Drafting a good QB

[CardsSunsDbacks]

So I was a very big advocate of drafting a QB in the 1st or second round and then I did some poking around and noticed that drafting a QB early in a weak QB draft is a bad idea. So I compiled a list of every good QB drafted from 2000 to 2010 and what round they were drafted to get some sort of idea as to how often a QB succeeds in the NFL. Also some of the names on this list may have only had 1-2 good seasons and haven't had one since.

2000

Brady, Bulger both 6th

2001

Vick 1st, Brees 2nd

2002

none

2003

Palmer 1st

2004

Eli 1st, Rivers 1st, Big Ben 1st, Schaub 3rd

2005

Alex Smith 1st, Rodgers 1st, Campbell 1st, Orton 4th, Cassel 7th, Fitzpatrick 7th

2006

Cutler 1st

2007

none

2008

Ryan 1st, Flacco 1st

2009

Stafford 1st, Sanchez 1st, Freeman 1st

2010

Bradford 1st

2004 and 2005 were by far the best drafts for getting "really good" QBs and some of these years had one or less good QBs.

Add: I didn't use the last 2 drafts because there is still a very solid chance that some of the QBs drafted in the last 2 drafts still have plenty of time to be good QBs but maybe haven't had a true shot at starting yet.

Also I would still draft Geno Smith if he is there at #7, but I would personally be very wary of drafting any other QB in the 1st or 2nd.

 

[WildBB]

Sometimes it's not just the prospects but the need has to line up.

Teams keep starters for as long as they can before needing to find a new one. After that it can be a drawn out process finding a successful one.

I'd be up for giving Gabbert a second life now. He still has as much upside as most of the rookie class, imo. Depends on what the new coach is looking for however though.

 

[sportznutt]

90% of the QB's on this list were significantly better than our cumulative effort this season.

 

[sportznutt]

Sometimes it's not just the prospects but the need has to line up.

Teams keep starters for as long as they can before needing to find a new one. After that it can be a drawn out process finding a successful one.

I'd be up for giving Gabbert a second life now. He still has as much upside as most of the rookie class, imo. Depends on what the new coach is looking for however though.

I'm a fan of his too.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

90% of the QB's on this list were significantly better than our cumulative effort this season.

I hope so since this is a list of the successful QBs drafted.

 

[sportznutt]

Now, did these QB's go where they were projected to go (round-wise)? If so, I wouldn't be against taking a QB early.

 

[Jetstream Green]

It seems every year, no matter how they rank the QB class, there are at least two guys that can be starters. Right system, right coach, right players around a young guy plays an important part but there is always a guy there. I hope we find that guy regardless of the round taken

 

[desertdawg]

What's funny to me is how some folks in here say Geno Smith would be a bad pick with our 7 spot. When Andy Reid takes Geno first off the board, I think it will put that opinion to rest. What is all this "There's not one QB in this class" hoopla? It's like the saying of this draft. I bet you there's a couple keepers, maybe three but I'm thinking two. We gotta get the Whiz out of our eyes, and realize we just gotta keep Picking QBs in the first round or two each year until we hit paydirt because aint nobody giving up the type of guy we're looking for.

I missed the part where fact becomes fact before these QBs careers even start. Nothing is written in stone, evaluating talent just becomes that much more imprtant.

 

[NashDishesDimes]

I'm a fan of his too.

If thr Cards could scoop up Gabbert for a 5th id be all for it. I was a fan of his coming out.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Now, did these QB's go where they were projected to go (round-wise)? If so, I wouldn't be against taking a QB early.

Not sure, but as far as I know Geno is the only QB ranked in the overall top 30 on just about any ranking that I have seen.

 

[desertdawg]

Whiz is gone, no more QBs past the third round, for the love of all that is redbird!!!

 

[Jetstream Green]

why give up anything for Gabbert, a Weeden or a Cousins. This dang organization needs to FINALLY just draft a guy themselves that can get the job done AND DO THEIR JOB EVALUATING TALENT!

 

[WildBB]

What's funny to me is how some folks in here say Geno Smith would be a pick with our 7 spot. When Andy Reid takes Geno first off the board, I think it will put that opinion to rest. What is all this "There's not one QB in this class" hoopla? It's like the saying of this draft. I bet you there's a couple keepers, maybe three but I'm thinking two. We gotta get the Whiz out of our eyes, and realize we just gotta keep Picking QBs in the first round or two each year until we hit paydirt because aint nobody giving up the type of guy we're looking for.

I missed the part where fact becomes fact before these QBs careers even start. Nothing is written in stone, evaluating talent just becomes that much more imprtant.

It's just as important to evaluate a QB who another franchise has given up on. For one reason or another the fit wasn't right. And yes they do become available every so often. Gabbert and Sanchez come to mind right now as needing changes of scenery badly. At least as backups for now. I can remember when Warner was signed as one.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

What's funny to me is how some folks in here say Geno Smith would be a bad pick with our 7 spot. When Andy Reid takes Geno first off the board, I think it will put that opinion to rest. What is all this "There's not one QB in this class" hoopla? It's like the saying of this draft. I bet you there's a couple keepers, maybe three but I'm thinking two. We gotta get the Whiz out of our eyes, and realize we just gotta keep Picking QBs in the first round or two each year until we hit paydirt because aint nobody giving up the type of guy we're looking for.

I missed the part where fact becomes fact before these QBs careers even start. Nothing is written in stone, evaluating talent just becomes that much more imprtant.

I say that he would be our pick at 7 if he is there, but I certainly don't expect that he will be. That being said I wouldn't be upset if they drafted one of the other QBs in the second round, but considering this is widely considered to be a weak draft so odds are you could get a QB in the 3rd or 4th rounds that are just as good as the ones that go off the board in the first 2 rounds.

 

[WildBB]

why give up anything for Gabbert, a Weeden or a Cousins. This dang organization needs to FINALLY just draft a guy themselves that can get the job done AND DO THEIR JOB EVALUATING TALENT!

It's still always a roll of the dice. But I do expect them to sign a vet and draft a rookie this off season.

 

[WildBB]

I say that he would be our pick at 7 if he is there, but I certainly don't expect that he will be. That being said I wouldn't be upset if they drafted one of the other QBs in the second round, but considering this is widely considered to be a weak draft so odds are you could get a QB in the 3rd or 4th rounds that are just as good as the ones that go off the board in the first 2 rounds.

Maybe not; most of the level 2 tier QB's should be gone by the top of the 3rd Rd. And then you don't know who the left over will be.

But Washington drafted two last yr. even after picking Griffen. If you pick one in the 2nd and are pleasantly surprised one is there who you considered in the 2nd and he's there in the 3rd, why not. Best man wins. Make it a competition.

 

[desertdawg]

It's just as important to evaluate a QB who another franchise has given up on. For one reason or another the fit wasn't right. And yes they do become available every so often. Gabbert and Sanchez come to mind right now as needing changes of scenery badly. At least as backups for now. I can remember when Warner was signed as one.

This is gonna sound freaky for a minute, but bare with me. Warner is the worst thing to go by when coming up with a successful QB philosaphy. We are talking fluke when it comes to the odds. It will most likely not happen to the same team like that again. Just not a good model to go off of, and Whiz ruined his chances here with that type of mindset IMO.

Peyton drafted by Colts, Brady New England (kinda crazy case), Rodgers GB, Eli NY, Rothturdberger Pitt.... those guys seem to win all the Superbowls of late. Did the Saints draft Breezy? I forget but we do see a trend here?

 

[JeffGollin]

How about also including in italics the QB's drafted in each year who didn't work out so good.

There are so many different variables - both specific to the mental, emotional and physical attributes of each player and external factors having to do with supporting cast, offensive system, coaches and personal lives that it's virtually impossible IMO to 100% predict who will be a successful pro QB and who won't. Add to this Attribute A which might be used to compensate for Weakness B and things get even more complex.

Bottom line - charts might be helpful but they're not and end-all.

 

[sportznutt]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

 

[sportznutt]

Interesting write up on Gabbert here:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/28/n-f-l-draft-blaine-gabbert-top-ranked-quarterback/

The way he delivers the ball on the move or under pressure reminds me a lot of Brett Favre. He has the kind of trigger release at the last second, and his feet move very much like Farve on these types of plays.

Gabbert climbs the pocket away from pressure and keeps his eyes downfield while keeping his body in a good throwing position. He does a fine job of getting his feet under him to deliver the ball on the move with velocity and accuracy, and he demonstrates nice anticipation of routes to give his receivers time to make the reception and then gain yards after the catch. Gabbert uses pump fakes and shoulder fakes with enough skill to manipulate defenders and create openings downfield. The fact that Gabbert consistently integrates these skills separates him from prospects like Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett.

Extra point: Matt Waldman’s top 10 at quarterback were:
1) Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2) Christian Ponder, Florida State
3) Cam Newton, Auburn
4) Adam Froman, Louisville
5) Jake Locker, Washington
6) Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
7) Greg McElroy, Alabama
8) Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
9) Andy Dalton, T.C.U.
10) Colin Kaepernick, Nevada

 

[PitchShifter]

Apparently Brady and Hasslebeck are the only two quarterbacks drafted outside the Top 32 in the last 20 years to make the Superbowl.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

This is gonna sound freaky for a minute, but bare with me. Warner is the worst thing to go by when coming up with a successful QB philosaphy. We are talking fluke when it comes to the odds. It will most likely not happen to the same team like that again. Just not a good model to go off of, and Whiz ruined his chances here with that type of mindset IMO.

Peyton drafted by Colts, Brady New England (kinda crazy case), Rodgers GB, Eli NY, Rothturdberger Pitt.... those guys seem to win all the Superbowls of late. Did the Saints draft Breezy? I forget but we do see a trend here?

Brees was drafted by San Diego.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

What's funny to me is how some folks in here say Geno Smith would be a bad pick with our 7 spot. When Andy Reid takes Geno first off the board, I think it will put that opinion to rest.

Avatar bet that Reid doesn't take Geno #1 ?

 

[sportznutt]

Why would he draft Geno when he's signing Donovan McNabb?

 

[DoTheDew]

Apparently Brady and Hasslebeck are the only two quarterbacks drafted outside the Top 32 in the last 20 years to make the Superbowl.

And Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme who were undrafted.