DX: Noel vs. Len

[elindholm]

Most of you have probably already seen this, but DraftExpress has a nice breakdown of Noel's and Len's head-to-head matchup at the beginning of last NCAA season. The site doesn't render a verdict, but does do a good job of pointing out what the players did well or not-so-well.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Nerlens-Noel-Alex-Len-Head-to-Head-Matchup-Video-Analysis-4289

Having looked at it, I'm much less enthusiastic about Len than I was. He reminds me of Tiago Splitter -- big and with the occasional flash of competence, but mainly sort of goofy, hopping pointlessly around in the lane with his hands ineffectually in front of him.

Noel's defensive instincts are good. I see him as a Marcus Camby type, but the young Camby, pretty light on his feet.

I'm back to preferring Noel if the choice is between those two.

 

[devilalum]

Noel is crazy quick and explosive for a guy his size.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Errntknght]

I'd give it to Noel but by a small margin - health questions aside. I think I'd pick whoever the training staff said was the least likely to suffer long term problems... I'd guess that would be Len.

Nice find

 

[Superbone]

I read something the other day that said steals were the top indicator of big men who would do well at the next level. Noel had Len beat big time there. Something like 2.2 per game versus 0.3 per game.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think if you take the health concerns out of the equation, Noel would have been a lock for the number one. In fact, he would have gone number one in a lot of drafts. All you have to do is watch him play in his first game in college and then compare it to how he played prior to his injury to see his career growth potential. My concern with him, once injured, has always been the same. Even with his improvement he's still very raw and undeveloped. It will take a few years, minimum, for him to start approaching his potential and it probably won't happen on the first contract.

I've bought into Len mostly because everyone else is on his bandwagon. I watched him play in 3 games during this season and he was never the best player on the court IMO. And unlike Noel, he never did anything to awe me.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

There's a difference between a big guy who was taught to play basketball because he's big, and a real basketball player who turned out to be big. Len is clearly the former. It's harder to tell with Noel, but he could be in the latter category, which is obviously preferable. If Len weren't huge, he'd be irrelevant as an NBA prospect, whereas Noel could probably find a job even if he were only 6' 7".

 

[Errntknght]

I read that statement, too, but it was said about players across the board, not just bigs. If you correlate team steals with W-L records over the last seven regular seasons in the NBA you get virtually zero correlation - and some years it is negative. So steals themselves are of no particular value but it might be a useful indicator of quick hands for an individual. According to what I read the predictive value of steals was noted several years ago and has held up fairly well - if it weren't for that I'd say it was just a statistical fluke. As it is, I'd want to know exactly how they measured success before I'd put much faith in it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I have this to say about the Len vs Noel argument. In 5 years, whoever drafts one of those guys in favor of the other will be kicking themselves for NOT drafting Zeller. I know everyone here is hating on him but IMO he's the safest pick among the bigs. I think Noel has a good chance of passing him down the road but Zeller already has a much more NBA ready game than either of these two guys. He has a good mid-range shot and he's light on his feet. He works well in the pick and roll and is by far the best pick and roll defender out of all the bigs. He may need to pair with another big guy to really excel (his length is going to hurt him if he's forced down low often).

Most of the people that are trouncing Zeller are doing it because of his length (legit), his last name (not legit), his failure to live up to the preseason hype (not legit), the failure of other big white guys (not legit), the Syracuse game (not legit, a lot of young big guys look lost against that zone) and his lack of a post game (questionable). If he's still there at 10 and we have a chance to trade for him, I'll be fine with that. Three years into his NBA career I'd expect him to average 16 and 8 while playing above average defense as a combo PF/Center. Some will write him off as another Channing Frye, I think he's more a poor man's Duncan.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

There's a difference between a big guy who was taught to play basketball because he's big, and a real basketball player who turned out to be big. Len is clearly the former. It's harder to tell with Noel, but he could be in the latter category, which is obviously preferable. If Len weren't huge, he'd be irrelevant as an NBA prospect, whereas Noel could probably find a job even if he were only 6' 7".

I don't buy the theory a person is just naturally a "real basketball player." A lot of athletes change sports because they grow out of, or into another sport. There is also the issue of skills, likes or whatever. If Noel were 6' do you think he would be a PG?

 

[JCSunsfan]

To me, the big question about a big guy is whether he can catch the ball or not. Pg's at Maryland did not throw him the ball. That's why many say his numbers are sub par. Is it possible that they did not throw him the ball because he couldn't catch it. (more likely a combination of the two reasons) Reports are that he just has bad hands. He is big, he is strong, he is intimidating. So was Jake Tsakalidas.

I remember the Arkansas coach saying that Oliver Miller could "catch a dime in the dark." I think Noel has pretty good hands.

I take Noel.

 

[Mainstreet]

I have this to say about the Len vs Noel argument. In 5 years, whoever drafts one of those guys in favor of the other will be kicking themselves for NOT drafting Zeller. I know everyone here is hating on him but IMO he's the safest pick among the bigs. I think Noel has a good chance of passing him down the road but Zeller already has a much more NBA ready game than either of these two guys. He has a good mid-range shot and he's light on his feet. He works well in the pick and roll and is by far the best pick and roll defender out of all the bigs. He may need to pair with another big guy to really excel (his length is going to hurt him if he's forced down low often).

Most of the people that are trouncing Zeller are doing it because of his length (legit), his last name (not legit), his failure to live up to the preseason hype (not legit), the failure of other big white guys (not legit), the Syracuse game (not legit, a lot of young big guys look lost against that zone) and his lack of a post game (questionable). If he's still there at 10 and we have a chance to trade for him, I'll be fine with that. Three years into his NBA career I'd expect him to average 16 and 8 while playing above average defense as a combo PF/Center. Some will write him off as another Channing Frye, I think he's more a poor man's Duncan.

Steve

I must admit I have not been fair to Cody Zeller because of how Lance Blanks praised Luke Zeller as the best shooter in the world. He sort of looks like his brother and has a similar build so I kind of bunched them together. Shame on me. Thanks for pointing out the differences.

 

[sunsfan88]

To conclude, they both aren't that good and it's better to take Adams at #8-13 than take either one of them in the top 5.

 

[Superbone]

I read that statement, too, but it was said about players across the board, not just bigs. If you correlate team steals with W-L records over the last seven regular seasons in the NBA you get virtually zero correlation - and some years it is negative. So steals themselves are of no particular value but it might be a useful indicator of quick hands for an individual. According to what I read the predictive value of steals was noted several years ago and has held up fairly well - if it weren't for that I'd say it was just a statistical fluke. As it is, I'd want to know exactly how they measured success before I'd put much faith in it.

Here is what I read from Chad Ford:

What’s the difference between Nerlens Noel and Alex Len analytically? All the analytics say that Nerlens Noel should be a star. Almost all of them, but not all of them, but most of them say Alex Len shouldn’t.

And it really comes down to one number. They find a predictive quality in steals. When big men get steals, they have found that that number is predictive of NBA success. You get a lot of steals as a big man. The people that have done that in the past in college have gone on to have great NBA careers. If you don’t get steals it shows the opposite, that big men that can’t get steals in college when they get to the NBA, they fail.

What do you have? You have Nerlens Noel, 2.2 steals a game, which is phenomenal for a big man. What do you have in Alex Len? 0.3 steals a game, horrible even for a big man. All of a sudden there’s the big change, even though Alex Len does other things better than Noel, you weigh those various factors and try to find out which ones predict NBA success.

 

[elindholm]

I don't buy the theory a person is just naturally a "real basketball player."

No, not naturally, but as no one is 6 feet tall as a kid, the question is when they took up the sport and how innate their talent is. My guess is that Len came to the sport relatively late, when someone suggested he pursue it because of his size. You can get success stories that way (Duncan), but generally players will be more accomplished if they became accomplished basketball players first, then turned out to be tall.

 

[elindholm]

I remember the Arkansas coach saying that Oliver Miller could "catch a dime in the dark."

That's because he thought it was a Lifesaver.

 

[Errntknght]

Here is what I read from Chad Ford:

What’s the difference between Nerlens Noel and Alex Len analytically? All the analytics say that Nerlens Noel should be a star. Almost all of them, but not all of them, but most of them say Alex Len shouldn’t.

And it really comes down to one number. They find a predictive quality in steals. When big men get steals, they have found that that number is predictive of NBA success. You get a lot of steals as a big man. The people that have done that in the past in college have gone on to have great NBA careers. If you don’t get steals it shows the opposite, that big men that can’t get steals in college when they get to the NBA, they fail.

What do you have? You have Nerlens Noel, 2.2 steals a game, which is phenomenal for a big man. What do you have in Alex Len? 0.3 steals a game, horrible even for a big man. All of a sudden there’s the big change, even though Alex Len does other things better than Noel, you weigh those various factors and try to find out which ones predict NBA success.

This is not where I read about the idea. It was a conversation in which two analysts brought it up. One said it was the best single stat for prediciting NBA success and the other one said, so-and-so discovered that in 1995 (or something like that). They probably knew it only referred to bigs but I don't recall them saying it.
I couldn't believe what I was hearing (or reading) - I went right back and checked my regressions against W-L records to make sure I remembered correctly about steals and did the last two years to see if still held, which it did. (Team steals has essentially zero correlation with W-L record.)
After thinking it over, it makes much more sense if it just applies to bigs. I mean we know why steals are not necessarily good - it means your guys are playing D with their hands more than their feet. When they get a steal it is a benefit but when they try and fail they're out of position and they give up an easier score. Perimeter players give up position to gamble for steals much more often than bigs do so the latter's steals are probably more due to alertness and quick hands than 'gambling'.
Heck, I can do a quick check of that right now... sort centers and PF's by number of steals/40 and see if it correlates with my judgement of how good the players are:
PFs w 500+ min, top ten in steals per 40: James Johnson, Milsap, Odom, Jerebko, Markeiff Morris, Dante Cunningham, Anthony Davis, Kevin Garnett, Thomas Robinson and Reggie Evans.
Cs w 500+ min, top ten in steals per 40: Blatche, Drummond, Cousins, Dejuan Blair, Varegao, Greg Monroe, Thabeet, Chris Wilcox, Steimsma, Amir Johnson.
Well, as anyone can see its not a great predictor though I'd say it had a little merit.

 

[Errntknght]

Here is what I read from Chad Ford:

What’s the difference between Nerlens Noel and Alex Len analytically? All the analytics say that Nerlens Noel should be a star. Almost all of them, but not all of them, but most of them say Alex Len shouldn’t.

And it really comes down to one number. They find a predictive quality in steals. When big men get steals, they have found that that number is predictive of NBA success. You get a lot of steals as a big man. The people that have done that in the past in college have gone on to have great NBA careers. If you don’t get steals it shows the opposite, that big men that can’t get steals in college when they get to the NBA, they fail.

What do you have? You have Nerlens Noel, 2.2 steals a game, which is phenomenal for a big man. What do you have in Alex Len? 0.3 steals a game, horrible even for a big man. All of a sudden there’s the big change, even though Alex Len does other things better than Noel, you weigh those various factors and try to find out which ones predict NBA success.

This is not where I read about the idea. It was a conversation in which two analysts brought it up. One said it was the best single stat for prediciting NBA success and the other one said, so-and-so discovered that in 1995 (or something like that). They probably knew it only referred to bigs but I don't recall them saying it.
I couldn't believe what I was hearing (or reading) - I went right back and checked my regressions against W-L records to make sure I remembered correctly about steals and did the last two years to see if still held, which it did. (Team steals has essentially zero correlation with W-L record.)
After thinking it over, it makes much more sense if it just applies to bigs. I mean we know why steals are not necessarily good - it means your guys are playing D with their hands more than their feet. When they get a steal it is a benefit but when they try and fail they're out of position and they give up an easier score. Perimeter players give up position to gamble for steals much more often than bigs do so the latter's steals are probably more due to alertness and quick hands than 'gambling'.
Heck, I can do a quick check of that right now... sort centers and PF's by number of steals/40 and see if it correlates with my judgement of how good the players are:
PFs w 500+ min, top ten in steals per 40: James Johnson, Milsap, Odom, Jerebko, Markeiff Morris, Dante Cunningham, Anthony Davis, Kevin Garnett, Thomas Robinson and Reggie Evans.
Cs w 500+ min, top ten in steals per 40: Blatche, Drummond, Cousins, Dejuan Blair, Varegao, Greg Monroe, Thabeet, Chris Wilcox, Steimsma, Amir Johnson.
Well, as anyone can see its not a great predictor though I'd say it had some merit.

 

[elindholm]

bump

 

[Russ Smith]

I think if you take the health concerns out of the equation, Noel would have been a lock for the number one. In fact, he would have gone number one in a lot of drafts. All you have to do is watch him play in his first game in college and then compare it to how he played prior to his injury to see his career growth potential. My concern with him, once injured, has always been the same. Even with his improvement he's still very raw and undeveloped. It will take a few years, minimum, for him to start approaching his potential and it probably won't happen on the first contract.

I've bought into Len mostly because everyone else is on his bandwagon. I watched him play in 3 games during this season and he was never the best player on the court IMO. And unlike Noel, he never did anything to awe me.

Steve

That's really it IMO. Noel is a Sportscenter highlight guy and Len isn't(although some of his dunks are). Noel was playing much better as the season went on but he was never an impact guy on offense and his defense to me was overrated he gets blocks because he's good at it and goes after EVERY shot. He gets steals because he doesn't play post defense he either goes for the steal, or tries to block the shot.

His upside is huge, but so are the 2 knee surgery concerns.

Head to head it wasn't even close but as the season went on Noel got much better. We'll see how he pans out he'll have plenty of highlight reel dunks or blocks, I'm not sure if he'll ever be consistent enough to do all the little things that make a good player.

 

[Cheesebeef]

That's really it IMO. Noel is a Sportscenter highlight guy and Len isn't(although some of his dunks are). Noel was playing much better as the season went on but he was never an impact guy on offense and his defense to me was overrated he gets blocks because he's good at it and goes after EVERY shot. He gets steals because he doesn't play post defense he either goes for the steal, or tries to block the shot.

His upside is huge, but so are the 2 knee surgery concerns.

Head to head it wasn't even close but as the season went on Noel got much better. We'll see how he pans out he'll have plenty of highlight reel dunks or blocks, I'm not sure if he'll ever be consistent enough to do all the little things that make a good player.

The one trait, besides outrageous athleticism that people talk about Noel I his tenacity. Give me the guy with a huge motor and sick athleticism over the guy was good athleticism and a low motor any day of the week, especially at the C position.

 

[devilalum]

Can anybody think of an NBA center that had 2 knee reconstructions in college and went on to have a strong pro career?

 

[Russ Smith]

The one trait, besides outrageous athleticism that people talk about Noel I his tenacity. Give me the guy with a huge motor and sick athleticism over the guy was good athleticism and a low motor any day of the week, especially at the C position.

Yeah but they said the same thign about Bazz and his motor and I saw him play 25+ games last year and he dogged it on defense in all of them.

What I see with Noel is a kid who tries to block every shot. When he gets it, it's spectacular, when he doesn't, his man often gets the offensive rebound. As Wooden liked to say don't confuse activity with productivity, at times when I saw Noel I saw a guy who was running all over the place with no clear idea what he was doing.

I only saw Len twice, I can't judge him too much, but I wasn't all that impressed with Noel, he's been playing the game longer than Len has but at times appears like he has no idea what he's doing(on offense).

 

[elindholm]

For the record, here's what I like and don't like about Len in his video vs. Noel. This is the DX link I gave before: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Nerlens-Noel-Alex-Len-Head-to-Head-Matchup-Video-Analysis-4289

These entries go by the timer on the YouTube video, not the game clock. I don't discuss every play.

0:49 Len is in great position after an offensive rebound, but can't figure out how to clear space or draw contact.

1:03 Len pops out way too far after setting a pick, then has no one between himself and the basket, yet settles for a mfugly jump shot that's about four feet off the mark.

1:29 Len easily beat off the dribble when Noel goes left.

1:40 This is a good catch. The first time I looked at it, I thought Len traveled, but now I think it was a good play.

1:57 After a screen, Len is wide open at the rim, but he instantly takes himself out of the lane and sets up too far from the basket. Then on the catch, he pivots even further from the basket. Decent move after that, but I doubt he would have made the shot if not fouled.

2:45 This happens a couple of times in the video. At the end of the play, notice that Len has no lift at all for his second jump. After contesting Noel's shot, he's glued to the floor hoping that a teammate can get the rebound.

3:37 Len does well to get the ball in good position, but then backs off against a tiny guard and can't finish.

3:58 It's stupid to have Len show on a pick-and-roll 25 feet from the basket, but I'll put that one on the coaching.

4:25 Len leaves his feet to bite on a routine fake on a foul-line jump shot and should have been called for a foul.

4:58 Again Len gets no lift on his second jump when battling for the offensive rebound.

5:21 Good decisive move.

5:55 Again Len rolls unnecessarily far from the basket.

6:25 This is similar to 1:40, with Noel trying to front Len on the right block. Len beat it both times, making somewhat difficult catches. It looks like he has good hands.

8:16 Pretty good help defense.

8:31 Again Len fails to take advantage of a clear path to the basket, and instead settles for an ugly-looking short jump shot. He was fouled this time, but it should have been a dunk.

In summary, this is what I see:

* relatively mobile but lacks lateral quickness
* good hands
* good defensive awareness
* adequate footwork and balance
* shies away from contact on the offensive end
* poor leaping ability and virtually no second jump
* not much explosion in general
* tends to wander too far from the basket on both ends, especially on offense
* no instinct for attacking the rim

 

[Lights]

I'm not sold on Len but...

And it really comes down to one number. They find a predictive quality in steals. When big men get steals, they have found that that number is predictive of NBA success. You get a lot of steals as a big man. The people that have done that in the past in college have gone on to have great NBA careers. If you don’t get steals it shows the opposite, that big men that can’t get steals in college when they get to the NBA, they fail.

Man, Chad Ford. I swear he only looks at numbers that make his words look good and never actually watches real basketball being played.

I decided to go back and look at some of the best big men over the past twenty years. It was hard because a lot of them jumped from High School to the NBA so there are no college stats on them but on the ones I did find only three that averaged more than 1.0 steals per game in their college career. Shaq (1.2), Hakeem (1.3) and Robinson (1.2).

Others that didn't still turned out pretty good like Duncan (.5) Dikembe (.4), and Mourning (.5)

Now that is only a small sample size and I don't think Len is going to be even a whiff of these players but it still shows that steals can also mean absolutely nothing.

 

[tobiazz]

Can anybody think of an NBA center that had 2 knee reconstructions in college and went on to have a strong pro career?

Or the 7'+ NBA center that had foot/ankle problems early on but overcame them?

Both of these guys might become injury busts.

Grant Hill is an example of a player with mismanaged ankle injuries who recovered once the Suns training staff stepped in, but tall guys with health concerns never seem to get past them.