Cards Draft Analysis: Swinging for the Fences

[kerouac9]

For the first time in league history, free agency follows the NFL draft. This is the single fact that drove the Arizona Cardinals' unusual drafting strategy in the 2011 draft.

The Cardinals have traditionally used free agency to fill glaring weaknesses on its roster. When the weaknesses were not serious, or legitimate options for filling those weaknesses were unavailable in free agency, the Cardinals would look to fill those needs in the draft with the Best Player Available (at a position of need).

Thus, you draft Dan Williams when there is no one to play nose tackle. You draft Daryl Washington when there's no one to play WILB except Karlos Dansby, whom you do not want to pay. Thus, you draft Andre Roberts when Steve Breaston is expected to be a starting wideout and can no longer physically withstand punt return duties.

But this year the Cards don't even know what free agents are leaving. Losing Deuce Lutui or Lyle Sendlein would be devastating to the offensive line; losing Alan Branch would severely damage a productive defensive line rotation. With the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring in June, it's not clear that any of these players are going to reach free agency.

When a team drafts for need, they often have to settle for a "safer" pick at a position because the player will be expected to contribute quickly. Thus the Arizona Cardinals settled for Levi Brown over other options because they had no answer to the tackle position.

The Cardinals know what some of their needs are--clearly quarterback, likely outside linebacker, likely inside linebacker. But those needs can be best addressed with an aggressive approach in free agency. The question is whether the team should go safe with expected needs?

This is the option teams like Minnesota and Tennessee took. They couldn't be certain that a good player could be attracted to their team at a clear position of need, so they took a player that they felt they could go into the 2011 season with.

The 2011 Arizona Cardinals took the opposite approach. They threw caution to the wind and expect to be able to solve their most glaring weaknesses in the short term through more experienced young players and veteran free agents. So, they took the most talented (not necessarily "best") player available in the first three rounds.

Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) was clearly the last elite player available in the first 10 picks. His upside is immense, and his technique is far more refined than former Top 10 cornerback Antrel Rolle. Peterson is physical, but he knows when to turn and run with his assignment. Peterson is an instinctive player who can make plays on defense and special teams.

Ryan Williams (RB, Virginia Tech) seems to be a head-scratching selection. Two years ago the Cardinals used a first-round pick on Beanie Wells, as well as a seventh round pick on seemingly dynamic third-down back LaRod Stephens-Howling. The Cards extended a restricted free agent tender offer on Tim Hightower who, despite being a fumbler and unreliable in the passing game, has earned the starting running back job two years in a row.

Williams enters a crowded backfield and possesses questionable consistency and durability after suffering an unproductive redshirt sophomore season and hamstring injury. But Williams is a small, quick back who can be productive as a receiver and might compare to Michael Turner. It's possible that the coaching staff has finally soured on Tim Hightower or has suffered buyers' remorse with Beanie Wells, but Williams represents a different kind of player.

Ryan Williams was a dynamic back in 2009, setting several rookie records. He reminds some of DeAngelo Williams, and if the Arizona Cardinals offensive braintrust decides to commit to the running game, the Cards could have as productive a duo as existed in Carolina in 2009.

Finally, third-round pick Robert Housler (TE, Florida Atlantic) as unquestionably frustrating to fans who were hoping to see the Cardinals address needs that had been known since the middle of the 2010 season. What the Cards got was a potentially dynamic receiving prospect in the mold of Antonio Gates (SD), Jermaine Gresham (CIN), Greg Olsen (CHI), and Jimmy Graham (NO). Cardinals fans have seen the strategic pressure that these kinds of players can place on opposing defenses. Housler has exception speed and length, and can become a red zone target to pair with Larry Fitzgerald.

Housler is by no means a finished product, but he doesn't have to be. If the Cardinals choose to select a young quarterback in the 2012 NFL draft, Housler will be developed enough to become one of his go-to options in his early development. A good, lanky receiving TE is a young quarterback's best friend; just ask Aaron Rodgers.

Us fans want to see the Cards hit home runs while only swinging for doubles. That's what drafting Brooks Reed in the second or John Moffitt would have meant. By selecting these three players, the Arizona Cardinals took three huge cuts, but if they make contact, they'll have three young, dynamic playmakers who, along with Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Calais Campbell, and hopefully O'Brien Schofield and Daryl Washington, will the nucleus for the Arizona Cardinals as they transition to the post-Kurt Warner Era (seriously, he's not coming back edition).

 

[desertdawg]

Good stuff, nice take.

 

[BigRedFan]

I think you meant Ryan Williams, haven't seen him referred to as Jimmy, unless he has 2 names sort of like Chris/Beanie Wells.

 

[kerouac9]

I think you meant Ryan Williams, haven't seen him referred to as Jimmy, unless he has 2 names sort of like Chris/Beanie Wells.

Good lookin' out. It's late (for me), and I had him confused with the DB from Virginia Tech who came out with A TON of hype, got cut by the Falcons(?), came here, and then promptly disappeared off the face of the earth. I LOVED Jimmy Williams coming out of college.

 

[Dayman]

What I liked most about the offensive side of this draft is that Whis is finally drafting players who fit his scheme. It was pretty apparent that the FO wanted Donald Brown two years ago, due to his fit in a more pass oriented offense. When he was gone, they settled for Beanie, who seemed like a questionable fit from the start. I still think Beanie can succeed here, but grabbing LeSean McCoy would have made a lot more sense, especially since Beanie and Hightower have similar styles.

With Williams, we finally have a guy who fits a pass first offense. He's a natural receiver, and, most importantly, he can make people miss. That's an element we've lacked in the running game since I can't remember when. Beanie and Hightower either take what's blocked for them (which is usually very little) or bounce outside. Williams is far more elusive and scouts have raved about his vision. His blocking sounds suspect, but the same was said about McCoy, and he's turning out ok.

Housler followed the same pattern. Instead of getting a more balanced TE like Rudolph or Stocker, they took a chance on a guy who can create mismatches in the passing game. Housler probably has more athleticism than Spach, Dray and Patrick combined. If this offense is going to rely so heavily on the pass, it needs some speed. Now we have one of the faster TEs around.

The same thing with Sherman. Marecic and Bannon would have been better fits with a smash mouth offense, but Sherman is better for the scheme we actually run. He could be the most versatile FB on this team since Centers.

I still think it's crazy to run Whis' preferred offense without a real QB, but he's been around long enough for me to realize that this team isn't going to grind it out on the ground on a regular basis. All we need now are a few linemen who excel at pass blocking and some more speed at WR and the personnel will actually fit the philosophy.

 

[Duckjake]

What I liked most about the offensive side of this draft is that Whis is finally drafting players who fit his scheme. It was pretty apparent that the FO wanted Donald Brown two years ago, due to his fit in a more pass oriented offense. When he was gone, they settled for Beanie, who seemed like a questionable fit from the start. I still think Beanie can succeed here, but grabbing LeSean McCoy would have made a lot more sense, especially since Beanie and Hightower have similar styles.

With Williams, we finally have a guy who fits a pass first offense. He's a natural receiver, and, most importantly, he can make people miss. That's an element we've lacked in the running game since I can't remember when. Beanie and Hightower either take what's blocked for them (which is usually very little) or bounce outside. Williams is far more elusive and scouts have raved about his vision. His blocking sounds suspect, but the same was said about McCoy, and he's turning out ok.

Housler followed the same pattern. Instead of getting a more balanced TE like Rudolph or Stocker, they took a chance on a guy who can create mismatches in the passing game. Housler probably has more athleticism than Spach, Dray and Patrick combined. If this offense is going to rely so heavily on the pass, it needs some speed. Now we have one of the faster TEs around.

The same thing with Sherman. Marecic and Bannon would have been better fits with a smash mouth offense, but Sherman is better for the scheme we actually run. He could be the most versatile FB on this team since Centers.

I still think it's crazy to run Whis' preferred offense without a real QB, but he's been around long enough for me to realize that this team isn't going to grind it out on the ground on a regular basis. All we need now are a few linemen who excel at pass blocking and some more speed at WR and the personnel will actually fit the philosophy.

Edge was really good at making people miss. Unfortunately he'd make the first guy miss 3 yards deep in the Cards backfield and then because of the delay getting away from that guy he'd get mobbed after a 3 yard gain.

James was the best I've ever seen in a Cards uniform at moving suddenly sideways to make a defender miss. Some analyst had a great name for the move but sadly I can't remember what it was.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Good stuff Kerouac.

My brother (Redrage) stated the same thing whe we were discussing the draft. If we have a successful free agency period and resign most of our own free agents (mainly Lutui, Sendlein, and Branch) I think this team is improved.

I agree with your take on Ryan Williams. He brings a different look to our running game that none of our other backs possess. IMO he's a pretty complete back; he can run for power a bit, he has some moves, and he catches the ball fairly well. A much more dynamic player than what we have.

Sometimes you don't draft need because you're afforded the opportunity to improve an already decent position to a position of strength. I think drafting Williams is an instance of this occurring.

 

[Cardiac]

Outstanding post K9.

 

[Duckjake]

Good stuff Kerouac.

My brother (Redrage) stated the same thing whe we were discussing the draft. If we have a successful free agency period and resign most of our own free agents (mainly Lutui, Sendlein, and Branch) I think this team is improved.

I agree with your take on Ryan Williams. He brings a different look to our running game that none of our other backs possess. IMO he's a pretty complete back; he can run for power a bit, he has some moves, and he catches the ball fairly well. A much more dynamic player than what we have.

Sometimes you don't draft need because you're afforded the opportunity to improve an already decent position to a position of strength. I think drafting Williams is an instance of this occurring.

I hope this is correct. It would really explain why the Cards took him. Beanie and TimH really struggled catching the ball last season. A better receiver at RB and at TE and we could see a lot fewer failures on 3rd and 6. Which just killed us on offense last year.

 

[Dayman]

Edge was really good at making people miss. Unfortunately he'd make the first guy miss 3 yards deep in the Cards backfield and then because of the delay getting away from that guy he'd get mobbed after a 3 yard gain.

James was the best I've ever seen in a Cards uniform at moving suddenly sideways to make a defender miss. Some analyst had a great name for the move but sadly I can't remember what it was.

That's true. He was good at dodging the first tackler, although he no longer had the acceleration to take advantage of those misses very often. Well, that and the O-line was absolutely horrid for the most part, leading to the mobbings you referenced.

Williams, however, seems like he's much more capable of stringing together multiple moves. The more I think about this pick, the more I like it.

 

[kerouac9]

What I liked most about the offensive side of this draft is that Whis is finally drafting players who fit his scheme. It was pretty apparent that the FO wanted Donald Brown two years ago, due to his fit in a more pass oriented offense. When he was gone, they settled for Beanie, who seemed like a questionable fit from the start. I still think Beanie can succeed here, but grabbing LeSean McCoy would have made a lot more sense, especially since Beanie and Hightower have similar styles.

With Williams, we finally have a guy who fits a pass first offense. He's a natural receiver, and, most importantly, he can make people miss. That's an element we've lacked in the running game since I can't remember when. Beanie and Hightower either take what's blocked for them (which is usually very little) or bounce outside. Williams is far more elusive and scouts have raved about his vision. His blocking sounds suspect, but the same was said about McCoy, and he's turning out ok.

Housler followed the same pattern. Instead of getting a more balanced TE like Rudolph or Stocker, they took a chance on a guy who can create mismatches in the passing game. Housler probably has more athleticism than Spach, Dray and Patrick combined. If this offense is going to rely so heavily on the pass, it needs some speed. Now we have one of the faster TEs around.

The same thing with Sherman. Marecic and Bannon would have been better fits with a smash mouth offense, but Sherman is better for the scheme we actually run. He could be the most versatile FB on this team since Centers.

I still think it's crazy to run Whis' preferred offense without a real QB, but he's been around long enough for me to realize that this team isn't going to grind it out on the ground on a regular basis. All we need now are a few linemen who excel at pass blocking and some more speed at WR and the personnel will actually fit the philosophy.

I'm not going that far, in part because I don't think Whis really knows what he wants in an offense. Why would it take him five years to figure how what kind of players he wants for "his" offense?

What does Whis's "preferred" offense look like?

 

[Catfish]

One other aside to consider with Sherman and Housler in the game. Both are very capable receivers who can run. No longer will the defense be able to key on personnel packages that we put into the game. We can bring in a FB on what may look like an obvious short yardage run play, and pass instead to him out of the backfield. He will once again make us think of Larry Centers and the confusion he caused for defenses. Housler will do much the same at the TE position. I like it a lot.

 

[Goldfield]

Great post K9

 

[D-Dogg]

I agree 100%, and just posted something similar on another thread.

I would prefer the draft always happened before FA, personally. Makes you draft better players, IMO, instead of reaching for need.

And need is better served by free agents that have proven they can play.

 

[DoTheDew]

The Cards said they were going to draft BPA. They stuck to their guns and when it was all said and done they still got the Pass Rusher and the SILB they needed.

I know a lot of people think Housler was a reach, but you have to remember every group of scouts is different. Just because none of the major publications saw him as a 3rd round talent, doesn't mean Steve Keim and company didn't see him that way. We got the fastest TE in the draft. He's a gamble, but he has the potential to create fits for opposing defenses ala Vernon Davis.

The fact that he played at a small school actually is encouraging to me. Since Whiz has gotten here we've had great success with this under the radar small school types. Credit to our scouting staff for spotting talent like Roberts, Toler, and THT.

 

[Duckjake]

The Cards said they were going to draft BPA. They stuck to their guns and when it was all said and done they still got the Pass Rusher and the SILB they needed.

I know a lot of people think Housler was a reach, but you have to remember every group of scouts is different. Just because none of the major publications saw him as a 3rd round talent, doesn't mean Steve Keim and company didn't see him that way. We got the fastest TE in the draft. He's a gamble, but he has the potential to create fits for opposing defenses ala Vernon Davis.

The fact that he played at a small school actually is encouraging to me. Since Whiz has gotten here we've had great success with this under the radar small school types. Credit to our scouting staff for spotting talent like Roberts, Toler, and THT.

True. Quan S was rated as a 3rd round pick and we got him in the 6th. Sort of evened things out.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I hope this is correct. It would really explain why the Cards took him. Beanie and TimH really struggled catching the ball last season. A better receiver at RB and at TE and we could see a lot fewer failures on 3rd and 6. Which just killed us on offense last year.

He's also the type of runner who is patient running behind blockers and then quickly darts through holes.
He could be really dynamic on screen passes.

I really like Ryan Williams in 2009, in fact I remember thinking "Damn, we have Beanie Wells, no way we'll draft this guy when he comes out."

He does have to prove that last years injury was a fluke since he only has one really productive year, but IMO this guy could be a big time playmaker which this offense sorely lacked last year.

 

[kerouac9]

The Cards said they were going to draft BPA. They stuck to their guns and when it was all said and done they still got the Pass Rusher and the SILB they needed.

I know a lot of people think Housler was a reach, but you have to remember every group of scouts is different. Just because none of the major publications saw him as a 3rd round talent, doesn't mean Steve Keim and company didn't see him that way. We got the fastest TE in the draft. He's a gamble, but he has the potential to create fits for opposing defenses ala Vernon Davis.

The fact that he played at a small school actually is encouraging to me. Since Whiz has gotten here we've had great success with this under the radar small school types. Credit to our scouting staff for spotting talent like Roberts, Toler, and THT.

I don't believe that Quan is big enough to play SILB in this defense. I think he projects as a backup to Daryl Washington and a special teams player. If you're rookie seventh-round pick is starting, you're not a very good football team.

As for Acho, I am second to no one in my enthusiasm for him. But he's not "the pass rusher" that we need. Joey Porter has to be replaced. Acho, IMO, projects as a long-term replacement for Clark Haggans, but we need someone to help spell O'Brien Schofield, because Joey Porter has nothing left as an NFL player.

CF - If Housler is in the game, we're passing. Because he can't block.

 

[football karma]

In watching the various post draft videos of Graves/ Whis -- there were various times when the conversation turned to free agency.

I was struck by how many times both Rod and Ken used the word "aggressive" in describing their intended approach.

"We have decided as an organization that we will be aggressive in improving our team either by free agency or trade". -Rod Graves

Allow me to translate --

"we have decided as an organization" = ownership is on board

"will be aggressive" = different from our approach in the past

"via trade" = Andy Reid, we are willing to deal

" or free agency" = some higher profile guys will be pursued

That's my take -- I hope it's correct

 

[Buckybird]

In watching the various post draft videos of Graves/ Whis -- there were various times when the conversation turned to free agency.

I was struck by how many times both Rod and Ken used the word "aggressive" in describing their intended approach.

"We have decided as an organization that we will be aggressive in improving our team either by free agency or trade". -Rod Graves

Allow me to translate --

"we have decided as an organization" = ownership is on board

"will be aggressive" = different from our approach in the past

"via trade" = Andy Reid, we are willing to deal

" or free agency" = some higher profile guys will be pursued

That's my take -- I hope it's correct

The problem is the Cards get agressive in FA 1 year, let their core players go the next, then get agressive again, etc...no a winning formula when your drafts aren't spot on!!! I've seen this story before.

 

[Cardiac]

In watching the various post draft videos of Graves/ Whis -- there were various times when the conversation turned to free agency.

I was struck by how many times both Rod and Ken used the word "aggressive" in describing their intended approach.

"We have decided as an organization that we will be aggressive in improving our team either by free agency or trade". -Rod Graves

Allow me to translate --

"we have decided as an organization" = ownership is on board

"will be aggressive" = different from our approach in the past

"via trade" = Andy Reid, we are willing to deal

" or free agency" = some higher profile guys will be pursued

That's my take -- I hope it's correct

I agree.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Okay, now that we have more options on offense with a FB that can catch, Williams who can catch, and a TE that can stretch the field, who will be able to see all this and make the throws?

Has to be a vet QB because Skelton still can't read the defense that well. Now what vet QB would be the best fit?

 

[Duckjake]

Okay, now that we have more options on offense with a FB that can catch, Williams who can catch, and a TE that can stretch the field, who will be able to see all this and make the throws?

Has to be a vet QB because Skelton still can't read the defense that well. Now what vet QB would be the best fit?

On the other hand I've heard analysts talk about how TEs and RBs are a young QBs best friends. His safety valves while he learns to read the defense to be able to get the ball downfield. So maybe those picks are a sign that the Cards plan to go with Skelator.

 

[Buckybird]

So maybe those picks are a sign that the Cards plan to go with Skelator.

You may be right, but IMO that leads to another 4-5 win season, the loss of Fitz & the possible firing of a HC...changes...again

 

[MrYeahBut]

You may be right, but IMO that leads to another 4-5 win season, the loss of Fitz & the possible firing of a HC...changes...again

Bucky, you gotta figure it's why they picked Housler and Williams. Can't do anything but help whoever is under center....assuming they can do what they were drafted for.