http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/dr_z/03/31/draft/index.html
Here's the bit that interested me, the rest can be read through the link.
During the league meetings in Orlando I sat down for a deep-cover type of conversation with my favorite NFL executive. His first name is A. His last name is Personnel Man. We call him in print "A Personnel Man," because if you use his real name he won't talk to you anymore and then I won't be able to write this kind of column.
He doesn't like his name used because most of what he has to say is negative, or at least it is this year. I've never known him to gush, which is great because I hate gushing. He finds things wrong. So do I. I asked him what he thought of the unbridled riches available for free agents these days. He smiled because he liked this question.
"Too much money. Not enough players," he said.
"An agent told me," he added, "'You can't go by last year's contracts. Look at the way the cap went up.' I told him the cap went up but the players' ability didn't."
I told him I wanted to know who the top potential draft choices are. "I'm having trouble finding 10 elite ones," I said.
"Not easy this year," he said.
First, one must sort out the quarterbacks. We're assuming that Tennessee, in the No. 3 spot, will go for a QB. I've been told that the Titans' offensive coordinator, Norm Chow, who coached Matt Leinart at USC, lines them up in this order: Leinart, Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt, Vince Young of Texas. The rest of the staff is split between Leinart and Young at No. 1.
New Orleans, which drafts second, already has signed ex-Charger Drew Brees to a high-paying contract. "It's unrealistic to think that the Saints could draft a quarterback at No. 2 and tie up $40 or $50 million in guaranteed money for two players," our source says.
But someone always could trade into that spot for a QB. Or use it to leapfrog into the Texans' spot at No. 1, since it's no secret that Houston's coach, Gary Kubiak, wants to draft a runner, Reggie Bush. It would make a lot of sense for the Texans to move down one spot, provided they were sure that the new No. 1 team would draft a QB. Houston would get its guy, plus an extra draft. But Houston couldn't move lower than No. 2 for fear of losing Bush.
Young is slightly ahead of Cutler, behind Leinart. The stories of Young's supposed score of 6 in the Wonderlic IQ test are not true, we were told. Seven, and then 15 on a re-test, are the correct numbers.
"Is Leinart another Peyton Manning in 1998?" I asked my man. "The safest pick among the quarterbacks?"
"Except for one thing that makes me nervous about him," he said. "Manning had an intense work ethic on and off the field, and I don't sense it about Leinart, the lifting, etc. Of course that could change by the time camp starts."
I told you this guy was inclined to be negative. How about Young? Is it fair to say he's a young Randall Cunningham?
"Well, I never saw Cunningham in college," he said, "and the best person right now to ask about Randall's rookie year with the Eagles would be Ron Jaworski. He was his teammate then."
As the draft approaches, I'll talk to Jaworski.
OK, let's give away Bush, Young and Leinart to somebody in the first three picks. That leaves Cutler at No. 4 if the Jets would be interested. Which would mean that they re-signed their starter, Chad Pennington, they traded for Patrick Ramsey and then they would draft a third one, which would give them the trifecta. Hard to see that happening.
So here are a few potential top-10 names. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, the tackle for Virginia. That might not be a bad choice for New Orleans, either.
"A good player," my man says, "but not in the class of a Tony Boselli. I'd say more on the level of a Levi Jones."
It can be a mystifying position at times. The surest left tackle bet since Boselli was Robert Gallery of Iowa and look at him now, struggling at RT for the Raiders.
"The only thing I can think of," says our super-scout, "is that those Iowa tackles are so well coached, so well drilled, that their excellence of technique masks their athletic ability."
The second-best tackle projection is Winston Justice of USC. Potentially a top 10 selection?
"A risk," says my man. "Great ability, but his performance depended on which game you watched him in. He didn't play in 2004 and he absolutely should have stayed in school another year. He really would have helped himself. He has athletic ability, he'll look great in workouts, he's just inconsistent."
OK, I'll do it this way. I'll shoot out the names, followed by ***********'s capsule comments and hopefully we'll find a top 10 choice or two.
Ohio State LB A.J. Hawk and Maryland TE Vernon Davis:
"Both should be top 10. When's the last time you saw a tight end run in the 4.3s? I don't remember ever seeing one."
Jimmy Williams of Virginia Tech, supposedly the best cornerback:
"An enigma. Played much better in '04 than '05. More of a cover two corner. Maybe they could move him inside."
How about Max Jean-Gilles, the 355-pound Georgia guard, plus another serious jumbo, Haloti Ngata, the 338-pound Oregon DT?
"Jean-Gilles is a road grader type. When you see him live, he's more athletic than he looks on tape. But he's got a weight problem, and the percentage of guys who overcome that isn't good. Ngata is a man, a huge physical guy. If he wants to he can really stack things up at the point, but he didn't play hard all the time. There wasn't a lot of production. I'm afraid he's more hype than substance."
OK, here's a guy whose stock is soaring right now. He could be a safetyman or a corner projection. His combine speed was 4.34, which you seldom see for strong safeties. I'm talking about Michael Huff of Texas.
"Look, I'm really sorry to be so negative, but here's what I see here. I see a guy who has trained very hard to run the 40 at the combine. He runs it too effectively. Everybody's getting better at this speed thing. They're learning how to train for it very efficiently. The trick is not to get fooled by this. Huff is a guy who runs fast but doesn't play fast."
OK, Mr. A, could you please give me one sleeper, a guy who's not projected near the top of the board but might slip in?
"Ernie Sims, outside linebacker from Florida State. I see him listed as the fourth- or fifth-best linebacker on some charts. He's a lot better than that. An undersized guy with tremendous athletic ability."
Here's the bit that interested me, the rest can be read through the link.
During the league meetings in Orlando I sat down for a deep-cover type of conversation with my favorite NFL executive. His first name is A. His last name is Personnel Man. We call him in print "A Personnel Man," because if you use his real name he won't talk to you anymore and then I won't be able to write this kind of column.
He doesn't like his name used because most of what he has to say is negative, or at least it is this year. I've never known him to gush, which is great because I hate gushing. He finds things wrong. So do I. I asked him what he thought of the unbridled riches available for free agents these days. He smiled because he liked this question.
"Too much money. Not enough players," he said.
"An agent told me," he added, "'You can't go by last year's contracts. Look at the way the cap went up.' I told him the cap went up but the players' ability didn't."
I told him I wanted to know who the top potential draft choices are. "I'm having trouble finding 10 elite ones," I said.
"Not easy this year," he said.
First, one must sort out the quarterbacks. We're assuming that Tennessee, in the No. 3 spot, will go for a QB. I've been told that the Titans' offensive coordinator, Norm Chow, who coached Matt Leinart at USC, lines them up in this order: Leinart, Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt, Vince Young of Texas. The rest of the staff is split between Leinart and Young at No. 1.
New Orleans, which drafts second, already has signed ex-Charger Drew Brees to a high-paying contract. "It's unrealistic to think that the Saints could draft a quarterback at No. 2 and tie up $40 or $50 million in guaranteed money for two players," our source says.
But someone always could trade into that spot for a QB. Or use it to leapfrog into the Texans' spot at No. 1, since it's no secret that Houston's coach, Gary Kubiak, wants to draft a runner, Reggie Bush. It would make a lot of sense for the Texans to move down one spot, provided they were sure that the new No. 1 team would draft a QB. Houston would get its guy, plus an extra draft. But Houston couldn't move lower than No. 2 for fear of losing Bush.
Young is slightly ahead of Cutler, behind Leinart. The stories of Young's supposed score of 6 in the Wonderlic IQ test are not true, we were told. Seven, and then 15 on a re-test, are the correct numbers.
"Is Leinart another Peyton Manning in 1998?" I asked my man. "The safest pick among the quarterbacks?"
"Except for one thing that makes me nervous about him," he said. "Manning had an intense work ethic on and off the field, and I don't sense it about Leinart, the lifting, etc. Of course that could change by the time camp starts."
I told you this guy was inclined to be negative. How about Young? Is it fair to say he's a young Randall Cunningham?
"Well, I never saw Cunningham in college," he said, "and the best person right now to ask about Randall's rookie year with the Eagles would be Ron Jaworski. He was his teammate then."
As the draft approaches, I'll talk to Jaworski.
OK, let's give away Bush, Young and Leinart to somebody in the first three picks. That leaves Cutler at No. 4 if the Jets would be interested. Which would mean that they re-signed their starter, Chad Pennington, they traded for Patrick Ramsey and then they would draft a third one, which would give them the trifecta. Hard to see that happening.
So here are a few potential top-10 names. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, the tackle for Virginia. That might not be a bad choice for New Orleans, either.
"A good player," my man says, "but not in the class of a Tony Boselli. I'd say more on the level of a Levi Jones."
It can be a mystifying position at times. The surest left tackle bet since Boselli was Robert Gallery of Iowa and look at him now, struggling at RT for the Raiders.
"The only thing I can think of," says our super-scout, "is that those Iowa tackles are so well coached, so well drilled, that their excellence of technique masks their athletic ability."
The second-best tackle projection is Winston Justice of USC. Potentially a top 10 selection?
"A risk," says my man. "Great ability, but his performance depended on which game you watched him in. He didn't play in 2004 and he absolutely should have stayed in school another year. He really would have helped himself. He has athletic ability, he'll look great in workouts, he's just inconsistent."
OK, I'll do it this way. I'll shoot out the names, followed by ***********'s capsule comments and hopefully we'll find a top 10 choice or two.
Ohio State LB A.J. Hawk and Maryland TE Vernon Davis:
"Both should be top 10. When's the last time you saw a tight end run in the 4.3s? I don't remember ever seeing one."
Jimmy Williams of Virginia Tech, supposedly the best cornerback:
"An enigma. Played much better in '04 than '05. More of a cover two corner. Maybe they could move him inside."
How about Max Jean-Gilles, the 355-pound Georgia guard, plus another serious jumbo, Haloti Ngata, the 338-pound Oregon DT?
"Jean-Gilles is a road grader type. When you see him live, he's more athletic than he looks on tape. But he's got a weight problem, and the percentage of guys who overcome that isn't good. Ngata is a man, a huge physical guy. If he wants to he can really stack things up at the point, but he didn't play hard all the time. There wasn't a lot of production. I'm afraid he's more hype than substance."
OK, here's a guy whose stock is soaring right now. He could be a safetyman or a corner projection. His combine speed was 4.34, which you seldom see for strong safeties. I'm talking about Michael Huff of Texas.
"Look, I'm really sorry to be so negative, but here's what I see here. I see a guy who has trained very hard to run the 40 at the combine. He runs it too effectively. Everybody's getting better at this speed thing. They're learning how to train for it very efficiently. The trick is not to get fooled by this. Huff is a guy who runs fast but doesn't play fast."
OK, Mr. A, could you please give me one sleeper, a guy who's not projected near the top of the board but might slip in?
"Ernie Sims, outside linebacker from Florida State. I see him listed as the fourth- or fifth-best linebacker on some charts. He's a lot better than that. An undersized guy with tremendous athletic ability."
Oh yeah I forgot Ross K in the rotation too. Will that be enough though? Can we improve it by adding one in the draft and letting them fight it out to see who sticks?
