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The Green Bay Packers have been accused of valuing traits too much in their draft picks, rather than the production they created in college, especially at the edge rusher position. After doing some digging, it appears that while, yes, they do place a premium on athletic traits in their pass rushers, the team also has statistical standards.
While they are not overly concerned with sacks, having taken Rashan Gary in the first round despite minimal sack production at Michigan, there is a consistent theme of valuing college pressure numbers in the edge rushers they draft.
Including Colby Wooden, who in terms of the athletic benchmarks the Packers look at, is more built like an edge rusher for them than a defensive tackle, the team has drafted eight pass rushers since 2016. Removing Kendall Donnerson, a seventh-round flier taken based solely on athleticism, their other picks all have a track record of pressuring the quarterback.
The picks, and their production from when they became full-time players:
The numbers appear to suggest the less time they play, the more pressures per season they need to draw Green Bay's attention. Fackrell did not produce for long but was impressive in his lone season as a starter in college.
The draft picks listed above average 37.5 pressures per year during their full-time seasons, with Enagbare's 31 the floor, and he had 45 pressures in his final college season, like Fackrell.
This trend continues for some, although not all, of their undrafted free agent signings too. Brenton Cox averaged 34.67 pressures over three seasons, Keshawn Banks had 40.25 over four, while Tipa Galeai and Delontae Scott each had 45.5 over two years.
How easy are the types of numbers listed above to hit? Not very. In fact, there are not many pass rushers in the 2025 class who did. There are even fewer who also fit the athletic mold the Packers traditionally target.
It has become something of a running joke that if one of Shemar Stewart or Mykel Williams fell to Green Bay at pick 23, two edge rushers with tantalizing traits but modest production, Brian Gutekunst would not be able to stop himself from taking them.
But even for the traits-loving Packers, they might not be productive enough. Stewart averaged just 26.33 pressures per year in his final three seasons at Texas A&M, while Williams only managed 28.33 in three years at Georgia.
Arkansas's Landon Jackson, who has become a popular mock Packers pick due to his size and athleticism, averaged only 25.33 pressures in his last three college seasons.
It is not out of the question that Green Bay would take any of these players, but they would be breaking their precedent quite considerably in terms of production.
Some of the more productive edge rushers in the first-round range are Mike Green (44.5 average in final two years), James Pearce (53.5 average in final two years), Donovan Ezeiruaku (43 average in final three years) and Nic Scourton (39 average in final two years), and they are other reasons to believe they will not be Packers.
Green and Pearce are both on the smaller side and have character questions. Ezeiruaku also lacks size and did not run the 40, prompting questions over his speed, while Scourton did not test at all.
Outside of Round 1, J.T. Tuimoloau, Braydn Swinson and Jordan Burch all had incomplete athletic testing, but hit the benchmarks the Packers are looking for in the tests they did complete and have plenty of pressure production. They are maybes, as is Ashton Gillette, who is slightly shorter, and has shorter arms than the Packers usually go for.
The prospects who hit Green Bay's athletic thresholds (or are close enough), and have a proven history of getting pressures:
Umanmielen is 55th on the consensus big board as of writing, and is a viable target in Round 2. He tested at 244 pounds, which is lighter than Green Bay usually likes, but he weighed in at 264 pounds at the Senior Bowl. Sorrell is 146th, Baron is 150th, Diggs is 183rd, Batty is 202nd and Ponder is 382nd, making them Day 3 options.
Based on the profile of players at the edge rusher position in this year's draft, lacking a blend of athleticism and a decent history of production, and given the Packers are still heavily invested in Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness, it seems increasingly unlikely they are going to draft a pass rusher in Round 1.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Busting the Packers pass rush production myth: 6 prospects to watch
Continue reading...
While they are not overly concerned with sacks, having taken Rashan Gary in the first round despite minimal sack production at Michigan, there is a consistent theme of valuing college pressure numbers in the edge rushers they draft.
Including Colby Wooden, who in terms of the athletic benchmarks the Packers look at, is more built like an edge rusher for them than a defensive tackle, the team has drafted eight pass rushers since 2016. Removing Kendall Donnerson, a seventh-round flier taken based solely on athleticism, their other picks all have a track record of pressuring the quarterback.
The picks, and their production from when they became full-time players:
- Lukas Van Ness - 74 pressures in final 2 years (37 per year)
- Rashan Gary - 102 pressures in final 3 years (34 per year)
- Kyler Fackrell - 45 pressures in final year
- Colby Wooden - 100 pressures in final 3 years (33.33 per year)
- Vince Biegel - 131 pressures in final 3 years (43.67 per year)
- Kingsley Enagbare - 93 pressures in final 3 years (31 per year)
- Jonathan Garvin - 77 pressures in final 2 years (38.5 per year)
The numbers appear to suggest the less time they play, the more pressures per season they need to draw Green Bay's attention. Fackrell did not produce for long but was impressive in his lone season as a starter in college.
The draft picks listed above average 37.5 pressures per year during their full-time seasons, with Enagbare's 31 the floor, and he had 45 pressures in his final college season, like Fackrell.
This trend continues for some, although not all, of their undrafted free agent signings too. Brenton Cox averaged 34.67 pressures over three seasons, Keshawn Banks had 40.25 over four, while Tipa Galeai and Delontae Scott each had 45.5 over two years.
How easy are the types of numbers listed above to hit? Not very. In fact, there are not many pass rushers in the 2025 class who did. There are even fewer who also fit the athletic mold the Packers traditionally target.
It has become something of a running joke that if one of Shemar Stewart or Mykel Williams fell to Green Bay at pick 23, two edge rushers with tantalizing traits but modest production, Brian Gutekunst would not be able to stop himself from taking them.
But even for the traits-loving Packers, they might not be productive enough. Stewart averaged just 26.33 pressures per year in his final three seasons at Texas A&M, while Williams only managed 28.33 in three years at Georgia.
Arkansas's Landon Jackson, who has become a popular mock Packers pick due to his size and athleticism, averaged only 25.33 pressures in his last three college seasons.
It is not out of the question that Green Bay would take any of these players, but they would be breaking their precedent quite considerably in terms of production.
Some of the more productive edge rushers in the first-round range are Mike Green (44.5 average in final two years), James Pearce (53.5 average in final two years), Donovan Ezeiruaku (43 average in final three years) and Nic Scourton (39 average in final two years), and they are other reasons to believe they will not be Packers.
Green and Pearce are both on the smaller side and have character questions. Ezeiruaku also lacks size and did not run the 40, prompting questions over his speed, while Scourton did not test at all.
Outside of Round 1, J.T. Tuimoloau, Braydn Swinson and Jordan Burch all had incomplete athletic testing, but hit the benchmarks the Packers are looking for in the tests they did complete and have plenty of pressure production. They are maybes, as is Ashton Gillette, who is slightly shorter, and has shorter arms than the Packers usually go for.
The prospects who hit Green Bay's athletic thresholds (or are close enough), and have a proven history of getting pressures:
- Princely Umanmielen - Ole Miss (averaged 42.33 pressures in final 3 seasons)
- Barryn Sorrell - Texas (averaged 42.33 pressures in final 3 seasons)
- Tyler Baron - Miami (averaged 37.5 pressures in final 4 seasons)
- Fadil Diggs - Syracuse (averaged 30.33 pressures in final 3 seasons)
- Tyler Batty - BYU (averaged 32.75 pressures in final 4 seasons)
- Elijah Ponder - Cal Poly (averaged 423733 pressures in final 4 seasons)
Umanmielen is 55th on the consensus big board as of writing, and is a viable target in Round 2. He tested at 244 pounds, which is lighter than Green Bay usually likes, but he weighed in at 264 pounds at the Senior Bowl. Sorrell is 146th, Baron is 150th, Diggs is 183rd, Batty is 202nd and Ponder is 382nd, making them Day 3 options.
Based on the profile of players at the edge rusher position in this year's draft, lacking a blend of athleticism and a decent history of production, and given the Packers are still heavily invested in Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness, it seems increasingly unlikely they are going to draft a pass rusher in Round 1.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Busting the Packers pass rush production myth: 6 prospects to watch
Continue reading...
