SECTION 11
vibraslap
From the NY Giants Website:
Here's an explanation of how the NFL calculates compensatory draft picks as stated by the league:
Compensation is awarded by the NFL to teams who lost more unrestricted free agent players (UFA's) than they signed. All compensation is in the form of additional draft picks that are added to the end of rounds three through seven, in the NFL draft. To determine the number of compensatory draft picks a team is entitled to, the league determines the equivalent difference in the number of unrestricted free agent players signed compared to the number of players lost. The determining factor in the value of compensatory draft picks obtained is based on the contracts signed by the players acquired and players lost in the unrestricted free agency process. The highest possible compensatory pick begins with the last selection in the third round of the draft.
Here's a post from the Herd board (?) that sums it up pretty well.
Projecting the 2003 Compensatory Draft Picks
This came from Matt Gambill's forum, all pro scouting:
For the second straight year and third overall, I decided to do something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) - project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last year, I got 22 of the 29 true comp picks exactly right - going to the correct team in the correct round - and was off by only one round on two others. My main mistake was not setting the minimum salary to qualify for the comp equation high enough. Had I set the minimum high enough, I would have gotten 25 of the 29 true comps correct, along with all three of the "filler" comps (or additional non-compensatory picks).
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games started) and postseason honors. A simple method for determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, to cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.9 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired after the previous season (ie., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which normally ends on July 15); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp equation was Patrick Hape, who signed for $577,000 per season and played in 15 games, starting eight. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Larry Izzo, who signed for $568,700 per season and played in 16 games, starting none. That would put the minimum value, regardless of playing time, somewhere around $573,000. To determine an approximate minimum for this year's comps, I raised last year's $573,000 minimum by the percentage increase in the salary cap from 2001-2002, which was 5.48 percent. That puts the minimum at about $604,000 for this year's comps.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, both players for which third-round comps were awarded got more than $5.8 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $4 million to $4.6 million, fifth-round comp players got $3 million to $3.6 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.52 million to $2.5 million and seventh-round players got $1.15 million or less. You'll notice that between each round, there was a gap of at least $370,000 and as much as $1.2 million. That makes it difficult to know exactly where the line was between the rounds. To determine the ranges for this year's comps, I again used a 5.48-percent increase. That put the values at $6.12 million or more for third-rounders, $4.22 million to $4.85 million for fourth-rounders, $3.16 million to $3.8 million for fifth-rounders, $1.6 million to $2.637 million for sixth-rounders and $1.21 million or less for seventh-rounders. I also noted that, two years ago, the highest-paid player for which a seventh-round comp was awarded got $1.29 million per season. Even if the maximum value for seventh-rounders didn't increase from 2001 to 2002, a 5.48-percent increase this season would put the seventh-round range at $1.36 million or less. Seven of the players for which comp picks should be awarded this season have average contract values that fall in between those ranges. For those players, I assumed that the comp would be for the lower of the two rounds if their value was below that of last year's lowest-paid comp player in the higher round. If their value was equal to or greater than last year's lowest-paid comp player in the higher round, their comp would also be in the higher round unless the player was a non-starter. So, in essence, here are the ranges I used for this season's comp picks -- $5.8 million or more for the third-round, $4.22 million to $5.79 million for the fourth round, $3 million to $4.21 million for the fifth round, $1.6 million to $2.99 million for the sixth round and $1.59 million or less for the seventh round.
The NFL now awards 32 compensatory picks each season. If the comp equation results in fewer than 32 picks being awarded, the NFL awards "non-compensatory" picks to reach the maximum of 32. Those picks are awarded, in order, to the teams who would be drafting if there was an eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams who would have the first six picks in the eighth round, if there was one.
By my calculations, there will be 29 true compensatory picks and three non-compensatory picks awarded this year. Here are the picks, along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and average contract value -
THIRD ROUND
None
FOURTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Jeremiah Trotter, 12 GP/12 GS, $5.033 million)
Tampa Bay (Warrick Dunn, 15/14, $4.75 million)
Jacksonville (Kevin Hardy, 16/15, $4.6 million)
Baltimore (Duane Starks, 10/10, $4.6 million)
FIFTH ROUND
Seattle (Todd Weiner, 16/15, $3.5 million)
Miami (Kenny Mixon, 16/16, $3.4 million)
St. Louis (Az-Zahir Hakim, 10/10, $3.2 million)
Chicago (Walt Harris, 15/15, $3.0 million)
Baltimore (Lional Dalton, 16/13, $3.0 million)
SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (Jerome Pathon, 14/13, $2.519 million)
N.Y. Giants (Ron Stone, 15/15, $2.288 million)
Miami (Brian Walker, 10/8, $2.0 million)
Arizona (Michael Pittman, 16/15, $1.75 million)
SEVENTH ROUND
Green Bay (Bill Schroeder, 14/13, $1.479 million)
Miami (Lamar Smith, 11/11, $1.433 million)
N.Y. Giants (Greg Comella, 12/7, $1.458 million)
N.Y. Giants (Joe Jurevicius, 15/3, $1.581 million)
Miami (Terry Cousin, 16/16, $1.281 million)
St. Louis (Jeff Robinson, 0/0 Injured Reserve, $1.2 million)
Kansas City (Victor Riley, 14/2, $1.038 million)
Baltimore (Corey Harris, 14/0, $1.035 million)
St. Louis (Robert Holcombe, 8/0, $1.088 million)
St. Louis (Rod Jones, 0/0 Injured Reserve, $1.001 million)
Green Bay (Allen Rossum, 14/0, $1 million)
Green Bay (Barry Stokes, 16/16, $718,000)
N.Y. Giants (Morton Andersen, 14, $775,000)
Green Bay (BillyJenkins, 15/1, $738,000)
Baltimore (Patrick Johnson, 9/6, $625,000)
Tampa Bay (Rabih Abdullah, 16/0, $642,000)
Cincinnati (non-compensatory)
Detroit (non-compensatory)
Chicago (non-compensatory)
As I mentioned earlier, there were seven players whose contract values fell in between the calculated ranges for each round. Those players are Trotter, Harris, Dalton, Schroeder, Smith, Comella and Jurevicius. It would not be out of question for Trotter's comp to be in the third round; for Harris' and/or Dalton's comps to be in the sixth round; or for Schroeder's, Smith's, Comella's and Jurevicius' comps to be in the sixth round. However, the NFL tends to be stingy with comp picks, so it's probably unlikely that many of them will move up from my projection.
Here's an explanation of how the NFL calculates compensatory draft picks as stated by the league:
Compensation is awarded by the NFL to teams who lost more unrestricted free agent players (UFA's) than they signed. All compensation is in the form of additional draft picks that are added to the end of rounds three through seven, in the NFL draft. To determine the number of compensatory draft picks a team is entitled to, the league determines the equivalent difference in the number of unrestricted free agent players signed compared to the number of players lost. The determining factor in the value of compensatory draft picks obtained is based on the contracts signed by the players acquired and players lost in the unrestricted free agency process. The highest possible compensatory pick begins with the last selection in the third round of the draft.
Here's a post from the Herd board (?) that sums it up pretty well.
Projecting the 2003 Compensatory Draft Picks
This came from Matt Gambill's forum, all pro scouting:
For the second straight year and third overall, I decided to do something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) - project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last year, I got 22 of the 29 true comp picks exactly right - going to the correct team in the correct round - and was off by only one round on two others. My main mistake was not setting the minimum salary to qualify for the comp equation high enough. Had I set the minimum high enough, I would have gotten 25 of the 29 true comps correct, along with all three of the "filler" comps (or additional non-compensatory picks).
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games started) and postseason honors. A simple method for determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, to cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.9 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired after the previous season (ie., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which normally ends on July 15); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp equation was Patrick Hape, who signed for $577,000 per season and played in 15 games, starting eight. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Larry Izzo, who signed for $568,700 per season and played in 16 games, starting none. That would put the minimum value, regardless of playing time, somewhere around $573,000. To determine an approximate minimum for this year's comps, I raised last year's $573,000 minimum by the percentage increase in the salary cap from 2001-2002, which was 5.48 percent. That puts the minimum at about $604,000 for this year's comps.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, both players for which third-round comps were awarded got more than $5.8 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $4 million to $4.6 million, fifth-round comp players got $3 million to $3.6 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.52 million to $2.5 million and seventh-round players got $1.15 million or less. You'll notice that between each round, there was a gap of at least $370,000 and as much as $1.2 million. That makes it difficult to know exactly where the line was between the rounds. To determine the ranges for this year's comps, I again used a 5.48-percent increase. That put the values at $6.12 million or more for third-rounders, $4.22 million to $4.85 million for fourth-rounders, $3.16 million to $3.8 million for fifth-rounders, $1.6 million to $2.637 million for sixth-rounders and $1.21 million or less for seventh-rounders. I also noted that, two years ago, the highest-paid player for which a seventh-round comp was awarded got $1.29 million per season. Even if the maximum value for seventh-rounders didn't increase from 2001 to 2002, a 5.48-percent increase this season would put the seventh-round range at $1.36 million or less. Seven of the players for which comp picks should be awarded this season have average contract values that fall in between those ranges. For those players, I assumed that the comp would be for the lower of the two rounds if their value was below that of last year's lowest-paid comp player in the higher round. If their value was equal to or greater than last year's lowest-paid comp player in the higher round, their comp would also be in the higher round unless the player was a non-starter. So, in essence, here are the ranges I used for this season's comp picks -- $5.8 million or more for the third-round, $4.22 million to $5.79 million for the fourth round, $3 million to $4.21 million for the fifth round, $1.6 million to $2.99 million for the sixth round and $1.59 million or less for the seventh round.
The NFL now awards 32 compensatory picks each season. If the comp equation results in fewer than 32 picks being awarded, the NFL awards "non-compensatory" picks to reach the maximum of 32. Those picks are awarded, in order, to the teams who would be drafting if there was an eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams who would have the first six picks in the eighth round, if there was one.
By my calculations, there will be 29 true compensatory picks and three non-compensatory picks awarded this year. Here are the picks, along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and average contract value -
THIRD ROUND
None
FOURTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Jeremiah Trotter, 12 GP/12 GS, $5.033 million)
Tampa Bay (Warrick Dunn, 15/14, $4.75 million)
Jacksonville (Kevin Hardy, 16/15, $4.6 million)
Baltimore (Duane Starks, 10/10, $4.6 million)
FIFTH ROUND
Seattle (Todd Weiner, 16/15, $3.5 million)
Miami (Kenny Mixon, 16/16, $3.4 million)
St. Louis (Az-Zahir Hakim, 10/10, $3.2 million)
Chicago (Walt Harris, 15/15, $3.0 million)
Baltimore (Lional Dalton, 16/13, $3.0 million)
SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (Jerome Pathon, 14/13, $2.519 million)
N.Y. Giants (Ron Stone, 15/15, $2.288 million)
Miami (Brian Walker, 10/8, $2.0 million)
Arizona (Michael Pittman, 16/15, $1.75 million)
SEVENTH ROUND
Green Bay (Bill Schroeder, 14/13, $1.479 million)
Miami (Lamar Smith, 11/11, $1.433 million)
N.Y. Giants (Greg Comella, 12/7, $1.458 million)
N.Y. Giants (Joe Jurevicius, 15/3, $1.581 million)
Miami (Terry Cousin, 16/16, $1.281 million)
St. Louis (Jeff Robinson, 0/0 Injured Reserve, $1.2 million)
Kansas City (Victor Riley, 14/2, $1.038 million)
Baltimore (Corey Harris, 14/0, $1.035 million)
St. Louis (Robert Holcombe, 8/0, $1.088 million)
St. Louis (Rod Jones, 0/0 Injured Reserve, $1.001 million)
Green Bay (Allen Rossum, 14/0, $1 million)
Green Bay (Barry Stokes, 16/16, $718,000)
N.Y. Giants (Morton Andersen, 14, $775,000)
Green Bay (BillyJenkins, 15/1, $738,000)
Baltimore (Patrick Johnson, 9/6, $625,000)
Tampa Bay (Rabih Abdullah, 16/0, $642,000)
Cincinnati (non-compensatory)
Detroit (non-compensatory)
Chicago (non-compensatory)
As I mentioned earlier, there were seven players whose contract values fell in between the calculated ranges for each round. Those players are Trotter, Harris, Dalton, Schroeder, Smith, Comella and Jurevicius. It would not be out of question for Trotter's comp to be in the third round; for Harris' and/or Dalton's comps to be in the sixth round; or for Schroeder's, Smith's, Comella's and Jurevicius' comps to be in the sixth round. However, the NFL tends to be stingy with comp picks, so it's probably unlikely that many of them will move up from my projection.
