Centers of Contention

[George O'Brien]

At the end of the season, the Suns had six inside guys under contract (ignoring Keon of course):

Stoudemire
Voskuhl
Lampe
White
McDyess
Harvey

I am guessing there is about a 75% probability that White will be gone by next season. (5% that Eisley gets taken by the Bobcats and 20% that neither are taken).

I am doubtful that the Suns will bring back Harvey unless they have no choice.

This leaves the Suns with only three inside guys under contract: Stoudemire, Voskuhl, and Lampe. I'm guessing there is a slightly better than a 50-50 chance that Dice will return. But even if he does, that leaves the Suns with only four inside guys. (The Suns can play small ball with Marion or Carbakapa, but that is not really an answer).

The Suns chances of getting help through the draft are not wonderful. Okafor and Howard are going to be gone in the first three picks. Biedrins is a likely pick by the Wizzards or even the Hawks at #5. After that, none of the other big men are likely to get more than 500 minutes next season (Darko had 175 minutes and Lampe had 224 this season to give perspective).

Dampier and Camby are the best prospects, but both have a history of injuries and are likely to be fairly expensive. Dampier would be leaving a player option of $8.1 million for next season and is likely to want more. Camby has said he wants a six year, $60 million deal which is ridiculous. But he is unlikely to take much less than $7 million to start. Denver has a lot of cap space and are likely to re-sign him anyway.

Kenyon Martin is a restricted free agent who wants a max contract. He is strictly a power forward and wouldn't be a fit for the Suns. However, if he moves to a team like Denver, it would impact the bargaining power of Camby who might actually be forced to reduce his asking price.


The next tier are Okur and Mark Blount. Both are likely to be available at or just above $5 million. Both are healthy. Okur is better on offense and is younger. Blount is better on defense but only started showing much this season.

Okur is likely to get a lot of attention because he is widely assume to be anxious to leave the Pistons. While he has been rumored to be interested in Phoenix, Utah with a massive amount of cap space and a perceived unwillingness to re-sign Ostertag would seem to have the inside track unless they go for Dampier.

Blount get mentioned in relation to teams with only an MLE to offer. In theory the Suns would have the inside track since they can offer more, but it is not clear if he would be interested in going to the much more demanding Western Conference.

The third tier is made up of guys who are expected to get less than the MLE such as Foyle, Etan Thomas, Ostertag, Przybilla, McDyess, and even Keon Clark. Foyle was injured for much of the season and is a career backup. Etan Thomas is a restricted free agent and is likely to be re-signed by the Wizzards unless they draft a big guy. Ostertag will find work somewhere, but is not a good fit for the Suns. Przybilla actually played pretty well for the Hawks and is an RFA so he is unlikely to leave. Keon Clark's health status is unclear, but the Suns have not shown any interest in keeping him.

Vlade Divac will be available, but it is very likely he will re-sign with the Kings. For all the discussion about blowing up the Kings, their salary structure makes it likely they will keep trying with the guys they have including Divac.


What will the Suns do? A lot depends on whether they think Lampe will become a starter in the next year of two. If he is the center of the future, then their objective would be to find a stop gap to fill the hole left by White with the expectation that the player would be Lampe's backup in a year of two.

If they have doubts about whether Lampe will become their starting center or even a center at all, then they would need to be looking at someone who can start for a quite a while.

Assuming White goes to the Bobcats, I would guess the Suns would try to do two of three:

1. draft immediate help on the inside
2. sign a free agent big man
3. re-sign McDyess

They might draft a Euro and leave him in Europe or draft a guard. If Okafor is drafted and the Suns can sign a FA center, they might not try very hard to re-sign Dice.

BTW, if the Suns manage to get the Bobcats to take Eisley instead of White, it seems unlikely they will be chasing a free agent center this summer. A more likley scenerio would be to make a trade for a center in a deal that included White's expiring contract.

 

[F-Dog]

I am guessing there is about a 75% probability that White will be gone by next season. (5% that Eisley gets taken by the Bobcats and 20% that neither are taken).

75% seems way too high to me.

I don't see why the Suns would give away Cleveland's pick unless Kobe was forcing himself on them--what other use would they have for the extra cap space?--and IMO there's no chance the Bobcats will take Jahidi without compensation.

 

[George O'Brien]

75% seems way too high to me.

I don't see why the Suns would give away Cleveland's pick unless Kobe was forcing himself on them--what other use would they have for the extra cap space?--and IMO there's no chance the Bobcats will take Jahidi without compensation.

The Bobcats have to take 14 players. Even without the $3 million, my estimate is that White is about the 8th or 9th cheapest option they are likely to be offered. If they stay with their plan of taking the least expensive players available, White is gone.

There are some teams that may put fringe players on the list to be sure to unload them. But if most teams stay with the plan of putting their ugly contracts on the availability list, I think White will look pretty reasonable.

 

[Joe Mama]

Of course you are assuming that the expansion draft is going to be a rather simple, straight up there. There is likely going to be a whole lot of wheeling and dealing involved.

I really believe it's going to take at least that Cleveland draft pick to unload Jahidi White, and I definitely think it would be worth it.

Joe Mama

 

[elindholm]

I don't see why the Suns would give away Cleveland's pick unless Kobe was forcing himself on them

LOL, magnificent choice of words!

 

[George O'Brien]

Of course you are assuming that the expansion draft is going to be a rather simple, straight up there. There is likely going to be a whole lot of wheeling and dealing involved.

I really believe it's going to take at least that Cleveland draft pick to unload Jahidi White, and I definitely think it would be worth it.

Joe Mama

The case for unloading White while not expected to get Kobe is that it would "permit" finding a long term solution at center. Blount and Okur would be roughly the same price, Etan Thomas and Foyle for less, and Dampier and Camby for more.

If you don't like those options, then keeping White and the pick season makes the most sense. White has trade value as an expiring contract and on a team like Toronto that has no power players.

 

[Errntknght]

Okur is not inflating his stock in the playoffs from what I've seen. LB had him on the floor a fair amount against the Pacers thanks to Rasheed's foul trouble and I followed him on both ends of the floor. He's decent but there was nothing at all that you could call a flash. He was primarily guarding Foster and didn't go to sleep on the job but, on the other hand, he didn't help out much on anyone else. He blocked out reasonably well but didn't grab any contested rebounds. I would say he does know what his job is but that he doesn't have great instincts nor does he react or move quickly.

On the offensive end he stayed on the perimeter and moved into midrange at times but never went down low. He set pretty good screens and didn't force his shot. He did force a couple of passes into traffic and Indiana stole them both - it's to his credit he was trying to make a play but the results weren't good. He had one open midrange shot which he took with confidence and made... he probably took a couple of more but I don't recall them. I'll watch him in tonight's game.

He's very similar to Lampe in size and the style of his play. I'd give the edge to Okur as far as being versed in what's expected of him and playing within himself - but after at least two years with the coaches he's had, that's what you'd expect. Lampe gets up and down the floor faster and plays with more energy. It's close but I'd say Lampe is slightly quicker and has better footwork. If I had to pick between them for one year, I guess I'd have to go with Okur but long range I think Lampe will be the better player though not tremendously better.

 

[elindholm]

If I had to pick between them for one year, I guess I'd have to go with Okur but long range I think Lampe will be the better player though not tremendously better.

You left out the part about how none of it matters, since the coaching staff is perpetually incompetent and as a result the franchise will never amount to anything.

 

[Chaplin]

You left out the part about how none of it matters, since the coaching staff is perpetually incompetent and as a result the franchise will never amount to anything.

 

[sunsfn]

Remember this report and the comments about the suns giving him some kind of a promise. (at the bottom)
----------------------------------------
2004 NBA Draft Insider Player Cards

by Chad Ford
Friday, March 12

Martynas Andriuskevicius
CENTER | TEAM: ZALGRIS (Lithuania)
AGE: 18 | HT/WT: 7-3, 250 | STATS: N/A
INSIDER RANKING: Centers (1) | Overall (6)

Martynas Andriuskevicius was a surprise late entry into the NBA draft. But will he stay in?

Notes: This year's Pavel Podkolzine. Several GMs and scouts saw him at a junior tournament at last year's Euroleague Final Four in Barcelona and again at Basketball Without Borders in Treviso, Italy. He was a down-the-road type prospect then. His development over the past six months has been just short of amazing and is forcing everyone to reevaluate him. He recently played in a junior tournament in Italy and scored 20 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in front of a host of NBA GMs and scouts. His agent, Herb Rudoy, told Insider that Andrisukevicius has entered his name into the 2004 NBA draft.
Upside: He's big and very, very skilled. Scouts claim that he has great hands, is a fantastic passer and doesn't shy away from contact despite his thin frame. He's got great quickness for his size and is capable of playing both inside and outside. The fact that he's being tutored daily by Arvydas Sabonis is evident according to scouts.

Downside: The knock on him last summer was that he was just way too thin to play in the pros anytime soon. However, over the last six months, scouts claim that he's added 25 pounds of muscle and keeps growing. However he wasn't very impressive at a recent junior's tournament in Tel Aviv, Israel. While he showed a ton of skill, his body is still too weak to hold position in the paint. If that's a problem at the junior level, you can only imagine what will happen in the pros. Martynas' game is still pretty raw. He still needs more strength and playing experience, but there is little not to like. Is he a little injury prone?

Insider Projection: Insider got a tip on Andriuskevicius after one of our favorite scouts, the Clippers' Fabrizio Besnati (the same guy who tipped us off to Pavel last season), ran into him on a trip through Lithuania and was blown away. Since then, numerous NBA scouts have told Insider that, on sheer talent and size, Andriuskevicius may be the best international prospect in the draft this year. He'll likely be the first center taken in the draft and should go somewhere in the top 10.

The rumor du jour of the moment is that he entered the draft on behest of the Phoenix Suns. If the Suns don't get one of the top 3 picks in the lottery, they'll be drafting seventh and the word around the league is that Andriuskevicius is their guy.

 

[George O'Brien]

And Chad Ford is always right...

To me, the Andriuskevicius pick only makes sense if the Suns plan to leave him Europe for a couple of years.

 

[Errntknght]

Okur was much more aggressive in tonight's game. He worked down on the low block most of the time and was somewhat successful. He got to the line a couple of times and made all 4 of his FTs, which was key as the other Pistons were missing theirs at the time. Looked good knocking down a 3 pointer, too. No bad passes and he made one nice one to Williamson cutting down the lane - no assist as Corliss was fouled and missed the shot.
On defense he was more involved and made a nice stop on Harrington plus he blocked an O'Neal shot with some help from Prince. He also looked bad a few times due to slow reaction time. Twice he was in position to contest shots and just spectated. He did get two rebounds in traffic but fumbled an uncontested one out of bounds.



Eric, "You left out the part about how none of it matters, since the coaching staff is perpetually incompetent and as a result the franchise will never amount to anything."

The Colangelo influence is on the wane so there is reason to hope. Heck, I'm only 66 - I figure there's a good chance I'll get to see a decent coach running the Sunnies after all these years of torture.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

The Colangelo influence is on the wane so there is reason to hope. Heck, I'm only 66 - I figure there's a good chance I'll get to see a decent coach running the Sunnies after all these years of torture.

JC is CEO for 3 more years, and Chairman after that.

BC is an investor, and 1 of the 3 members of the new management team.

Although technically there is less complete control from the Cs, I wouldn't go as far to say it is on the wane.

 

[F-Dog]

I'm watching Okur too, and I'm seeing the same things that Errntknight is. Okur looked much better in the first half of yesterday's game; the second half, his tentativeness was back--maybe he knew he wouldn't be out there too long.

I like the fact that Okur finds someone to put a body on when D-rebounding, and can still go and get the ball afterward. On defense, he seems well-schooled but not instinctive; my guess is that he'll look more polished after a year or two's worth of PT.


I still think Okur is the best FA fit for the Suns if they don't draft a center--even if Lampe turns out to be the same kind of player. There's something to be said for having two young centers who can play both ends (even if they give your team a similar look), instead of constantly trying to cover for the weaknesses of specialists.

 

[George O'Brien]

I'm watching Okur too, and I'm seeing the same things that Errntknight is. Okur looked much better in the first half of yesterday's game; the second half, his tentativeness was back--maybe he knew he wouldn't be out there too long.

I like the fact that Okur finds someone to put a body on when D-rebounding, and can still go and get the ball afterward. On defense, he seems well-schooled but not instinctive; my guess is that he'll look more polished after a year or two's worth of PT.

I still think Okur is the best FA fit for the Suns if they don't draft a center--even if Lampe turns out to be the same kind of player. There's something to be said for having two young centers who can play both ends (even if they give your team a similar look), instead of constantly trying to cover for the weaknesses of specialists.

I don't mind two centers who can run the same offense. In fact, one of the reasons I'm not enthusiastic about Dampier is that he would require a big change in the offense when he's in. Camby, Okur, and even Blount appear better suited for the Suns than Dampier - although I'd love to have his defense and rebounding.

For better or worse, the Suns will run some kind of high post offense. It may be the high post pick and roll of the FJ period, or more of a passing shooting style like the Kings, but there is little doubt that the Suns center will have to play that style. It is part of the reason I suspect the Suns will end up moving White even though they will have a hard time replacing his strength.

The hard part is finding someone who can play the high post, but be strong enough to defende the low post.

 

[Errntknght]

As I've said, I think bringing in a high-post center would be beneficial to the team because D'Antoni would be more likely to implement a true high post offense if it fit the guy who was undisputedly the starting center. If you recall, last year when Lampe was on the floor none of his teammates were cutting or otherwise moving like they expected him to pass to them - meaning there were not the rudiments of a high post offense in the coach's plans then. Lampe doesn't figure to begin next year as the starting center so I can't imagine the coach tailoring the offense to fit his game.

My preference would be to get Vlade because he could tutor both Lampe and D'Antoni in the high-post offense - which I can't see Okur doing. Also, Vlade wouldn't want big minutes so it would be natural to develope Lampe at a brisk pace. Then there's the question of salary - Okur for six years escalating from 7 million is a trifle scary to me. He's got to progress a good bit to be worth that so if Lampe was clearly better after two years, we might be saddled with a very high priced sub.

Here's an interesting exercise: imagine or draw a picture of a center at the high-post, Amare in the low post and the two guards on the wings. What part of the floor looks unused? Yep, the baseline... which is the fundamental reason I keep saying we need Marion or some other SF working the baseline. Also note that the high post C is in great position to pass to the baseline man and that the baseline man's defender is badly placed to watch his man and the ball. He'll often be the closest opponent for helping on Amare, making his job more difficult - a quick peek on a fake pass to Amare and Shawn is at the rim for a lob.

 

[George O'Brien]

As I've said, I think bringing in a high-post center would be beneficial to the team because D'Antoni would be more likely to implement a true high post offense if it fit the guy who was undisputedly the starting center. If you recall, last year when Lampe was on the floor none of his teammates were cutting or otherwise moving like they expected him to pass to them - meaning there were not the rudiments of a high post offense in the coach's plans then. Lampe doesn't figure to begin next year as the starting center so I can't imagine the coach tailoring the offense to fit his game.

My preference would be to get Vlade because he could tutor both Lampe and D'Antoni in the high-post offense - which I can't see Okur doing. Also, Vlade wouldn't want big minutes so it would be natural to develope Lampe at a brisk pace. Then there's the question of salary - Okur for six years escalating from 7 million is a trifle scary to me. He's got to progress a good bit to be worth that so if Lampe was clearly better after two years, we might be saddled with a very high priced sub.

Here's an interesting exercise: imagine or draw a picture of a center at the high-post, Amare in the low post and the two guards on the wings. What part of the floor looks unused? Yep, the baseline... which is the fundamental reason I keep saying we need Marion or some other SF working the baseline. Also note that the high post C is in great position to pass to the baseline man and that the baseline man's defender is badly placed to watch his man and the ball. He'll often be the closest opponent for helping on Amare, making his job more difficult - a quick peek on a fake pass to Amare and Shawn is at the rim for a lob.

The Suns basically stayed within the same offensive system that FJ had run. It looked different because Marbury wasn't there and the personnel were different, but it was still the pick and roll oriented approach. It is possible to get a lot more movement and more passing, etc. and stil run the same basic offense. I'd like to see them change, but it would not be the end of the world if they just ran their offense better.

I can understand you point about Divac, but I can't see it happening. The Kings will pay him what it takes to keep him for another year or two. For the Suns to sign him would mean chewing up a lot of cap space for a guy who would only be a short term solution.

For a short term solution, I'd just as soon try to keep Dice. He is not as skilled a passer, but otherwise he has many of the same traits as Divac. With luck, Dice might return to something close to his old form. Divac will never be any better than he is and probably will continue to decline.

 

[sunsfn]

If the suns end up with the 7-8th pick in the draft, it seems like whoever they draft they would want that player to be here and playing for them.
If they trade down that would be different.

If the suns are thinking about either Beidrens or Andriuskevicius on their pick, and they are both there, I believe they will take Beidrens because he is coming over now.

To use the 7th pick and let him stay in Europe does not seem like the thing a team would do. Although stranger things have happened.

I will be watching to see if Andriuskevicius pulls his name out of the draft.

 

[Joe Mama]

If the suns end up with the 7-8th pick in the draft, it seems like whoever they draft they would want that player to be here and playing for them.
If they trade down that would be different.

If the suns are thinking about either Beidrens or Andriuskevicius on their pick, and they are both there, I believe they will take Beidrens because he is coming over now.

To use the 7th pick and let him stay in Europe does not seem like the thing a team would do. Although stranger things have happened.

I will be watching to see if Andriuskevicius pulls his name out of the draft.

I'll start by saying that there's no way the Phoenix Suns gave anybody a promise yet. I mean Bryan Colangelo is in the paper today talking about the possibility that they could use the draft pick as part of a deal. If the suns had anything to do with Andriuskevicius declaring it was just to tell him that there was a decent chance they would be willing to take him. They certainly did not promise him. I'm sure of that. Now if he stays in the draft its pretty safe to assume that somebody has promised him a spot in the lottery.

That said, if the Phoenix Suns feel that Andriuskevicius is going to be a special player and much better than what's left on the board it would make some sense to take him. They could give him another year to develop before his rookie contract with start. It would also free approximately $2 million in salary cap this summer.

Joe