Camby needs to get real

[Joe Mama]

This article mentions Atlanta, Utah, and Phoenix as possible destinations for Marcus Camby this summer if the Denver Nuggets shy away from his contract demands. Don't count on it. If he actually demands a six-year deal I'll be surprised if anyone offers much above the mid-level exception. If his contract starts at over $7 million he won't get more than three guaranteed years. If he wants more guaranteed years his deal will start at $5-6 million. The Phoenix Suns won't even pursue him. I mean they might make him a bottom of the barrel of it, but it will be anything serious. That's my prediction for Marcus Camby this summer.

6 years and $60 million... give me a break.

Joe Mama


As for Camby, his agent, Rick Kaplan, reiterated Sunday he probably will opt out of the final year of his contract, which is for a nonguaranteed $7.75 million. But Kaplan said he has checked with the NBA Players Association and learned the Nuggets could guarantee next season before the June 30 deadline for Camby to opt out.

"That's a possibility, but not likely," Kaplan said of his client coming back for one year. "Marcus wants to nail down a long-term deal."

Kaplan reiterated Camby will seek a deal "somewhere in the range" of $60 million over six years. Nuggets general manager Kiki Vandeweghe could not be reached but previously has declined comment on Camby's contract demands.

"I hope to stay in Denver," said Camby, who shook off several years of injuries to average 8.6 points and 10.1 rebounds while playing in a career-most 72 games. "But I know it's a business. That's the approach I'm taking."

The Nuggets want to retain Camby, but his big- money demands could drag out negotiations. While Kaplan stressed the top choice is Denver, he said Utah, Atlanta and Phoenix could emerge as possibilities.

"If (Camby) leaves, it would be an enormous step back for (the Nuggets)," said Kaplan, who said Camby might opt out by the June 12 deadline to submit players for the expansion draft because it could allow the Nuggets to protect an extra player. "It's so hard to find a big man."

 

[SweetD]

I can see him going to Atlanta for that much.

 

[elindholm]

I made a prediction on this board a while back on Camby's next contract. Unfortunately I can't remember what I said , but I think I guessed at least $30 million over four years. That still sounds right to me. I think it's almost certain that someone will offer him four years or more, starting at significantly above the MLE.

 

[George O'Brien]

I made a prediction on this board a while back on Camby's next contract. Unfortunately I can't remember what I said , but I think I guessed at least $30 million over four years. That still sounds right to me. I think it's almost certain that someone will offer him four years or more, starting at significantly above the MLE.

$30 million for four looks about right. (That is an average of $7.5 million starting at about $6.5 million). I can't see the Suns doing more than that considering his health issues.

In some ways the Nuggest large amount of cap space hurts their negotiating position. The Suns have a lot less space, so Camby's agent would know the Suns really can't do much more.

 

[F-Dog]

I made a prediction on this board a while back on Camby's next contract. Unfortunately I can't remember what I said , but I think I guessed at least $30 million over four years. That still sounds right to me. I think it's almost certain that someone will offer him four years or more, starting at significantly above the MLE.

That looks about right to me, too. (It's the number at which I'm ambivalent over whether the Suns get him, anyway. )

Camby had a nice series against the Wolves, which should help his bargaining position a little in Denver--especially since there are no immediate upgrades in the FA market.

 

[George O'Brien]

That looks about right to me, too. (It's the number at which I'm ambivalent over whether the Suns get him, anyway. )

Camby had a nice series against the Wolves, which should help his bargaining position a little in Denver--especially since there are no immediate upgrades in the FA market.

There have been rumors about Denver looking at Okur and Dampier. If they go that direction, Camby's position is not that strong.

 

[F-Dog]

There have been rumors about Denver looking at Okur and Dampier. If they go that direction, Camby's position is not that strong.

I doubt Damp will opt out this year, given the new financial climate. The management at Golden State will be high-fiving each other if he does.


My guess is that Utah will sign Okur to a good-but-not-unreasonable deal, starting at, say, $7.5 million. Then, Dumars will promptly match, throwing Rasheed Wallace onto the market.

Utah hasn't figured out how to work the RFA market yet.

 

[elindholm]

My guess is that Utah will sign Okur to a good-but-not-unreasonable deal, starting at, say, $7.5 million. Then, Dumars will promptly match, throwing Rasheed Wallace onto the market.

No way. Detroit will offer that kind of money to Wallace long before they give it to Okur. Just look at which one is getting the minutes now -- that tells you which one they'd rather have. If Okur was worth as much as $7.5 million next season, the Pistons would be finding a way to get him more than 10 minutes a game in these playoffs.

If Wallace decides he doesn't want to stay with the Pistons, or (unlikely) someone outbids Detroit for his services, then I can see them retaining Okur for too much money. But Wallace will be the higher priority until Detroit is convinced they can't keep him.

 

[F-Dog]

No way. Detroit will offer that kind of money to Wallace long before they give it to Okur. Just look at which one is getting the minutes now -- that tells you which one they'd rather have. If Okur was worth as much as $7.5 million next season, the Pistons would be finding a way to get him more than 10 minutes a game in these playoffs.

I think that when you talk about the Pistons, you have to consider that Joe Dumars and Larry Brown are two very different guys. Brown likes Americans, the quick fix, veterans and (especially) wayward souls, while Dumars seems to prefer Euros, low-profile moves, long-term rebuilding and character players.

If Larry Brown has a say in roster management, I'm sure he'd prefer to keep Rasheed. Then again, I'm sure he would have preferred Melo over Darko, too.


Right now, the less Okur plays, the less (they hope) other teams will try to sign him for, so both sides are happy. If it comes down to Brown vs. Dumars, though, I doubt that Larry Brown will win too many of those battles.

 

[SweetD]

I don't know if Larry can get the team far into the playoffs there is no reason to not keep Sheed around instead of Okur. IMO Okur is not a player the Suns should be looking into. I think Lampe has the same skill as Okur if not more. Okur needs to have better D before I would spend the cash on him.

 

[hcsilla]

No way. Detroit will offer that kind of money to Wallace long before they give it to Okur.

I agree. There is no way.....that the Jazz would offer 7.5 mil. to Okur.
And I like Okur's talent. He just isn't worth 7.5 mil. If anyone the Jazz realize that.

 

[Joe Mama]

I agree. There is no way.....that the Jazz would offer 7.5 mil. to Okur.
And I like Okur's talent. He just isn't worth 7.5 mil. If anyone the Jazz realize that.

I think Okur will get a contract starting in the $5-6 million range, and I think Utah will be one of his strongest suitors. Last year Brad Miller got a seven-year contract starting at $7 million. He had been an Eastern conference All-Star I believe. His last season with Indiana he averaged 13 one points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I think Okur will get a contract starting in the $5-6 million range, and I think Utah will be one of his strongest suitors. Last year Brad Miller got a seven-year contract starting at $7 million. He had been an Eastern conference All-Star I believe. His last season with Indiana he averaged 13 one points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game.

Joe Mama

That's about what I project Okur to go for (same for Mark Blount). Utah might go higher because they have a serious need for a center and have only $8.7 million in salaries next season.

 

[elindholm]

Last year Brad Miller got a seven-year contract starting at $7 million.

But Miller is 5-10 times as good as Okur. Why should their salaries be comparable?

 

[Joe Mama]

Last year Brad Miller got a seven-year contract starting at $7 million.

But Miller is 5-10 times as good as Okur. Why should their salaries be comparable?

You stick Okur in that same situation on the Sacramento Kings, and I'll bet he is just as good as Miller. Offensively I think Okur is more skilled. Defensively in Miller probably has the edge, although neither one of them is great.

Joe

 

[Chaplin]

You stick Okur in that same situation on the Sacramento Kings, and I'll bet he is just as good as Miller. Offensively I think Okur is more skilled. Defensively in Miller probably has the edge, although neither one of them is great.

Joe

You're kidding right? Does the real Chad know you're using his screen name??

Subtract injury issues, and Okur is easily the most overrated free agent available this summer.

 

[hcsilla]

Brad Miller is a better offensive player than Okur.
He has a better jumpshot, a higher basketball IQ and Miller is more consistent.

 

[Joe Mama]

Well, I disagree with you guys. I think if you put Okur in an offensive system like Sacramento's he would be putting up similar scoring numbers to Brad Miller. If he leaves Detroit this summer I believe he'll put up great numbers for some team next season.

The one and only real Joe Mama

 

[Chaplin]

Well, I disagree with you guys. I think if you put Okur in an offensive system like Sacramento's he would be putting up similar scoring numbers to Brad Miller. If he leaves Detroit this summer I believe he'll put up great numbers for some team next season.

The one and only real Joe Mama

I don't see how you can accurately back up that statement. We've all seen Okur play, of course, but have you seen him play enough to stand by that statement? I'm not sure any Phoenix Sun fan has that kind of credibility. It's like Slin's blind love for several draft picks, most of which he's never seen play more than once or twice. It's not like he's Marcus Camby, who I'm sure all of us have seen play a lot more than Okur.

For the record, I wouldn't mind having Okur, but to put him in the same class as Brad Miller is just not a good comparison. Outside of Sacramento, Brad Miller is a top tier center in the NBA (that's not saying much, but it IS true, after all). Even on a team that actually starves for offense, Okur couldn't produce. And Detroit isn't a great defensive team because of Mehmet Okur.

Take away injuries, and who do you choose: Dampier, Camby or Okur? With the simple exception of age, Dampier and Camby easily beat Okur in virtually every other category. Add Brad Miller to that list if you'd like and he'd still get chosen over Okur.

 

[Joe Mama]

90% of what we talk about on this message board can't be proven one way or the other. I've watched Okur enough this season to say I like his offense as much or more than Brad Miller's. IMO he would have put up similar numbers to Miller on the Sacramento Kings. We'll have to see what happens next season if he plays for someone other than Detroit.

I never said I wouldn't take Brad Miller over Okur. Forgetting about injuries I would take Dampier and Marcus Camby over him as well. I never said otherwise. Eric said Miller is five or 10 times better than Okur, and I disagree with him.

Joe Mama

 

[Chaplin]

I never said I wouldn't take Brad Miller over Okur. Forgetting about injuries I would take Dampier and Marcus Camby over him as well. I never said otherwise. Eric said Miller is five or 10 times better than Okur, and I disagree with him.

Joe Mama

Are you basing that on statistics? Because if you put Brad Miller on the Pistons instead of Okur, what do you think the outcome would be?

 

[elindholm]

You stick Okur in that same situation on the Sacramento Kings, and I'll bet he is just as good as Miller.

You seriously think that if Miller were on the current Pistons, he'd be getting only 10 minutes a game?

I don't think the league overrates Okur as much as you do.

Edit: I now see that Chaplin has already made these points, but what the heck, I'll leave mine up.

And I'll concede that "5-10 times better" was a bit strong. Maybe "4-6 times better"?

 

[Joe Mama]

You stick Okur in that same situation on the Sacramento Kings, and I'll bet he is just as good as Miller.

You seriously think that if Miller were on the current Pistons, he'd be getting only 10 minutes a game?

I don't think the league overrates Okur as much as you do.

Edit: I now see that Chaplin has already made these points, but what the heck, I'll leave mine up.

And I'll concede that "5-10 times better" was a bit strong. Maybe "4-6 times better"?

I didn't say if you put Brad Miller on the Detroit Pistons he would average similar numbers to Okur. I do think Miller's numbers would be down a bit, but he would probably get more playing time because of his contract and years in the league. Brown also values defense, and like I said Miller is a better defender.

I'll back of my original statement that Okur would be "as good as Brad Miller" if he played on the Sacramento Kings. That was too strong. There's no way I'll concede that Miller is 4-6 times better though. If Okur goes to a team like Utah with a good offensive system where he's playing 30-35 mpg I think we'll see him putting up 15-18 ppg and 8-10 rpg.

Again, I never said I liked Okur more than Brad Miller. I definitely never said I would take him over a healthy Marcus Camby or Erick Dampier. I'm not even sure how they entered into the argument.

I think Okur will get a contract starting in the $5-6 million range, and I think Utah will be one of his strongest suitors. Last year Brad Miller got a seven-year contract starting at $7 million. He had been an Eastern conference All-Star I believe. His last season with Indiana he averaged 13 one points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game.

Joe Mama

Last year Brad Miller got a seven-year contract starting at $7 million.

But Miller is 5-10 times as good as Okur. Why should their salaries be comparable?

here are some statistics Chap:

Brad Miller 2002-03 with Indiana
31.1 minutes
13.1 points
8.3 rebounds
2.6 assists
1.62 turnovers
.59 blocks
.89 steals

Okur 2003-04 with Detroit
22.3 minutes
9.6 points
5.9 rebounds
1.0 assists
1.42 turnovers
.89 blocks
.51 steals

I know it's not as simple as this, but if you figure Okur's numbers if he played 31.1 minutes per game like Brad Miller did with Indiana here's what you get.

Okur in 2003-04 in 31.1 minutes
13.4 points
8.2 rebounds
1.4 assists
2.0 turnovers
1.2 blocks
.71 steals

Joe Mama

 

[Errntknght]

A healthy Camby would be nice on this team but Dampier I can well do without, healthy or not... let some other desperate team overpay him. Brad Miller would be my first choice were he available as he fits the high post offense perfectly. Okur... I haven't seen him showing any passing game but haven't seen him much. By the time the playoffs are over we should have a lot better read on him. Right now I'd say 5 million per annum, tops.

 

[Chaplin]

here are some statistics Chap:

Brad Miller 2002-03 with Indiana
31.1 minutes
13.1 points
8.3 rebounds
2.6 assists
1.62 turnovers
.59 blocks
.89 steals

Okur 2003-04 with Detroit
22.3 minutes
9.6 points
5.9 rebounds
1.0 assists
1.42 turnovers
.89 blocks
.51 steals

I know it's not as simple as this, but if you figure Okur's numbers if he played 31.1 minutes per game like Brad Miller did with Indiana here's what you get.

Okur in 2003-04 in 31.1 minutes
13.4 points
8.2 rebounds
1.4 assists
2.0 turnovers
1.2 blocks
.71 steals

Joe Mama

Admittedly, this is a very tough arguement to have, Joe, because we're talking about two teams that couldn't be more different. I guess the real question might be about the system, rather than the individual player--would Okur thrive in a Sacramento-style offense? He certainly isn't thriving in a defensive one, if we assume you are correct and he is a lot better than he appears. But what if he really isn't? My fear is that he's too soft, and that's why he gets low minutes on a defensive team.