Can Vanderbilt reach Sweet 16 in Women’s March Madness? Predictions for why and why not

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Vanderbilt women's basketball will be playing in March Madness again. But instead of the First Four like last year, the Commodores are a No. 7 seed.

In Durham, North Carolina, Vanderbilt (22-10) will open up against No. 10 seed Oregon (19-11) on Friday (4:30 p.m. CT, ESPNews). The winner would face No. 2 seed seed Duke or No. 15 Lehigh.

Shea Ralph has plenty of postseason experience from her days as a player and assistant at UConn. Now, in her fourth season with the Commodores, she has her best team yet.

Here's why Vanderbilt can − and can't − make it to the Sweet 16:

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Vanderbilt women's basketball March Madness predictions​

Can Vanderbilt women's basketball make the Sweet 16?​

Here are two reasons Vanderbilt women's basketball can make the Sweet 16:

Vanderbilt got a favorable draw. The Commodores will have to contend with Oregon's 6-foot-8 center Phillipina Kyei, but Vanderbilt has the vastly better guard play in this matchup and that often matters in March. The Commodores also drew a favorable 2-seed in Duke. The Blue Devils don't have a ton of size and have similar strengths to Vanderbilt. Tennessee is another team that fits that profile, and Vanderbilt beat the Lady Vols twice.

Mikayla Blakes is a cheat code. What other team in the country has a player who's scored 50 points in a game this season ... twice? There isn't one. Even USC's Juju Watkins hasn't managed the feat of Blakes, who seems built for March. But Vanderbilt isn't just reliant on Blakes, as Khamil Pierre also averages over 20 points per game.

Is Vanderbilt women's basketball on upset alert?​

Here are two reasons Vanderbilt women's basketball can't make the Sweet 16:

Vanderbilt just isn't good enough on the interior: With Sacha Washington out for the season, the Commodores have only one true post player who sees significant minutes: Aiyana Mitchell, who comes off the bench. Mitchell is a good defensive player but she isn't a big offensive threat. Although post play isn't the strength of the other teams in this region, Vanderbilt may just be too undersized to advance.

Vanderbilt is too reliant on a few players. Blakes and Pierre are the focal point of every defense. Iyana Moore has come on at the end of the season, too, and she was the Commodores' best player last year. But Vanderbilt doesn't have another scoring threat outside those three. Moore averages 12.6 points per game; the next-best player, Madison Greene, averages seven. After her, no one else averages even five points per game.

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Vanderbilt women's basketball March Madness prediction​

The Commodores get past Oregon in their opening-round game and play a close game against Duke in the second round but ultimately fall short of their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2009.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X, formerly Twitter, @aria_gerson.

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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt women’s basketball March Madness bracket predictions for 2025

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