Can FGCU reach Sweet 16 in Women’s March Madness? Predictions for why and why not

[ASFN Admin]

The FGCU women's basketball team has been one of the most successful mid-major programs in the nation over the past decade, earning eight consecutive NCAA Tournament berths.

The No. 14 Eagles (30-3) will make their 11th all-time appearance Saturday when they take on No. 3 Oklahoma (25-7) at 2:30 p.m. at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman. No. 6 Iowa and No. 11 Murray State are the other teams in the pod with the Sooners and Eagles and play at noon Saturday.

This is the second straight year FGCU and the Sooners match up in the first round. Last season, the No. 12 Eagles let an early double-digit lead slip away in a 73-70 loss to No. 5 Oklahoma in Bloomington, Ind.

March 2024: FGCU women's basketball lets early lead slip away, falls to Oklahoma in NCAA Tournament

FGCU is 4-10 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, with three of its victories coming as a No. 12 seed. The Eagles have never made it past the Round of 32. Could this be the year FGCU reaches the Sweet Sixteen?

Here's why the Eagles can — and can't — advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

FGCU coach Chelsea Lyles learned from the best​

The Eagles first-year head coach spent more than a decade as an assistant for FGCU architect Karl Smesko. Lyles took over the program early this season when Smesko left to become the head coach of the WNBA's Atlanta Dream and proceeded to lead the Eagles to a 30-1 finish and their ninth consecutive ASUN Tournament Championship.

From November: Who is Chelsea Lyles? What to know about Karl Smesko's FGCU women's basketball successor

Lyles will have a well-constructed plan to stymie the Sooners, one that should give FGCU a shot at avenging last season's loss. It most likely will center on the Eagles controlling the game's pace and forcing Oklahoma into mistakes. The Sooners struggled to take care of the ball this season, averaging a tick under 19 turnovers per game.

FGCU needs to get offensive​

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Even with a defense that's allowing a shade over 53 points per game, the Eagles will likely need to deliver their best offensive performance of the season to upset Oklahoma.

That means two-time ASUN Player of the Year Emani Jefferson, a tough cover for any defender, must finish her drives to the basket. Beyond the arc, Eagles shooter Dolly Cairns and Alahna Paige, who combined for 119 3-pointers and 42% shooting from deep, need to connect on their open looks.

History not on FGCU's side​

This is the lowest seed FGCU has ever drawn for a NCAA Tournament. No 14 seed has ever won a women's tournament game, posting a combined record of 0-120. Add in the fact the Eagles will have to face Oklahoma on its home court, where the Sooners went 13-0 against non-SEC opponents this season, and the path to victory gets that much narrower for FGCU.

Since 2015 when the NCAA moved first and second rounds games to the home campuses of the top four seeds in each region, those teams are 128-0 in the first round. The only win by a bottom four seed during that time came in 2021 when No. 13 Wright State defeated No. 4 Arkansas 66-62. However, that game was played at the University of Texas in Austin due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Oklahoma is on a roll​

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The Sooners ran off seven consecutive SEC wins to close out the regular season, capped by a victory over then-20th-ranked Alabama. Oklahoma knocked off Georgia and then No. 12 ranked Kentucky to reach the SEC Tournament semifinals where it lost to eventual tourney champion South Carolina.

Junior 6-foot-4 center Raegan Beers has been a force in her first season with the Sooners after transferring from Oregon State. She led the team in scoring (17.5 points per game), rebounding (8.9) and blocks (33) while shooting 66% from the field.

How to watch FGCU vs. Oklahoma​

Time: 2:30 p.m. Saturday

Channel: ESPNU

Streaming: Watch ESPN or ESPN+; Sign up for a free Fubo TV Trial

Women’s March Madness bracket​

Want to see the full 2025 NCAA Women's Basketball bracket. CLICK HERE

NCAA Tournament: The 2025 Women's March Madness Bracket

FGCU women's basketball NCAA Tournament history​

• 2012: No. 5 St. Bonaventure 72, No. 12 FGCU 65 (OT)
• 2013: No. 5 Oklahoma State 61, No. 12 FGCU 60 (OT)
• 2015: No. 7 FGCU 75, No. 10 Oklahoma State 67; No. 2 Florida State 65, No. 7 FGCU 47
• 2017: No. 4 Miami 62, No. 13 FGCU 60
• 2018: No. 12 FGCU 80, No. 5 Missouri 70; No. 4 Stanford 90, No. 12 FGCU 70
• 2019: No. 4 Miami 69, No. 13 FGCU 62
• 2021: No. 6 Michigan 87, No. 11 FGCU 66
• 2022: No. 12 FGCU 84, No. 5 Virginia Tech 81; No. 4 Maryland 89, No. 12 FGCU 65
• 2023: No. 12 FGCU 74, No. 5 Washington State 63; No. 4 Villanova 76, No. 12 FGCU 57
• 2024: No. 5 Oklahoma 73, No. 12 FGCU 70

This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: FGCU women’s basketball March Madness bracket predictions for 2025

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