Climate Change: The history and what it all means.

RugbyMuffin

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Below is a VERY, VERY, VERY small except from a talk with a man named Randall Carlson. There is more to be found on the internet, if it interests you.

Before labeling him a climate change denier, or that he thinks humans are not effecting the climate, keep in mind he believes in climate change and that humans do effect it.

I have been a long time climate change advocate, who constantly has stated that while I cannot say whether humans are the cause or not, that there is no denying that our climate is changing. Regardless the reasons for the change, would it not be prudent as humans to research what is going on ?

Well, looks like people agree, and those people are scientists. The information, studies and data that have been found, has been after the late 1990's so I was out of school, busy specializing in my engineering studies, completely ignorant of what had been going on.

Some genius came up with the idea that you could take core samples of the glaciers that have been on this planet for tens of thousands of years, and they can tell the story of the climate of the planet over a long, long period of time.

Well, the climate does change, and IT REALLY changes. I was at first very, VERY, VERY skeptical of some guy talking about this on a Joe Rogan podcast, but this all checks out. I spent the time to research since, again I have been a long time advocate of climate change, and this holds my interest.

Again, no one is saying that humans do not have an effect on the climate, just how much in comparison to what the world will do naturally is in question.

Also, what is not in question is the horrible treatment of our planet when it comes to pollution, and never ending disrespect to the planet that we live on.

Yet, I found it very interesting to educate myself on the history of the planet, and how things align with the climate and how humans have had to endure it throughout time is quite interesting.

In the end, climate change is an issue, but with better understanding of our planet's past, where we put our efforts to adapt and endure will be more focus, more informed, and less about political agenda.

Just thought this interesting and just to throw this out there. If you have great interest in this type of thing, listen to the full podcast, it was, at least for me, very interesting, and held my attention throughout.

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PS - If you like this, take a minute to listen to him speak about impacts that the earth has endured throughout the years.
 

elindholm

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Well, the climate does change, and IT REALLY changes. I was at first very, VERY, VERY skeptical of some guy talking about this on a Joe Rogan podcast, but this all checks out. I spent the time to research since, again I have been a long time advocate of climate change, and this holds my interest.

Again, no one is saying that humans do not have an effect on the climate, just how much in comparison to what the world will do naturally is in question.

This has been covered a million times. Yes, the climate changed in the past, and the temperature swings were large, larger than what we are seeing now. It's the rate of change that is unprecedented. A change that, in previous eons, unfolded over tens of thousands of years is what we are now seeing in half of a century.

If you think of a bank account, it's normal for the balance to go up and down. The fluctuations may be even somewhat out of your control, like when certain unforeseeable expenses come due or a surprise work bonus. But if all of a sudden you noticed that your average balance was going down $100 a day, and that just happened to coincide with a major gambling habit you'd recently picked up, wouldn't you think there was a connection?
 

elindholm

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Also, per Wikipedia, Randall Carlson has never been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. He's not a scientist. I can't even determine whether he has a Ph.D., which isn't something scientists normally hide about themselves, which probably means that he doesn't. He's a new-age crackpot who has no idea what he's talking about.
 
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RugbyMuffin

RugbyMuffin

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This has been covered a million times. Yes, the climate changed in the past, and the temperature swings were large, larger than what we are seeing now. It's the rate of change that is unprecedented. A change that, in previous eons, unfolded over tens of thousands of years is what we are now seeing in half of a century.

If you think of a bank account, it's normal for the balance to go up and down. The fluctuations may be even somewhat out of your control, like when certain unforeseeable expenses come due or a surprise work bonus. But if all of a sudden you noticed that your average balance was going down $100 a day, and that just happened to coincide with a major gambling habit you'd recently picked up, wouldn't you think there was a connection?

Again, not denying in any way shape or form that climate change is not happening, not denying in anyway shape or form humans are not having an effect, and not denying in any way shape or form that we as a species need a plan to adapt/fix the situation.

But, it would make some sense to look into the history of climate change and its effects on the human race throughout time to get an idea what we are up against. That is really the only point I am saying, regardless if the "crack pot" as you say brings up the topic.

Cause it would suck if we "solved" the carbon footprint issue, and find out it did nothing to slow the rate, the change, and had no effect what so ever. Or if that we now stopped the warming of the planet to only find out it may be cooling, which as history has dictated in the past as just as bad. Again, my point is more that history should be looked at with more of a swipe of the hand.

One thing to note, pretty sure that the rate of change of the climate is not the fastest it is been throughout history, but I do not really care if that is right or wrong, any past changes with a high rate has had a profound effect on the planet and the life on it, so the current rate is no doubt a concern to be taken seriously. Also, I am 100% sure that the statement " climate changes took tens of thousands of years" has been shown by proven wrong by PHD's scientists working with glacial core drilling. So while it may have been covered a million times, maybe its time for a million and one.

(I won't even go into the whole catastrophe changes because that is another debate topic all together and we not talking about catastrophe, but how life on this planet can effect the climate, whether by unnatural pollution, or natural imbalance).

Unless we are 100% confident that we know all about this as a people, and that there is no reason to research the topic any further, and throw out any need for new studies on the situation. If the scientist that we both hold in respect do not agree, then that in itself worth consideration.

As for gambling, good example. All I am saying is you see $100 leaving your account, it in fact coincides with your new gambling habit....only find out you are are only losing about $25 a day from your habit.....where is the other $75 coming from ? In the end, the common goal is to figure out how to stop your money loss, yes, stop gambling, but you then still have a $75 loss happening that you need to figure out. So, please keep in mind, I am in FULL support that we have to lessen our carbon footprint, lessen pollution, and respect our planet's balance. Is it the whole story is all ?

Again, just found it interesting, and I am a cynical as hell skeptical man who is an engineering by trade. Lot of information that are coming outside of Mr. Carlson, which if without a PHD he becomes a non-factor in discussing this type of thing, that is fine. There is plenty of these findings coming from proven scientific research that brings up the same points.

I would hate to see the future of our species being dictated by ideology and human arrogance than facts and research is all, and some of those facts that have come about in the last 10 to 20 years are challenging what was thought to be fact before that time.


Also, per Wikipedia, Randall Carlson has never been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. He's not a scientist. I can't even determine whether he has a Ph.D., which isn't something scientists normally hide about themselves, which probably means that he doesn't. He's a new-age crackpot who has no idea what he's talking about.

Fair enough.

My argument against would be, the man has 30+ years of research on the topic, and he constantly references to scientists with Ph.D's and all the credentials you could want, that agree with him on these things. That may imply he knows what he is talking about, or you may very well be right and he is a crack pot. It is a debate that has been going on for a long time, so it is all debatable.

But, I 100% respect your view of it.

There are times I hear these guys thoughts and I "get off the train" so to speak, it is interesting topics for thought, and debate, at least for me.

With all sincerity, appreciate the counter argument. I will try to stop by if you want to continue, because as I said, this is all new vs. old, and very debatable. Good to keep both side in your mind.

Still damn interesting, or a least if wrong, a good story
 

elindholm

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But, it would make some sense to look into the history of climate change and its effects on the human race throughout time to get an idea what we are up against.

I agree, especially since by this point the effects are largely irreversible.

One big issue is that there are many, many more people now than there were ten thousand years ago, and they are already spread out over most of the globe. So as some areas become uninhabitable, it's a lot more difficult to tell people to just pick up and move. You can see that with U.S. cities that keep getting wiped out by weather, like New Orleans. Residents know that it's only a matter of time until the next disaster, but on the other hand, what are they going to do?

Again, my point is more that history should be looked at with more of a swipe of the hand.

It has been. Getting archival climate records from glacial cores might be a new idea to the "theorists" you are now encountering, but it's standard knowledge in the scientific community. It's not like Carlson has discovered some secret perspective that those ******* scientists haven't thought of.

One thing to note, pretty sure that the rate of change of the climate is not the fastest it is been throughout history, but I do not really care if that is right or wrong

But you should care. That's why so many people are in alarm. If the planet warms by 1* C over 1000 years, there is time to react and plan. If it happens in 50 years, with another couple of degrees on the horizon for the next 50 years, it's an emergency.

Also, I am 100% sure that the statement " climate changes took tens of thousands of years" has been shown by proven wrong by PHD's scientists working with glacial core drilling.

You are correct; I was misremembering and added a zero.

Prior to the last century, the earth's most dramatic warming rates were around 1* C over 1000 years, not 10,000. However, that is still much slower than the 1* C we've gone up over the past 50. The difference in warming rates is a factor of 20.

The best graph I've found from this is, admittedly, from a web comic, but the author gives his literature sources in the right margin, and the data check out with what I've seen (in a less user-friendly presentation) in other places:

https://xkcd.com/1732/

It's pretty easy to see that the warming we're experiencing now is of a completely different category from anything else we've been able to measure.

If the scientist that we both hold in respect do not agree, then that in itself worth consideration.

Virtually all reputable scientists are in agreement on this, and the few hold-outs will convert as the data become even more compelling.

There is plenty of these findings coming from proven scientific research that brings up the same points.

No there aren't. The "proven scientific research" is that humanity has never experienced anything like this.

My argument against would be, the man has 30+ years of research on the topic

But that's not what "research" is. Research isn't coming up with a point of view and then cherry-picking isolated pseudo-facts out of context in order to support it. That's just like the anti-vaxxers who say "Do your own research" and then everything they cite can be traced back to the same fraudulent (and now fully debunked) 1998 Lancet paper.
 
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RugbyMuffin

RugbyMuffin

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It has been. Getting archival climate records from glacial cores might be a new idea to the "theorists" you are now encountering, but it's standard knowledge in the scientific community. It's not like Carlson has discovered some secret perspective that those ******* scientists haven't thought of.

A new idea would be a case of semantics in our argument, I would say anything in the last 10 years is new findings, which is where most of these findings are from.

FYI, Carlson is not claiming to have found any new perspective, just saying what he has found, and again, we can throw him out of the talk need be.

As for ******* scientist, I could care less what any scientist with a political agenda has to say on anything.


But you should care. That's why so many people are in alarm. If the planet warms by 1* C over 1000 years, there is time to react and plan. If it happens in 50 years, with another couple of degrees on the horizon for the next 50 years, it's an emergency.

The whole of what I wrote.

"One thing to note, pretty sure that the rate of change of the climate is not the fastest it is been throughout history, but I do not really care if that is right or wrong, any past changes with a high rate has had a profound effect on the planet and the life on it, so the current rate is no doubt a concern to be taken seriously."

That would be the case today. It should be alarming.

I can find data that says humanity has experience this kind of erratic climate change in the past, and worse than this. Unless you believe that humans in the past, purposely built temples and structures under water for the shear fun of it. Written by scientists with all kinds of degrees and what not, but at some point it is what you believe and who you believe.

Another point of agreement is climate changes lead to horrific situations where the population was greatly effected. Not trying to say that climate change is not a problem, it is. Not trying to say climate change is not a problem right now, it is. What I find concerning goes back to your "*******" comment, where ideology comes into play. The liberals saying you need to do this and that, and conservatives saying you need to do that or this, and they care more about votes, power, and being right, then getting the facts.

One thing I should clarify, I am in 100% agreement that a vast, vast, vast majority of scientist agree, there is climate change that has to be addressed. When it comes to why, that is where the debate lies. Even then, it is not like anyone is saying not to lessen our carbon footprint. But, there is no doubt there has been fluctuations in the past, and to think it will not happen again, is a bout of hubris, in my humble opinion. I would hope there is some debate on these topics while also an agreement of the current problem.

Remember it was 100% certain Pluto was a planet, and reputable scientists claimed this fact. Technology then brought about the realization of the Kuiper belt, and then, it almost a similar case, it was not that Pluto was not revolving around the sun, but that it was a largest of "thousands?" (maybe more) of frozen bodies revolving around the earth. You can call it a planet, but then there is thousands of other planets. You can call it a frozen body, but it still revolves around the sun. Neither side is really wrong, just that new technology gives more insight on what is going on.


I was looking for this quote before, Dr. Richard Alley (who would happily call Mr. Carlson a nutjob, btw) made a GREAT quote about it:

"Whether temperatures have been warmer or colder in the past is largely irrelevant to the impacts of the ongoing warming. If you don’t care about humans and the other species here, global warming may not be all that important; nature has caused warmer and colder times in the past, and life survived. But, those warmer and colder times did not come when there were almost seven billion people living as we do. The best science says that if our warming becomes large, its influences on us will be primarily negative, and the temperature of the Holocene or the Cretaceous has no bearing on that. Furthermore, the existence of warmer and colder times in the past does not remove our fingerprints from the current warming, any more than the existence of natural fires would remove an arsonist’s fingerprints from a can of flammable liquid. If anything, nature has been pushing to cool the climate over the last few decades, but warming has occurred."

What I have in bold, I would comment on to say that I am not 100% convinced there was never a time where humans inhabited this planet at great numbers, I think that cannot be proven one way or the other. But, I do agree, that when he says "as we do", he is 100% right regardless of the past tells us about climate change. It won't apply to the here and now.

We are not a society of survival, we are specialists and our society is very fragile on how it is setup. There is a lot of room on this planet for people, no doubt, but not as we currently live as a society or to be support by it. The middle of Montana is not the best place for a person to have a job, and be part of the modern society, so to speak. As people get flooded out, and migrate the logistic of what to do becomes impossible, not to mention the loss of infrastructure, etc. etc. Anyway its cut, it is a bad situation, with real implications.

Again, not saying the current situation is not an issue. Yet, you look at some of the testing, and information found over the last few years, that align with data from extinctions, population losses and gains, etc., etc. there has been climate change caused by various situations. The better the technology the farther we will be able to look into the past, and the more clarity we will have from what we already know. So, while Dr. Alley is right, my problem with him is he feels the need to close a book that has not been fully written. In my humble opinion, that is hubris in the way of progress.

In the end, while interesting on why and how, all climate changes (ones of relative fast warming and cooling) end up being situations where people suffer, and life has to "endure" the process. See the studies between mid-evil times in Europe and the climate changes during those times. I should state those changes were less impactful then what we are up again today, but none the less where devastating to those societies

The more we know the more we will be able to adapt where possible.



The rest of what you have to say, and to be fair what I would have to say, is a matter of what is reputable, who is not. And based on what is considered reputable then effects what would be considered proven research (see the Pluto example)

You can find reason they don't. I can find a guy I find reputable with degrees and doctorates, and you can do the same. All calling each other nut jobs and what not.

Again, all I care about is getting information on what is going on, and continuing to gather all information from all areas, where ever possible, and keep ideology and hubris out of the equation.


What is really cool about this discussion, thanks again, very fun and informative, is we obviously see this from different angles, but in the end, as it stands right now, the current situation has been proven to be dangerous, and needs to be addressed.

If you have more I will try to get back to it, and debate some more if I have anymore to debate about since we are in agreement on the current situation, just on some other details but you have given me some new places to go look into more depth.
 
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elindholm

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I'm not going to debate most of your points, because they are too slippery to pin down. But the Pluto issue has to be addressed, and I need to explain why.

I am not saying that you are a conspiracy theorist, but we all need to learn how to recognize certain of their argumentative strategies. And one of them, which rears its head with persistent regularity, is the appeal to a "similar" situation that is supposed to call into question whether we can trust what "they" are saying, and whether "they" really know what they think they know.

It may not have been your intent, but that's exactly what you've done with Pluto. You're saying "Hey, they got Pluto wrong, so maybe they got this wrong too." So we need to break that down.

Pluto was discovered in 1930. At that time, we lacked the technology to measure its mass with precision. By 1978, we had an estimate of ballpark 1/500 of the earth's mass. Forty years later, that's more or less where we are now.

The 2006 declassification of Pluto as a planet had little to do with our increasing understanding of the Kuiper belt, in which other objects were being positively identified by 1992. As soon as Pluto was discovered, astronomers suspected that there were other bodies like it. We knew about other bodies that orbit the sun, like asteroids and comets, so no one supposed that Pluto closed any sort of chapter on what makes up the solar system. The measurements that led to the discovery of Pluto also established that there are no other large planetary objects in the solar system, which is true -- but Pluto was known to be small from the beginning.

Pluto's declassification resulted from a re-definition of the word "planet," not any new information about Pluto or other Kuiper Belt objects. (That's a slight oversimplification: the discovery of Eris, more massive than Pluto although considerably more remote, helped to bring Pluto's status down a notch.) It's true that our knowledge of Pluto has improved as technology has improved, but scientists did not get its fundamental essence wrong.

The bottom line is that it is both incorrect and dangerous to raise doubts about the data behind global warming by claiming that Pluto represents some sort of scientific blunder.
 

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