavier Thomas
TOP 50
Luketa

How many do you think we'll take to camp? Victor Dimukeje was getting snaps ahead of Luketa the past couple weeks. Julian Okwara was also getting snaps ahead of Luketa.

You'd love to have an option to push that guy off the roster. Or a pass rush specialist.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Disagree. If you hold your opponent to score 13 points you should win.
Unfortunately, the future of the offense is a big question mark with Murray.

Of course you should. I was speaking on a larger, season level...

 

[TheCardFan]

Zaven Collins
BJ Ojulari
FA Baron Browning
FA
Xavier Thomas

Pure speculation at this point but outside of Abdul Carter, how many edges in round 1 will come in and start day one/be a difference maker?

Are we just looking to add a bunch of guys like Browning/Thomas/Ojulari/etc and see if we can get one to develop?

Makes me lean a bit toward a known commodity edge in FA (Reddick or Sweat) and then draft DT in round 1.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Pure speculation at this point but outside of Abdul Carter, how many edges in round 1 will come in and start day one/be a difference maker?

Are we just looking to add a bunch of guys like Browning/Thomas/Ojulari/etc and see if we can get one to develop?

Makes me lean a bit toward a known commodity edge in FA (Reddick or Sweat) and then draft DT in round 1.

Ideally, you would draft the R1 Edge and then pay for the DT in free agency. The difference in pay between them, as well as the difference in skill between the truly elite players at each position vs the very good makes it the right choice.

However, drafting in the middle of the round means that the truly elite capable Edge guys should be gone, and the top tier DTs should be there for the taking.

 

[Chopper0080]

Pure speculation at this point but outside of Abdul Carter, how many edges in round 1 will come in and start day one/be a difference maker?

Are we just looking to add a bunch of guys like Browning/Thomas/Ojulari/etc and see if we can get one to develop?

Makes me lean a bit toward a known commodity edge in FA (Reddick or Sweat) and then draft DT in round 1.

I think it depends on what you are looking for with that first round edge. Mykel Williams could come in and start for AZ because of his physicality but I am not sold on him being a difference maker rushing the passer. Pearce on the other hand may take a little why to build up the strength to handle the run, but he would easily be the most athletic pass rusher on the team.

In terms of the plan, I feel it will mirror the DL plan. Sign two mid-level FAs and then draft a top 50 guy to develop.

In terms of EDGE vs DL in round 1, it is likely going to come down to who is on the board and the preference of Monti/Gannon because the board should be close.