It’s time to be honest with ourselves, one player doesn’t put this team over the hump. Making the playoffs one year in the next 3 isn’t really that big of an accomplishment. The goal needs to be sustained success, and with trades of players being so rare, the way teams have to build is through the draft and picking players off of the scrap heap.
I look to the Patriots who stockpile picks like a squirrel waiting for winter, and I think how other organizations are stupid for not following the same model. They’re rebuilding on the fly and it’s one of the most impressive achievements I’ve seen in sports. Normally a team has to suck to build like they have, but they’re doing it while winning. The Cards are lucky in the sense that they’ve got some high picks J
Now that Horton is in place, he’ll be bringing his system with him. Once a system is in place, ownership needs to buy in. It needs to be willing to spend the money to get the players necessary to play the Steeler style defense. That means a strong Front 7 and a talented Front 7. This draft class is absolutely perfect to address the issue of the Cards having a small Front 7.
Graves needs to move guys who don’t fit and aren’t willing to commit. As much as it sucks, that means Fitz, if he isn’t willing to negotiate a new contract. I understand that Fitz is the face of the franchise but the franchise is more important than any player. The Cards can’t get stuck out in the cold with only a 3rd round compensatory draft pick, if Fitz doesn’t sign. Fitz is an amazing player, and if everyone on the Cards had the same heart and skill that Fitz did, they wouldn’t be picking in the top 5. But, he’s a Wide Receiver who is limited by the confines of his position.
He will probably fetch two first round picks from the Patriots, and it’s a split that’s good for both sides. The Patriots get their #1 wide receiver, and the Cards get the tools to rebuild. Additionally, Fitz gets a chance to compete, which he won’t while on a team that’s rebuilding.
Dockett is a great player but he’s designed for the 4-3 and he doesn’t fit into the system that Horton will want to run. He’s too small to consistently hold the point of attack and he’s one of the reasons that the Cards got killed against the run. He’s not the only reason and he’s not the biggest offender, but he’s a talented individual who doesn’t fit the system. He’s a good enough player to secure some good draft picks, which is what the Cards need if they want to rebuild. He’ll also be 30 by the time next season rolls around.
Obviously moving the teams only Pro-Bowlers hurts the team badly next year, and that’s sort of the point. The Cards need a QB and I’m not seeing one in this year’s draft class, and Peyton Manning isn’t leaving the Colts.
The problem is that without a QB of the future there’s nothing that anyone can do. The team will suck regardless. So you might as well suck bad and get the #1 pick. I don’t see any QBs in this draft that will be perennial Pro-Bowlers. The one guy that sticks out is Andrew Luck in next year’s draft. He’ll be a franchise QB and even if the team misses out on Luck there are some other QBs that have a ton of potential like Lance Jones (Oklahoma) and Matt Berkley (USC).
The entire point of this plan is that not only do you get Andrew Luck next year, you have a team around him, and not just a team, but a team that’s young and that he can grow with. 16 rookies or 2nd year players would start next year.
Here’s what I would do:
1. Trades, Trades, and more Trades
A. Fitz to the Patriots for picks #17 and #28
I. Patriots do it because they badly need a #1 receiver and AJ Green and Julio Jones will be off the board by #17.
B. Dockett to Tamba Bay for picks #20 and #51
I. Tampa Bay does it because it gives them one of the best DEs in the league, and a running mate next to Gerald McCoy.
C. Pick #5 to the Vikings for Pick# 12, Pick #43, and Pick #172
I. Vikings do it because one of Gabbert/Newton will fall to #5 and new coaches means new QBs.
D. Pick #12 to the Eagles for Pick #23, Pick #54, and Pick #120
I. Eagles do it because they leapfrog the Lions and take Tyron Smith, who will instantly start for them because their O-Line sucks.
E. Pick #17 to the Bears for Pick #30 and Pick #62
I. Bears do it because they jump the teams going Tackle and will probably get their pick of any Tackle except Tyron Smith.
F. Pick #54 to the Patriots for Pick #74 and Pick #92
I. Patriots do it because they want higher picks. There’s not a ton of room on their roster anyway and Quality means more than Quantity to them.
G. Pick #30 to the Jaguars for Pick #49 and Pick #80
I. Jaguars do it because it gives them a low 1st rounder, right in the, Dalton/Locker/Mallet/Ponder sweepstakes.
20: Phil Taylor: Taylor’s a monster at DT, and it looks like he can play DE as well. With Dumpster Dan’s conditioning issues, having somebody who can slide over and play NT as well as huge. He’ll also play DT on the 4-Man Rush/Obvious Passing Down
23: Gabe Carimi: If Carimi can’t play LT (which I think he can) he’s a probowl RT/LG/RG. With Brown sucking, Keith’s bad start, Faneca on the verge of retiring, Sendlien being average at best, and Lutui’s contract status up in the air: The Cards need to go Offensive Line, early and often.
28: Justin Houston: My 2nd favorite OLB behind Quinn, Houston is exactly what the Cards need. He’s big, he’s physical, and he gets a pass rush. With OBScho, and Washington being pretty small, it’s a necessity to get some bigger LBs, or teams are going to run all over the defense again. He’s only 15 pounds lighter than Dockett FWIW. He’ll play DE in the 4-Man Rush package.
38: Harris: Considering DRC’s aversion to contact, another CB is probably a good idea. I don’t watch the CBs but much, but from what I’ve seen, Toler is pretty good, and Adams is okay, but can’t cover anybody over 6 feet tall. Harris would be a great addition, mainly because he isn’t afraid to hit, and can actually cover.
43: Cannon: With the O-Line being in tatters, I’d go Offensive Line as often as possible. Cannon was a great Tackle at TCU, and will be an excellent Guard in the NFL. He’s a hugely strong, punishing, run blocker, and he’s athletic enough to play Tackle if injuries happen which is a bonus.
49: Hankerson: Considering the fact that Fitz will be gone, Wide Reciever is a giant need. Hankerson is a tough kid and had outstanding production at Miami. He’s more of a long strider but he’s a pretty good athlete who excels at getting open.
51: Jonathon Baldwin: Baldwin’s a poor man’s AJ Green. He’s big, and he’s got a really impressive vertical leap. His issues are that he isn’t quite as fast as Green and that his hands are questionable at times. Another concern is that he should have dominated in college more than he did.
62: Drake Nevis: Nevis is a poor man’s Taylor. He was a NT in college but he’s not big enough to be a 2 gap NT. He is perfectly sized to be a monster DE though. He was excellent at getting pressure in college and he’s the type of DE that will get pressure and stuff the run. As an added bonus he slides down to DT during the 4-Man Rush/Obvious passing downs.
69: Barksdale: Barksdale was outstanding two years ago, and he has the potential to be a Franchise LT. He’s gone up against the best his entire college career and he’s performed very well. He had a somewhat down year last year which has raised some flags dropping him down to the top of the 3rd.
74: Titus Young: Young is a hugely talented WR who was the #3 Wide Receiver, but he had some bad interviews, which really tanked his value. While I do put a good amount of stock in the interviews, I won’t discount some excellent production.
80: Greg Little: Little’s a slot receiver who is extremely physical. He’s a real good athlete, and willing to go over the middle. He doesn’t have the speed to beat people down the field, but that’s his only weak point. He’s a good blocker as well.
92: John Moffit: He’s big, he’s strong, he had excellent production at Wisconsin. A bad combine really dropped his value, but I still rate on field production higher than Combine performance and I think he’s a steal at the end of the 3rd round.
103: Irving: He’s a thumper at ILB who had a really good combine. His production would have made him either the first or second ILB off the board, but he was involved in a car accident two years ago where he suffered a collapsed lung. Lungs that have collapsed once, are prone to collapsing again, and that worry will drop him down to the beginning of the 4th.
120: Jalil Brown: I went BPA here. Brown’s a very good corner but he falls because Jimmy Smith who also played at Colorado is better than he is. This creates quite a log jam at CB, but I didn’t want to do anymore trades.
136: Lance Kendricks: Outstanding production, good measurable. The only knock against Kendricks is that he’s slightly undersized. I think size is overrated in a TE, especially when they’ve shown that they can block, which Kendricks has.
171: Herzlich: More Linebacker depth. He’s a good leader. Between him and Irving we have the two ILBs that have gone through traumatic experiences. There are worse picks in the 6th round.
184: Alex Henery (K/P-Nebraska): Feeley’s 34 and Grahm is 37. Henery will be both a great punter and kicker for a long time. At pick 171 that seems like it’s not a huge price.
248: Chris Culliver: He’s young, he’s some safety depth and he can return punts and kicks. 7th round compensation picks FTW.
Base Defense
Taylor-Williams-Nevis (Campbell-Branch)
Schofield-Irving-Washinghton-Houston (Herzlich-Lennon)
DRC-Toler (Harris-Adams-Brown)
Rhodes-Wilson (Johnson-Culliver)
*It’s big, and it gets to the QB. Nevis, Taylor, Houston, Schofield can all get to the QB off the edge, and Washington and Irving aren’t stuck in cement up the middle either. The only member of the Front 7 that isn’t a legitimate threat to get to the QB is Dumpster Dan, and I can handle a NT that doesn’t get pressure if he’s stout against the run.
Nickel Defense
Campbell-Taylor-Nevis-Houston
Washington-Irving
DRC-Toler-Harris
Rhodes-Wilson
*More Pass Rush on the D-Line, Harris might be the best Nickel back in the NFL if Charles Woodson moves to Safety this year.
Offense
Barksdale-Levi Brown-Moffit-Cannon-Carimi
Breaston-Hankerson-Baldwin-Young-Little-(TE) Kendricks
Wells-Hightower-Stephens Howling
Skelton-Hall
*I like big offensive lineman. Levi Brown is an awful LT, but he’d be a monster at LG. The entire O-Line can run block, which I can only hope and pray makes Whiz decide to hand the ball off more. Bringing Breaston back is optional but I figure if we’re not paying Fitz and Dockett anymore worse things have happened.
The part of this plan that I know that nobody will like is that I would sit Luck the first 12 games of his rookie year. I’d do this for two reasons.
The first is that I wouldn’t want the QB of the future playing behind an O-Line with four 2nd year players. There’s no reason at all to risk Luck’s health his first year. Additionally, many QBs that start their first year and get hit a lot, develop bad habits. They’re so scared of getting crushed that their footwork gets sloppy, and they stop after their 2nd read. I’d rather give Luck the time necessary to develop as well as getting the O-Line more experienced before tossing Luck to the lions.
The second reason is that I don’t think a team composed of mainly 2nd year players would compete for a Super Bowl. If the team’s not in contention, there’s no point in struggling to mortgage the future when it’s possible to improve the team through better draft picks. If the Cards started out 8-0 then I’d say go for it, but I think it’s much more likely they start out 3-5 and steadily improves throughout the year.
Year 3 is the year that the team should take off, and I believe it will be competitive for a long time.
I look to the Patriots who stockpile picks like a squirrel waiting for winter, and I think how other organizations are stupid for not following the same model. They’re rebuilding on the fly and it’s one of the most impressive achievements I’ve seen in sports. Normally a team has to suck to build like they have, but they’re doing it while winning. The Cards are lucky in the sense that they’ve got some high picks J
Now that Horton is in place, he’ll be bringing his system with him. Once a system is in place, ownership needs to buy in. It needs to be willing to spend the money to get the players necessary to play the Steeler style defense. That means a strong Front 7 and a talented Front 7. This draft class is absolutely perfect to address the issue of the Cards having a small Front 7.
Graves needs to move guys who don’t fit and aren’t willing to commit. As much as it sucks, that means Fitz, if he isn’t willing to negotiate a new contract. I understand that Fitz is the face of the franchise but the franchise is more important than any player. The Cards can’t get stuck out in the cold with only a 3rd round compensatory draft pick, if Fitz doesn’t sign. Fitz is an amazing player, and if everyone on the Cards had the same heart and skill that Fitz did, they wouldn’t be picking in the top 5. But, he’s a Wide Receiver who is limited by the confines of his position.
He will probably fetch two first round picks from the Patriots, and it’s a split that’s good for both sides. The Patriots get their #1 wide receiver, and the Cards get the tools to rebuild. Additionally, Fitz gets a chance to compete, which he won’t while on a team that’s rebuilding.
Dockett is a great player but he’s designed for the 4-3 and he doesn’t fit into the system that Horton will want to run. He’s too small to consistently hold the point of attack and he’s one of the reasons that the Cards got killed against the run. He’s not the only reason and he’s not the biggest offender, but he’s a talented individual who doesn’t fit the system. He’s a good enough player to secure some good draft picks, which is what the Cards need if they want to rebuild. He’ll also be 30 by the time next season rolls around.
Obviously moving the teams only Pro-Bowlers hurts the team badly next year, and that’s sort of the point. The Cards need a QB and I’m not seeing one in this year’s draft class, and Peyton Manning isn’t leaving the Colts.
The problem is that without a QB of the future there’s nothing that anyone can do. The team will suck regardless. So you might as well suck bad and get the #1 pick. I don’t see any QBs in this draft that will be perennial Pro-Bowlers. The one guy that sticks out is Andrew Luck in next year’s draft. He’ll be a franchise QB and even if the team misses out on Luck there are some other QBs that have a ton of potential like Lance Jones (Oklahoma) and Matt Berkley (USC).
The entire point of this plan is that not only do you get Andrew Luck next year, you have a team around him, and not just a team, but a team that’s young and that he can grow with. 16 rookies or 2nd year players would start next year.
Here’s what I would do:
1. Trades, Trades, and more Trades
A. Fitz to the Patriots for picks #17 and #28
I. Patriots do it because they badly need a #1 receiver and AJ Green and Julio Jones will be off the board by #17.
B. Dockett to Tamba Bay for picks #20 and #51
I. Tampa Bay does it because it gives them one of the best DEs in the league, and a running mate next to Gerald McCoy.
C. Pick #5 to the Vikings for Pick# 12, Pick #43, and Pick #172
I. Vikings do it because one of Gabbert/Newton will fall to #5 and new coaches means new QBs.
D. Pick #12 to the Eagles for Pick #23, Pick #54, and Pick #120
I. Eagles do it because they leapfrog the Lions and take Tyron Smith, who will instantly start for them because their O-Line sucks.
E. Pick #17 to the Bears for Pick #30 and Pick #62
I. Bears do it because they jump the teams going Tackle and will probably get their pick of any Tackle except Tyron Smith.
F. Pick #54 to the Patriots for Pick #74 and Pick #92
I. Patriots do it because they want higher picks. There’s not a ton of room on their roster anyway and Quality means more than Quantity to them.
G. Pick #30 to the Jaguars for Pick #49 and Pick #80
I. Jaguars do it because it gives them a low 1st rounder, right in the, Dalton/Locker/Mallet/Ponder sweepstakes.
20: Phil Taylor: Taylor’s a monster at DT, and it looks like he can play DE as well. With Dumpster Dan’s conditioning issues, having somebody who can slide over and play NT as well as huge. He’ll also play DT on the 4-Man Rush/Obvious Passing Down
23: Gabe Carimi: If Carimi can’t play LT (which I think he can) he’s a probowl RT/LG/RG. With Brown sucking, Keith’s bad start, Faneca on the verge of retiring, Sendlien being average at best, and Lutui’s contract status up in the air: The Cards need to go Offensive Line, early and often.
28: Justin Houston: My 2nd favorite OLB behind Quinn, Houston is exactly what the Cards need. He’s big, he’s physical, and he gets a pass rush. With OBScho, and Washington being pretty small, it’s a necessity to get some bigger LBs, or teams are going to run all over the defense again. He’s only 15 pounds lighter than Dockett FWIW. He’ll play DE in the 4-Man Rush package.
38: Harris: Considering DRC’s aversion to contact, another CB is probably a good idea. I don’t watch the CBs but much, but from what I’ve seen, Toler is pretty good, and Adams is okay, but can’t cover anybody over 6 feet tall. Harris would be a great addition, mainly because he isn’t afraid to hit, and can actually cover.
43: Cannon: With the O-Line being in tatters, I’d go Offensive Line as often as possible. Cannon was a great Tackle at TCU, and will be an excellent Guard in the NFL. He’s a hugely strong, punishing, run blocker, and he’s athletic enough to play Tackle if injuries happen which is a bonus.
49: Hankerson: Considering the fact that Fitz will be gone, Wide Reciever is a giant need. Hankerson is a tough kid and had outstanding production at Miami. He’s more of a long strider but he’s a pretty good athlete who excels at getting open.
51: Jonathon Baldwin: Baldwin’s a poor man’s AJ Green. He’s big, and he’s got a really impressive vertical leap. His issues are that he isn’t quite as fast as Green and that his hands are questionable at times. Another concern is that he should have dominated in college more than he did.
62: Drake Nevis: Nevis is a poor man’s Taylor. He was a NT in college but he’s not big enough to be a 2 gap NT. He is perfectly sized to be a monster DE though. He was excellent at getting pressure in college and he’s the type of DE that will get pressure and stuff the run. As an added bonus he slides down to DT during the 4-Man Rush/Obvious passing downs.
69: Barksdale: Barksdale was outstanding two years ago, and he has the potential to be a Franchise LT. He’s gone up against the best his entire college career and he’s performed very well. He had a somewhat down year last year which has raised some flags dropping him down to the top of the 3rd.
74: Titus Young: Young is a hugely talented WR who was the #3 Wide Receiver, but he had some bad interviews, which really tanked his value. While I do put a good amount of stock in the interviews, I won’t discount some excellent production.
80: Greg Little: Little’s a slot receiver who is extremely physical. He’s a real good athlete, and willing to go over the middle. He doesn’t have the speed to beat people down the field, but that’s his only weak point. He’s a good blocker as well.
92: John Moffit: He’s big, he’s strong, he had excellent production at Wisconsin. A bad combine really dropped his value, but I still rate on field production higher than Combine performance and I think he’s a steal at the end of the 3rd round.
103: Irving: He’s a thumper at ILB who had a really good combine. His production would have made him either the first or second ILB off the board, but he was involved in a car accident two years ago where he suffered a collapsed lung. Lungs that have collapsed once, are prone to collapsing again, and that worry will drop him down to the beginning of the 4th.
120: Jalil Brown: I went BPA here. Brown’s a very good corner but he falls because Jimmy Smith who also played at Colorado is better than he is. This creates quite a log jam at CB, but I didn’t want to do anymore trades.
136: Lance Kendricks: Outstanding production, good measurable. The only knock against Kendricks is that he’s slightly undersized. I think size is overrated in a TE, especially when they’ve shown that they can block, which Kendricks has.
171: Herzlich: More Linebacker depth. He’s a good leader. Between him and Irving we have the two ILBs that have gone through traumatic experiences. There are worse picks in the 6th round.
184: Alex Henery (K/P-Nebraska): Feeley’s 34 and Grahm is 37. Henery will be both a great punter and kicker for a long time. At pick 171 that seems like it’s not a huge price.
248: Chris Culliver: He’s young, he’s some safety depth and he can return punts and kicks. 7th round compensation picks FTW.
Base Defense
Taylor-Williams-Nevis (Campbell-Branch)
Schofield-Irving-Washinghton-Houston (Herzlich-Lennon)
DRC-Toler (Harris-Adams-Brown)
Rhodes-Wilson (Johnson-Culliver)
*It’s big, and it gets to the QB. Nevis, Taylor, Houston, Schofield can all get to the QB off the edge, and Washington and Irving aren’t stuck in cement up the middle either. The only member of the Front 7 that isn’t a legitimate threat to get to the QB is Dumpster Dan, and I can handle a NT that doesn’t get pressure if he’s stout against the run.
Nickel Defense
Campbell-Taylor-Nevis-Houston
Washington-Irving
DRC-Toler-Harris
Rhodes-Wilson
*More Pass Rush on the D-Line, Harris might be the best Nickel back in the NFL if Charles Woodson moves to Safety this year.
Offense
Barksdale-Levi Brown-Moffit-Cannon-Carimi
Breaston-Hankerson-Baldwin-Young-Little-(TE) Kendricks
Wells-Hightower-Stephens Howling
Skelton-Hall
*I like big offensive lineman. Levi Brown is an awful LT, but he’d be a monster at LG. The entire O-Line can run block, which I can only hope and pray makes Whiz decide to hand the ball off more. Bringing Breaston back is optional but I figure if we’re not paying Fitz and Dockett anymore worse things have happened.
The part of this plan that I know that nobody will like is that I would sit Luck the first 12 games of his rookie year. I’d do this for two reasons.
The first is that I wouldn’t want the QB of the future playing behind an O-Line with four 2nd year players. There’s no reason at all to risk Luck’s health his first year. Additionally, many QBs that start their first year and get hit a lot, develop bad habits. They’re so scared of getting crushed that their footwork gets sloppy, and they stop after their 2nd read. I’d rather give Luck the time necessary to develop as well as getting the O-Line more experienced before tossing Luck to the lions.
The second reason is that I don’t think a team composed of mainly 2nd year players would compete for a Super Bowl. If the team’s not in contention, there’s no point in struggling to mortgage the future when it’s possible to improve the team through better draft picks. If the Cards started out 8-0 then I’d say go for it, but I think it’s much more likely they start out 3-5 and steadily improves throughout the year.
Year 3 is the year that the team should take off, and I believe it will be competitive for a long time.
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