Rivercard
Too much good stuff
Nice article from PTF
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TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK FIVE SCOUTING REPORTS: BILLS AT CARDINALS
Posted by Mike Florio on October 3, 2008, 9:27 a.m. EDT
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist gives us an exclusive preview of the surprisingly compelling battle between the 4-0 Bills and 2-2 Cardinals.]
Wow, Buffalo is 4-0 at the quarter-mile mark! Arizona got off to a quick start against San Fran and Miami, but have since come back down to earth with back-to-back losses. Now the Bills take the long trip to Phoenix and look to go 5-0 for the first time since 1991. They’ve used the formula of a suffocating defense and manageable QB play that has Bills fans everywhere dreaming of the glory years of the late 80s and early 90s. The Cards got “Favred” last week and need to rebound quickly with Dallas and Carolina lined up the next two games.
At this point, Buffalo’s offense is a bit of an enigma. QB Trent Edwards is not the type to beat you on his own, but his steady play has kept games close for three quarters and his leadership/poise have brought Buffalo back to victory for three straight weeks in the 4th. Edwards is ranked 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion. He’s thrown only 2 interceptions and has led the Bills offense to 109 points (tied for 7th in the League). But Edwards has also been sacked 11 times, has a 34.6% third-down conversion rate, ranks 23rd in three-and-outs and has generated only 3 drives of 10 plays or more.
The running game has struggled to produce to its capability as well. Marshawn Lynch has yet to rush for 100 yards and is averaging 3.5 per carry (4.0 in ’07). It’s the quick-strike scoring and big play production of Buffalo’s offense that has led them to four straight wins. WRs Josh Reed and Lee Evans (new contract), coupled with TE Robert Royal, lead a group of receivers that are ripping off a high number of big-play receptions (20+ yards) over the course of the first quarter of ’08.
KEY #1 will be Edwards’ ability to take advantage of a fragile Arizona secondary that allowed 6 touchdown passes, 4 pass completions of 20+, and another 6 of 10+ yards. Buffalo has been rather inefficient running on 1st down and finds itself faced with multiple 2nd and 3rd down situations, 6+ yards to go. The Bills conversion rate is not in the upper half of the League. Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert and his staff will look to the big-play to keep drives alive and create quick-scoring opportunities. The Cardinals have given up 10 such drives (less than 4 plays) this season. The 2008 version of the Buffalo Bills defense would make Bruce Smith, Darryl Talley, and Cornelius Bennett proud. This group has gelled behind the play of Aaron Schobel, Paul Posluszny, and Donte Whitner. They bring a hard charging, aggressive style of play that has disrupted opponents with incessant pressure. They lead the League in preventing 3rd down conversions, have surrendered only 63 points, and have forced a high number of three and out drives. After 4 games they are ranked 7th in total defense. The Bills have smothered opponents in the passing game and this plays well to the strength of the Cardinals.
KEY #2 will be the play of DC’s Terrence McGee (who might miss the game with a knee) and Jabari Greer. Arizona will be hard pressed to replace the production of Anquan Boldin (sinus fracture), but #3 receiver Steve Breaston had a big 9-catch, 122 yard game last week. Teamed up with the explosive Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals will still have plenty of targets against a Bills secondary that has been somewhat suspect to the big-play pass. Greer (1) and McGee (2) have produced the only interceptions to date. They have 4 and 5 passes defended respectively, but each will have their hands full against the size and strength of Fitzgerald and the short-area quickness of Breaston. Arizona QB Kurt Warner would like to atone for the 5-sack and 3-interception performance versus the Jets. Look for Warner to test the Bills deep early and for Arizona to employ even more shotgun in the face of Buffalo’s pressure.For Arizona, this couldn’t be a more important week. Currently tied with the 49ers, the Cardinals need to bounce back and show this isn’t the same old Arizona football. They face two more playoff contenders in Weeks 6 and 7, so a win over the undefeated Bills would go a long way in establishing their own playoff aspirations. Confidence, even at the professional level, is paramount. Up until last week’s meltdown, the veteran Warner had done an admirable job in moving this offense by avoiding the turnover, sustaining drives on 3rd down, and avoiding pressure with quick reads and a good release. His receiver corps has the ability to create the big play on their own, so Warner has just had to stay within the offense and avoid critical mistakes.
Arizona will have to find a way to keep the Bills honest and respect the run. Edgerrin James and company are tied at 25th in rushing yards per game, and big plays via the run have been few and far between. What James and backup RB Tim Hightower have done is keep the chains moving on third-and-short situations. The running game has done just enough to complement Warner’s passing to keep the Cardinals on the move. Rarely does Arizona stall out after 3 plays and they have the ability to control the clock with a balanced attack. Buffalo’s short-yardage run defense has been almost impenetrable. The Bills are also first in the League preventing 3rd down conversions. KEY #3 will be the play of OG Deuce Lutui, along with OC Lyle Sendlein. The Cardinals have found the most room to run behind their big right guard (6’4″ 332 lbs). Lutui will more than likely be battling DT Marcus Stroud and the Bills have shut down the right side interior at a rate of less than 2 yards per carry. It will be another long day for Warner if the Cardinals can’t produce some on the ground.
Arizona certainly has to find a way to temper the big-play ability of WR Lee Evans. But more importantly I think they need to disrupt the rhythm of QB Trent Edwards (KEY #4). Edwards is not the best at avoiding pressure, having been sacked 11 times already. His passing efficiency drops dramatically in blitz situations. As a result, Buffalo has struggled converting on 3rd down (especially long) and is run off the field after 3 plays at a 27.5% rate. This is exactly what head coach Ken Whisenhunt hopes to do; clamp down on the long pass, bring the pressure on Edwards, and force the turnover via downs or off the pick/fumble. Arizona needs to control the pace of this game and to do so, and so will need to be much more efficient on first & second downs. (Note: A successful play on 1st down is 40% of the needed yards, on 2nd down it’s 60%.) Force 3rd & long, bring the pressure via the blitz or off the edge. Edwards won 2 of 6 in ’07 when passing for less than 60%. Thus far he has yet to have a game under that threshold.
KEY #5 rests in the hands of the Cardinals’ punt coverage unit (top 10 rank). Buffalo has averaged over 15 yards per return, even without Roscoe Parrish (thumb). The veteran Dirk Johnson has been averaging a respectable 42 yards per punt, but netting only 37. The explosiveness of the Bills return game can flip a field in favor of Buffalo and give Trent Edwards’ offense opportunities to hit the quick strike score. Arizona has had only 2 punts returned against them this season.
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TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK FIVE SCOUTING REPORTS: BILLS AT CARDINALS
Posted by Mike Florio on October 3, 2008, 9:27 a.m. EDT
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist gives us an exclusive preview of the surprisingly compelling battle between the 4-0 Bills and 2-2 Cardinals.]
Wow, Buffalo is 4-0 at the quarter-mile mark! Arizona got off to a quick start against San Fran and Miami, but have since come back down to earth with back-to-back losses. Now the Bills take the long trip to Phoenix and look to go 5-0 for the first time since 1991. They’ve used the formula of a suffocating defense and manageable QB play that has Bills fans everywhere dreaming of the glory years of the late 80s and early 90s. The Cards got “Favred” last week and need to rebound quickly with Dallas and Carolina lined up the next two games.
At this point, Buffalo’s offense is a bit of an enigma. QB Trent Edwards is not the type to beat you on his own, but his steady play has kept games close for three quarters and his leadership/poise have brought Buffalo back to victory for three straight weeks in the 4th. Edwards is ranked 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion. He’s thrown only 2 interceptions and has led the Bills offense to 109 points (tied for 7th in the League). But Edwards has also been sacked 11 times, has a 34.6% third-down conversion rate, ranks 23rd in three-and-outs and has generated only 3 drives of 10 plays or more.
The running game has struggled to produce to its capability as well. Marshawn Lynch has yet to rush for 100 yards and is averaging 3.5 per carry (4.0 in ’07). It’s the quick-strike scoring and big play production of Buffalo’s offense that has led them to four straight wins. WRs Josh Reed and Lee Evans (new contract), coupled with TE Robert Royal, lead a group of receivers that are ripping off a high number of big-play receptions (20+ yards) over the course of the first quarter of ’08.
KEY #1 will be Edwards’ ability to take advantage of a fragile Arizona secondary that allowed 6 touchdown passes, 4 pass completions of 20+, and another 6 of 10+ yards. Buffalo has been rather inefficient running on 1st down and finds itself faced with multiple 2nd and 3rd down situations, 6+ yards to go. The Bills conversion rate is not in the upper half of the League. Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert and his staff will look to the big-play to keep drives alive and create quick-scoring opportunities. The Cardinals have given up 10 such drives (less than 4 plays) this season. The 2008 version of the Buffalo Bills defense would make Bruce Smith, Darryl Talley, and Cornelius Bennett proud. This group has gelled behind the play of Aaron Schobel, Paul Posluszny, and Donte Whitner. They bring a hard charging, aggressive style of play that has disrupted opponents with incessant pressure. They lead the League in preventing 3rd down conversions, have surrendered only 63 points, and have forced a high number of three and out drives. After 4 games they are ranked 7th in total defense. The Bills have smothered opponents in the passing game and this plays well to the strength of the Cardinals.
KEY #2 will be the play of DC’s Terrence McGee (who might miss the game with a knee) and Jabari Greer. Arizona will be hard pressed to replace the production of Anquan Boldin (sinus fracture), but #3 receiver Steve Breaston had a big 9-catch, 122 yard game last week. Teamed up with the explosive Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals will still have plenty of targets against a Bills secondary that has been somewhat suspect to the big-play pass. Greer (1) and McGee (2) have produced the only interceptions to date. They have 4 and 5 passes defended respectively, but each will have their hands full against the size and strength of Fitzgerald and the short-area quickness of Breaston. Arizona QB Kurt Warner would like to atone for the 5-sack and 3-interception performance versus the Jets. Look for Warner to test the Bills deep early and for Arizona to employ even more shotgun in the face of Buffalo’s pressure.For Arizona, this couldn’t be a more important week. Currently tied with the 49ers, the Cardinals need to bounce back and show this isn’t the same old Arizona football. They face two more playoff contenders in Weeks 6 and 7, so a win over the undefeated Bills would go a long way in establishing their own playoff aspirations. Confidence, even at the professional level, is paramount. Up until last week’s meltdown, the veteran Warner had done an admirable job in moving this offense by avoiding the turnover, sustaining drives on 3rd down, and avoiding pressure with quick reads and a good release. His receiver corps has the ability to create the big play on their own, so Warner has just had to stay within the offense and avoid critical mistakes.
Arizona will have to find a way to keep the Bills honest and respect the run. Edgerrin James and company are tied at 25th in rushing yards per game, and big plays via the run have been few and far between. What James and backup RB Tim Hightower have done is keep the chains moving on third-and-short situations. The running game has done just enough to complement Warner’s passing to keep the Cardinals on the move. Rarely does Arizona stall out after 3 plays and they have the ability to control the clock with a balanced attack. Buffalo’s short-yardage run defense has been almost impenetrable. The Bills are also first in the League preventing 3rd down conversions. KEY #3 will be the play of OG Deuce Lutui, along with OC Lyle Sendlein. The Cardinals have found the most room to run behind their big right guard (6’4″ 332 lbs). Lutui will more than likely be battling DT Marcus Stroud and the Bills have shut down the right side interior at a rate of less than 2 yards per carry. It will be another long day for Warner if the Cardinals can’t produce some on the ground.
Arizona certainly has to find a way to temper the big-play ability of WR Lee Evans. But more importantly I think they need to disrupt the rhythm of QB Trent Edwards (KEY #4). Edwards is not the best at avoiding pressure, having been sacked 11 times already. His passing efficiency drops dramatically in blitz situations. As a result, Buffalo has struggled converting on 3rd down (especially long) and is run off the field after 3 plays at a 27.5% rate. This is exactly what head coach Ken Whisenhunt hopes to do; clamp down on the long pass, bring the pressure on Edwards, and force the turnover via downs or off the pick/fumble. Arizona needs to control the pace of this game and to do so, and so will need to be much more efficient on first & second downs. (Note: A successful play on 1st down is 40% of the needed yards, on 2nd down it’s 60%.) Force 3rd & long, bring the pressure via the blitz or off the edge. Edwards won 2 of 6 in ’07 when passing for less than 60%. Thus far he has yet to have a game under that threshold.
KEY #5 rests in the hands of the Cardinals’ punt coverage unit (top 10 rank). Buffalo has averaged over 15 yards per return, even without Roscoe Parrish (thumb). The veteran Dirk Johnson has been averaging a respectable 42 yards per punt, but netting only 37. The explosiveness of the Bills return game can flip a field in favor of Buffalo and give Trent Edwards’ offense opportunities to hit the quick strike score. Arizona has had only 2 punts returned against them this season.
