Draft Possibility: Texans Trade for Lamar

[Stout]

One draft possibility being tossed about is who might trade for Lamar Jackson on draft day. One team not mentioned, that I've seen, is the Houston Texans. As one poster opined, Houston's moves in the offseason lend one to believe they think they may just be a QB away from competing. Right or wrong, it's possible their FO is thinking this way. If so, and if they wanted a QB at #2 anyway, it's possible they would move for LJ. They may gamble that next year's pick won't be very high, or they may convince themselves he's worth it no matter the cost.

If a trade like this somehow happened, I don't see it having a negative effect on the Card's draft. Baltimore would likely be going QB with pick #2.

Thoughts, opinions? It's possible I'm crazy or off the mark, but it's just a thought.

 

[Zalixar]

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[SECTION 11]

He’s definitely going to be a wild card. Some team is going to sign him and some other team is going to get hosed on draft day because of it. That of course will be us. We just can’t keep the sand out of our Vaseline.

 

[bankybruce]

Serious question, if a team signs Jackson after the draft, they lose 2024 and 2025 1st round draft picks.

If so, Houston could tell Baltimore they are taking Anderson and will sign Jackson to a fully guaranteed deal after the draft. That would leave Baltimore without a QB and be forced to take a single 1st for him in a trade this year. Houston still has the #12 and can still get a decent edge rusher.

 

[Harry]

Can’t see them paying that price combined with expected guaranteed salary!

 

[Fitz4Ever]

My question is do the Texans even have to give up #2 overall? Is the tag language that ANY 2 first round picks can be sent to the ravens? If I was Houston I would send them #12 and the 24 1st rounder....get Anderson and Jackson

 

[bankybruce]

Can’t see them paying that price combined with expected guaranteed salary!

Why? They got 3 1st round picks for Watson. So, if Houston signed Jackson today, they still have a 1st Rounder each of the next two years after losing 2 first rounders for signing Jackson.

 

[bankybruce]

My question is do the Texans even have to give up #2 overall? Is the tag language that ANY 2 first round picks can be sent to the ravens? If I was Houston I would send them #12 and the 24 1st rounder....get Anderson and Jackson

Interesting thought. I looked it up and honestly the verbiage is vague, so I have no clue.

"Should it decide not to, the player's original team shall be entitled to draft-choice compensation equivalent to two first-round picks."

You might be on to something.

 

[bankybruce]

Can you imagine if Houston does land Jackson using Clevelands picks.

Houston
Lamar Jackson
2022 1st Round Pick
2023 3rd Round Pick
2024 4th Round Pick

Texans
Deshaun Watson
2024 5th Round Pick

 

[az jam]

The owners may be in collusion with each other not to sign Jackson as he wants a guaranteed contract. They are all upset that Cleveland did it with Watson.
Jackson is dumb not to have an agent.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

My question is do the Texans even have to give up #2 overall? Is the tag language that ANY 2 first round picks can be sent to the ravens? If I was Houston I would send them #12 and the 24 1st rounder....get Anderson and Jackson

They can work out a trade instead of the two first round picks, could be more or less.

It doesn't need to be two first round picks this year either.

 

[Krangodnzr]

@Stout Lance Zierlein has the Colts trading for Lamar Jackson which also makes a ton of sense. Shane Steichen has experience with using a mobile QB. The Colts also have a fairly stable OL, RB, and WRs. They literally could be competitive next season with Lamar Jackson.

 

[cardpa]

A couple of things working here, first Jackson wants a fully guaranteed contract so it's doubtful any team interested in him would be willing to pony up North of $40 million a year despite what Cleveland did with Watson. Baltimore still has the right to match whatever Jackson gets offered to retain his services. It may be Baltimore is betting that no team is willing to write a fully guaranteed contract (what Watson got) for Jackson that even approaches $40 million per year. I wonder where the tipping point is for Baltimore? Let's say Houston offers Jackson a 5 year, $180-200 million ($36-40 per year) fully guaranteed. Does Baltimore match or do they take the two first rounders? If no one offers a contract to Jackson, Baltimore pays him $32 million on the non exclusive tag.

Jackson has missed 10 games the last two seasons and his stats have been pretty horizontal his entire career so there is probably little room for improvement and he is probably at his ceiling.

 

[Krangodnzr]

A couple of things working here, first Jackson wants a fully guaranteed contract so it's doubtful any team interested in him would be willing to pony up North of $40 million a year despite what Cleveland did with Watson. Baltimore still has the right to match whatever Jackson gets offered to retain his services. It may be Baltimore is betting that no team is willing to write a fully guaranteed contract (what Watson got) for Jackson that even approaches $40 million per year. I wonder where the tipping point is for Baltimore? Let's say Houston offers Jackson a 5 year, $180-200 million ($36-40 per year) fully guaranteed. Does Baltimore match or do they take the two first rounders? If no one offers a contract to Jackson, Baltimore pays him $32 million on the non exclusive tag.

Jackson has missed 10 games the last two seasons and his stats have been pretty horizontal his entire career so there is probably little room for improvement and he is probably at his ceiling.

Jackson has publicly stated he doesn't want a fully guaranteed contract.

 

[Shane]

Jackson has publicly stated he doesn't want a fully guaranteed contract.

Ehh hard to believe when he was offered 135 million guaranteed and 240 million Total and turned it down. We could be talking semantics. He may be demanding 200+ guaranteed but technically not “fully guaranteed”

 

[unseenaz]

If he's traded, I have my money on the Colts

 

[BirdGangThing]

The Ravens likely have some sort of contingency plan in place for Lamar's imminent departure, dude didn't just burn that bridge he blew it up and even thanked the fans afterwards for coming out

So yeah I think Baltimore would entertain a trade consisting of this year's #2 pick (and a whole lot more). But I also wouldn't be surprised if they used the #2 to select Will Anderson lol and wait for next year's draft to select a qbotf

 

[Fitz4Ever]

They can work out a trade instead of the two first round picks, could be more or less.

It doesn't need to be two first round picks this year either.

But my understanding is that as long as the Texans made him and offer that was not matched by the Ravens, that they would be required to send 2 first round picks as compensation. The two picks would then be the Texans choice? It seems like the rule is pretty vague, and I know they likelihood would be that the teams would work out a deal....

BUT...lets say the Ravens go "We are not trading you to the texans no matter what".....they would essectially be powerless to stop it as long as they declined to match the offer and received some sort of 2 1st round pick package?

Could the Texans offer him 250 mill gaurenteed, #12 pick and a 1st rounder in 2025?

 

[kerouac9]

The Ravens likely have some sort of contingency plan in place for Lamar's imminent departure, dude didn't just burn that bridge he blew it up and even thanked the fans afterwards for coming out

So yeah I think Baltimore would entertain a trade consisting of this year's #2 pick (and a whole lot more). But I also wouldn't be surprised if they used the #2 to select Will Anderson lol and wait for next year's draft to select a qbotf

I wouldn’t give more than the #2 overall pick and a player for Lamar, and I’m a big fan.

That pick is valuable because it’s assured. You would’ve traded last year’s first (used on Hollywood) for Seattles 2023 first. Everyone expected them to tank.

Instead they almost made the playoffs. It’s too easy to move from bad to mediocre in the NFL. Winning five games or fewer is a choice.

That’s why the value of a future pick on Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart is the last pick in that round.

 

[BirdGangThing]

I wouldn’t give more than the #2 overall pick and a player for Lamar, and I’m a big fan.

That pick is valuable because it’s assured. You would’ve traded last year’s first (used on Hollywood) for Seattles 2023 first. Everyone expected them to tank.

Instead they almost made the playoffs. It’s too easy to move from bad to mediocre in the NFL. Winning five games or fewer is a choice.

That’s why the value of a future pick on Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart is the last pick in that round.

If the Ravens only get a single first round pick (even if it's the guaranteed #2) for an MVP caliber QB still in his twenties - the Ravens got took

 

[Krangodnzr]

If the Ravens only get a single first round pick (even if it's the guaranteed #2) for an MVP caliber QB still in his twenties - the Ravens got took

We know that Lamar works in Baltimore. We also know that the is hurt pretty much every year.

How long can Lamar sustain his level of play?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

But my understanding is that as long as the Texans made him and offer that was not matched by the Ravens, that they would be required to send 2 first round picks as compensation. The two picks would then be the Texans choice? It seems like the rule is pretty vague, and I know they likelihood would be that the teams would work out a deal....

BUT...lets say the Ravens go "We are not trading you to the texans no matter what".....they would essectially be powerless to stop it as long as they declined to match the offer and received some sort of 2 1st round pick package?

Could the Texans offer him 250 mill gaurenteed, #12 pick and a 1st rounder in 2025?

That is correct.

 

[Stout]

Jackson has publicly stated he doesn't want a fully guaranteed contract.

Except he followed it up with he just wants more guaranteed money than Watson, which is laughable.

 

[Fitz4Ever]

Except he followed it up with he just wants more guaranteed money than Watson, which is laughable.

Only because that was a stupid deal by the Browns. Jackson is way better, has accomplished more, and has WAY less off-field baggage than Watson. Jackson you could argue actually DESERVES a fully guaranteed contract with the way he plays.

 

[GatorAZ]

The team that screwed up not going after Lamar was Carolina. Trade that same haul of picks for the #1 pick for Lamar and keep DJ Moore. They have the cap space and he’d clearly be the best QB in that division.