Great expectations = great pressure
By
Gary Gillette
ESPN Insider
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Touted as a mature hitter with great power potential ever since he was a first-round pick by Arizona in 2003 (out of California),
Conor Jackson has excelled at every professional level -- until reaching the majors late last year. The big right-handed hitter was rated as the No. 2 prospect in the Arizona system by Baseball America this spring, and great things are expected of him offensively.
In his pro debut in 2003, Jackson tore up the Northwest League even though he was playing with a sore shoulder. And he hit the magic .300 number at every way station in the Diamondbacks' system -- .319 at Yakima in 2003, .345 at Lancaster (California League) and .301 at El Paso (Texas League) in 2004, and .354 at Tucson (PCL) in 2005 -- before being called up. Along with those high batting averages came good doubles power, good on-base percentages and very few strikeouts.
With great expectations, however, comes great pressure. A scout's player who also impresses statistical analysts, Jackson draws raves for his bat speed, plate discipline
and makeup. His line-drive power is expected to mature into over-the-fence power, and if he can maintain his excellent BA and OBP numbers, he will be a star.
But there are a lot of
buts associated with Jackson's profile as a top prospect. Jackson deservedly gets kudos for his knowledge of the strike zone and pitch-recognition skills. He has a strong, compact swing and a quick bat, with the kind of inside-out stroke that scouts and hitting coaches love.
So what's not to like? To start with, some scouts worry that he is too reactive and doesn't look for and attack pitches he should be able to drive. One scout described him as having "big-field power" -- a term that sounds positive yet often isn't. The phrase "big-field power," taken to extremes, can mean a lot of deep fly-ball outs to center and to the gaps in deep left center and right center. And fewer home runs than expected for a hitter with legitimate power.
Defensively, Jackson has washed out in trials at third base and in both corners of the outfield. He has neither the arm nor the hands needed for the hot corner, and he has neither the range nor the arm for the outfield. He showed well below-average mobility and range at first base in his 20 games there in 2005, and it doesn't look like he's improved thus far this season. He'll need to work hard on his defense unless he wants to give back a good portion of the runs he creates as a hitter. Jackson is also slow afoot, though he's a decent baserunner.
Batting mostly in the No. 5 slot in the Arizona lineup, Jackson has not thrived this April. Most critically, he is not hitting right-handers (.683 OPS, no homers in 26 at-bats), following up on an even worse stat line against righties last year (.167 BA, .459 OPS, no homers in 54 at-bats). True, those are small samples, and Jackson could quickly demonstrate they don't mean much by having a big month.
What Jackson needs to do is concentrate more on selecting pitches he can pull, thus upping his extra-base rate. Even if he does that, he's still plenty strong enough to hit the ball out to the opposite field on pitches over the plate. So far this year, he has been pulling the ball more, though it hasn't resulted in the power increase it should.
If Jackson can learn to pick his pitches, swinging with malice at those he knows he can drive, everyone should be happy with the results -- whether that means 45 doubles and 15 home runs over a full season, or whether it means 30 doubles and 25 home runs. But he needs to show that he can punish right-handers when they don't make a perfect pitch. Jackson will hit for a solid average and walk plenty of times either way, but he's projected as a power bat and needs to fulfill that role to be truly valuable.
As long as veteran switch-hitter
Tony Clark remains on the Arizona roster, Jackson is in danger of being reduced to platoon status if he continues to perform below expectations. Rumors have Clark being on the trade block, though, and Jackson could hasten the veteran's exit from the Valley of the Sun by demonstrating he's truly ready for prime time.
At 24, Jackson has some time -- though not a lot -- to mature. His development as a hitter has probably been hurt by the Diamondbacks' experimenting with him as an outfielder for several years after they concluded he couldn't handle third base. He'll get every opportunity to prove he can become the middle-of-the-order slugger the D-Backs expect him to be, but he hasn't shown (so far) that he's very close to becoming the feared slugger they projected.
Gary Gillette is the editor of "The 2006 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia," which was published in March by Sterling. Click here to order a copy. Gary can be reached via e-mail at [email protected].
