Dansby Economics

[Reddog]

You can’t blame Dansby for considering his options when so much is at stake. Given ADubs deal and assuming Dansby can get that much or more in the uncapped year he stands to lose a ton of money by signing the wrong deal.

If you assume an $18.5M guaranteed number and considering he gets $9.7 this year there is $8.8 M at stake. Much like Fitz his deal is about timing and circumstances. If he plays out the FTag and gets that same $18.5M next year in essence he is risking injury for a total guaranteed number of $18.5M + $9.7M for a total of $28.2M over the next twelve months. While he is not what Fitz is relative to LBs he certainly is every bit as valuable as Pace.

The only way I see this happening is if the cards do a 7 year deal with somewhere north of Pace’s $22M guarantee. Is he worth 7 years with $24M guaranteed? Obviously they would need to spread the payments out. Even at that he might think he is giving a home team discount of $4.2M. Is it worth the injury risk to him or the team? He takes the short-term risk if he plays out the Ftag the team takes it if they sign him to a long term deal. They also risk him wanting a new deal in 4-5 years if he plays lights out and the cap keeps going up insanely.

 

[cardsfanmd]

You can’t blame Dansby for considering his options when so much is at stake. Given ADubs deal and assuming Dansby can get that much or more in the uncapped year he stands to lose a ton of money by signing the wrong deal.

If you assume an $18.5M guaranteed number and considering he gets $9.7 this year there is $8.8 M at stake. Much like Fitz his deal is about timing and circumstances. If he plays out the FTag and gets that same $18.5M next year in essence he is risking injury for a total guaranteed number of $18.5M + $9.7M for a total of $28.2M over the next twelve months. While he is not what Fitz is relative to LBs he certainly is every bit as valuable as Pace.

The only way I see this happening is if the cards do a 7 year deal with somewhere north of Pace’s $22M guarantee. Is he worth 7 years with $24M guaranteed? Obviously they would need to spread the payments out. Even at that he might think he is giving a home team discount of $4.2M. Is it worth the injury risk to him or the team? He takes the short-term risk if he plays out the Ftag the team takes it if they sign him to a long term deal. They also risk him wanting a new deal in 4-5 years if he plays lights out and the cap keeps going up insanely.

Dansby is not going to get Pace $$ if he re-signs with us this year. In fact, he likely wont get it no matter what position he signs on to play wherever he plays. Pace got what he got because there are very few 265lb guys who can rush the passer and drop back into coverage. His only hope of getting that amount is that he is signing a deal two years later.

 

[cgolden]

Dansby is not going to get Pace $$ if he re-signs with us this year. In fact, he likely wont get it no matter what position he signs on to play wherever he plays. Pace got what he got because there are very few 265lb guys who can rush the passer and drop back into coverage. His only hope of getting that amount is that he is signing a deal two years later.

I'll sheepishly disagree. I think Dansby's deal will blow Pace's out of the water, provided he stay's healthy this year. The defense will be set up around him making plays and there's little reason to think he won't top 120+ tackles, several sacks and a couple picks. He's probably still a long shot for the Pro Bowl considering the MLB's in the NFC but at his age, he's going to enter free agency in his prime coming off of two great seasons.

A six to eight year deal worth between eight and nine mil per season with probably close to 30 mil guaranteed wouldn't surprise me a bit. (just to throw a ballpark figure out there.....seven years for 60 mil with 30 guaranteed)

 

[Reddog]

Dansby is not going to get Pace $$ if he re-signs with us this year. In fact, he likely wont get it no matter what position he signs on to play wherever he plays. Pace got what he got because there are very few 265lb guys who can rush the passer and drop back into coverage. His only hope of getting that amount is that he is signing a deal two years later.

Reality doesn't really matter here. This is about Dansby's perception and the possibility that someone else is willing to throw some serious coin at him which barring injury they will. This is about whether we resign him or not and what it will take. If the team agrees with your position he will be playing for another team next year. His position is valid and his assumption has to be that he will be paid commiserate with Pace or Bart Scott (6yrs $48M w/$22M Guaranteed) especially in an uncapped year.

 

[DKCards]

One thing to take into consideration also is that he just hired a new agent. That agent didn’t make anything off the franchise tag offer that Dansby signed. The only way he gets paid is when Danby signs a new contract.

So what advise is he giving him? If he signs now he will get paid now. If he waits till next year he might hit the jackpot or he could lose everything. Is he willing to take the gamble that Dansby doesn’t get hurt or have a sub par season? I would think that the agent really wants to get it done this year.

 

[Buckybird]

Dansby is not going to get Pace $$ if he re-signs with us this year. In fact, he likely wont get it no matter what position he signs on to play wherever he plays. Pace got what he got because there are very few 265lb guys who can rush the passer and drop back into coverage. His only hope of getting that amount is that he is signing a deal two years later.

Want to bet? Karlos will get his from someone.

 

[Buckybird]

I'll sheepishly disagree. I think Dansby's deal will blow Pace's out of the water, provided he stay's healthy this year. The defense will be set up around him making plays and there's little reason to think he won't top 120+ tackles, several sacks and a couple picks. He's probably still a long shot for the Pro Bowl considering the MLB's in the NFC but at his age, he's going to enter free agency in his prime coming off of two great seasons.

A six to eight year deal worth between eight and nine mil per season with probably close to 30 mil guaranteed wouldn't surprise me a bit. (just to throw a ballpark figure out there.....seven years for 60 mil with 30 guaranteed)

couldn't agree more. Didn't most people on this board last year think Pace wouldn't get big $$$. There is always a buyer in the NFL.

 

[Duckjake]

Dansby is not going to get Pace $$ if he re-signs with us this year. In fact, he likely wont get it no matter what position he signs on to play wherever he plays. Pace got what he got because there are very few 265lb guys who can rush the passer and drop back into coverage. His only hope of getting that amount is that he is signing a deal two years later.

Don't overlook that Dansby can be a 250lb guy who can rush the passer (17 sacks '04-'06) and drop into coverage ( 9 career INTs) as an OLB in a 4-3. That could make a huge difference in how much money he may be offered.

 

[Skkorpion]

Read Urban on this. It's about the cash. joeschmo has been telling you all along. There are no more deals likely to be done this year.

http://www.azcardinals.com/blog/blog.php?author=1

 

[joeshmo]

Read Urban on this. It's about the cash. joeschmo has been telling you all along. There are no more deals likely to be done this year.

http://www.azcardinals.com/blog/blog.php?author=1

I think they still want to get Dansby done, but you are correct in terms of getting both Dansby and Boldin done.

 

[joeshmo]

Don't overlook that Dansby can be a 250lb guy who can rush the passer (17 sacks '04-'06) and drop into coverage ( 9 career INTs) as an OLB in a 4-3. That could make a huge difference in how much money he may be offered.

Rushing the passer as a 3-4 OLB and rushing the passer as a 4-3 OLB is completely different one does it way more then the other, so I am not so sure your point applies in this case. But in terms of comparing to other 4-3 OLB's you got a point without a doubt.

 

[joeshmo]

His position is valid and his assumption has to be that he will be paid commiserate with Pace or Bart Scott (6yrs $48M w/$22M Guaranteed) especially in an uncapped year.

We already offered a deal commiserate with those two before he fired his agent. The deal on the table when he fired his agent was 42 mill, 20 mill guaranteed over 6 years. So it isn't like they are very far off to what Dansby might feel is good value.

I am going to go on record right now and say a deal with Dansby will be done before July 15th for many reasons and I am actually confident in that. (note that it wont be the first time I am confident and it turns out wrong)

1. We are already offering ball park figures commiserate with the top LB's in the league.
2. Dansby's new and improved look at negotiating, meaning shutting his mouth and letting his agent do the work, just like Wilson.
3. Dansby's recent comments from the Wilson press conference of which Wilson asked him to attend and he and his girlfriend did in fact attend.
4. Wilson has Dansbys ear, they are best friends so you better believe Wilson is talking to him and trying to show him the way, its a big reason why Wilson invited him to his presser.
5. I know for a fact they are in hard negotiations as we speak, both sides very receptive.
6. The biggest one that gives me so much confidence, the once doom and gloom comments from Urban have completely done a 180 and he is no longer doom and gloom about getting a deal done with him, it may still be apprehensive, but I have learned to take this subtle hints from Urban, who tells you a lot more then we realize.
7. Finally, becuase if the reports are right on Wilsons deal and we only have 1.5 mill in cap space left, we dont have enough to sign our rookies let alone deal with injuries. Tells me one of two things Cards without a doubt have confidence that a deal with Dansby will be done or a veteran will be cut(fransisco, or someone else making more then they should)

We shall see. But I think people will be very surprised.

 

[82CardsGrad]

We already offered a deal commiserate with those two before he fired his agent. The deal on the table when he fired his agent was 42 mill, 20 mill guaranteed over 6 years. So it isn't like they are very far off to what Dansby might feel is good value.

I am going to go on record right now and say a deal with Dansby will be done before July 15th for many reasons and I am actually confident in that. (note that it wont be the first time I am confident and it turns out wrong)

1. We are already offering ball park figures commiserate with the top LB's in the league.
2. Dansby's new and improved look at negotiating, meaning shutting his mouth and letting his agent do the work, just like Wilson.
3. Dansby's recent comments from the Wilson press conference of which Wilson asked him to attend and he and his girlfriend did in fact attend.
4. Wilson has Dansbys ear, they are best friends so you better believe Wilson is talking to him and trying to show him the way, its a big reason why Wilson invited him to his presser.
5. I know for a fact they are in hard negotiations as we speak, both sides very receptive.
6. The biggest one that gives me so much confidence, the once doom and gloom comments from Urban have completely done a 180 and he is no longer doom and gloom about getting a deal done with him, it may still be apprehensive, but I have learned to take this subtle hints from Urban, who tells you a lot more then we realize.
7. Finally, becuase if the reports are right on Wilsons deal and we only have 1.5 mill in cap space left, we dont have enough to sign our rookies let alone deal with injuries. Tells me one of two things Cards without a doubt have confidence that a deal with Dansby will be done or a veteran will be cut(fransisco, or someone else making more then they should)

We shall see. But I think people will be very surprised.

 

[Perfectionist]

joeshmo, you just have to be right. I hope this is one time you are confident and it does not turn out wrong. Go Cards!!

 

[joeshmo]

joeshmo, you just have to be right. I hope this is one time you are confident and it does not turn out wrong. Go Cards!!

Well I got Wilson right based on the same signs, here is hoping I can bat a thousand on these two.

 

[Reddog]

We already offered a deal commiserate with those two before he fired his agent. The deal on the table when he fired his agent was 42 mill, 20 mill guaranteed over 6 years. So it isn't like they are very far off to what Dansby might feel is good value.

We shall see. But I think people will be very surprised.

I hope you are right (and you have proven to be in the past) but if his perspective reflects what I laid out here, in his mind it could be off by as much as $8.2M. Thats a big number. The fact that he fired his agent over thinking that that deal was enough leads me to believe he is looking to leverage the fact that he was franchised and can get another big payday next year. If not far off is spliting the difference and upping the anti another 4M for 6-7 years than I can see it happening but that is crazy money.

 

[AZ Native]

I just don't see it. I see Karlos taking almost 10 mil this year and thinking he will cash in big next year (hoping for no salary cap). I don't think he gives a crap about his cap space this year, only $$$$ in his own pocket. IMHO.

 

[Stout]

You know what, Joe? If we do get Dansby done, I'll withdraw all the criticism I have for the FO and how slow they are getting deals done. I know Boldin isn't getting a deal this year no matter what, but I'm okay with that. He's under contract for two years. Wilson and Dansby extended would make me VERY happy.

 

[ARZCardinals]

Consider this number ZERO - the amount he's worth with a busted body.

He can play no doubt, but the risk is huge in the NFL.

 

[Duckjake]

Consider this number ZERO - the amount he's worth with a busted body.

He can play no doubt, but the risk is huge in the NFL.

Lets see, since the Cards moved to Arizona in 1988 they've had how many players injured severely enough to threaten their career? Andre Wadsworth, KVB, and Garrison Hearst.

The latter two still went on to success with other teams.

So we've had one guy in 20 years in Arizona who had his career ruined by a broken body. However, Wadsworth had received a $10+ million signing bonus as a rookie. So in 20 years not one player has missed out financially because of an injury.

Looks like the odds are in Dansby's favor.

 

[40yearfan]

You know what, Joe? If we do get Dansby done, I'll withdraw all the criticism I have for the FO and how slow they are getting deals done. I know Boldin isn't getting a deal this year no matter what, but I'm okay with that. He's under contract for two years. Wilson and Dansby extended would make me VERY happy.

Could someone forward this post to Graves?

 

[TigToad]

I was just watching NFL network, probably last night's rerun of NFL total access. One of the reports was that now that Wilson was signed the Cardinals focus is on Dansby and that a deal was likely going to be done within a week.

Nothing we've heard locally, but an interesting national story.

 

[bankybruce]

I was just watching NFL network, probably last night's rerun of NFL total access. One of the reports was that now that Wilson was signed the Cardinals focus is on Dansby and that a deal was likely going to be done within a week.

Nothing we've heard locally, but an interesting national story.

I do not think he will get done and I do not blame the FO. From listening to interviews with him, it really seems that he wants to test FA and see what he can get. I think he ends up a Giant.

 

[TigToad]

I didn't think so either, but it was inspiring to watch NFL network. They were reporting this as if it was all but done.

I do not think he will get done and I do not blame the FO. From listening to interviews with him, it really seems that he wants to test FA and see what he can get. I think he ends up a Giant.

 

[Cards Czar]

We already offered a deal commiserate with those two before he fired his agent. The deal on the table when he fired his agent was 42 mill, 20 mill guaranteed over 6 years. So it isn't like they are very far off to what Dansby might feel is good value.

I am going to go on record right now and say a deal with Dansby will be done before July 15th for many reasons and I am actually confident in that. (note that it wont be the first time I am confident and it turns out wrong)

1. We are already offering ball park figures commiserate with the top LB's in the league.
2. Dansby's new and improved look at negotiating, meaning shutting his mouth and letting his agent do the work, just like Wilson.
3. Dansby's recent comments from the Wilson press conference of which Wilson asked him to attend and he and his girlfriend did in fact attend.
4. Wilson has Dansbys ear, they are best friends so you better believe Wilson is talking to him and trying to show him the way, its a big reason why Wilson invited him to his presser.
5. I know for a fact they are in hard negotiations as we speak, both sides very receptive.
6. The biggest one that gives me so much confidence, the once doom and gloom comments from Urban have completely done a 180 and he is no longer doom and gloom about getting a deal done with him, it may still be apprehensive, but I have learned to take this subtle hints from Urban, who tells you a lot more then we realize.
7. Finally, becuase if the reports are right on Wilsons deal and we only have 1.5 mill in cap space left, we dont have enough to sign our rookies let alone deal with injuries. Tells me one of two things Cards without a doubt have confidence that a deal with Dansby will be done or a veteran will be cut(fransisco, or someone else making more then they should)

We shall see. But I think people will be very surprised.

You are correct. You could just let go a few players that will be cut later in the year and get back a few million easley.

A, Fransico you would save 940K.
M. Ware you save 310K.
J.Green you save 225K.
V. Hobson yo usave 310K.

Right there you save 1.785M.