Childress Puzzle

[George O'Brien]

Draft City had a piece that is pretty negitive on Childress:

Smokescreen around Childress?


It’s going to be very interesting to see where Josh Childress ends up being picked on draft night. He is the type of player that looks great in workouts, especially when you talk to him off the court, but he’s quietly starting to develop a “tweener” label amongst people who have followed him closely lately. He was one of the few top prospects that lost an inch in measurements, not to mention 10 pounds off what he was listed at in college. At 6-7 and 196 pounds there is little doubt that he will have to play shooting guard in the NBA, as he has the type of body that will always remain lanky, evidenced by the fact he underwent negligible physical improvement after 3 seasons of NCAA level weight training. The problem is that he doesn’t seem to have the quickness to guard NBA shooting guards. His lane agility numbers put him dead last amongst the guards and small forwards tested, and not by a small margin either (a whole half a second slower then the supposedly unathletic Luol Deng). His shooting looks good in workouts, but there are some major concerns around his form, his right elbow flies way out to the right when he is shooting, he flings the ball at the basket more then he shoots it.

I definitely think he is going to be a nice all-around player in the league, a good role player for sure, but it’s really hard to understand why he is still ranked by many as the #1 SG in the draft despite his obvious flaws. I’m still wondering what is the one thing he does that really separates him from other players at his position. The fact that he keeps working out against PG’s like Ben Gordon and 2nd round players at his own position (yesterday against Desmon Farmer against the Clippers, the day before in Phoenix against Trevor Ariza, David Hawkins in Philly, etc.) makes you wonder what exactly is going on here.

I think Josh summed up his own draft stock the best in Phoenix: “You kind of have to take that with a grain of salt,” he said. “I am more interested in what the GMs, the owners and the head coaches are telling me, and my representative, as opposed to what these mock drafts say. They don’t know, just like I don’t know. We’ll all find out June 24.”

We’ll also have to wait and find out if he can live up to where he ends up being drafted.

draftcity

Is it a smokescreen? He is the guy I least like of the first 7 players. If his defensive footwork is that weak, then I would not be shocked if Jackson make a big charge into the top ten and the expense of Childress.

 

[sly fly]

Draft City had a piece that is pretty negitive on Childress:



draftcity

Is it a smokescreen? He is the guy I least like of the first 7 players. If his defensive footwork is that weak, then I would not be shocked if Jackson make a big charge into the top ten and the expense of Childress.

I don't understand your reasoning, George?

Childress was Player of the Year in the Pac-10. LED his team to 30 straight wins. Showed incredible ability to hit big-time shots.

And, your going to rely on some dorky web site to solidify your decision?

Question: How many times did you watch Childress play this last year?

Childress is a coaches dream. And, I've got news for you... He may be better than Shawn Marion. He can certainly shoot better right now.

This kid is going to surprise a lot of people.

 

[hcsilla]

I He may be better than Shawn Marion. He can certainly shoot better right now.

Come on.

 

[sly fly]

Come on.

Age-wise. Childress can do a lot of things Shawn was unable to do at his age.

Not slamming Marion. Just impressed with Childress's game.

 

[George O'Brien]

If the Suns end up with Childress, I certainly hope I'm wrong about him. Otherwise, I hope I'm right.

BTW, this is hardly the first commentary that made these points. He made comments to the effect that he feels he has a lot to prove in these workouts as a result of people getting a poor opinion of his game from watching him at Stanford (has has to prove he is good in open court, can hit long jumpers, play tough defense, etc.)

None the less, he is getting a lot of positive buzz in top six cities, so he must be doing something right.

 

[PhxGametime]

Childress was better 3PT%, Passing, and ball-handler - Marion was better athlete, defender, scorer, rebounder, shot-blocker, steals, FG%.

Looking at stats - Childress could be a good prospect but he didn't impress me as much watching games. Childress wouldn't be a bad selection though at SG.


Updated list:

Emeka Okafor
Dwight Howard
Andre Iguodala
Ben Gordon
Josh Smith
Devin Harris
Kirk Synder /\
Josh Childress
Shaun Livingston /\
Andris Biedrins
Luol Deng \/
Luke Jackson /\
Pavel Podkolzine
JR Smith
Kris Humphries
Jameer Nelson

Top-16 (I believe that was rumored # to trade down to) - it seems like I'm leaving a top prospect off list but this is MY order for now and with a trade down, there would be a decent prospect left. This is not Mock Draft - just my preference...

 

[George O'Brien]

Childress was better 3PT%, Passing, and ball-handler - Marion was better athlete, defender, scorer, rebounder, shot-blocker, steals, FG%.

Looking at stats - Childress could be a good prospect but he didn't impress me as much watching games. Childress wouldn't be a bad selection though at SG.


Updated list:

Emeka Okafor
Dwight Howard
Andre Iguodala
Ben Gordon
Josh Smith
Devin Harris
Kirk Synder /\
Josh Childress
Shaun Livingston /\
Andris Biedrins
Luol Deng \/
Luke Jackson /\
Pavel Podkolzine
JR Smith
Kris Humphries
Jameer Nelson

Top-16 (I believe that was rumored # to trade down to) - it seems like I'm leaving a top prospect off list but this is MY order for now and with a trade down, there would be a decent prospect left. This is not Mock Draft - just my preference...

Deng may be overrated, but I can't see him falling that far. Livingston is likely to go higher than you have listed although I'm not sure he would be a fit on the Suns.

 

[Chaplin]

Being on the West Coast, I can safely say that IMO, Josh Childress is a fine player and might make a pretty good pro, but there is NO WAY that he will become the type of player Shawn Marion is. No way in hell.

This anti-Shawn Marion crap is getting WAAAAAY out of hand on this board. I haven't seen it this bad on any other board, INCLUDING ESPN.

 

[PhxGametime]

That was MY Top-16 choices for Suns, not the league or where players will fall. The arrows were players moving up or down on MY Draft Board for Suns.

 

[Dylan]

Being on the West Coast, I can safely say that IMO, Josh Childress is a fine player and might make a pretty good pro, but there is NO WAY that he will become the type of player Shawn Marion is. No way in hell.

This anti-Shawn Marion crap is getting WAAAAAY out of hand on this board. I haven't seen it this bad on any other board, INCLUDING ESPN.

I agree completely. It boggles my mind. He's not perfect, but a damn fine ballplayer. As far as his salary is concerned, it is high, but we could sure spend it in a lot of worse ways.

I would bet other cities teams and fans have a higher opinion of him and would love to have him, then he sometimes gets here.

 

[Joe Mama]

I like Josh Childress as a safe yet unspectacular draft pick, but I'll be surprised if he's ever as good as Shawn Marion. Frankly I think it's a little bit difficult to compare the two because even though Shawn Marion was originally projected as an NBA shooting guard, he is not. Josh Childress will NBA shooting guard in the NBA. I don't think he has the physical tools like Shawn Marion to play small forward in the NBA regularly despite his size. I think Shawn Marion is a bit small to play small forward in the NBA today. Josh Childress is definitely too small.

That said, Josh Childress does have the ballhandling and shooting skills to play shooting guard in the NBA.

I could see Childress being a solid contributor on a good team. I don't think he's ever won to be an NBA star though. I would be surprised if he's not still on the board at #7. Unfortunately that probably means that the guys I like as possible choices will be off it.

Joe Mama

 

[sly fly]

Being on the West Coast, I can safely say that IMO, Josh Childress is a fine player and might make a pretty good pro, but there is NO WAY that he will become the type of player Shawn Marion is. No way in hell.

This anti-Shawn Marion crap is getting WAAAAAY out of hand on this board. I haven't seen it this bad on any other board, INCLUDING ESPN.

Don't make me pull up some of the crap you said about Marion during one of his horrid shooting nights last year. The guy stunk for half the year, and turned it on when it counted least. He has the uncanny ability to fill up a stat book, but will leave you in total frustration.

In my mind, Marion took a step back last year. I expected a lot more from him. Perhaps he was tired from all the extracurricular ball, but it sure didn't help his 'real' team.

 

[F-Dog]

Being on the West Coast, I can safely say that IMO, Josh Childress is a fine player and might make a pretty good pro, but there is NO WAY that he will become the type of player Shawn Marion is. No way in hell.

This anti-Shawn Marion crap is getting WAAAAAY out of hand on this board. I haven't seen it this bad on any other board, INCLUDING ESPN.

Agreed!


If Caron Butler can play SF, Childress can play SF. Childress doesn't play like a 200-pounder--I can't remember a single instance when I was watching Stanford and said to myself, "Boy, that Josh Childress is kind of weak, isn't he?", but I can think of at least a few times that Childress beat up players who were thicker than him and took their rebounds away from them.

Childress is going to be a nice player in the NBA, and I think he'll surprise people who write him off because of his poor measurables. That said, he's not going to be nearly as good as Shawn Marion.

 

[slinslin]

I don't want Childress. He is a great system player for a team like Utah. He would not be good in a freelancing system like ours. At least last season it was tough to figure out any real consistent game plan or plays being called.

 

[George O'Brien]

Don't make me pull up some of the crap you said about Marion during one of his horrid shooting nights last year. The guy stunk for half the year, and turned it on when it counted least. He has the uncanny ability to fill up a stat book, but will leave you in total frustration.

In my mind, Marion took a step back last year. I expected a lot more from him. Perhaps he was tired from all the extracurricular ball, but it sure didn't help his 'real' team.

This has been the subject of debate the entire season. Was this past season a sign that Marion can no longer play at the level he did in 2002-03, or was it a one season (or half season) slump that will be reversed?

From what I can tell, the Suns and the US Olympic committee think it is the latter. But if it was just a slump, then what happened? I have some theories, but hardly any proof that it was just a slump.

1. BAD OFF SEASON PREPARATION - Two years ago Marion spent the summer playing with the national team, but last summer he spent most of his time weight lifting. He had bulked up to 245 and it seemed to completely throw off his shooting stroke, which is a weird one anyway. As the season when on he lost the extra bulk and his shot began to return.

2. MARBURY BECAME TOO SELFISH - Marbury has always been a shoot first point guard, but he became more obsessed with his numbers when playing with the Suns. He dribbled around a lot and then would throw the ball to Shawn or JJ with a few seconds to go. Neither are great catch and shoot type players and need to be able to have the option of driving the basket. JJ improved instantly when Marbury was traded and Shawn began to improve once JJ started becoming more of a passer.

3. BAD OFFENSIVE STRUCTURE UNDER FJ - Some of the problems with the offense under FJ were due to Marbury, but the overall system was flawed. In many ways it was too dependent on forcing turnovers and lacked the kind of off the ball movement and passing that a good offense needs. The team improved this some later in the season (they still have a long way to go).

4. POOR DEFENSIVE STRUCTURE - Marion tended to look bad as a defender because the Suns trap so much, thus forcing him to play and area rather than be up on his opponent. Before JJ emerged as the team's top defender, Shawn was given a different assignment and was more effective playing man defense. Shawn's defense improved when Dice was put in at center because they did not have to trap so much.


I don't see Shawn becoming a "gimme the ball" superstar, but I think he will have much better year this coming season than last season.

 

[Joe Mama]

I actually think the reason for Shawn Marion's problems last season is much easier than that. I think it all came down to his shot. Perhaps it was the weightlifting (there is no way he was 245 pounds by the way). Perhaps it was taking a summer off for the first time in several years. Before last season one of his greatest strengths was an ugly, but very reliable jump shot. Last season he struggled with his shot, and it didn't take long before he had lost confidence in it.

Even with the jump shot I still don't believe Shawn Marion is a maximum contract player. However he would be much closer to it, so the contract wouldn't look nearly as bad. Some people might think I'm crazy, but if he can get back that jump shot and work on his defense I would probably rather have him and the #7 draft pick than Tracy McGrady. I really like Shawn Marion as a complementary player. He just needs to get that jump shot back.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I actually think the reason for Shawn Marion's problems last season is much easier than that. I think it all came down to his shot. Perhaps it was the weightlifting (there is no way he was 245 pounds by the way). Perhaps it was taking a summer off for the first time in several years. Before last season one of his greatest strengths was an ugly, but very reliable jump shot. Last season he struggled with his shot, and it didn't take long before he had lost confidence in it.

Even with the jump shot I still don't believe Shawn Marion is a maximum contract player. However he would be much closer to it, so the contract wouldn't look nearly as bad. Some people might think I'm crazy, but if he can get back that jump shot and work on his defense I would probably rather have him and the #7 draft pick than Tracy McGrady. I really like Shawn Marion as a complementary player. He just needs to get that jump shot back.

Joe Mama

Shawn certainly improved the last couple of months of the season. I remember in January his three point shooting was in the 27% range and he finished the season at 34%.

BTW, I'm not sure he lost confidence in his jump shot, but I certainly did.