Bill James plan to fix Pro Basketball's Perverse Incentives

[DWKB]

Bill James is worried the amount of regular season competitive games is going to continue to diminish because of the incentive to tank. As more team begin to realize that constant mediocrity isn't a viable long term strategy they will pull a Philadelphia 76ers.

Here’s my solution. Create a system in which:

1. Each NBA team has an agreed-upon amount of money that it can use to sign players coming into the league, and
2. Each player may be drafted not by one team, but by three teams.

In other words, permit a bidding war—thus permitting competition—but a limited bidding war. The bidding war is limited because:

1. Only three teams can participate for one player, and
2. Those teams have a limited amount of money that they can spend.

Interesting proposal worthy of debating IMO.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2016/06/how_to_stop_tanking_in_the_nba.html

 

[devilalum]

This system would reward the largest market teams. If say the Suns, Jazz and Lakers were all currently bidding for Ben Simmons who do you think would win?

 

[DWKB]

This system would reward the largest market teams. If say the Suns, Jazz and Lakers were all currently bidding for Ben Simmons who do you think would win?

You have to read the whole article.

The proposal has a rolling capped fund with capped individual years as well.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think it's a flawed argument, he's trying to solve a problem that may not exist. Let's see if there is this rush to follow the Philadelphia approach before we come up with a way to stop it.

And to me the solution is so much easier than his complicated method. Just use money. Increase the pool of money available for postseason teams and pay out regular season TV money based on competitive tiers. If you fall in the bottom group, you get the smallest payout.

 

[Russ Smith]

I guess tanking is a problem but IMO a bigger problem is the stupid regular season is too long. Cut it to more like 60 games so the players are not running on fumes by the end of the playoffs. I know they won't do that because of money and they don't like to make radical changes like that but the season is too long IMO.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I guess tanking is a problem but IMO a bigger problem is the stupid regular season is too long. Cut it to more like 60 games so the players are not running on fumes by the end of the playoffs. I know they won't do that because of money and they don't like to make radical changes like that but the season is too long IMO.

Great idea. This would be the perfect time to do it. With TV revenues high, the cap would not go down, just not up as fast.

They need to penalize tanking. Limit the times teams can get top five picks, many once only every five years or something. This is the Hinkie legacy.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I guess tanking is a problem but IMO a bigger problem is the stupid regular season is too long. Cut it to more like 60 games so the players are not running on fumes by the end of the playoffs. I know they won't do that because of money and they don't like to make radical changes like that but the season is too long IMO.

Yeah, this latest TV contract makes it almost impossible to shorten the season. Maybe once ESPN goes bankrupt and defaults on it's payments the league will do some season and probably team contraction but if ESPN finds a way to survive it's recent blunders, I think we're stuck with the league as is.

 

[devilalum]

I think the mistake we make sometimes is assuming that the owners really care about winning, losing, tanking etc...

Most only care about these things as they relate to making MONEY.

Would making these changes increase league revenue?
If the answer is yes then it may happen. If the answer is no why should they care?

 

[Errntknght]

I generally like the idea but there are a lot of details to work out, and as we say, the devil is in the details.

The part I like best is the rolling rookie fund... if you think its not a good year you could make smaller bids, saving your money 'til a better crop appeared.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think the best solution was a points based system I heard where teams accumulate points for each win once they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Those points determined draft position. So the team eliminated first, like the 76er's would have the best shot at getting the #1 pick since they'd have more time and games to accumulate points but they have to win to do it. I can't remember all of the details or who created it.

I think it would fix tanking as well as making more games late in the season competitive. Another upside is that would keep veterans on bad teams from being bought out or holding fire-sales around the trade deadline, decreasing player movement and the March 1st buyout period where a lot of contenders add players on the cheap to help their playoff push.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think the best solution was a points based system I heard where teams accumulate points for each win once they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Those points determined draft position. So the team eliminated first, like the 76er's would have the best shot at getting the #1 pick since they'd have more time and games to accumulate points but they have to win to do it. I can't remember all of the details or who created it.

I think it would fix tanking as well as making more games late in the season competitive. Another upside is that would keep veterans on bad teams from being bought out or holding fire-sales around the trade deadline, decreasing player movement and the March 1st buyout period where a lot of contenders add players on the cheap to help their playoff push.

That seems overly complicated and destined to fail. If you presented it correctly, wouldn't it just penalize the tanking latecomers? If you lose well enough early you're going to become mathematically eliminated earlier and will therefore be able to accumulate points sooner. Also, being eliminated will depend on the quality of play in your division and your conference and could conceivably give some teams a huge advantage.