Draft Considerations

[Mitch]

* Yesterday on NFL Network, Heath Evans made what I thought was a very compelling argument that DE Solomon Thomas is a better player than DE Myles Garrett. I love Thomas' motor, his burst off the ball and his leadership. While I see Garrett's freakish physical skills, his game tapes make me leery of him as a top 10 pick. Thomas' game tapes and a constant conformation of non-stop effort and production.

* In listening to Steve Keim yesterday, he mentioned two trade spots: moving up to #9 (CIN) or down to #18 (TEN). He said that they should be able to get a player they really like at #13 in that they have very high grades on the top 13 players on their board. So, why then trade up?

I could see five possible targets: SS Jamal Adams, FS Malik Hooker and DE Jonathan Allen, RB/WR/PR Christian McCaffrey and TE O.J. Howard. Each one of these players has unique talents. To move up to #9 (4 spots), it most certainly will require giving up the #13 and #77 picks, plus possibly a 2018 draft pick. I could make a strong case for Adams, Hooker, Allen, McCaffrey and Howard, and I think that if the Cardinals do move up, that they will try to move down from #45 to get back their third rounder or at least add another 4th rounder.

In moving down to #18, the Cardinals could expect to add the Titans' 3rd round pick #72. But this will only happen if all of the top 5 mentioned players above are off the board. Otherwise they stay at #13 and make the selection. If they stay, judging by what Steve Keim said about LBs Reuben Foster and Haason Reddick, I think one of them will be the pick.

If they move down to #18, the player who might be the perfect fit is CB Kevin King of Washington (if Foster and Reddick are off the board). The Cardinals like tall, fast and athletic CBs and King is made to order.

* Player Similarities:

CB Kevin King (CB Richard Sherman/Marcus Cooper)
SS Marcus Maye (SS Tony Jefferson)
FS Justin Evans (FS D.J. Swearinger)
FS Josh Jones (FS Duron Harmon)
FS Budda Baker (S Tyrann Mathieu)

* I listed the safeties above because pick #45 should be a hot spot to snag a starting caliber safety, a decision made imminent by the departures of Jefferson and Swearinger.

* My own feeling is -- if the Cardinals do not like any of the QBs enough to commit their #13 pick to one of them, then wait to draft a QB next year. The QB who fits BA's QB profile the best is DeShone Kizer of Notre Dame. I spent a couple of hours this morning watching Gruden's Camp and Mooch's chalk talk with Kizer, Kizer vs. Ohio St. in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, Kizer versus Texas 2016, Kizer versus Michigan St. 2016. Here are my takeaways:

Kizer has all the physical tools---the size (6-4, 237), the strength, the mobility the arm strength, the football IQ, the desire and hunger. He crushed the interviews with Gruden and Mariucci. Very quick on the take, very focused, very sharp mentally. His performance in 2015 had him headed toward being a top 5 pick in 2017 or 2018. However, in 2016, it was clear (at least to me) that Kizer missed his go-to WR Will Fuller (as did the rest of the offense). Compounding that reality was the Irish's offensive line was uncharacteristically porous. This caused Kizer to become more deliberate and more prone to having to go into scramble mode. He rushed some throws which led to interceptions, and it seemed the offense was always trying to rally from behind. Curiously, he looked a lot like Carson Palmer in 2016, coming off a much more stellar campaign in 2015.

I think Kizer would be a very good fit in Arizona. He is very bright...a super fast learner (the way he improved his footwork from the Combine to his Pro Day was very impressive)...and the physical skills are at times eye-popping.

Would I use the #13 pick on him?

The one stat that is making a difference for me is that Kizer, despite his struggles in 2016, led the nation in QB play action efficiency -- this is something that Carson Palmer is very good at in AZ, especially now that David Johnson is making other teams bring up their SS into the box.

So, my answer is I feel very tempted to say yes to Kizer at #13.

Would I prefer him over Patrick Mahomes?

That is such a tough call, primarily because of the uncertainty involving how many more years BA has as HC in AZ. I think Kizer is a better fit for BA's offense than Mahomes. But, if let's say our next HC is someone like Mike McCarthy or Tom Clements of the Packers, I think Mahomes could be a superstar. Whatever team drafts Mahomes better be prepared to cater their offense around his strengths.

 

[juza76]

mitch sometimes i just think about how much important is your presence in this forum

 

[MadCardDisease]

*

I could see five possible targets: SS Jamal Adams, FS Malik Hooker and DE Jonathan Allen, RB/WR/PR Christian McCaffrey and TE O.J. Howard. Each one of these players has unique talents. To move up to #9 (4 spots), it most certainly will require giving up the #13 and #77 picks, plus possibly a 2018 draft pick. I could make a strong case for Adams, Hooker, Allen, McCaffrey and Howard, and I think that if the Cardinals do move up, that they will try to move down from #45 to get back their third rounder or at least add another 4th rounder.

I don't see the Cardinals trading up for a Safety, RB or TE. Especially with how much depth there is at all of those positions in this years drat. It just doesn't make any sense.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Kizer:

2016 Completion %: 58.7%
Has thrown an interception in 15 of 23 starts
Doesn't read through progressions
As soon as the pocket collapses he looks to run, or gets sacked...a lot...
Doesn't look off the safety
Was benched vs Stanford
Takes sacks even when he has ample time in the pocket, because he doesn't read the defense
Doesn't show much touch on the ball, and doesn't throw his receivers open

In any other draft he would not be considered for the 1st round. Project QB, sure. But you don't take project QB's in the 1st.

 

[Mitch]

I don't see the Cardinals trading up for a Safety, RB or TE. Especially with how much depth there is at all of those positions in this years drat. It just doesn't make any sense.

* Jamal Adams---4.3 speed and is an alpha dog SS. There is no safety in this draft class that can compare to him.

* Malik Hooker---6-2, 209, as fast and rangy and ball hawkish as any FS prospect I have seen in years. With him behind the CBs and a goos pass rush, the Cardinals could lead the league in takeaways.

* Jonathan Allen---best interior pass rusher in the draft, bar none.

* Christian McCaffrey---creates instant problems for DCs and ST coordinators. LBers can't cover him, neither could most SSs. You have to put a good CB on him, but that means opening up bigger holes for David Johnson. Then the Cardinals can flip Johnson and McCaffrey and DCs have to deal with Johnson as a WR. These are the kind of mismatch advantages that win close games.

* O.J. Howard---forget about Mike Williams or Corey Davis. This is the guy to take Fitz's spot as a flex TE. He's a very good blocker and he's a rare breed of TE who is an automatic deep threat, up the seams and up the sidelines.

These 5 guys are special and worth making a move for -- you won't find players like these later in this draft or even next year.

 

[Mitch]

Kizer:

2016 Completion %: 58.7%
Has thrown an interception in 15 of 23 starts
Doesn't read through progressions
As soon as the pocket collapses he looks to run, or gets sacked...a lot...
Doesn't look off the safety
Was benched vs Stanford
Takes sacks even when he has ample time in the pocket, because he doesn't read the defense
Doesn't show much touch on the ball, and doesn't throw his receivers open

In any other draft he would not be considered for the 1st round. Project QB, sure. But you don't take project QB's in the 1st.

There are two sides to every coin:

http://www.uhnd.com/nfl-irish/pittsburgh-steelers-perfect-fit-notre-dames-deshone-kizer-36266/

 

[BleedRed]

I would be pumped if we moved up to get Hooker or Adams. In normal years it would be questionable to move up for a safety in the top 10, but both of these guys are special players and would be huge for our defense.

 

[Mitch]

I would be pumped if we moved up to get Hooker or Adams. In normal years it would be questionable to move up for a safety in the top 10, but both of these guys are special players and would be huge for our defense.

And it would put an end to the mystery as to why they didn't re-sign Jefferson or Swearinger. Why not go and get someone better.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I don't see the Cardinals trading up for a Safety, RB or TE. Especially with how much depth there is at all of those positions in this years drat. It just doesn't make any sense.

It does if you do not think of the position of the player, just the skill.

Malik Hooker, and Jamal Adams are special players. For me, Hooker is a very special player, he was a top pick before the combine, during, and after, AND is currently hurt. Just tells you his talent.

While I do not see the value in McCaffery or Howard for the Cardinals, they are both very special talents as well........and I am tipping my cap to the general opinion on McCaffery since I do not see what is so special about him, but the point still remains.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

There are two sides to every coin:

http://www.uhnd.com/nfl-irish/pittsburgh-steelers-perfect-fit-notre-dames-deshone-kizer-36266/

I'd take a flyer on him in the 2nd round, sure, but not the top half of the 1st. Cardinals have too many holes to gamble on Logan Thomas 2.0.

 

[MadCardDisease]

* Jamal Adams---4.3 speed and is an alpha dog SS. There is no safety in this draft class that can compare to him.

* Malik Hooker---6-2, 209, as fast and rangy and ball hawkish as any FS prospect I have seen in years. With him behind the CBs and a goos pass rush, the Cardinals could lead the league in takeaways.

* Jonathan Allen---best interior pass rusher in the draft, bar none.

* Christian McCaffrey---creates instant problems for DCs and ST coordinators. LBers can't cover him, neither could most SSs. You have to put a good CB on him, but that means opening up bigger holes for David Johnson. Then the Cardinals can flip Johnson and McCaffrey and DCs have to deal with Johnson as a WR. These are the kind of mismatch advantages that win close games.

* O.J. Howard---forget about Mike Williams or Corey Davis. This is the guy to take Fitz's spot as a flex TE. He's a very good blocker and he's a rare breed of TE who is an automatic deep threat, up the seams and up the sidelines.

These 5 guys are special and worth making a move for -- you won't find players like these later in this draft or even next year.

In a deep draft like this I hate Hate HATE the idea of giving up a 3rd rounder to move up. Especially for positions where there is so much quality depth. The only reason you move up is to grab a stud pass rusher or a Franchise QB. I would only consider trading up for a player like Solomon Thomas if for some reason he drops for something like an early run on QBs.

I'd much rather move back to #18 and add the #69 overall pick from the Titans. That's almost like adding another 2nd rounder especially with how deep this draft is.

 

[JeffGollin]

Kizer:

2016 Completion %: 58.7%
Has thrown an interception in 15 of 23 starts
Doesn't read through progressions
As soon as the pocket collapses he looks to run, or gets sacked...a lot...
Doesn't look off the safety
Was benched vs Stanford
Takes sacks even when he has ample time in the pocket, because he doesn't read the defense
Doesn't show much touch on the ball, and doesn't throw his receivers open

In any other draft he would not be considered for the 1st round. Project QB, sure. But you don't take project QB's in the 1st.

Collingsworth has the Cards moving up into the. 1st round to around #25 to draft Kizer.

One thing I don't like about Chris' mock is our drafting Humphrey at #13 (Right position/wrong playing style).

 

[JeffGollin]

Cards Underground reviews the BA and Sk predraft presser. A case was made for bringing in a physical dawg to set the tone for the defense (Foster), the value of versatility in the Cardinal back 8 (including the value in coverage of any of the 3 safeties.

A good listen.

 

[Snakester]

Very interesting thoughts Mitch. Out of the list of guys moving up to 9 I would take Malik Hooker. Would also take Solomon Thomas or Mitch Trubisky if they were there. Trading down to 18 I'm thinking Cory Davis, Hasson Reddick, Pat Mahomes.

Taking a CB at 13 makes a lot of sense as well. Foster would also be a great pick at 13.

 

[WildBB]

Thanks for the write up on Kizer and SK's comments on the draft. Many of his problems last year are indeed with the loss of his WR's and star LT and other linemen. The hurricane game they played did him no favors for his completion percentage. He indeed played in a pro style system and can be brought along slowly this coming season. My hope is that they can swing the trade with the Titans and land their QB.

 

[WildBB]

Don't know if Foster is worth trading up for. He's got some physical issues that would give him some durability concerns. He's also mtl a 5 yr. and out player.

 

[Chopper0080]

You do not trade up in the first round for a player who does not play the QB position. End of discussion.

 

[Mitch]

You do not trade up in the first round for a player who does not play the QB position. End of discussion.

Hmmm...Julio Jones...start of discussion.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Great stuff, Mitch. Very well thought out. My counterpoints:

1. I've read a lot from you on McCaffrey, and it seems he will go quite high. So I understand why you like him so much. But not for us, IMO. You have referenced how good he will be with David Johnson, because of the element of surprise. I counter that with this: When they are both in the game, there is NO real element of surprise. They are not both going to be in the backfield (except for maybe a wildcat which seems to work just fine with Kerwin) when they are on the field. The defense is going to immediately know one of them will line up at Receiver. So the Defense can adjust their personnel accordingly. And if they both line up at Receiver with no RBs in the formation, that's no different that if you sent out David Johnson and an actual receiver. Essentially, DJ is always the one who could line up at both positions.

2. I have read Kevin King is the most overrated CB in the draft.

3. Many are suggesting a trade up to late Round 1. Counterpoint to this concept of the First Round being so much better than the second due to the 5th year option. Its overrated. The 5th year option for QB this year is $19M+, plus you have to guarantee it a year ahead of time. The Franchise tag for QB is a little over $21M. So it only cost an extra $2M to Franchise the 2nd Round QB in Year 5 rather than use the 5th Year Option on the 1st Round QB. (I know Cousins is making more that $21M on his tag, but that's because it's his Second Tag.)

4. I do believe we are going to move up somewhere, using a 3rd and/or 4th next year, since we are going to recoup those due to the loss of Campbell and Jefferson. I didn't hear Keim's exact quote, but I think he was using #9 and #18 as examples, not as exact predictions. He also said that discussions about setting those parameters don't generally happen until a day or two before the draft.

 

[juza76]

Hmmm...Julio Jones...start of discussion.

and i dont see julius jones around

 

[Cardiac]

I agree with Vermont that SK was using #9 & #18 as examples. Why would SK telegraph his exact intentions so another team can trade up to #8 or #17 or simply outbid us for the #9 & #18?

I also believe like every year SK is sending the message that he is willing to be a trade partner but he isn't desperate to do so.

As much as I would love Adams or Hooker I'm not trading up for them because there is very good talent that can be had at the Safety position in rounds 2 through 4.

Not trading up for a RB no matter who it is.

If they trade up for a QB I will

 

[THESMEL]

* Jamal Adams---4.3 speed and is an alpha dog SS. There is no safety in this draft class that can compare to him.

* Malik Hooker---6-2, 209, as fast and rangy and ball hawkish as any FS prospect I have seen in years. With him behind the CBs and a goos pass rush, the Cardinals could lead the league in takeaways.

* Jonathan Allen---best interior pass rusher in the draft, bar none.

* Christian McCaffrey---creates instant problems for DCs and ST coordinators. LBers can't cover him, neither could most SSs. You have to put a good CB on him, but that means opening up bigger holes for David Johnson. Then the Cardinals can flip Johnson and McCaffrey and DCs have to deal with Johnson as a WR. These are the kind of mismatch advantages that win close games.

* O.J. Howard---forget about Mike Williams or Corey Davis. This is the guy to take Fitz's spot as a flex TE. He's a very good blocker and he's a rare breed of TE who is an automatic deep threat, up the seams and up the sidelines.

These 5 guys are special and worth making a move for -- you won't find players like these later in this draft or even next year.

I don't agree and usually do with mitch- I take mike Williams or Corey davis over any of these players at 13 as bpa- I feel one had to stretch and dance to make any of these players as BPA - maybe Allen- the QBs are all pretty even in my grade - but not BPA at 13 - they are a reach - I'm still a BPA guy- regardless of need in the first round

 

[JeffGollin]

I don't agree and usually do with mitch- I take mike Williams or Corey davis over any of these players at 13 as bpa- I feel one had to stretch and dance to make any of these players as BPA - maybe Allen- the QBs are all pretty even in my grade - but not BPA at 13 - they are a reach - I'm still a BPA guy- regardless of need in the first round

Adams, Hooker, Allen, M Williams or C Davis are all legit BPA's at #13 as are Foster and possibly Riddick. We also happen to need help at S, WR and ILB. (CB too, except I don't like any corners in my top 13.

One person's BPA is another one's MPA (Meh Player Available)

 

[Chopper0080]

Hmmm...Julio Jones...start of discussion.

Not worth it. Falcon scored 40+ points this year twice with him having below 50 yards both times. Without Matt Ryan he is a non factor. He makes the offense better, but is a completely dependant player.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk