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1. Stephen Drew
2. Conor Jackson
3. Carlos Quentin
4. Carlos Gonzales
5. Dustin Nippert
6. Miguel Montero
7. Garrett Mock
8. Matt Torra
9. Micah Owings
10. Sergio Santos
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Baseball America Top 10 Prospects
- Thread starter nathan
- Start date
1. Stephen Drew
2. Conor Jackson
3. Carlos Quentin
4. Carlos Gonzales
5. Dustin Nippert
6. Miguel Montero
7. Garrett Mock
8. Matt Torra
9. Micah Owings
10. Sergio Santos
Credit Coop981 for posting this on espn board.
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1) Stephen Drew:
Background: The talented trio of Drew brothers (Stephen and older siblings J.D. and Tim) have been drafted a total of four times in the first round—and Stephen almost made it five. The top position player available in the 2004 draft, Drew slipped to Arizona at No. 15 because of his bonus demands. Negotiations dragged into the spring of 2005, and he joined Camden in the independent Atlantic League. He finally signed with Arizona on May 30, minutes before a midnight Eastern Time deadline. Drew agreed to a five-year, $5.5 million major league contract that included a $4 million bonus and another $2 million in easily obtained incentives. His indy league time allowed Drew to hit the ground running at high Class A Lancaster, despite missing two weeks with a nagging hamstring injury. He tired at Double-A Tennessee as his layoff took its toll, but rebounded to hit .337 with six homers in the Arizona Fall League.
Strengths: One scout calls Drew “the perfect combination of baseball tools and baseball skills.” He’s a middle infielder who’s a middle-of-the-order run producer as well. He uses the same setup and has the same picture-perfect swing as his brother J.D. Drew has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone, and he has the ability to hit for average with power to all fields. His stroke has natural loft and plenty of backspin in its finish. Because he never played in a college summer league or with Team USA, Drew’s ability to hit with wood was a question mark, but that issue was eliminated with his strong pro debut. Defensively, Drew has good reactions and soft hands while flashing above-average arm strength. He’s a slightly above-average runner, though the hamstring troubles muted his speed.
Weaknesses: Questions about Drew’s makeup and desire lingered throughout his amateur career. His seeming unwillingness to play summer ball in college, as well his constant time off with injuries, left some to wonder if Drew’s desire matches his obvious abilities. J.D. has had the same tag in the major leagues. Drew’s stoic on-field demeanor is also often interpreted as a lack of fire, though he begged his way back into the lineup with the hamstring problems when the Diamondbacks wanted to shut him down. At the plate, Drew can overadjust to cold streaks, becoming either overly contact-oriented or pull-conscious. He’s often lazy in the field, waiting on grounders and flipping throws to first base. He doesn’t always show the first-step quickness to stay at shortstop, though he has the athleticism to be an above-average second baseman or center fielder.
The Future: In just three months, Drew established himself as Arizona’s shortstop of the future. However, the anticipated signing of 2005 first-round pick Justin Upton could move Drew to another position in the middle of the diamond. With no obvious candidate at the major league level, he’ll get a spring-training opportunity to win the major league starting job unless the Diamondbacks bring in a veteran.
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2) Conor Jackson
Background: Jackson has hit at least .300 at every minor league stop in his brief pro career, and his .354 average at Triple-A Tucson represented a career high when he was called up in late July. He was unable to replicate his success with Arizona due in part to his inconsistent playing time.
Strengths:
While Jackson’s bat is his only above-average tool, it’s exceptional. His simple mechanics and contact-oriented approach allow him to spray line drives into the gaps seemingly at will. His pitch recognition is off the charts, and he’s strong enough to hit at least 20 homers annually. Drafted as a third baseman, he now projects to be an average first baseman.
Weaknesses:
Jackson can be too passive at times at the plate, waiting for the perfect pitch instead of hammering one he could drive. Arizona straightened his stance at the end of 2004, but returned to a pronounced wide setup in 2005, sapping him of some power.
The Future:
Despite Tony Clark’s 30-homer season, the Diamondbacks want Jackson’s bat in their lineup. He should be their everyday first baseman in 2006.
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3) Carlos Quentin:
Background: Quentin’s pro debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery after he was drafted in 2003, but he has made up for lost time. He has batted .316 with 42 homers in two pro seasons.
Strengths:
Quentin is a classic corner outfielder with above-average hitting skills, plate discipline and power. Despite his plate-crowding tactics—he leads the minors with 72 hit by pitches in the last two years—he can cheat on inside pitches and crush them as easily as he takes outside pitches to the opposite field. His instincts make him a plus baserunner and have enabled him to get by in center field when he moved there in July. His arm hasn’t regained its pre-surgery strength but is solid for right field.
Weaknesses:
Quentin’s effort in center field was universally praised, but he just doesn’t cover enough ground to play there on a regular basis. His pure speed is average at best.
The Future:
Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green and Chad Tracy are blocking Quentin on Arizona’s outfield corners, but he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He could begin his big league career in center and move to right down the road.
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4) Carlos Gonzales
Background: Gonzales’ tools always had excited the Diamondbacks, and he exploded in 2005. He won the MVP award and ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the low Class A Midwest League, where managers rated him the best batting prospect, best defensive outfielder, best outfield arm and most exciting player.
Strengths:
Most aspects of the game come easy to Gonzales. He has a quick, fluid swing and strong wrists, projecting as a .300 hitter with 30-plus homer power. He makes adjustments like a veteran and commands the strike zone well. He takes good routes and has a plus arm in right field.
Weaknesses:
Gonzales’ speed is currently just average, and it should continue to regress as he fills out. He can get pull-happy and has some holes on the outer half of the plate, but those are easily correctable issues. He doesn’t walk as much as he could because he makes contact so easily.
The Future:
Gonzales has the chance to be a special player, but there’s no reason to rush him, especially considering Arizona’s outfield. He’ll begin 2006 in high Class A, where he could put up monster numbers in the friendly confines of Lancaster.
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5) Dustin Nippert
Background: Considered the system’s best pitching prospect entering 2004, Nippert pitched poorly before requiring Tommy John surgery that June. He surprisingly returned in late May and won the Double-A Southern League ERA title. He picked up his first major league win with five one-hit innings against the Dodgers in late September.
Strengths:
In a system loaded with elite offensive prospects, Nippert is one of the few pitchers with impact potential. His fastball sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96, and he can throw his spike curveball for strikes or bury it in the dirt. He has the makings of a decent changeup, and his height and arm action allow him to deliver all of his pitches on a steep downward plane.
Weaknesses:
Nippert struggled with his control in his brief big league stint, as he lost confidence and began to nibble at the plate. His fastball can get straight, but he makes up for it with his command and his downhill plane.
The Future:
Nippert will get the chance to win a rotation job in spring training. A little Triple-A seasoning wouldn’t hurt if he doesn’t make it.
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6) Miguel Montero
Background: Montero was seen as a catcher with some promise, but nobody expected his 2005 breakout campaign. He challenged for the California League triple crown and played in the Futures Game, though he slowed down in Double-A, in part because of a ribcage injury.
Strengths:
Under the tutelage of Lancaster manager Bill Plummer and hitting coach Damon Mashore, Montero shortened his swing and began to let his strength work for him at the plate. He focused on just putting good wood on the ball instead of trying to pull everything. He has average arm strength, blocks balls well and calls a good game.
Weaknesses:
Montero’s Double-A struggles also were the result of a return to bad habits. He began to overswing, allowing pitchers to expose his holes. His throws sometimes lack accuracy, and he erased a slightly below-average 32 percent of basestealers in 2005.
The Future:
Even the Diamondbacks were surprised by Montero’s explosion, and they rewarded him by assigning him to the Arizona Fall League. He’ll begin 2006 by trying to show he can handle Double-A.
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7) Garrett Mock
Background: Mock was seen as a first-round talent entering his junior year at Houston, but a broken ankle hurt his performance and he fell to the third round. In his first full season, he gutted through pitching at one of the friendlier hitter’s parks in baseball to lead the California League in wins and strikeouts.
Strengths:
Mock has a full arsenal, touching 94-95 mph with his four-seam fastball while mixing in a 88-91 cutter with excellent movement. His slider and curveball are both quality offerings, and he commands all of his pitches well. He’s a big-bodied power pitcher who maintains his stuff deep into games.
Weaknesses:
Scouts remain concerned about the difference between Mock’s stuff and results. He gives up too many hits, leaving too many pitches over the heart of the plate when he clearly has the command to work the corners. His changeup needs more work, but it should be an average pitch in the end.
The Future:
Mock’s bulldog approach helped him survive the tough environment of the California League, and with a few refinements, he could take off. He’ll start 2006 in Double-A.
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8) Matt Torra
Background: Torra was seen as just a solid arm with a weak program entering 2005, but he became a supplemental first-round pick who signed for $1.025 million after leading NCAA Division I with a 1.14 ERA for a 16-33 Massachusetts team. After racking up high pitch counts for the Minutemen, he worked just 10 innings in his pro debut before being shut down with biceps tendinitis.
Strengths:
Torra made significant improvements to his physical condition prior to the 2005 season, and his stuff took off. He works low in the strike zone with a 92-94 mph fastball that he can dial up to 96. He throws a power curve with true 12-to-6 break that he can begin or end in the strike zone with equal effectiveness. His mechanics are simple and repeatable.
Weaknesses:
Torra has yet to face any sort of advanced competition. His changeup is still a work in progress. His heavy college workload was a concern to some scouts.
The Future:
Torra should be 100 percent for spring training and will begin 2006 at one of Arizona’s two Class A affiliates. He could reach Double-A by the end of the year.
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9) Micah Owings
Background: The Rockies drafted Owings in the second round in 2002 after he made a run at the national high school career home run record. A two-way star at Georgia Tech, he fell to the 19th round (Cubs) in 2004 because of signability concerns. After transferring to Tulane and leading the Green Wave in homers and pitching strikeouts in 2005, he went in the third round and signed for $440,000.
Strengths:
Scouts long preferred Owings’ power arm to his bat, and he showed why in his pro debut. He saw his fastball jump to 94-97 mph as a reliever. He also made some adjustments with his mid-80s slider, which became a plus pitch with late downward break. He’s an aggressive strike-thrower who’s not afraid to work inside.
Weaknesses:
Owings’ changeup is average at best, and will be his point of emphasis when he returns to the rotation in 2006. He still needs to mature from thrower to pitcher, working harder on setting hitters up instead of challenging them on every pitch.
The Future:
Arizona believes Owings could move quickly as a reliever but offers more value as a starter. He’ll most likely open 2006 in the Lancaster rotation.
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10) Sergio Santos
Background: Arizona continually has pushed Santos since it drafted him in 2002’s first round, and he finally hit a wall at Triple-A in 2005. He didn’t get his average above .200 until late May, and he hit only one home run after July 1.
Strengths:
Santos’ pure tools remain impressive despite his poor performance. He has plus bat speed and good power for a shortstop. While he slumped at the plate, he did improve significantly in the field. Santos has soft hands and an above-average arm, and he made great strides in his reads and work on double plays.
Weaknesses:
Santos overreacted to his slow start and fell apart mechanically, leaving him susceptible to inside pitches and completely inept against lefthanders (.148 average). While he has a quick first step at shortstop, his speed limits his range, and he may be better suited for third base.
The Future:
Despite his rough season, most scouts still see significant potential in Santos. Clearly not ready for the majors, he’ll return to Triple-A. If Stephen Drew is assigned to Tucson, Santos will move to a different position to accommodate him.
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1) Stephen Drew:
Background: The talented trio of Drew brothers (Stephen and older siblings J.D. and Tim) have been drafted a total of four times in the first round—and Stephen almost made it five. The top position player available in the 2004 draft, Drew slipped to Arizona at No. 15 because of his bonus demands. Negotiations dragged into the spring of 2005, and he joined Camden in the independent Atlantic League. He finally signed with Arizona on May 30, minutes before a midnight Eastern Time deadline. Drew agreed to a five-year, $5.5 million major league contract that included a $4 million bonus and another $2 million in easily obtained incentives. His indy league time allowed Drew to hit the ground running at high Class A Lancaster, despite missing two weeks with a nagging hamstring injury. He tired at Double-A Tennessee as his layoff took its toll, but rebounded to hit .337 with six homers in the Arizona Fall League.
Strengths: One scout calls Drew “the perfect combination of baseball tools and baseball skills.” He’s a middle infielder who’s a middle-of-the-order run producer as well. He uses the same setup and has the same picture-perfect swing as his brother J.D. Drew has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone, and he has the ability to hit for average with power to all fields. His stroke has natural loft and plenty of backspin in its finish. Because he never played in a college summer league or with Team USA, Drew’s ability to hit with wood was a question mark, but that issue was eliminated with his strong pro debut. Defensively, Drew has good reactions and soft hands while flashing above-average arm strength. He’s a slightly above-average runner, though the hamstring troubles muted his speed.
Weaknesses: Questions about Drew’s makeup and desire lingered throughout his amateur career. His seeming unwillingness to play summer ball in college, as well his constant time off with injuries, left some to wonder if Drew’s desire matches his obvious abilities. J.D. has had the same tag in the major leagues. Drew’s stoic on-field demeanor is also often interpreted as a lack of fire, though he begged his way back into the lineup with the hamstring problems when the Diamondbacks wanted to shut him down. At the plate, Drew can overadjust to cold streaks, becoming either overly contact-oriented or pull-conscious. He’s often lazy in the field, waiting on grounders and flipping throws to first base. He doesn’t always show the first-step quickness to stay at shortstop, though he has the athleticism to be an above-average second baseman or center fielder.
The Future: In just three months, Drew established himself as Arizona’s shortstop of the future. However, the anticipated signing of 2005 first-round pick Justin Upton could move Drew to another position in the middle of the diamond. With no obvious candidate at the major league level, he’ll get a spring-training opportunity to win the major league starting job unless the Diamondbacks bring in a veteran.
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2) Conor Jackson
Background: Jackson has hit at least .300 at every minor league stop in his brief pro career, and his .354 average at Triple-A Tucson represented a career high when he was called up in late July. He was unable to replicate his success with Arizona due in part to his inconsistent playing time.
Strengths:
While Jackson’s bat is his only above-average tool, it’s exceptional. His simple mechanics and contact-oriented approach allow him to spray line drives into the gaps seemingly at will. His pitch recognition is off the charts, and he’s strong enough to hit at least 20 homers annually. Drafted as a third baseman, he now projects to be an average first baseman.
Weaknesses:
Jackson can be too passive at times at the plate, waiting for the perfect pitch instead of hammering one he could drive. Arizona straightened his stance at the end of 2004, but returned to a pronounced wide setup in 2005, sapping him of some power.
The Future:
Despite Tony Clark’s 30-homer season, the Diamondbacks want Jackson’s bat in their lineup. He should be their everyday first baseman in 2006.
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3) Carlos Quentin:
Background: Quentin’s pro debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery after he was drafted in 2003, but he has made up for lost time. He has batted .316 with 42 homers in two pro seasons.
Strengths:
Quentin is a classic corner outfielder with above-average hitting skills, plate discipline and power. Despite his plate-crowding tactics—he leads the minors with 72 hit by pitches in the last two years—he can cheat on inside pitches and crush them as easily as he takes outside pitches to the opposite field. His instincts make him a plus baserunner and have enabled him to get by in center field when he moved there in July. His arm hasn’t regained its pre-surgery strength but is solid for right field.
Weaknesses:
Quentin’s effort in center field was universally praised, but he just doesn’t cover enough ground to play there on a regular basis. His pure speed is average at best.
The Future:
Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green and Chad Tracy are blocking Quentin on Arizona’s outfield corners, but he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He could begin his big league career in center and move to right down the road.
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4) Carlos Gonzales
Background: Gonzales’ tools always had excited the Diamondbacks, and he exploded in 2005. He won the MVP award and ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the low Class A Midwest League, where managers rated him the best batting prospect, best defensive outfielder, best outfield arm and most exciting player.
Strengths:
Most aspects of the game come easy to Gonzales. He has a quick, fluid swing and strong wrists, projecting as a .300 hitter with 30-plus homer power. He makes adjustments like a veteran and commands the strike zone well. He takes good routes and has a plus arm in right field.
Weaknesses:
Gonzales’ speed is currently just average, and it should continue to regress as he fills out. He can get pull-happy and has some holes on the outer half of the plate, but those are easily correctable issues. He doesn’t walk as much as he could because he makes contact so easily.
The Future:
Gonzales has the chance to be a special player, but there’s no reason to rush him, especially considering Arizona’s outfield. He’ll begin 2006 in high Class A, where he could put up monster numbers in the friendly confines of Lancaster.
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5) Dustin Nippert
Background: Considered the system’s best pitching prospect entering 2004, Nippert pitched poorly before requiring Tommy John surgery that June. He surprisingly returned in late May and won the Double-A Southern League ERA title. He picked up his first major league win with five one-hit innings against the Dodgers in late September.
Strengths:
In a system loaded with elite offensive prospects, Nippert is one of the few pitchers with impact potential. His fastball sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96, and he can throw his spike curveball for strikes or bury it in the dirt. He has the makings of a decent changeup, and his height and arm action allow him to deliver all of his pitches on a steep downward plane.
Weaknesses:
Nippert struggled with his control in his brief big league stint, as he lost confidence and began to nibble at the plate. His fastball can get straight, but he makes up for it with his command and his downhill plane.
The Future:
Nippert will get the chance to win a rotation job in spring training. A little Triple-A seasoning wouldn’t hurt if he doesn’t make it.
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6) Miguel Montero
Background: Montero was seen as a catcher with some promise, but nobody expected his 2005 breakout campaign. He challenged for the California League triple crown and played in the Futures Game, though he slowed down in Double-A, in part because of a ribcage injury.
Strengths:
Under the tutelage of Lancaster manager Bill Plummer and hitting coach Damon Mashore, Montero shortened his swing and began to let his strength work for him at the plate. He focused on just putting good wood on the ball instead of trying to pull everything. He has average arm strength, blocks balls well and calls a good game.
Weaknesses:
Montero’s Double-A struggles also were the result of a return to bad habits. He began to overswing, allowing pitchers to expose his holes. His throws sometimes lack accuracy, and he erased a slightly below-average 32 percent of basestealers in 2005.
The Future:
Even the Diamondbacks were surprised by Montero’s explosion, and they rewarded him by assigning him to the Arizona Fall League. He’ll begin 2006 by trying to show he can handle Double-A.
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7) Garrett Mock
Background: Mock was seen as a first-round talent entering his junior year at Houston, but a broken ankle hurt his performance and he fell to the third round. In his first full season, he gutted through pitching at one of the friendlier hitter’s parks in baseball to lead the California League in wins and strikeouts.
Strengths:
Mock has a full arsenal, touching 94-95 mph with his four-seam fastball while mixing in a 88-91 cutter with excellent movement. His slider and curveball are both quality offerings, and he commands all of his pitches well. He’s a big-bodied power pitcher who maintains his stuff deep into games.
Weaknesses:
Scouts remain concerned about the difference between Mock’s stuff and results. He gives up too many hits, leaving too many pitches over the heart of the plate when he clearly has the command to work the corners. His changeup needs more work, but it should be an average pitch in the end.
The Future:
Mock’s bulldog approach helped him survive the tough environment of the California League, and with a few refinements, he could take off. He’ll start 2006 in Double-A.
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8) Matt Torra
Background: Torra was seen as just a solid arm with a weak program entering 2005, but he became a supplemental first-round pick who signed for $1.025 million after leading NCAA Division I with a 1.14 ERA for a 16-33 Massachusetts team. After racking up high pitch counts for the Minutemen, he worked just 10 innings in his pro debut before being shut down with biceps tendinitis.
Strengths:
Torra made significant improvements to his physical condition prior to the 2005 season, and his stuff took off. He works low in the strike zone with a 92-94 mph fastball that he can dial up to 96. He throws a power curve with true 12-to-6 break that he can begin or end in the strike zone with equal effectiveness. His mechanics are simple and repeatable.
Weaknesses:
Torra has yet to face any sort of advanced competition. His changeup is still a work in progress. His heavy college workload was a concern to some scouts.
The Future:
Torra should be 100 percent for spring training and will begin 2006 at one of Arizona’s two Class A affiliates. He could reach Double-A by the end of the year.
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9) Micah Owings
Background: The Rockies drafted Owings in the second round in 2002 after he made a run at the national high school career home run record. A two-way star at Georgia Tech, he fell to the 19th round (Cubs) in 2004 because of signability concerns. After transferring to Tulane and leading the Green Wave in homers and pitching strikeouts in 2005, he went in the third round and signed for $440,000.
Strengths:
Scouts long preferred Owings’ power arm to his bat, and he showed why in his pro debut. He saw his fastball jump to 94-97 mph as a reliever. He also made some adjustments with his mid-80s slider, which became a plus pitch with late downward break. He’s an aggressive strike-thrower who’s not afraid to work inside.
Weaknesses:
Owings’ changeup is average at best, and will be his point of emphasis when he returns to the rotation in 2006. He still needs to mature from thrower to pitcher, working harder on setting hitters up instead of challenging them on every pitch.
The Future:
Arizona believes Owings could move quickly as a reliever but offers more value as a starter. He’ll most likely open 2006 in the Lancaster rotation.
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10) Sergio Santos
Background: Arizona continually has pushed Santos since it drafted him in 2002’s first round, and he finally hit a wall at Triple-A in 2005. He didn’t get his average above .200 until late May, and he hit only one home run after July 1.
Strengths:
Santos’ pure tools remain impressive despite his poor performance. He has plus bat speed and good power for a shortstop. While he slumped at the plate, he did improve significantly in the field. Santos has soft hands and an above-average arm, and he made great strides in his reads and work on double plays.
Weaknesses:
Santos overreacted to his slow start and fell apart mechanically, leaving him susceptible to inside pitches and completely inept against lefthanders (.148 average). While he has a quick first step at shortstop, his speed limits his range, and he may be better suited for third base.
The Future:
Despite his rough season, most scouts still see significant potential in Santos. Clearly not ready for the majors, he’ll return to Triple-A. If Stephen Drew is assigned to Tucson, Santos will move to a different position to accommodate him.
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Best Hitter for Average Conor Jackson
Best Power Hitter Chris Carter
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Conor Jackson
Fastest Baserunner Marland Williams
Best Athlete Jereme Milons
Best Fastball Dustin Nippert
Best Curveball Dustin Nippert
Best Slider Micah Owings
Best Changeup Kellen Raab
Best Control A.J. Shappi
Best Defensive Catcher Orlando Mercado
Best Defensive Infielder Alberto Gonzales
Best Infield Arm Jerry Gil
Best Defensive Outfielder Carlos Quentin
Best Outfield Arm Carlos Gonzales
Best Power Hitter Chris Carter
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Conor Jackson
Fastest Baserunner Marland Williams
Best Athlete Jereme Milons
Best Fastball Dustin Nippert
Best Curveball Dustin Nippert
Best Slider Micah Owings
Best Changeup Kellen Raab
Best Control A.J. Shappi
Best Defensive Catcher Orlando Mercado
Best Defensive Infielder Alberto Gonzales
Best Infield Arm Jerry Gil
Best Defensive Outfielder Carlos Quentin
Best Outfield Arm Carlos Gonzales
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Heres the actual article: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/diamondbacks.html
And for comparison's sake, last year's top 10. Needless to say, I think we have had a modest improvement over the last year down on the farm, at least in terms of top end talent.
1. Carlos Quentin, of
2. Conor Jackson, of
3. Sergio Santos, ss
4. Jon Zeringue, of
5. Greg Aquino, rhp
6. Chris Snyder, c
7. Josh Kroeger, of
8. Jaime D’Antona, 3b
9. Ramon Pena, rhp
10. Matt Chico, lhp
And for comparison's sake, last year's top 10. Needless to say, I think we have had a modest improvement over the last year down on the farm, at least in terms of top end talent.
1. Carlos Quentin, of
2. Conor Jackson, of
3. Sergio Santos, ss
4. Jon Zeringue, of
5. Greg Aquino, rhp
6. Chris Snyder, c
7. Josh Kroeger, of
8. Jaime D’Antona, 3b
9. Ramon Pena, rhp
10. Matt Chico, lhp
devilfan02
Registered
Great article, thanks! I'm really interested in Carlos Gonzalez. I think in a couple years he could turn into one of the best prospects AZ has ever brought up. He's got a great bat, great arm, and plays very good defense. Hopefully the coaches work on his plate discipline and keep him hungry. I'm also eager to watch the development of the two pitchers we drafted last year- Torra and Owings. If our farm coaches can develop them properly, they both could be staples in our rotation and bullpen for years to come. In the future, we obviously need to stock our farm with some very good pitching prospects. How awesome would it be to have some pitching prospects like Diamond or Hester to go along with Nippert??? It could happen if Byrnes pulls a quality trade for Javy/Glaus. I love how he's taking his time 
Brandon_Webb
Registered
Can anyone post the chat wrap?
Diamondback Jay
Psalms 23:1
devilfan02 said:
Agreed. Gonzalez reminds me a lot of a Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols type hitter. I can't wait to see how he handles advanced competition, because he made it seem almost effortless in South Bend.
overseascardfan
ASFN Addict
We have a ton of OF prospects, but no CF's. I like Chris Carter, he has got some pop in his bat.
devilfan02
Registered
overseascardfan said:
We do but he's not signed- Upton. CRIPE!!!
For posterity's sake, here it is:Kolobotomy said:
Diamondbacks Prospect Chat with Kevin Goldstein
Moderator: Kevin Goldstein will begin taking your Diamondbacks questions at 2 p.m. ET.
Moderator: Hello everyone. Happy early holidays and nice to be here talking D-backs. Let's get rolling.
Q: Matt from Seguin, TX asks:
Where was Enrique Gonzalez? He put better numbers than Mock at Lancaster last season at the same age. He had a very good season this year in the Southern League. What was it that kept him off the list?
A: Kevin Goldstein: His size and his lack of a third pitch. He's a little undersized and more of a fastball-slider guy, leaving most to see him as a reliever. Mock has more of a full arsenal.
Q: JB from CT asks:
Thanks for taking the time to answer the questions. If you had to guess, what are the chances that Justin Upton will sign? Also can we get a little scouting report on Upton, strongweak points and his future?
A: Kevin Goldstein: I don't think he'll sign anytime soon, but I would put the probability of him signing before the draft at 83.74% or so. It's very hard to find a weak point with him. He has true superstar potential. I talked to scout about him and that scout had not scored a high school player as high as he scored Upton since Alex Rodriguez in the early 90s.
Q: Alec from Phoenix, AZ asks:
What do you think of Chris Carter? How close was he to the top 10, and do you think he could at least play passable defense at first base?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He was awfully close. But (repeat mantra) -- buy the prospect handbook to find out. He's not a very athletic guy and not a very instictual player. Passable at 1st base isn't that hard, so I'll say he probably could.
Q: Virgil Dahl from Waterloo, Iowa asks:
Drew or Upton, who has the greatest upside?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Upton. If he signed before the rankings came out, he'd be No. 1.
Q: Craig from Chesapeake, Va asks:
Please rate the D-backs 2005 draft other than Justin Upton. Where do you see the various draftees playing next year?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Well, after Upton, Scouting Director Mike Rizzo focused on pitching by taking five straight college arms. Both Torra and Owings made the top 10, while Matt Green (2nd round) and Greg Smith (6th) both had very good debuts. I think many of them are slated for Lancaster this year, which should be a fun team to watch. That's a VERY hard place to pitch.
Q: Virgil Dahl from Waterloo, Iowa asks:
When will Montero be ready for the big time? How does he compare to Saltalamacchia, Neil Walker, Russ Martin, and Josh Willingham??
A: Kevin Goldstein: That's such a weird list. Salty and Walker are elite prospects, two of the top catching prospects in the game, with Martin just a notch behind them, while Willingham really can't catch well enough to play there in the big leagues. So Montero is one of the better catching prospects around, but not in the league with those three.
Q: Mike C from Gary, IN asks:
Is Stephen Drew a perennial all-star? How would you rank Drew, H. Ramirez and B. Wood in terms of potential? Also, does Drew take the starting job this season? If so, is .270-.340-.430 out of the question? Thanks.
A: Kevin Goldstein: He has the potential to be one. I'd take Wood over him, but not Ramirez. I don't think those numbers would be out of the question if he gets the starting job (a distinct possibilty), I'd even bet that he beats those numbers.
Q: Virgil Dahl from Waterloo, Iowa asks:
These chats are great, thank you. Baseball America is a great site! How does Carlos Gonzalez compare to Carlos Quentin?; and could Gonzalez be ready by 2007??
A: Kevin Goldstein: I almost put Gonzales at three, which shows how much people love him, but Quentin has just proven so much more. Gonzales has a higher ceiling, he's just further away from it.
Q: Brent from San Antonio asks:
If Upton were to sign, where would the D-Backs minor league system rank?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Pretty darn high. If Upton signed, one could put their top five up there with anyone in baseball, but it thins out after that, leaving them behind the uber-systems like the Dodgers and Angels.
Q: Brent from San Antonio asks:
Where would Upton rank among the top 100 prospects? Will he be a SS or CF?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Top 10 easily, maybe top five. Arizona has indicated that he'd at least start of as a shorstop.
Q: Nate from San Diego asks:
Hi Kevin, thanks for your time. How far away was OF Josh Kroeger from making your list?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Pretty darn far, really. He had a rough rough going at Tucson. He's a good athlete, but he has a long swing and needs to refine his approach at the plate.
Q: Dave from Kenosha, WI asks:
What are Kellen Raab's long-term prospects and does he crack the D'backs' top 30? Is he eligible for the Rule V?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Well I've gotten a flurry of Kellen Raab questions from Wisconsin folks, so it's good to know he has a fan club. He really is a bit of a sleeper in the system. He's huge, has a pretty good fastball and a plus change. He's got a chance. He's in the book, and when you buy it (repeat mantra) you'll see exactly where.
Q: Alec from Phoenix, AZ asks:
What is the future of Tony Pena? He had a subpar year at Double AA, but from what I hear, he has a nice fastball and slider that could make him excel in a relief role. Do you see the Diamondbacks converting him to relief anytime soon? Oh, by the way, thanks for the excellent chats.
A: Kevin Goldstein: Pena just didn't have the lightening stuff he did in the past, and he just doesn't have a good idea of how to set up hitters when his stuff is off. Many think, like you, that he'd be better off in the bullpen.
Q: Jason Neighborgall's Clone from AZ asks:
Hey, do you see me infiltrating your list in the future? I realize my control needs some serious work, but I touched 102 MPH on the gun way back when. Ah, those were the good ol' days.....
A: Kevin Goldstein: I had this talk with Jim Callis the other day. Basically he has about a three percent chance to be in the top 5 next year, and a 97 percent chance to be at the bottom of the depth chart. He's basically a $500,000 lottery ticket.
Q: Wahoo baseball from Charlottesville asks:
Where does Mark Reynolds begin next season, and where does he fit on the Top 30 prospects? He had a lot of errors last season at SS, will he move to 2B or 3B this year?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Reynolds does have a little juice in his bat, but he has problems getting on base, and is inconsistent in the field. Best possibility is a utility guy.
Q: Jeff from Paradise Valley, AZ asks:
How do you think Mike Rizzo's increased role in the D-backs' front-office will affect the team?
A: Kevin Goldstein: I can't see that having anything but a positive effect. Why he wasn't strongly considered for the GM job is beyond me.
Q: Charles from Phoenix asks:
Who is Cesar Nicolas, and were those numbers he put up last year indicative of the type of prospect he is? Tell me he is legit!
A: Kevin Goldstein: Nicolas did have a very good year, but he was 23 in the Midwest League, so take it with a grain of salt. He's a big guy with a pure pull approach who could put up some huge numbers at Lancaster, if they choose not to test him at AA. The jury is still out until we see how he does against his peers.
Q: Marvin from Tempe asks:
Jereme Milons was touted in some circles as a sleeper prospect last year. Has he fallen down a peg or two? What is his upside potential?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He's still a sleeper just on his athleticism, but he's sleeping a little harder these days. The tools are there, but the clock is ticking.
Q: Browning Nagle from Louisville, KY asks:
Dustin Nippert seems to me a great prospect. He had a great year only one year removed from Tommy John surgery. What spot in the rotation could Dustin Nippert be in at his peak?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He could be a 2 or 3. He's a very very good prospect with good stuff who has an outside shot at a rotation slot for opening day.
Q: Wallace Morris from Flagstaff, AZ asks:
All the hype about Stephen Drew has me worried. Obviously, he's got the unbelievable tools, but the makeup questions are what worries me. They said the same thing about J.D. and he's never lived up to expectations. What are you thoughts about if Stephen will ever put it all together?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Those questions are going to dog him for awhile, and if I knew the effect they'd have on his career from here forward, I'd be psychic. His performance so far has been outstanding, and his attitude was praised by managers and coaches at Lancaster.
Q: Charles Berg from Houston, Texas asks:
How did Jon Zeringue drop off this list? Although he struggled, he did start his first full season at AA. What are your thoughts? Is he an 11-15 guy still?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He dropped of the list by not hitting a lick. He's still in the 30 certainly. He over-reacted to an early slump and pressed and tinkered to much while also learning the ugly lesson that 2-0 or 3-1 counts don't automatically equal fastball.
Q: Jeff from Trinity, NH asks:
Will Micah Owings ever hit again? It seems like a waste of a power bat to just keep him on the mound if he has 30+ homer potential in the show...
A: Kevin Goldstein: I don't know anyone (well I know one now!) who though he had 30+ HR potential in the bigs. Everyone liked him better on the mound. Long swing, not necessarily designed for wood bats. I'm not sure any of the 30 teams, if they drafted Owings, would have used him as a position player.
Q: cjb from madison, wi asks:
Seeing Carlos Gonzalez face in his pic looks a lot like Miguel Cabrera. I remember reading a scouts take on Miggy when he was getting called up that he loved his "baby face" look. Do scouts take the "look" of a player as being important and besides the "look" does Gonzalez have any other similarities with Cabrera when he was in Low A?
A: Kevin Goldstein: I don't think scouts put too much into how a player looks, other than his physical build. Bringing up Cabrera does allow me to tell you that one Midwest League scout said that Gonzales was the best position player he'd seen in that league since Cabrera.
Q: mike from milwaukee, wi asks:
In your estimation, does Drew get the shot at Opening Day SS this year or does he need more seasoning in AAA? If he indeed is the guy, do you see a year similar to JJ Hardy or is he already a better hitter? (The 2nd half Hardy that is...) Thanks!
A: Kevin Goldstein: I think Drew is a far superior hitter to Hardy. I also think that Drew is going to be given a shot at the job. The D-backs are probably looking for a veteran as insurance, but as of today at 1:33 p.m. CT, it's Drew's job to lose.
Q: Dan from Gilbert, az asks:
Thanks for the chat! Talk about Santos for a moment. Was his drop in the Dback prospect rankings more due to the growth or addition of other prospects (Drew, Montero, etc), or was it more due to his struggles in AAA. Is his defense, there arent too many 20 year olds in AAA... just talk about his future for a moment.. Thanks again...
A: Kevin Goldstein: There aren't many 20 year old in AAA, including Santos, who turned 22 in July. If there's some good news in his season, it's that he made tremendous strides defensively. I like a comparison to Felipe Lopez who was moved quickly through the minors, stuggled, was given up on, and turned out to be pretty darn good.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
I'm confused with the order of the top four. Carlos Gonzales is supposed to be a superstar in the making while quentin and jackson are solid players mostly just good hitters and drew could be a very strong rating. I thought that these top tens went on potential and not on success at a higher level where both quentin and jackson are much older than gonzalez?
A: Kevin Goldstein: The rankings are a combination of a player's ceiling AND his likelilhood of reaching it. I do think Gonzales has a higher ceiling than Jackson or Quentin, but both of those players have the abilities to produce in the majors right now, and that's the difference.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
Assuming Mr. Upton signs, where will he start next year? It would be great to see him up here in the midwest league.
A: Kevin Goldstein: It certainly would, and I believe that's where he would start.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
Is the reason that 2005 first round pick Matt Torra so low on the list because he hasn't pitched against anyone good yet, or is garrett mock really considered to have more potential than him at this point?
A: Kevin Goldstein: In this system, No. 8 is anything but an insult. Mock has a track record and very good stuff.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison ,WI asks:
What are the D-backs going to do with Jason Neighorball in 2006, it seems like he may need some extra time in extended spring training or something. Will he be in the top 30 at this point?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He's in the book, you'll see where when you (repeat mantra) buy the Prospect Handbook. And a special thanks to Jim Callis for editing down the book I wrote on him to something more manageable. There's no way to predict where he'll start 2006 right now. It all depends on how many strikes he throws in the spring.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
The south bend team that did very well in the Midwest League this season featured Carlos Gonzalez. Who are some other prospects from that team that have a chance at success in the future that i should keep my eye on?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Quite a few, really. I've already discussed Nicolas, and they had an athletic double-play combo of Alberto Gonzales and Emilio Bonofacio, both who have some upside, as does 3B Augustin Morillo. Pitching-wise, I've talked about Raab, and they had A.J. Shappi (who went 11-1 in the first half), who is more of a control guy than a stuff guy.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
What do you think of Jason Urquidez as a prospect. He was one of the best pitchers at Arizona St. the past few years. Do you seem him having success as he moves up the system?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He's a gritty competitor, but he just doesn't have the stuff to give him a big ranking.
Q: Mike from DC asks:
It is simply unfair that two premier prospects like Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson play for the same organization, have similar sounding names, and frankly, look an awful lot alike. We finally get Burnett and Beckett on two different teams and now this.
A: Kevin Goldstein: You also forget to mention that South Bend had Carlos Gonzales and Alberto Gonzales. What's up with that? This is clearly an outrage, and I have contacted Bud Selig, who is forming a blue-ribbon panel to address this travesty.
Q: Randy Suzewitz from Mesa, Arizona asks:
What is the upside on pitchers Enrique Gonzalez and Edgar Gonzalez (no known relation)...do either register on the Top 20? Thanks for the forum!
A: Kevin Goldstein: More alike names! More Gonzalez! This must be stopped! I think they both have a ceiling as solid bullpen arms. And that's not a knock. Saying they can be effective in the big leagues in any role is a compliment.
Q: Scott from Cleveland asks:
Today johnny estrada was traded to arizona...what do you feel about chris snyder now?
A: Kevin Goldstein: More importantly, the D-backs didn't trade any book guys, so I don't have to write any more guys up!
Q: Brian from Idaho asks:
How many at bats do you think Conor Jackson will get and what kind of production will he have with Tony Clark around?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Despite Clark's comeback year, Arizona wants to get his bat into the lineup. He'll be the primary 1B in 2006.
Q: Jon from Peoria asks:
Is Matt Chico a future major league starter? He pitched well in a good hitters league in California but struggled at Tennessee.
A: Kevin Goldstein: Chico really struggled in the Southern League, but rebounded nicely back at Lancaster when pitching coach Jeff Pico fixed some mechanical flaws. He's still a decent prospect, either as a 4-5 starter or a lefty reliever.
Q: thebig747 from Milwaukee, WI asks:
Any love for Jesus Cota?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Not much for a 24 year old first baseman who has never produced over A ball.
Q: Gerald from St. Louis asks:
I know Jamie D'Antona was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, if he is picked up, will he be able to help a team next year at the major league level? If not, where does he stand in the D-Backs top 30?
A: Kevin Goldstein: I can't see him helping a big league team right now. He's not really a third baseman, and his approach completely fell apart at Double-A. Tremendous raw power, but it rarely showed in game situation. Take one giant step backwards.
Q: Casey from New York asks:
ETA on Carlos Gonzales? What kind of numbers can you see him realistically putting up in the Cal League next year? Is a 30 HR, 100+ RBI, .330 season out of line?
A: Kevin Goldstein: End of '07 or early '08. Those are some monster numbers there, but it is Lancaster, and this is a premium talent. I'll set the over-under if he plays the full year there at .308-27-93
Q: john sanchez from south bend, IN asks:
How does cesar nicolas not make this list? He tore it up in South Bend and only had 325 at-bats there. Also, what are the D-backs long term plans for ross ohlendorf and would he be in the top 30?
A: Kevin Goldstein: John -- you can not rank prospects by statistics alone. You just can't. Nicolas was 23 and beating up on younger pitching, so he hasn't proven much yet.
Q: David from Phx asks:
Matt Elliot did a good job closing out games, was he just dominating lesser competition or is he a legit prospect?
A: Kevin Goldstein: More the former than the latter. He's a aggressive pitcher with a good breaking ball and good change, but his fastball is in the upper 80s, and that's just not closer stuff.
Q: Tom T from Houston asks:
Does Nippert's fastball still have room to improve as he continues his rapid return from surgery, or has he pretty much already topped it out?
A: Kevin Goldstein: I wouldn't expect a big jump -- Nippert's biggest room for improvement lies in his control. He lost some confidence in his big league stint and started nibbling at the corners, leading to alot of walks when his stuff is plenty good enough to get hitters out.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
At this point does former Stanford ace Mark Romanczuk just project as a fourth or fifth starter?
A: Kevin Goldstein: At the most. His fastball is in the 85-88 mph range and he just lacks a true outpitch to project as anything more.
Q: Matt Jefferies from Lakeview, La. asks:
What range would Ross Ohlendorf fall in and does he still project as a starter or is he more of a reliever now? Thanks.
A: Kevin Goldstein: Big guy with a big fastball, but very little else. He was a dissapointment in '05, but a move to the pen could be just what the doctor ordered.
Q: David from Memphis asks:
Kevin - love these chats. can you comment on the '06 outlook for Carlos Quentin? what can we expect from him and how does he compare to other elite RF prospects like Delmon, Hermida and Francouer? Thanks.
A: Kevin Goldstein: I don't think Quentin has the ceiling of those three, but he's such a good BASEBALL PLAYER that it's hard to see him as anything but a very good corner outfieler. As I wrote last year, his greatest strength is that he has no weaknesses.
Q: Micah Kishard from Montana asks:
How is it that Virgil gets 2 questions answered yet, I Macah Kishard who wrote in at 9:30 this morning did not get his answered? I repeat my question: Chris carter dominated two leveles, but doesn't crack the top 10? Also, whats up with Adriano Rosario aka Tony Pena...does his fastball not hit 98 MPH anymore. I saw him have a great game followed by a crap game. What's his future if any?
A: Kevin Goldstein: We get hundreds of questions! We don't get to them all! We try! Chris Carter barely missed the top 10. The big problem is that Carter has no even AVERAGE tool other than his bat. He has no defensive position, and not everyone is convinced that he'll hit as he moves up.
Q: David from Phx asks:
With the trade bringing Johnny Estrada to Phx, I expect Hill or Snyder to be moved. Of the 2 which do you think will be a better C? I imaging you'll give the D edge to Snyder and the bat edge to Hill. Secondly, is Estrada an overall improvement over Snyder?
A: Kevin Goldstein: I think Synder is the far better player at this point. Hill will be 27 in March, has never really caught on behind the plate, and is coming off a pretty miserable year with the bat.
Q: Rich from Sikeston, MO asks:
Hey Kevin...with the potential logjam of OFs in Arizona, would they consider moving Quentin? My Cards need an OF, and I like him more than any guy that's ready to play.
A: Kevin Goldstein: I think they'd much rather find a team they could dump a veteran to.
Q: PO'd from Does it matter asks:
How does some guy named Blake get 6 questions answered in a row. I am a subscriber and pay my good money but NEVER get my questions answered. How about being fair Mr. Goldstein.
A: Kevin Goldstein: PO'd, I try not to answer questions that are repeats and when I have six questions about one guy, I just choose one. But we do love you as a subscirber, so email me your questions and I'll answer them.
Q: Evelyn from Dallas asks:
The Silverhawks rotation did a very good job. Looks like Koley Kolberg is starting to emerge as a good prospect. He's a fearless competitor based on his performance at U of A and South Bend. What do you think about him?
A: Kevin Goldstein: He was universally praised for his competitiveness, and his stuff is just pretty good with an 88-90 mph FB and a decent breaking ball. He's definitely got a chance.
Q: Gregg Pressman from New York, NY asks:
Greg Smith won pitcher of the year in the Pioneer League. He'a LHP with great strikeout #s. How close did he come to the Top 10?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Not TOO close, but not too far either. I'm going to guess that by now you know how you can get his exact ranking. That said, he was a polished college guy dominating a short-season league. His curveball is a true out pitch, but will he have enough velocity to set it up?
Q: Bill Mitchell Fan from Plant City, FL asks:
How about Dan Uggla? He looked pretty good in Arizona, and it's fun to say his name.
A: Kevin Goldstein: And who isn't a Bill Mitchell fan? Uggla has definitely turned himself into a prospect. He's a gritty guy with some pop who could be a real nice bench player.
Q: Jon from Peoria asks:
What are your thoughts on a couple of other catchers in the organization: Wilkin Castillo and Orlando Mercado?
A: Kevin Goldstein: Castillo is a pretty good defender who makes good contact, but does little else. Mercado is an OUTSTANDING defender, who needs to start hitting.
Q: Mike from DC asks:
How much power do you see in Conor Jackson's future? The write-up says only 20 bombs a year, but I've heard he could be a 35 HR man one day.
A: Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea where you heard that. That seems high to me.
Q: John from Orlando, FL asks:
Kyle Bono who came over to the Diamondbacks in the Jose Cruz trade to Boston had a solid season at Wilmington and showed well during his brief time at Lancaster consistently working in the 90-94 range. Where do you see Bono starting out next year. Do you see him staying in the bullpen? He was one of Byrnes signings at Boston.
A: Kevin Goldstein: Right now, they want him to stay healthy and just pitch out of the bullpen.
Q: coach from ohio asks:
Your thoughts and where they fit in the organization Augustin Murillo and Alberto Gonzalez.
A: Kevin Goldstein: They both are highly regarded, Alberto Gonzales more so as he can hit a little and is one of the top defensive players in the system.
Q: moosey from minnesota asks:
Will Santos ever make it to the majors? If so, is he more than a utility guy?
A: Kevin Goldstein: My money is on yes and yes.
Q: Andy from Corvallis asks:
Where does Brian Barden fall on this list? Is there any chance we'll ever see him play for the Diamondback??
A: Kevin Goldstein: He's in the 30. He can hit for average, and he's a pretty good gloveman, but he just doesn't have the power or plate discipline to get too worked up.
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Q: Virgil Dahl from Waterloo, Iowa asks:
These chats are great, thank you. Baseball America is a great site! How does Carlos Gonzalez compare to Carlos Quentin?; and could Gonzalez be ready by 2007??
A: Kevin Goldstein: I almost put Gonzales at three, which shows how much people love him, but Quentin has just proven so much more. Gonzales has a higher ceiling, he's just further away from it.
All I can say is - WOWZERS
These chats are great, thank you. Baseball America is a great site! How does Carlos Gonzalez compare to Carlos Quentin?; and could Gonzalez be ready by 2007??
A: Kevin Goldstein: I almost put Gonzales at three, which shows how much people love him, but Quentin has just proven so much more. Gonzales has a higher ceiling, he's just further away from it.
All I can say is - WOWZERS
