Charlie Rosen's take (article)

Joe Mama

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I usually do not like Charlie Rosen. In fact I usually despise him. I think this is a pretty good take on the match ups. He must be looking primarily at Game 1 or really not counting on much from JJ when he returns. He talks about the bench/backup players when he talks about the positional match ups. As a whole I would say San Antonio has a big advantage off the bench even when JJ is healthy. In this first game without JJ it's going to be huge.

Enjoy,
Joe


Spurs-Suns promises a classic matchup

Charley Rosen / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 13 hours ago


It's the NBA's stingiest defense pitted against the league's most prolific offense in a wide-open baseline-to-baseline game that's packed with fascinating matchups.

CENTER
Amare Stoudemire has precipitously become a monster in the middle. All quickness and bounce, he's totally in synch with Steve Nash's eagle-eyed creativity. The Suns want to get the ball to Stoudemire while he's moving — mostly in screen/rolls and timely cuts. His mid-range jumper is iffy, but when Stoudemire is only one or two dribbles away from the rim his flippers, jump hooks and devastating dunkers are irresistible.


At the same time, the 22-year-old is too inexperienced not to be rattled by aggressive double-teams. He's a reluctant passer, and defenses that are quick enough to two-time him while he's still dribbling can induce turnovers.


On defense, Stoudemire wants to block shots — and that's about all he does well.


Manning the middle for the Spurs is Nazr Mohammed, a journeyman player who can rebound, dunk and net an occasional jump hook. If Mohammed is left to play Stoudemire one-on-one, he'll be destroyed. Look for the Spurs to give Mohammed all the help he needs. They might consider forcing Stoudemire baseline and then two-timing him with another big man. The Spurs sport the NBA's quickest and most precisely coordinated defensive rotations, but Stoudemire's speed in the paint will present their greatest challenge so far.


What else to do to keep this guy under control?


Be so aggressive in doubling high S/Rs that Nash is forced to retreat a step or two, and then unroll their rotation so that the middle is well-protected. At the same time, the defense has to make sure that the weak-side 3-point threat is at least two passes away. Not an easy task. If speed kills, then Stoudemire's jets are capable of mortally wounding the Spurs.


But the resourceful Spurs do have a not-so-secret weapon to use against Stoudemire — Tim Duncan. It's too risky to have TD cover Stoudemire on a regular basis because of the potential for foul trouble. But Duncan, with his long arms, athleticism, impeccable timing, and uncanny instincts, remains one of the finest post-defenders in the known world. Even if he's burdened with foul trouble, look for Duncan to shadow Stoudemire in the end-game. And because of TD's experience and versatility, Stoudemire will have more trouble defending him than vice versa.


Steven Hunter plays in lieu of Stoudemire. He's a leansome 7-footer who's active in the paint but lacks strength. Hunter versus Mohammed is a wash, but it's hard to believe that Mike D'Antoni would allow Hunter to guard Duncan for more than a few minutes per game.


San Antoinio's third center is Rasha Nesterovic, an underrated player with good hands, smarts, an excellent short-range jumper, and an effective jump hook. Defense is Nesterovic's weak spot, and except for some emergency time against Hunter, Rasha will most likely remain a spectator for the duration.


The Stoudemire-Duncan clutch-time matchup favors San Antonio. Otherwise, Phoenix enjoys a monstrous advantage.


POWER FORWARD
Shawn Marion's adhesive defense ultimately turned Dirk Nowitski into a shot-botching, screaming loser. The Matrix is easily the most athletic non-guard in the league, and his first two steps are quicker than anybody's. (Did I mention that he was also the quickest off the floorboards?) Marion's defense is not the in-your-face, lock-the-door-and-swallow-the-key variety as practiced by Bruce Bowen.


Shawn Marion's defense forced Dirk Nowitzki into a lot of lousy shots.
(Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)


What Marion does is use his spring, his quickness and his toughness to gradually wear down his opponents. Beating them to their favorite spots, recovering from convincing fakes and missteps to appear out of nowhere and still bother what appeared to be an open shot — never quitting on a play. Capable of challenging an entry pass and then blocking a subsequent shot.


(And to think that he's never been elected to either the First or Second All-Defense Team!)


On offense, Marion can score 30-plus without having his number called. Running and jumping are his delights. He can catch and shoot (with exceptional 3-point range), pull-up, and or blow past just about any erstwhile defender. Marion cuts, slashes and routinely finds his way to the basket.


The pairing of Marion and Duncan will be one of the many highlights this series has to offer.


Duncan, of course, is the best of the best. Not particularly huge, strong, quick, or flashy, TD simply knows how to play. Inside, outside or in between, TD is always a threat to hit an important game-changing shot. That said, look for Marion's sheer quickness to take away Duncan's mid-range game. The logical move is for TD to take Marion into the low-post to maximize his sizeable physical advantages — five inches, 45 pounds, higher shoulders, and longer arms. Marion's instant-ups might get to some of Duncan's shots, but TD will be a dreadnaught in the pivot unless Phoenix chooses to double-down.


Ah, but does Duncan (or any other power forward) have the foot speed and reflexes to chase Marion around the perimeter?


Nope. Unless Duncan guesses correctly on any given sequence, Marion will be able to shoot and/or scoot as he wishes.


Both team defenses will have to make multiple adjustments to keep Duncan from overpowering Marion inside, and Marion from blitzing Duncan from the outskirts.


Behind Marion lurks Walter McCarty, a lanky, experienced defender who can make Duncan work hard. McCarty is also an example of a shooter who needs to shoot in order to make shots — in other words, his lack of playing time (game shots) has just about atrophied his hitherto fore remarkable 3-point accuracy.


Robert Horry plays power forward when Duncan is taking a breather. This guy makes plays —clutch 3-pointers, rebounds, blocked shots, steals, running down loose balls — whatever the situation calls for. Horry has the goods to make Marion sweat for his points (and to negate McCarty). But unless Marion is busily helping out elsewhere, he can throw a bag over Horry's offense.


In the closing minutes of a tight game, Mohammed will sit, Horry will play the 4-position, and Duncan will be the Spurs center.


Advantage, Spurs. Mainly because Marion will commit more fouls defending Duncan inside than TD will pick up while guarding Marion outside. In the end-game, however, when the matchup will be Marion-Horry, Phoenix gets the nod.


SMALL FORWARD
In the absence of Joe Johnson, Jimmy Jackson has been thrust into the breach. While there's considerable mileage on his 34-year-old legs, Jackson remains a deadly 3-point shooter, a clever (if reluctant) driver, and an adequate defender.


Jackson's post-up game (replete with deadly turn-around-jumpers) is long gone. These days, his primary function on offense is to camp out in the parking lot and wait for Nash to drop a dime in to his waiting hands. Then it's bombs away!


Opposite Jackson is Bruce Bowen, the league's most physical (did somebody say "dirty?") wing-defender. Should Bowen indeed be assigned to shadow Jackson, the result just might approach a total shutdown.


On offense, Bowen mirrors Jackson's status — waiting in one corner or the other for a swing pass and then launching a 3-ball. Against Seattle, however, Bowen surprised everybody with several hard drives coupled with penetrations-and-pops. Even so, Bowen's handle is undependable. Because of Bowen's limited offense, it's quite conceivable that Jackson could also pitch a shutout.


There are several X-factors at this position: If Joe Johnson does return to action, how effective will he be? Probably not very — especially when faced (even face-masked) with Bowen's rough-and-ready defense.


Another variable is the probability of Manu Ginobili putting in significant minutes at the small forward. Look for Ginobili to put Jackson in his pocket.


Brent Barry and Glenn Robinson are San Antonio's other candidates for limited duty here. Meanwhile, Quentin Richardson will fill in for Jackson, particularly if Johnson isn't ready.


Let's address all these additional combinations and permutations: Barry's reckless ventures into the paint, earnest but unsatisfactory defense, and erratic long-ball accuracy would be liabilities against both Richardson and a healthy Johnson. Barry's best chance for success on both ends of the court would come opposite Jackson. Robinson can post and shoot over any of the Suns' small forwards, but could only be effective in defense on Jackson.


The Jackson-Bowen confrontation is just about even. Phoenix enjoys a slight edge otherwise.


SHOOTING GUARD
Has anybody seen Quentin Richardson in the past 10 days? Oh, is he the guy who keeps missing 3's? The guy who takes the ball to the basket only once or twice per game? The guy who's been doing a fantastic impersonation of Claude Raines?


If the real Richardson — 3-ball expert, hard-driver and smash-mouth defender — continues to be AWOL, then the Suns are doomed.


For San Antonio, Ginobili has become the main generator on offense. His first move is usually a jab step to get his defender off-balance — from there he wants to take the ball to the basket. Ginobili has a nifty right-to-left crossover and will drive right then spin back to his left. Although he's intent on dashing to the rim, he'll always look for a late kick-out to a shooter. Ginobili sometimes gets in trouble, though, when he leaves his feet and then tries to locate a passing option. A streaky outside shooter, Ginobili should be played soft to discourage his ball penetration — that means going under any S/R that involves him.


What makes Ginobili such an effective driver is his unpredictability. His last step is long and quick, he has great arm extension, quick hops, and shows the most release points since the salad days of Bernard King.


But Ginobili is very vulnerable on defense. His main gambit is to gamble for steals. If there's a Richardson sighting in the next 10 days, then Ginobili just might be more scored upon more than scoring himself. If not, then Ginobili will run wild.


Barry backs up Ginobili, and whether he's a plus or a minus likewise depends on the state of Richardson's chops. Leandro Barbosa backs up the 2-slot — a streaky 3-point shooter with a low release, a finisher in an open field, but otherwise young and easily confused.


Considerable advantage to San Antonio, the size of which could increase or decrease depending on Richardson's visibility.


POINT GUARD
What can be added to the accolades that Nash has already received? He's easily the most dominant point guard since Magic Johnson. (Allen Iverson is a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body.)


The only way to keep Nash from dissecting San Antonio's vaunted defense is to play him one-on-one. Let him shoot his way to another 48-point performance (which the Suns lost), make him a finisher, and keep him from being a facilitator. If he must be fouled, hammer him to the floor. And exploit as much as possible Nash's quick-handed but weakling defense.


Tony Parker has winged feet, an affinity for passing, and an ability to knock down long-range jumpers given enough time and space to settle into a spot. On a fast break, or in penetration, watch him fake left, then spin right for a duck-under flip shot. He will, however, turn the ball over in a crowd, and play gambling defense. Left to his own devices, Parker will have limited success in containing Nash.


Beno Udrih gets a short rotation at the point. He's a long-ball shooter and a surprising driver with a shaky handle, who will get eaten alive by Nash.


Barbosa backs up Nash and will have difficulty trying to solve the Spurs' half-court defense should the game ever slow down. Look for Barbosa and Udrih to spend most of their court-time battling each other to a draw.


Nash's creativity trumps Parker's championship experience and gives an overwhelming edge to Phoenix.


COACHES
Gregg Popovich is hands down the best coach in the league. Despite his two rings, he retains a passion for the game and his competitive spirit still burns brightly. Making adjustments — either in-game or between games — is among his specialties.

Mike D'Antoni is on the hot seat as the temperature rises dramatically. At this stage in his career, is he capable of matching Xs and Os with a master?

Nope.


Will he have to?


Since Phoenix plays at one speed only, and has such a short bench, D'Antoni doesn't have much wiggle room to begin with. Still, in critical matchup situations, D'Antoni will most likely be reacting to whatever Popovich does.


Big advantage, San Antonio.


OVERALL
Given the season-long supremacy of the Suns' offense and of San Antonio's defense, here's something to consider: The Spurs' offense is miles better than Phoenix's defense. The deciding factor might come down to which team can generate the most (and then take fullest advantage of) turnovers. Easy scores lead to easy wins.


Also, the Spurs are a much more versatile team. They can run (though certainly not as effectively as Phoenix), and they can also thrive in slow-down situations.


So batten down the hatches, load up on your favorite snacks, and don't miss a single play of what promises to be an incredibly competitive and entertaining series.
 

George O'Brien

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There are some things I'd dispute:

- Amare's outside shooting: He did not shoot much from the elbow against the Mavs, but I'd look for more of it if the Spurs simply pack the paint. Mohamed and Duncan cannot really come out to contest him.

- D'Antoni's coaching: Mike coaches a system and lets Nash make the on court adjustments. Pop is a great coach, but I'm not sure Pop and Parker are better coaching than D'Antoni and Nash.

- I think the Q v Manu matchup could get interesting if Q takes the ball to the basket, especially if Horey is in the lineup.
 
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Joe Mama

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George O'Brien said:
- I think the Q v Manu matchup could get interesting if Q takes the ball to the basket, especially if Horey is in the lineup.

If Q takes him into the post I would agree that it could be interesting. If Q tries to take Manu off the dribble it will not work.

Joe Mama
 

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Popovich is kind of a weak game coach--D'Antoni will outstrip him there.

Pop's strength is team management, i.e. the fact that he got the Spurs to this point without wearing down his star players, and that they have a system that everybody buys into. If the Suns players can match the Spurs' energy and focus, they're going to make Mike D'Antoni look very good in this series.
 
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