- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 403,681
- Reaction score
- 43
The Chicago Bears are ready to maximize Caleb Williams' immense potential. Their hire of offensive genius Ben Johnson as their head coach this past January, as well as an aggressive approach to rebuilding their offensive line in free agency, all but confirms Chicago's immense investment in its bright, young quarterback.
But before we play any real games, it's worth wondering what Johnson's designs are for his Bears' offense. That, of course, will extend to how he coaches and works with Williams, too.
At a press conference during the NFL owners' meetings on Tuesday, Johnson shared a shrewd, analytical goal that perhaps not every head coach always considers. He wants to maximize the Bears' passing Expected Points Added (EPA) above all else because the Bears' analytics team has determined it is the biggest underlying statistical factor in NFL wins and losses. Yes, even over the hallowed turnover margin (which still matters, but in a different way).
Johnson's short tangent about this distinction is worth a listen:
If we just look at the results of the 2024 NFL season, Johnson's assessment here tracks.
According to RBDSM.com's data on the matter, here were the eight best NFL in dropback EPA last season:
For posterity, that is seven playoff teams, five squads with at least 12 wins, and the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. Only the Bengals among that group failed to qualify for the postseason or even reach double-digit victories (and that was more related to how they couldn't stop anyone on defense). The correlation that Johnson alludes to seems quite clear.
Do you know what unsurprisingly drags down passing EPA? Negative plays like interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. See, the turnovers are still accounted for in a major fashion! Do you know what positively inflates passing EPA? Easy run-after-catch opportunities. Sound completion percentage. Living to fight for another down.
Football writer Nate Tice compiled the total EPA lost on sacks and interceptions for NFL teams over the last five seasons, and it's pretty eye-opening:
As for why Johnson is specifically focusing on passing EPA, the answer should be obvious.
No quarterback was sacked more than Williams (68) in 2024. At times, Williams and the Bears' offense literally couldn't get out of their own way with backbreaking negative plays. Yes, even with Williams managing to limit his interceptions (just six) as a rookie. That tells you how far away the Bears were from having a successful passing EPA. This was arguably their biggest drawback.
The implication Johnson makes here is evident. Williams' Bears' offense has to be on schedule more. It has to get easier chunk plays without working too hard for them. It can't keep eating so many sacks, in turn killing lots of possessions before they have a chance to get off the ground. Making a concerted effort to fix these things will lead to a healthier passing EPA and, in Johnson's mind, a sounder Bears team that is actually competing with a real chance to win every week.
This should be music to Williams' ears, who is brimming with talent but needs steadier guidance and support than he received as a rookie. Johnson and his subordinates have a real vision for him and the rest of the Bears' offense.
It seems they have an even smarter plan to materialize it.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Ben Johnson shared smart Bears' EPA take that will help Caleb Williams a lot
Continue reading...
But before we play any real games, it's worth wondering what Johnson's designs are for his Bears' offense. That, of course, will extend to how he coaches and works with Williams, too.
At a press conference during the NFL owners' meetings on Tuesday, Johnson shared a shrewd, analytical goal that perhaps not every head coach always considers. He wants to maximize the Bears' passing Expected Points Added (EPA) above all else because the Bears' analytics team has determined it is the biggest underlying statistical factor in NFL wins and losses. Yes, even over the hallowed turnover margin (which still matters, but in a different way).
Johnson's short tangent about this distinction is worth a listen:
If we just look at the results of the 2024 NFL season, Johnson's assessment here tracks.
According to RBDSM.com's data on the matter, here were the eight best NFL in dropback EPA last season:
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions
- Washington Commanders
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Green Bay Packers
- Philadelphia Eagles
For posterity, that is seven playoff teams, five squads with at least 12 wins, and the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. Only the Bengals among that group failed to qualify for the postseason or even reach double-digit victories (and that was more related to how they couldn't stop anyone on defense). The correlation that Johnson alludes to seems quite clear.
Do you know what unsurprisingly drags down passing EPA? Negative plays like interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. See, the turnovers are still accounted for in a major fashion! Do you know what positively inflates passing EPA? Easy run-after-catch opportunities. Sound completion percentage. Living to fight for another down.
Football writer Nate Tice compiled the total EPA lost on sacks and interceptions for NFL teams over the last five seasons, and it's pretty eye-opening:
As for why Johnson is specifically focusing on passing EPA, the answer should be obvious.
No quarterback was sacked more than Williams (68) in 2024. At times, Williams and the Bears' offense literally couldn't get out of their own way with backbreaking negative plays. Yes, even with Williams managing to limit his interceptions (just six) as a rookie. That tells you how far away the Bears were from having a successful passing EPA. This was arguably their biggest drawback.
The implication Johnson makes here is evident. Williams' Bears' offense has to be on schedule more. It has to get easier chunk plays without working too hard for them. It can't keep eating so many sacks, in turn killing lots of possessions before they have a chance to get off the ground. Making a concerted effort to fix these things will lead to a healthier passing EPA and, in Johnson's mind, a sounder Bears team that is actually competing with a real chance to win every week.
This should be music to Williams' ears, who is brimming with talent but needs steadier guidance and support than he received as a rookie. Johnson and his subordinates have a real vision for him and the rest of the Bears' offense.
It seems they have an even smarter plan to materialize it.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Ben Johnson shared smart Bears' EPA take that will help Caleb Williams a lot
Continue reading...
