Chelsea’s League Cup final curse – can they avoid losing their fourth in a row?

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There are a few factors you might lean on when predicting the outcome of Saturday’s League Cup final between Chelsea and Manchester City.

You might think Chelsea being unbeaten under manager Sonia Bompastor is key.

Or perhaps you think that City’s ‘hail Mary’ interim appointment of former manager Nick Cushing will give them the winning boost.

But there is something that should not be ignored, something that has brought consecutive losses over the past three years for Chelsea: their League Cup final curse.

Chelsea’s relationship with the League Cup has always been strange. It was a trophy that had, for a while, seemed as elusive to former manager Emma Hayes as the Champions League.

During her reign, which started in 2012, they took until 2020 to reach the final, beating Arsenal 2-1. They won the next year too, beating Bristol City 6-0 in front of an empty Vicarage Road due to Covid-19 restrictions.

But since then, they have lost 3-1 to Manchester City, 3-1 to Arsenal, then 1-0 to Arsenal.

Given Chelsea’s dominance in the league and FA Cup during the same period — they won the Women’s Super League (WSL) title every season and the FA Cup final in two of the three — this is not about quality. It’s much deeper.

This is an investigation into a curse … maybe.

Are those pesky Ides of March to blame?​

March is traditionally when the number of games ratchets up and injuries begin to bite.

In 2021-22, Chelsea beat Leicester City 7-0 in the FA Cup in their match immediately before the final, then immediately after the final, they beat West Ham 4-1 in the league. They then won every single match for the rest of the season. So, form wasn’t a problem.

However, midfielder Fran Kirby missed the final due to illness, the club announced that Canada international Jessie Fleming missed it “due to Covid-19”, and despite starting the Leicester win, forward Lauren James was on the bench.

In 2022-23, they won their game before the final again, then went on a four-game winning run afterwards until they lost to City away in the league, a game that was basically sacrificed to try and progress in the Champions League.

In the match itself, Chelsea went in the lead thanks to goalscorer Sam Kerr. Arsenal fought back and dominated, with Hayes’ side having little to blame but their own performance.

“Everything has to be top class and today it was not at Chelsea standard,” Hayes said afterwards.

The only season when Chelsea looked genuinely rocky in terms of form around the League Cup final was 2023-24. They drew the second leg of their UWCL quarter-final four days before (albeit with a three-goal advantage from the first leg) and lost the FA Cup semi-final in their next match.

In the League Cup final that season, they were missing Kerr and defender Millie Bright, both long-term absentees, and made several changes from their UWCL match earlier in the week. The result: another loss to Arsenal and a falling out between Hayes and Arsenal’s then-manager Jonas Eidevall.

Injuries are going to be an issue for Chelsea this year with both of their expensive January signings, Keira Walsh and Naomi Girma, unavailable having picked up injuries in the 2-2 draw with Brighton a fortnight ago. This season’s top scorer, **** Reiten, is also out of the game.

Is it due to Chelsea’s success in other competitions?​

Part of the reason Chelsea’s record in the competition is so lopsided is how successful they have been in each of those seasons.

In every season they have lost the League Cup, they have been in more competitions than their opponent has by the time the final rolled around.

In 2021-22, City only had the FA Cup and League Cup left to play for, whilst Chelsea were pushing for the league, FA Cup and League Cup. In 2022-23, Arsenal were still in the Champions League but Chelsea were fighting on all four fronts. The same applied last year when the League Cup was the only competition Arsenal had a chance of winning.

Hayes’ reaction to the result last season hardly gave off the impression she did not care about winning the final, but it is not unreasonable to think that Chelsea’s opponents are often more incentivised when it comes to the final itself.

This year is the same to an extent. Although City are in the Champions League (they face Chelsea in the quarter-finals), they are 12 points behind the London side in the league and have not won a trophy since that League Cup in 2022. Meanwhile, Chelsea have won five competitions since then.

Can Bompastor lift the curse?​

Chelsea head into Saturday’s match knowing that they can secure the first piece of silverware under Bompastor.

Speaking to the media ahead of her first League Cup final with Chelsea, she declined to comment on the club’s struggles in the competition.

Instead, she talked about what has happened since.

“We made a lot of changes last summer. We had this transition with me coming in as a new manager, but we also changed some of the staff and some players in the squad,” she said. “So I just want to focus on the future, but also how we can win on Saturday. That’s the main thing to me.”

There are some players at Chelsea who have been at the club for all three losing finals. Two who are very likely to feature on Saturday participated in all three: full-back Niamh Charles started all three, whilst James came off the bench in 2022 and started in 2023 and 2024.

“I’m lucky enough to have a lot of players in my squad who have a lot of experience,” said Bompastor. “They know from their experience how to prepare for these games. The main thing coming from me is to make sure the game plan is ready. So everything is clear in terms of tactics.

“And in terms of the mental part, confidence is a big one. I just make sure my players can find the right balance between being confident and also humble going into this game. And making sure we work hard to get things right.”

Will that curse be lifted? We will find out on Saturday.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Chelsea, UK Women's Football

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