Cousins too expensive for AZ

[sportznutt]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbs...s-reportedly-too-expensive-for-cardinals/amp/

 

[Brian in Mesa]

He's just not worth that kind of investment, IMHO. Cousins will only take you so far. Would much rather go in a different direction.

 

[WildBB]

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Mike Jurecki

✔@mikejurecki

Considering the money that Cousins is expected to get I don’t think the Cardinals were truly in the sweepstakes. They’ll bring in couple veteran quarterback’s and draft one. Need to get the Oline figured out. https://twitter.com/axumchild/status/967464623015329793 …
+1

 

[TRW]

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-j...irk-cousins-trend-that-should-give-jets-pause

Interesting article. I know Cousins is a polarizing player and supporters will point to the franchise he's played for but the record against division/top teams is concerning.

 

[Arz101]

Nice for Cards to say they are pulling out. I think Cousins agent told Cardinals to take a hike for any money.


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[AZfaninMN]

After much thought on this topic/QB, I’d rather have a game manager and a rookie QB here and rely on our running game and play action. All while spending about half of what they’re projecting cousins will make. We could save about $15m and get a decent qb who won’t turn the ball over and bolster our d and oline. We might not be exciting to watch offensively, but I think we could win some games while our rookie qb learns the game.

 

[Brak]

I like Cousins, but not at "elite" top-of-market money. I'd rather have Keenum for a lower rate, or even Bradford as long as the money is reasonable. Some idiot owner is going to pay this cat ~$30m, and screw his cap up for years to come. Brady, Brees or Rodgers are the only ones worth that kind of coin nowadays.

 

[Harry]

Pass.....

 

[Mitch]

Pass.....

Pun intended?

 

[Cheesebeef]

fine by me

 

[overseascardfan]

The thing is even a decent veteran QB is not going to be cheap, especially one south of 30. Thanks to Jimmy G, Smith & Cousins potential record breaking deal, all QB's are in line for a big raise. Maybe a guy like McCown would be reasonable but he's going to be 39 years old. ARZ is going to spend money on a QB no matter who it is, but they are smart to avoid going into Cousins type money for a QB.

 

[Solar7]

This article doesn't exactly cite any sources besides Jurecki saying "I don't think the Cardinals were in the sweepstakes." There's no real reporting here besides two guys saying their gut says they won't be doing it.

Don't get me wrong, as we get closer, I don't think we will be either, but this article doesn't even come with "sources say."

 

[az jam]

This article doesn't exactly cite any sources besides Jurecki saying "I don't think the Cardinals were in the sweepstakes." There's no real reporting here besides two guys saying their gut says they won't be doing it.

Don't get me wrong, as we get closer, I don't think we will be either, but this article doesn't even come with "sources say."

Agree, it's just Jurecki and he is just throwing out his opinion. Cards are keeping their moves very close to their vest.

 

[NYCARDS]

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Mike Jurecki

✔@mikejurecki

Considering the money that Cousins is expected to get I don’t think the Cardinals were truly in the sweepstakes. They’ll bring in couple veteran quarterback’s and draft one. Need to get the Oline figured out. https://twitter.com/axumchild/status/967464623015329793 …
+1

Agreed. And if Jets land Cousins I would be ok with McCown being that vet to come in as the bridge QB

 

[WisconsinCard]

After much thought on this topic/QB, I’d rather have a game manager and a rookie QB here and rely on our running game and play action. All while spending about half of what they’re projecting cousins will make. We could save about $15m and get a decent qb who won’t turn the ball over and bolster our d and oline. We might not be exciting to watch offensively, but I think we could win some games while our rookie qb learns the game.

The whole time I'm reading our post I am thinking Tyron Taylor, is who you are describing. I get it, but I think he is going to want 20 million too. The QB pay scale is through the roof, and to me it is obvious we are drafting a QB this year, so any QB coming here either has no other options or is going to want to get "over paid" because of it.

 

[redheat]

Keim has had multiple offseasons to get a QB of the future. It’s a sham. Cards won’t do it. They are going veteran stop gap forever!

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

So much for "very aggressive."

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

After reading the "article" it's based solely off Jureki's speculation. Therefore: completely unreliable.

 

[AZfaninMN]

The whole time I'm reading our post I am thinking Tyron Taylor, is who you are describing. I get it, but I think he is going to want 20 million too. The QB pay scale is through the roof, and to me it is obvious we are drafting a QB this year, so any QB coming here either has no other options or is going to want to get "over paid" because of it.

Do you really think he’ll command that much? If we can’t get a vet with starter experience for cheap ($15-$18m), I would be all for our rookie starting day one and build a team around him the way the eagles did. Good offensive line and defense can take your team a long ways with a rookie qb.

 

[football karma]

After reading the "article" it's based solely off Jureki's speculation. Therefore: completely unreliable.

agreed. Jurecki has sources, but not at that level

 

[CardsFan88]

Cousins is the best veteran free agent QB out there, and he's going to be paid handsomely because of it. There is a case that even if he does above realistic expectations, he could cap strap his team fairly big on the back end of the contract.

Right now, everyone is assuming the cap will continue to rise by how it has been. I was the one years ago when this CBA was signed that the increases were going to get to 10+ a year and would increase as we got towards the end of the CBA.

But... the cap rises aren't guaranteed beyond the current CBA, and even then only for as long as the networks can stomach it.

The NFL needs to spend a certain amount of revenue on players, and in the beginning of the CBA they kept it flat to gauge everything and get it rolling. So to average it, it needed to go above average the last couple of years. Plus I think they had to actually spend it on players, so if a bunch of teams are under the cap significantly for years, that might raise the overall cap for every team on the back end to account for that.

But that all ends once the CBA expires. Even a raise in broadcasting rights might lead to a flat cap the first couple of years of the new CBA, since these other factors were artificially inflating the cap versus actual revenues in these end years of the previous CBA.

So right now we're in a situation where every GM basically hasn't had to really worry about the cap like in decades past. You pretty much couldn't get into cap hell during this CBA. Any first time GM's hired in the last 5 or so years have never seen anything but the goldilocks cap situation.

The good cap commanders aren't the people who can navigate a goldilocks period, it's those who can navigate it when things aren't goldilocks.

This era, you could be limited for a year or two as you cut a few players and the cap jumped 20+ million, but it wasn't like in the past where you had to start cutting everyone just to get under. So GM's right now aren't really being tested on their cap prowess. A rising cap tide lifts all boats.

Why do I bring this up? Well we're in the back half of the CBA. Three years left. If Cousins signs a 5 or 6 year deal, that deal will extend beyond the current CBA. The next CBA isn't going to be like the current goldilocks CBA.

It is very possible it is close to flat, perhaps even down. They have some wiggle room with streaming rights, but all the low hanging fruit has already been picked.

A 30 million average deal might have a pretty big 4th-5th-6th year cap number if backloaded. Which could be a big problem if the cap is close to flat or down during those 4th-5th-6th years.

They just did the TNF deal, where basically Fox bid against itself, while everyone else was basically undercutting it.

CBS offered less then the 225 million it paid this past season, while NBC's was about the same as last year. Overall Fox is going to pay close to 50 percent more.

The headlines might say how great of a deal that was, but the red flag siren warning signs are also showing when CBS and NBC were offering flat to down. Well, that's two of the four entities that pay the NFL for broadcasting rights which makes up the vast majority of the revenue that goes into setting what the salary cap is.

We're at a point where Fox just decided to pay about 40-50 million per game. Think about that for a minute. They have to make that back with ads.

For the cap to rise like it did this CBA, the next CBA is going to have to take things to eventually ~100 million a game/Sunday by say 2028 or so. That too will have to be made back with ads. That's to match the last CBA, heck it might need to be higher to match.

Ad prices effect product prices. Higher ad costs. Higher product prices. People have their limits.

Meanwhile we have cord cutting and ESPN is bleeding hundreds of thousands of customers a month. People are pissed off about the high prices. About the protests. About Goodell's idiocy regarding domestic violence and overall legal troubles of players and how he handles it. Catch rule. About the rules changes to protect players at the cost of the violence of the game. The public funding of stadiums, where now the going rate seems to be 1-2 billion and heading higher. So on and so forth. The NFL has a lot of headwinds going against it.

We can't keep projecting goldilocks and high growth forever when the people who pay the NFL are in decline. Especially when ratings are going down.

So any NFL team should be wary about how much they have allocated in contracts that go beyond the current CBA. A good cap manager will try to make it so they don't have many commitments past the 2020 season. Not until there is more certainty with the next CBA, which as of a few months ago there were stories saying nothing is happening and to expect the owners to play hardball.

The next three years we can have a recession/depression. Regardless of anything, places like ESPN will have endured another 3 years of cord cutting, especially as the rate raises their cable bills. Goodell can still screw up more. People can watch another couple hundred players get arrested. Maybe more murder like Carruth and Hernandez. So on and so forth.

The NFL will still exist and make money, but the gravy train of ESPN going from 50 cents a month to $9 a month, that run up is getting challenged. Things like this helped fund the broadcast rights deals. If that isn't going up anymore, that's one less network bidding up the rights.

Hell ESPN has been in a goldilocks period. They are the only basic cable channel to basically get paid like they are an HBO. If you get those premium channels they average about $9 a month if you get them all. ESPN, regardless of whether or not people want ESPN or ever watch it, is basically the same cost. This is the sweetest deal any cable company has ever had.... yet they are bleeding money. Think about that. Cord cutting and custom packages are destroying that deal, yet the NFL and the players still want more money. Something's got to give.

There's tons of people who don't want to pay ESPN $15 or more a month in their basic cable package in a few years. So if they can't do that, and NFL has lower ratings, it's hard to ask for more money for broadcast rights.

So that's THREE of the FOUR paying broadcasting rights which are signalling major trouble ahead.

How much will NFL Sunday Ticket cost under the new CBA if it's up to $399 now? $499? $599. More?

How much more can they charge for tickets, parking, beer, food?

Of course if a NFL cap goes flat or down, you can bet labor strife would be right around the corner. The players want MORE. The owners want MORE. Yet both might have to deal with less. Imagine the fight that might unfold if these trends don't turn around pronto.

So whatever the Cards do, as we go forward these next three years, Mike Disner and Steve Keim really need to be on the ball regarding this potential cap cliff that could happen. Kirk Cousins could be a contract that bites us on the back end. That said, we need a QB, so if you allocate for one overpaid contract, a QB contract is a bit more palatable imo. Nevertheless, I hope the Cards are careful starting now.

This could also showcase why a rookie QB this year or next would be a great deal. If you have five years control, that takes you past the CBA. If it's flat or down, the negotiating for a 2nd contract would be based on that new reality, whatever reality that might be.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Do you really think he’ll command that much? If we can’t get a vet with starter experience for cheap ($15-$18m), I would be all for our rookie starting day one and build a team around him the way the eagles did. Good offensive line and defense can take your team a long ways with a rookie qb.

Command? I said want, he is due a 6 mil bonus and 10 mil in salary for this upcoming year. I think it is reasonable to assume that if he hits the streets he might want a raise. I believe he'll get his 16 mil this next year either way.