Carolina can lose next week and can back door in

[Cards_Campos]

Sucks but if Carolina loses... and we beat seattle...we are 6th seed but if we beat 49ers in final....we lose the 6th seed by winning!!!

 

[gmabel830]

Didn't think about that, but you are correct. Just the way the tie breakers work.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

The old saying, you can't win for losing.

 

[slanidrac16]

We own the tiebreaker with the Panthers but lose it if there is a 3 way tie with the 49er's

Panthers need to lose 2 or
Saints need to lose 2 or
the 49ers need to lose 2 or
the Panthers lose 2, we beat the Seahawks but lose to the 49er's

If we can somehow beat the Seahawks we will be tied with the loser of the Saints/Panthers game.

Of course if we win and the 49er's get upset we would be in control of our own destiny.

Got it? I think the breakdown is correct.

 

[vince56]

This is damn exciting.

 

[Buckybird]

You guys act like its a given we beat either the Niners or Hawks! How bout we beat 1 of them first!!! Still longgggg odds to make the playoffs

1 game at a time!!!

 

[gmabel830]

You guys act like its a given we beat either the Niners or Hawks! How bout we beat 1 of them first!!! Still longgggg odds to make the playoffs

1 game at a time!!!

It's all just fan talk... especially with news of a Palmer high ankle sprain and Fitz concussion, I think everyone is still realistic about how unlikely our playoff odds are, but that doesn't mean it's still not interesting to think through the scenarios.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

We are really banged up. Odds are stacking up against us.

Miami beat NE today so anything can happen.

 

[splitsecond]

We are screwed

 

[BigRedFan]

Sucks but if Carolina loses... and we beat seattle...we are 6th seed but if we beat 49ers in final....we lose the 6th seed by winning!!!

Disagree with this, I have written the possibilities out. I do not see a possibility where, given all other results the same, if the Cards win week 16 they are out and lose it they are in. Show with complete results.

 

[Stout]

I'm sorry, but that can't be right. Head to head is ALWAYS the first tie breaker. We'd have head to head with Carolina, so we'd go over them, then it would go to second tie breaker between them and San Fran, which San Fran would win. San Fran would also have the second tie breaker over us, which means they'd be the higher seed. Right?

 

[SECTION 11]

What difference does it make, it's rigged!! RIGGED!!!!

 

[gmabel830]

Disagree with this, I have written the possibilities out. I do not see a possibility where, given all other results the same, if the Cards win week 16 they are out and lose it they are in. Show with complete results.

If AZ and SF win and Carolina loses next week (seeds noted):

5. SF - 11-4
6. AZ - 10-5
7. CAR - 10-5

AZ would be 6 seed based on head to head win with CAR.

If CAR wins and we beat SF in Week 17, it would be:

5. CAR - 11-5
6. SF - 11-5
7. AZ - 11-5

We lose a 3-way tiebreaker with CAR & SF, as has been documented in several other threads. First the intra-division tiebreaker between us and SF would be broken, which we would lose based on division record. Then, CAR and SF would settle their tiebreaker, with CAR winning based on head-to-head victory.

 

[gmabel830]

I'm sorry, but that can't be right. Head to head is ALWAYS the first tie breaker. We'd have head to head with Carolina, so we'd go over them, then it would go to second tie breaker between them and San Fran, which San Fran would win. San Fran would also have the second tie breaker over us, which means they'd be the higher seed. Right?

Not in a 3-way tiebreaker situation. The first thing settled in a 3-way tiebreak is any intra-division teams tied. We would be tied head to head with San Fran (first rule) but lose out on division record (second rule).

Then SF would break their tie with CAR, which CAR wins based on head to head.

 

[BigRedFan]

yes, but if, in the below scenario, if AZ loses to SF they are still out. They are out, win or lose in that case. The seeding after week 15 is meaningless.

If AZ and SF win and Carolina loses next week (seeds noted):

5. SF - 11-4
6. AZ - 10-5
7. CAR - 10-5

AZ would be 6 seed based on head to head win with CAR.

If CAR wins and we beat SF in Week 17, it would be:

5. CAR - 11-5
6. SF - 11-5
7. AZ - 11-5

We lose a 3-way tiebreaker with CAR & SF, as has been documented in several other threads. First the intra-division tiebreaker between us and SF would be broken, which we would lose based on division record. Then, CAR and SF would settle their tiebreaker, with CAR winning based on head-to-head victory.

 

[BigRedFan]

If Az beats Seattle, Carolina loses to NO, and SF loses to ATL in week 15, then..
AZ gets in by beating SF. They can also get in if they lose and Carolina loses to ATL

If Az beats Seattle, Carolina loses to NO, and SF beats ATL in week 15 then..
if Carolina beats ATL, AZ is out win or lose. If Carolina loses to ATL, AZ is in, win or lose.

If AZ loses to Seattle, they should root for SF to beat ATL so that, if AZ beats SF and CARO loses to ATL in 16, a 3 way tie will be avoided.

That's my best summary.

 

[gmabel830]

If Az beats Seattle, Carolina loses to NO, and SF loses to ATL in week 15, then..
AZ gets in by beating SF. They can also get in if they lose and Carolina loses to ATL

If Az beats Seattle, Carolina loses to NO, and SF beats ATL in week 15 then..
if Carolina beats ATL, AZ is out win or lose. If Carolina loses to ATL, AZ is in, win or lose.

If AZ loses to Seattle, they should root for SF to beat ATL so that, if AZ beats SF and CARO loses to ATL in 16, a 3 way tie will be avoided.

That's my best summary.

I don't think I disagree with any of these scenarios, but the original poster was pointing out that there is a scenario where after Week #16 we could technically be in the 6th seed at that point in time, and then win in Week #17 and not make the playoffs (which is the scenario I summarized, and essentially your second scenario). He wasn't saying we would clinch a spot or be eliminated after next week, but just pointing out we could head into the last week of the season technically as the 6th seed in the playoffs, win the game, and still miss the playoffs after the week given the tiebreakers.

 

[BigRedFan]

I don't think I disagree with any of these scenarios, but the original poster was pointing out that there is a scenario where after Week #16 we could technically be in the 6th seed at that point in time, and then win in Week #17 and not make the playoffs (which is the scenario I summarized, and essentially your second scenario). He wasn't saying we would clinch a spot or be eliminated after next week, but just pointing out we could head into the last week of the season technically as the 6th seed in the playoffs, win the game, and still miss the playoffs after the week given the tiebreakers.

I agree with that. There is no scenario where throwing the game would make the playoffs and winning be out. Yes in that scenario, winning pulls SF back into the tie (if Caro wins). If Caro loses it doesnt matter.

 

[BillsCarnage]

The only way the Cards can make the POs at this point is to have a better record than one of these three - SF/NO/CAR. Pretty much end of story.

Don't forget in tie-breakers, seeding also is at play top down. In this case seed 5 comes first and then the tie-breakers kick in. Then seed 6.

 

[Stout]

Not in a 3-way tiebreaker situation. The first thing settled in a 3-way tiebreak is any intra-division teams tied. We would be tied head to head with San Fran (first rule) but lose out on division record (second rule).

Then SF would break their tie with CAR, which CAR wins based on head to head.

That doesn't make any sense at all. If you beat a team, you can't lose a tie-breaker with them. You can't, that's just plain garbage! First tiebreaker should always, ALWAYS be head-to-head games. So we would, in this scenario, tie head-to-head with San Fran. We beat Carolina. Carolina beat San Fran. We go in as the five-seed and Carolina as the six-seed. Very, very simple.

What's this crap about we have to break a tie with San Fran and not Carolina? I'm not saying it isn't true, but logically speaking it makes zero sense. Why would the NFL make a boneheaded, nonsensical rule like this?

 

[crisper57]

That doesn't make any sense at all. If you beat a team, you can't lose a tie-breaker with them. You can't, that's just plain garbage! First tiebreaker should always, ALWAYS be head-to-head games. So we would, in this scenario, tie head-to-head with San Fran. We beat Carolina. Carolina beat San Fran. We go in as the five-seed and Carolina as the six-seed. Very, very simple.

What's this crap about we have to break a tie with San Fran and not Carolina? I'm not saying it isn't true, but logically speaking it makes zero sense. Why would the NFL make a boneheaded, nonsensical rule like this?

Head-to-head is the first tie-breaker, only when two teams from the same division aren't involved.

Divisional tie-breaker goes first if two teams are from the same division. We can't catch SF on that front. They already have 4 divisional wins and we have 1 with 2 left to play. So by the NFL rules, we'd be the first team eliminated in that scenario because SF's divisional record is better. The next tie-breaker would then be head-to-head. That would give Carolina the 5 seed.

We then do the whole thing over for the #6 seed, between AZ and SF. They have the better divisional record, so they are in and we are out.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

That doesn't make any sense at all. If you beat a team, you can't lose a tie-breaker with them. You can't, that's just plain garbage! First tiebreaker should always, ALWAYS be head-to-head games. So we would, in this scenario, tie head-to-head with San Fran. We beat Carolina. Carolina beat San Fran. We go in as the five-seed and Carolina as the six-seed. Very, very simple.

What's this crap about we have to break a tie with San Fran and not Carolina? I'm not saying it isn't true, but logically speaking it makes zero sense. Why would the NFL make a boneheaded, nonsensical rule like this?

Because head to head doesn't always work with 3 teams.

Take us, Carolina and SF. We beat Carolina, but Carolina beat SF, and SF beat us. Everyone won and everyone lost. There is no head to head winner.

 

[Chaz]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

This page is pretty cool.

 

[jmt]

The only way the Cards can make the POs at this point is to have a better record than one of these three - SF/NO/CAR. Pretty much end of story.

Don't forget in tie-breakers, seeding also is at play top down. In this case seed 5 comes first and then the tie-breakers kick in. Then seed 6.

I think you've got it! Carolina is in with win. We need to win two tough ones and hope NO, Car or SF lose two.

 

[daves]

So we would, in this scenario, tie head-to-head with San Fran. We beat Carolina. Carolina beat San Fran. We go in as the five-seed and Carolina as the six-seed. Very, very simple.

What's this crap about we have to break a tie with San Fran and not Carolina? I'm not saying it isn't true, but logically speaking it makes zero sense. Why would the NFL make a boneheaded, nonsensical rule like this?

Unfortunately, it makes perfect sense. How could the Cardinals get in ahead of the 49ers, when the 49ers are ranked ahead of the Cardinals in their own division?! Now THAT would be illogical. Why have divisions at all if the order of finish within the division doesn't take precedence?

Head-to-head is the first tie-breaker, only when two teams from the same division aren't involved.

Divisional tie-breaker goes first if two teams are from the same division.

Not quite right. Head-to-head is still first within the division, but in the scenarios being contemplated where the Cardinals beat the 49ers in week 17, those two teams would be tied 1-1 head-to-head, so the second tie-breaker, division record, comes into play.

...dave