GimmedaBall
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I’m using the pre-draft ratings published by NFL.com on the QB in both the 2017 and 2018 class. I’m not privy to how they devised their grading system—it could be a round-table of football experts or it could be a 400-lb guy sitting on his bed in his Mother’s basement. I'm just using their scale as an anchor point and not to start a debate on the quality of their grading system. Their rating scale:
Grade Title
9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player
8.00-9.00 Perennial All-Pro
7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro
7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl to All-Pro Ability
6.50-6.99 Good NFL Starter with Pro Bowl Potential
6.00-6.49 Chance to become good NFL starter
5.70-5.99 Could become early NFL starter
5.30-5.69 Backup or eventual starter
5.15-5.29 Developmental prospect or special teams potential
5.01-5.14 Back end of the roster
5.00 50/50 Chance of making the roster
The NFL.com rating system looks to have predictive value in how a QB later performs at the NFL level. (Somewhere somebody has done the correlation coefficients) There are some ‘outliers’—guys who play above their rating and make the team/scouts/GM look like geniuses—but for the most part guys rated the highest get drafted at the top of the 1st and also have the more productive careers. For every RWilson, you got a dozen other 4th round picks who either washed out or are carrying clipboards along the sidelines.
Once you get past the #1 and #2 rated QB, you are in dangerous territory with your pick and projecting success. Here’s the NFL. Com History of the draft page with just the QB selected:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position
You can delve back into the history of each guy by (1) Selecting the highlighted players name—this will take you to the Player Profile Page, (2) Once in the player profile page, look right below the picture and basic info box for ‘Combine’ If you see ‘Combine’ you can read his Combine results as well as the ‘Strengths’ and ‘Weakness’ eval at the time of the Combine and prior to the draft. (Note: Some older QB do not have their Combine evaluations in the database.)
A quick scan of the list down through the draft years illustrates just how difficult it is to make an accurate selection—there are plenty of names on the list who at one time were high on some fan’s wish list who are no longer even on a team. Also, there are plenty of guys who went high who are just not living up to the draft capital that was invested in taking them.
We are in the speculation phase now with every fan and analyst coming up with their take on the player profiles prior to the draft. One key word to watch for is the number of times the words ‘IF’ appears in a player’s evaluation. That word indicates the degree a team in hedging their bet to take the guy . . . “IF you give him a good OL . . . IF the coaches can correct his mechanics . . . IF you can teach him to play under center . . . IF you can work on his accuracy . . . IF he hits the gym and bulks up . . . IF he can mature and grow up . . . IF he works with our All-pro WR, RB, etc.” IF you are going to draft a guy, you want to see as few IFS as possible attached to his evaluation. (IF I weren’t so ugly, I might be considered handsome.)
A key point to remember: This particular draft class is not the end of the supply chain of players coming out of college. Cards do no need to force the issue and make a trade or selection this year. I know we don’t have a QB on the roster—but we can find a vet via FA or trade and not make the leap based on projections and a whole lot of IFS. You make that big move only when the guy you are bartering for is far-and-away highly rated and a ‘can’t miss’—and even that evaluation is a major gamble.
Cards didn’t make a move on a QB for the past several years under SK (with Logan Thomas the exception) SK’s explanation is that the player they took was rated above the QB still on the board + the draft capital it would have taken to move up. I’ve been critical of that tactic but after looking at the draft success with QBs, why take a guy that you evaluate is not going to make your roster? A drafted QB should at the very least be someone who will compete for the backup spot. That notion may be right for even this draft class that has a lot of teams eager to claim a QB. To check if this 2018 class is really QB-rich, I combined the draft ratings for both the 2017 class and the 2018 class. (I am ASSUMING the draft ratings have legitimate value to rank order these QBs)
DARNOLD, SAM* 6'3" 220 USC 7.1
Trubisky, M 6'2" 222 North Car Pick 2, Round 1 (2) Bears 6.3
ROSEN, JOSH* 6'4" 226 UCLA 6.1
MAYFIELD, B 6'1" 215 Oklahoma 6.0
JACKSON, LAMAR 6'3" 200 Louisville 6.0
ALLEN, JOSH 6'5" 233 Wyoming 5.9
Watson, D 6'2" 221 Clemson Pick 12, Round 1 (12) Texans 5.9
Mahomes, P 6'2" 225 Texas Tech Pick 10, Round 1 (10) Chiefs 5.8
Kizer, D 6'4" 233 Notre Dame Pick 20, Round 2 (52) Brwns 5.7
Peterman, N 6'2" 226 Pittsburgh Pick 28, Round 5 (171) Bills 5.7
RUDOLPHM 6'5" 235 Oklahoma St. 5.6
FALK, LUKE 6'4" 225 Washington St. 5.6
WHITE, M 6'4" 225 Western Kentucky 5.6
Kaaya, B 6'4" 214 Miami Pick 32, Round 6 (215) Lions 5.5
Webb, Davis 6'5" 229 California Pick 23, Round 3 (87) Giants 5.4
Kelly, Chad 6'2" 224 Mississippi Pick 35, Round 7 (253) Bronc 5.4
Dobbs, J 6'3" 216 Tennessee Pick 29, Round 4 (135) Steel 5.3
LAULETTA, KYLE 6'3" 215 Richmond 5.1
FERGUSON, RILEY 6'4" 210 Memphis 5.1
BENKERT, KURT 6'4" 215 Virginia 5.1
Beathard, C.J. QB 6'2" 219 Iowa Pick 40, Round 3 (104) 49ers 5.0
Some Quick Takes on the Combined Ratings.
Darnold has the edge over the #1 rated QB Trub from last year. Do the Cards see him as that “Pro Bowl to All Pro ability” with his 7.1 rating compared to Trub “Chance to become good NFL starter” with his 6.3 rating so much so to trade multiple draft picks to move all the way to the #1 spot?
Cards did not trade up for Trubinsky in 2017 who had a higher rating than every other QB in this class except for Darnold—that includes a lot of the QB that the fan base is looking for us to trade up for in this 2018 draft.
Cards sat pat at their spot while both KC (Mahomes) and Texas (Watson) traded and leapfrogged in front and took a QB. Cards were not willing to jump up for either Mahomes and Watson. Are the Cards now willing to jump up for Allen who has the same rating as Watson when they failed to move UP A SINGLE SLOT on Watson? That one spot up move would have been cheap in comparison to moving up to the top of this draft.
The highest-rated QB in this class is Darnold (who tops the Trub rating for last year). Moving from #15 to #1 for Darnold (or a lower rated QB) will be a major cost if the Browns are looking to hoard future draft picks with our team name on them. Browns will hold us up like Jesse James at the nearest rural bank in Missouri. Is Darnold worth the draft value—don’t you want at the very least 7.5+ player that high and that costly? I do.
Cards can fill their QB need with one (or even two) of the vets coming on the market in FA. You can find a comparable vet QB to match the talent-level of the QBs in this draft class. The advantage is that there is no IFS attached to the performance of a NFL-proven player—the young vet has actual NFL performance tape to look at and judge. Another team has completed the training period and the young vet has learned the NFL game and how to read defenses. A whole bunch of errors and INTs and L’s won’t be made in a Cardinal uniform—they were made in the other guy’s uniform. You can also see the progression since they came into the league. With a guy straight out of school . . . you have performance as a college QB and a whole bunch of IFS.
Grade Title
9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player
8.00-9.00 Perennial All-Pro
7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro
7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl to All-Pro Ability
6.50-6.99 Good NFL Starter with Pro Bowl Potential
6.00-6.49 Chance to become good NFL starter
5.70-5.99 Could become early NFL starter
5.30-5.69 Backup or eventual starter
5.15-5.29 Developmental prospect or special teams potential
5.01-5.14 Back end of the roster
5.00 50/50 Chance of making the roster
The NFL.com rating system looks to have predictive value in how a QB later performs at the NFL level. (Somewhere somebody has done the correlation coefficients) There are some ‘outliers’—guys who play above their rating and make the team/scouts/GM look like geniuses—but for the most part guys rated the highest get drafted at the top of the 1st and also have the more productive careers. For every RWilson, you got a dozen other 4th round picks who either washed out or are carrying clipboards along the sidelines.
Once you get past the #1 and #2 rated QB, you are in dangerous territory with your pick and projecting success. Here’s the NFL. Com History of the draft page with just the QB selected:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position
You can delve back into the history of each guy by (1) Selecting the highlighted players name—this will take you to the Player Profile Page, (2) Once in the player profile page, look right below the picture and basic info box for ‘Combine’ If you see ‘Combine’ you can read his Combine results as well as the ‘Strengths’ and ‘Weakness’ eval at the time of the Combine and prior to the draft. (Note: Some older QB do not have their Combine evaluations in the database.)
A quick scan of the list down through the draft years illustrates just how difficult it is to make an accurate selection—there are plenty of names on the list who at one time were high on some fan’s wish list who are no longer even on a team. Also, there are plenty of guys who went high who are just not living up to the draft capital that was invested in taking them.
We are in the speculation phase now with every fan and analyst coming up with their take on the player profiles prior to the draft. One key word to watch for is the number of times the words ‘IF’ appears in a player’s evaluation. That word indicates the degree a team in hedging their bet to take the guy . . . “IF you give him a good OL . . . IF the coaches can correct his mechanics . . . IF you can teach him to play under center . . . IF you can work on his accuracy . . . IF he hits the gym and bulks up . . . IF he can mature and grow up . . . IF he works with our All-pro WR, RB, etc.” IF you are going to draft a guy, you want to see as few IFS as possible attached to his evaluation. (IF I weren’t so ugly, I might be considered handsome.)
A key point to remember: This particular draft class is not the end of the supply chain of players coming out of college. Cards do no need to force the issue and make a trade or selection this year. I know we don’t have a QB on the roster—but we can find a vet via FA or trade and not make the leap based on projections and a whole lot of IFS. You make that big move only when the guy you are bartering for is far-and-away highly rated and a ‘can’t miss’—and even that evaluation is a major gamble.
Cards didn’t make a move on a QB for the past several years under SK (with Logan Thomas the exception) SK’s explanation is that the player they took was rated above the QB still on the board + the draft capital it would have taken to move up. I’ve been critical of that tactic but after looking at the draft success with QBs, why take a guy that you evaluate is not going to make your roster? A drafted QB should at the very least be someone who will compete for the backup spot. That notion may be right for even this draft class that has a lot of teams eager to claim a QB. To check if this 2018 class is really QB-rich, I combined the draft ratings for both the 2017 class and the 2018 class. (I am ASSUMING the draft ratings have legitimate value to rank order these QBs)
Combined Ratings for QB for 2017 & 2018 Draft Class
DARNOLD, SAM* 6'3" 220 USC 7.1
Trubisky, M 6'2" 222 North Car Pick 2, Round 1 (2) Bears 6.3
ROSEN, JOSH* 6'4" 226 UCLA 6.1
MAYFIELD, B 6'1" 215 Oklahoma 6.0
JACKSON, LAMAR 6'3" 200 Louisville 6.0
ALLEN, JOSH 6'5" 233 Wyoming 5.9
Watson, D 6'2" 221 Clemson Pick 12, Round 1 (12) Texans 5.9
Mahomes, P 6'2" 225 Texas Tech Pick 10, Round 1 (10) Chiefs 5.8
Kizer, D 6'4" 233 Notre Dame Pick 20, Round 2 (52) Brwns 5.7
Peterman, N 6'2" 226 Pittsburgh Pick 28, Round 5 (171) Bills 5.7
RUDOLPHM 6'5" 235 Oklahoma St. 5.6
FALK, LUKE 6'4" 225 Washington St. 5.6
WHITE, M 6'4" 225 Western Kentucky 5.6
Kaaya, B 6'4" 214 Miami Pick 32, Round 6 (215) Lions 5.5
Webb, Davis 6'5" 229 California Pick 23, Round 3 (87) Giants 5.4
Kelly, Chad 6'2" 224 Mississippi Pick 35, Round 7 (253) Bronc 5.4
Dobbs, J 6'3" 216 Tennessee Pick 29, Round 4 (135) Steel 5.3
LAULETTA, KYLE 6'3" 215 Richmond 5.1
FERGUSON, RILEY 6'4" 210 Memphis 5.1
BENKERT, KURT 6'4" 215 Virginia 5.1
Beathard, C.J. QB 6'2" 219 Iowa Pick 40, Round 3 (104) 49ers 5.0
Some Quick Takes on the Combined Ratings.
Darnold has the edge over the #1 rated QB Trub from last year. Do the Cards see him as that “Pro Bowl to All Pro ability” with his 7.1 rating compared to Trub “Chance to become good NFL starter” with his 6.3 rating so much so to trade multiple draft picks to move all the way to the #1 spot?
Cards did not trade up for Trubinsky in 2017 who had a higher rating than every other QB in this class except for Darnold—that includes a lot of the QB that the fan base is looking for us to trade up for in this 2018 draft.
Cards sat pat at their spot while both KC (Mahomes) and Texas (Watson) traded and leapfrogged in front and took a QB. Cards were not willing to jump up for either Mahomes and Watson. Are the Cards now willing to jump up for Allen who has the same rating as Watson when they failed to move UP A SINGLE SLOT on Watson? That one spot up move would have been cheap in comparison to moving up to the top of this draft.
The highest-rated QB in this class is Darnold (who tops the Trub rating for last year). Moving from #15 to #1 for Darnold (or a lower rated QB) will be a major cost if the Browns are looking to hoard future draft picks with our team name on them. Browns will hold us up like Jesse James at the nearest rural bank in Missouri. Is Darnold worth the draft value—don’t you want at the very least 7.5+ player that high and that costly? I do.
Cards can fill their QB need with one (or even two) of the vets coming on the market in FA. You can find a comparable vet QB to match the talent-level of the QBs in this draft class. The advantage is that there is no IFS attached to the performance of a NFL-proven player—the young vet has actual NFL performance tape to look at and judge. Another team has completed the training period and the young vet has learned the NFL game and how to read defenses. A whole bunch of errors and INTs and L’s won’t be made in a Cardinal uniform—they were made in the other guy’s uniform. You can also see the progression since they came into the league. With a guy straight out of school . . . you have performance as a college QB and a whole bunch of IFS.
