Cardinals' 2017 Analysis: QB

Mitch

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What Tom Brady and Matt Ryan have in common:

* A sense of urgency
* Pre-snap recognition of defensive alignments and coverages
* Play clock management
* Adept and effective mixing of snap counts
* Precise ball-handling
* Nifty and fundamental footwork
* Buying time in the pocket
* Ball security---top priority
* Zip and touch--when and where
* Chemistry with receivers
* Ball distribution---to multiple RBs and receivers
* Two-minute drill brilliance---tempo, organization, execution
* Hunger to score on every possession
* Play-action---deception and precision
* Coolness under pressure
* Exemplary preparation---understanding of opponents' weaknesses and personnel
* Fast starts
* The ability to look off and hold the safety
* The vision and ability to make quick, decisive pass progressions
* Both are 6-4, 228
* Physical toughness
* Both are reliably durable

These traits are the prototypes and standards of excellence that teams covet in a QB.

In 2016---here is how I would assess Carson Palmer with regard to these standards:

* A sense of urgency (C)
* Pre-snap recognition of defensive alignments and coverages (B-)
* Play clock management (C-)
* Adept and effective mixing of snap counts (F)
* Precise ball-handling (B+)
* Nifty and fundamental footwork (B)
* Buying time in the pocket (C-)
* Ball security---top priority (C-)
* Zip and touch--when and where (B)
* Chemistry with receivers (C)
* Ball distribution---to multiple RBs and receivers (B)
* Two-minute drill brilliance---tempo, organization, execution (B-)
* Hunger to score on every possession (B)
* Play-action---deception and precision (A-)
* Coolness under pressure (C-)
* Exemplary preparation---understanding of opponents' weaknesses and personnel (C-)
* Fast starts (D)
* The ability to look off and hold the safety (C-)
* The vision and ability to make quick, decisive pass progressions (C-)
* Both are 6-4, 228 (6-5, 235)
* Physical toughness (A)
* Both are reliably durable (started 15 games)

If we go back to 2015, Palmer merited higher grades in a number of categories.

Mitigating factors for Palmer in 2016:

* Offensive line health and continuity
* WR health
* Having to take prescribed days off in practice
* Being asked to run an offense that in certain ways does not fit his strengths
* Being asked to run an offense that often minimizes pass protection
* Offense being overseen by Harold Goodwin in off-season and pre-season (not to say Goodwin is at fault, but BA is the master architect and teacher and sometimes there are valuable nuances lost between the protege and the master).
* Poorly managed pre-season
* Concussion
* Constant poundings
* An inordinate number of drops by his receivers
* Scripted plays to begin ballgames not resulting in scores and fast starts
* Kicking and ST woes
* Defense giving up repeated scores to open up the 2nd half

Palmer is still deciding whether to return in 2017.

The questions are:

* Are there available veteran QBs who might be better suited to run BA's offense?
* If Palmer returns, can and will BA cater the offense more to Palmer's strengths?
* Is Drew Stanton, on his salary, more of an asset or a liability?
* Are there QB prospects in the draft who could be the Cardinals' QBOF?


What are your answers to these questions?

Here are mine:

* There are veteran QBs whom I think are well-suited to thrive in BA's offense:

1-Jimmy Garoppolo---which would require the Cardinals to outbid a number of suitors which include CLE, SF and CHI. The Cardinals could probably have to give up a 1st (2017) and a 2nd round pick (2018) to acquire Garoppolo---and if the bidding gets higher---possibly 2 1st rounders.

Regardless of the price, I believe Garoppollo would be a gifted passer in BA's system, because he is is quick minded, can shuffle his feet and his passes are highly precise.

2-Tyrod Taylor---it looks like the Bills want Taylor back at a reduced salary, but Taylor will most likely explore his options if and when the Bills release him.

First of all, Taylor is a Hokie, so BA knows him well. Secondly, if BA wants to resurrect his vertical passing onslaught, Taylor is the best deep passer he could get his hands on. Thirdly, what an added bonus it would be to have a QB, who in spread, zero RB sets can beat the pressure with his feet. The pressure that this puts on opposing defenses is immense in that it will force teams to play more zone coverages. It is very challenging to play a steady diet of man coverage versus a fleet footed, double-threat QB.

3-A.J. McCarron---would take giving up at least one high draft pick to the Bengals, but McCarron is a tidy and efficient game manager. Pair him with a star RB in David Johnson and a top-notch defense and he could win a ton of games.

4-Mike Glennon---UFA who, believe it or not, has better feet than people realize and can make all the throws. Steve Keim knows him very well. Glennon showed some early flashes of pure talent when he played as a rookie. He played an excellent game versus the Seahawks and had the Bucs up big in the first half. I was watching that game and I was very impressed. This was against the Seahawks' defense when it was at its very best, and Glennon wasn't exactly surrounded by prolific talent.

* If Palmer returns, it will be interesting to see whether BA&SK hop on a chance to add one of the 4 aforementioned QBs anyway. First of all, if you have a chance to acquire your QBOF, you do it. Secondly, it wouldn't hurt to give Palmer competition and to have a great option to turn to if Palmer gets dinged up. Thirdly, it would be good to have a QBOF taking the the snaps and the practice reps when Palmer is on his prescribed days off.

BA has already said that if Palmer returns, he will do much more to try to protect him. Thus there are strong reasons to believe that BA will cater the offense more to Palmer's strengths.

* As for Drew Stanton, he knows the offense, but the problem is, he doesn't really run it well, due to a consistent lack of accuracy and pocket antsiness. He's a greta guy to have around---very positive and supportive and he's shown he can win games when BA turns the offense into being ultra-conservative. But, it would be more ideal for the Cardinals to have a QBOF in place.

* What strikes me about the QB pool in this year's draft is that there are a number of young QB who look like they would at least be good, solid #2 QBs, but, other than Deshaun Watson (who is somewhat inconsistent at times, but has knack for leading the team to clutch wins), all of the young QBs in this draft look like developmental projects.

Would I trade up for Watson? Well, much will depend on whether CLE, SF, CHI and NYJ acquire QBs before the draft, because it is quite possible in that case that Watson could still be on the board at #13. While i like the upsides of Trubisky and Kizer, they seem too far away from being NFL ready to take them that high in the draft. At #13 they wouldn't be BPAs, at least not on my board.

if Watson is there at #13, i think he is worthy of that pick.

If no QB is taken early by the Cardinals, the question on day three of the draft becomes, do they like any of the QBs more than Zac Dysert? The Cardinals liked Dysert enough to prevent him from going back to the Dolphins. Carson Palmer has raved about Dysert's arm and competitiveness. Hey, you never know about unheralded, journeyman QBs who stick around long enough, right? Just ask Kurt Warner.

The Day 3 QBs whom I think is are potential steals:

* Jerod Evans, 6-4, 235, Virginia Tech---very good skill set and mobility, but will need a couple of years to develop.

* C.J. Beathard, 6-2, 209, Iowa---tough, smart game manager who throws a surprisingly good deep ball, and, imo, is the second most NFL ready QB in the draft, behind Watson.

Again, i don't now if either of these QB would ever be a #1 QB, but I do think both could at least be a good #2 QB.
 
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Finito

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You know what separates guys like CP from guys like Brady? Here's a hint it's not "a hunger to score on every drive" it's TALENT.

Karl Malone worked harder than anybody at his trade a legendary work ethic but still has no championships because Jordan was just a freak of a nature the greatest of all time in his prime. Malone is great in his own right but there's levels to this as Meek Mill would say.

What separates Palmer from Brady is talent. Brady is the best to ever do it. Others might have better numbers but he just has "it".

You can make all the long post you want about this and that at the end of the day God gave Tom Brady a little something extra he was born with it.
 

JeffGollin

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Mitch - I love your analytical thought process.

But I don't share your high regard for Garopollo, T Taylor, McCarron or Glennon vis a vis Carson Palmer - at least not high enough to justify a major trade.

(That's why they don't pay me the big bucks).
 

juza76

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Here's a list of QB's in the draft. I like the accuracy of Trubisky, Mahomes, & Watson. An UDFA or 6-7th rounder could be Pipkin. He completed 65% of his passes & had a 25-6 TD to int ratio.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2017QB.php
Thats what really matter, accuracy
Whats percentage of complete passes for rodger,Ryan,brees,manning,rivers
We must look at guys with over 65%
Dont give a crap about strong arm, height wing span or other sizes, just accuracy
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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Thats what really matter, accuracy
Whats percentage of complete passes for rodger,Ryan,brees,manning,rivers
We must look at guys with over 65%
Dont give a crap about strong arm, height wing span or other sizes, just accuracy

The problem with relying on college QB passing percentages is that so many passes in college today are hitch screens and little dump offs to the RBs.
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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Mitch - I love your analytical thought process.

But I don't share your high regard for Garopollo, T Taylor, McCarron or Glennon vis a vis Carson Palmer - at least not high enough to justify a major trade.

(That's why they don't pay me the big bucks).

I hope you're right, Jeff. That is, if Carson Palmer returns and there Cardinals once again roll with Stanton and ignore the QB position otherwise.

People are saying that Palmer was nursing a shoulder problem the first half of the year---which may be true---but it is his decision making, not his arm, that frustrates me.
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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Can we draft our qb instead of making other teams better?

If Watson is on the board at #13, there's a chance he could be the Cardinals' guy, especially with how tight BA& SK are with Dabo Swinney. SK was able to watch Watson in practice all week prior to the Ohio State Fiesta Bowl semifinal. If SK was blown away, it would be a surprise to see him move up for Watson, especially if SK takes care of the most pressing needs in FA.
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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A Peek Ahead to 2018 UFA QBs:

Derek Carr---26---OAK---no way the Raiders let him go.
Tom Savage---27---HOU---played fairly well when he replaced Osweiler, but was injured.
Jimmy Garoppolo---26---NE---whoever trades for him will either f-tag him in 2018 or get him signed to a long-term deal.
A.J. McCarron---26---might be the most affordable via a trade.
Matt Moore---34---MIA---good #2 QB.
Josh McCown---38---CLE---probably will retire soon.
Sam Bradford---29---MIN---has yet to have a breakout season.
Colin Kaepernick---30---SF---no longer has the look of a QBOF, if he once did.
Drew Brees---39---NO---has said he likes the Cardinals and would like to play in AZ, but can he maintain his level of play and health?
Tyler Bray---26---KC---hasn't played in a regular season game playing behind Smith, Chase Daniel (the previous two years) and Foles.

Other than Drew Brees and Garoppolo (who likely will be off the list), this list is underwhelming.
 
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RINGLESS

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I would be on the Jimmy G train personally. You have to look at it as giving up the #13 pick. Who is going to give you your best return on investment. One of the QB's available, or Jimmy G.


People tend to compare the Patriots Matt Cassel trade but that's unfair. Cassel, was a backup in college. He completed a total of 20 passes in college, he had 2-3 bad years with the Pats in his limited action before his one good year. 7th round pick

Jimmy, was very good in college, and has trained under the best. He was a 2nd round pick, which is what the true value is of the QB's that are going to be drafted. Difference is they have no NFL game film, or readiness. No experience. Take a chance on Jimmy. You have way more information on him than any QB coming out.

Edit:
http://nesn.com/2017/02/are-49ers-eyeing-jimmy-garoppolo-kyle-shanahan-raves-about-patriots-qb/

Perhaps we will get to see him twice a year

Trade our first, give him an extension (This year would only cost us around 820k) cut Stanton. Save 1.5m which we need pretty bad.
 
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Harry

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Just so everyone gets it, $20 million+ is the estimated tag for 2018!
 

Cbus cardsfan

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Unless the front office is absolutely sold on him(which I doubt), I'd have to see a lot more of JG before I would even consider a 2nd rounder for him. It's not just Matt Cassel, it's a list of QB's how have looked good/great in brief stints then stunk when handed the reins to an offense fulltime.

JG may turn out to be good but it doesn't make sense for the Cards right now. He's not going to beat out Palmer and what if CP plays 2-3 more years? Now, if Fitz and Palmer were not coming back next year, JG would make more sense.
 

TJ

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Palmer has enjoyed some of his best football as a pro with Arians, including a near MVP season. I won't buy that the offense doesn't fit him. Sounds more like overthinking and over analyzing.


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Southpaw

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If Watson is on the board at #13, there's a chance he could be the Cardinals' guy, especially with how tight BA& SK are with Dabo Swinney. SK was able to watch Watson in practice all week prior to the Ohio State Fiesta Bowl semifinal. If SK was blown away, it would be a surprise to see him move up for Watson, especially if SK takes care of the most pressing needs in FA.
No Watson....please

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don7031

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How durable is Garoppolo? He played a game and a half before he went on the shelf. Some GM is going to mortgage the future of his franchise to acquire and sign Garoppolo to a long term deal then hope like hell Garoppolo isn't made out of glass.
 
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Watson is the best chance of becoming an elite QB with value added from both his arm and legs from the available QBs on the market and draft. That being said, I only see him as a 20% chance of achieving this and 40% of bring a solid mid-tier QB. Is that worth spending our 13th pick on? I think we have to if we don't have to include other picks.

We can't take on the salary of someone like Taylor with Carson still on the team and payroll. A developing QB to draft and sit for a year is the best option. Watson can take the reigns in 18 while still under the rookie salary and we will be able to spend that QB money elsewhere like an extension for David Johnson.
 

sportznutt

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Watson is the best chance of becoming an elite QB with value added from both his arm and legs from the available QBs on the market and draft. That being said, I only see him as a 20% chance of achieving this and 40% of bring a solid mid-tier QB. Is that worth spending our 13th pick on? I think we have to if we don't have to include other picks.

We can't take on the salary of someone like Taylor with Carson still on the team and payroll. A developing QB to draft and sit for a year is the best option. Watson can take the reigns in 18 while still under the rookie salary and we will be able to spend that QB money elsewhere like an extension for David Johnson.

Much like Rodgers did
 
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How durable is Garoppolo? He played a game and a half before he went on the shelf. Some GM is going to mortgage the future of his franchise to acquire and sign Garoppolo to a long term deal then hope like hell Garoppolo isn't made out of glass.

This is just ridiculous & extremely premature.
 
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