Detroit Free Press: DREW SHARP: More Pistons win, more they risk losing Okur

George O'Brien

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Detroit Free Press: DREW SHARP: More Pistons win, more they risk losing Okur

May 28, 2004





BY DREW SHARP
FREE PRESS COLUMNIST



The Guarantee and The Block already have taken high places in Pistons playoff lore, but when the pixie dust dissipates at season's end, attention will shift to The Gamble.

By definition, that implies a cost for losing.

How does a price tag of around $7 million a year sound?

That's how much the Pistons might have to pay Mehmet Okur to keep him this summer.

"I'm excited about my future," said Okur, an impending restricted free agent. "I'm not nervous about what might happen this summer. I know that if we do well and keep playing that people will pay attention. Everything will be OK."

Why shouldn't this just-turned-25-year-old maintain a cool outlook?

There's no pressure on him. The one sweating profusely is Joe Dumars.

The Pistons president of basketball operations doesn't have the luxury of tunnel vision. He can't afford Larry Brown's obsession with winning now regardless of the consequences. Success has a short shelf life.

Dumars must balance the euphoria over the Pistons' run toward their first NBA Finals berth in 14 years against the realities of maintaining a quality product several years down the road. And Okur is as important as Rasheed Wallace in that equilibrium.

Is Dumars the equal of the Red Wings' Ken Holland as a master juggler?

The Pistons can't keep Okur for the salary slot they thought they would have when Dumars green-lighted the trade for Wallace. The no-risk rationale spun from Auburn Hills after the trade is now exposed as wishful thinking.

League sources say Okur will receive offers for a minimum of $6 million a year and perhaps as much as $8.5 million in a multiyear deal.

Phoenix supposedly rates first among suitors. The Suns think Okur's perimeter skills would be the perfect complement to Amare Stoudemire's talents in the low post.

Denver and Utah also are projected as key players in the bidding for Okur.

The cost will be outrageous for a promising second-year player who doesn't start, but the hypnotic lure of a young 7-footer often overwhelms common sense. Or have you forgotten about Darko Milicic?

"I'm happy here," Okur said. "This is where I started. My friends are here. I'm happy with coaches and my teammates. I have a good time with them. It's a lot of fun. I don't want to talk about (free agency) because we're doing well, and that's what's important right now."

Okur sounds as though he's as good as gone.

Brown is two victories shy of taking the Pistons to the NBA Finals. If the Pistons make it that far, he will have won more influence with personnel decisions. And Brown wouldn't lose a second's sleep sacrificing Okur for the sake of bringing back Wallace at any price if it means improving his chances of winning his first NBA championship.

Commit long term to Wallace -- anything beyond three years at $27 million would be insane -- and you're gambling that his exemplary behavior the last three months reflects a genuine rehabilitation and not smoke and mirrors in a season his contract is up.

But the Pistons can't afford to lose Okur because there's little confidence among the brain trust that Milicic could contribute consistently before the 2005-06 season. Watching Okur emerge as a reliable 18-point, 10-rebound player elsewhere would only inflame the sting of the Darko miscalculation.

There comes a time when a franchise must not only nurture and develop its nucleus but invest in it as well. If Okur bolts, what message does that send to Carlos Delfino? Why should he bother buying out his contract with Italian team Skipper Bologna if he thinks he won't like it here or will sit at the end of the bench next season?

The courtship with Okur requires the usual coddling and stroking. Okur's agent, Mark Fleischer, attended Game 7 against New Jersey, and Dumars frequently assures Okur that he will become a key part of a championship contender.

Lost along the periphery of Game 2 at Indiana was Okur's nine-point effort in the first half, which kept the Pistons close to the Pacers with Ben Wallace on the bench. There he was banging for position in that previously foreign terrain -- the low post.

Despite the appearance of conflict with Okur, Brown has made him a better-rounded offensive player. Brown pushed, prodded and punished, and now we're seeing a slightly more refined fruit of his labor.

Inconsistencies remain. Okur still hasn't grasped the concept that defense requires moving his feet, but understand that those size-19s are quick enough to seize a pile of money when it becomes available.

And it will come this summer.
 

F-Dog

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If the Suns draft a small, this is the FA they should be targeting. (repeat ad infinitum) :p


I still think that Utah will be the front-runner for Okur, though, and Denver could easily be second in line.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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ugh. i can't stand okur and think he's waaaay overhyped. if we sign him i'll be pissed.
 

Errntknght

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Hopefully, the Pistons will get into the finals where we'll get a chance to see how he does against Malone and Shaq. He's barely held his own against Foster and my guess is that he'll fold against some real strength. He's a seriously flawed defender already because he has very poor instincts and lacks quick reactions. And he's 25 years old so you wouldn't expect to see much if any positive change in those parameters. If he doesn't show superior strength he'll always be a major liability on defense... which the Pistons can probably tolerate better than most teams. Give him a couple of years of D'Antoni's defensive coaching and he'll be confused as well.

True, his offensive game is a good fit for the Suns - assuming his passing is better than he's been able to show against Indiana - but if he doesn't come up strong against the Lakers I'll be sick if the Suns sign him for the long term starting at six million or more.

I hope Larry Brown doesn't outfox himself... hiding Okur on the bench against the Lakers, for example. Maybe the best way to keep him is let him get lots of exposure...
 

Cheesebeef

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if this team - once again - goes out and gets a huge white stiff to plug in at Center I will scream - Okhur is the big prize? Ugh - I'll throw up if this is the case.
 

Chaplin

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I wouldn't mind having Okur on the team, the problem is that I DO mind about the amount of money we would have to pay him.
 
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George O'Brien

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Chaplin said:
I wouldn't mind having Okur on the team, the problem is that I DO mind about the amount of money we would have to pay him.

Exactly. The Free Press article was throwing around $6 to $8.5 million first year numbers. There is no way he is worth that much to the Suns.

With the Jazz deciding to let Ostertag walk, they can afford to give him those numbers without flinching. Tag got $8.5 million last year. Okur would almost certainly be more productive.

Greg Ostertag
Utah Jazz
Position: C
Height: 7-2 Weight: 280
College: Kansas '95
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 6.8
RPG 7.4
APG 1.6
SPG .38
BPG 1.78
FG% .476
FT% .579
3P% .000
MPG 27.6

Mehmet Okur
Detroit Pistons
Position: C
Height: 6-11 Weight: 249
From: Turkey
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 9.6
RPG 5.9
APG 1.0
SPG .51
BPG .89
FG% .463
FT% .775
3P% .375
MPG 22.3

Ostertag's advantage on rebounds is entirely based on playing more minutes.

Considering that Utah is likely to be $34 million under the cap, they certainly could afford more than the Suns.
 

elindholm

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I'm not sure Okur's advantage over Ostertag is all that great. If their minutes were the same, their rebounds would be right about the same.

Then, keep in mind that Ostertag is earning those minutes against centers in the Western Conference, whereas Okur (before the trade) was earning fewer minutes against weaker lineups.

And finally, based on those numbers, Ostertag is a much better shot blocker.

If I were thinking about which player I wanted for only a year or two, it would be a difficult decision, but I'd probably lean toward Ostertag.
 

Joe Mama

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Chaplin said:
I wouldn't mind having Okur on the team, the problem is that I DO mind about the amount of money we would have to pay him.

We might not agree on what the Suns should do with their draft pick, but I'm right there with you concerning Okur. He would be a nice acquisition. He certainly isn't worth three quarters of the room under the salary cap they have created. I really think that the Utah Jazz will end up with him or at least drive his price skyhigh.

I would rather they put the effort into coaching land be. He has under physical tools and size than Okur. I also think he has a better outside shot. He just need some good coaching on his defense and rebounding. The effort is definitely there though.

I would much rather that the Phoenix Suns invested in a center whose strength is defense there are a couple of those type of centers out there who can also knocked down a short jumper with some consistency (Mark Blount and Adonel Foyle).

Joe Mama
 

Goldfield

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I actully sort of like Ostertag...

He isnt great or anything, but he does a solid job.


I would much rather get Divac for a 2-3 years.


Our current starters score pleanty, we even have a Center prospect that can score in Lampe.

Give me a defending center plz!
 
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George O'Brien

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BEERZ said:
I actully sort of like Ostertag...

He isnt great or anything, but he does a solid job.

Near the end of the season, Tab was being benched in favor of Jarron Collins who averaged only 3.9 rpg for the season (21.4 minutes). Since Jarron is a free agent this summer and the Jazz were fighting to make the playoffs, this indicated how far Tag had fallen in Sloan's estimation.
I would much rather get Divac for a 2-3 years.

I switched my position on Divac as it became obvious that the Kings were going to spend what it would take to keep him. Sure, he might like to play with some fellow Serbs, but not enough to walk away from a much bigger deal than the Suns could give.

Our current starters score pleanty, we even have a Center prospect that can score in Lampe.

Give me a defending center plz!

I agree. I'm just not convinced that either Ostertag or Divac would answer that for an acceptable price.
 

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