Extension for Alex Len?

[Hoop Head]

Alex Len will be entering his fourth year and will be a restricted free agent in 2017. Chandler will be the starter to open the season but hopefully Len is able to earn that spot over the course of the year. If he can do that then signing him now will prove to be a great move. Hopefully he stays healthy all year and learns a lot from watching Tyson but I think the Suns need to lock him up now, while they have the chance to save as much cap space as possible. I'm not sure how long Chandler will want to stick around if Len takes the starting spot from him, we do have him under contract for 3 full seasons but he could request a trade or something. if Len truly earns the starting spot then maybe Chandler sticks around for the duration of his deal as a mentor to the Len plus Bender and Chriss.

If Len is the starter to close out the year then it's fairly safe to say he'll get a sizable offer from someone during the offseason. With the cap jumping again because of the TV deal, it's expected it will increase somewhere between $10-20 million, everyone will have cap space to spend and bigs or Centers always seem to get overpaid the most. To think that Len could be getting an offer from someone around $15 million a year doesn't seem that far fetched, especially since whoever would go after him would need to offer a sizable contract with some incentives that might make the Suns think twice before matching. Just this last offseason guys like Boban Marjanovic got a 3 year/$21 million ($7m annually) contract which is entirely based on potential considering he's only been in the league 1 year and averaged 9 minutes a game and he'll be playing behind Andre Drummond who got a 5 year/$130m deal ($26m annually). Timofey Mozgov & Ian Mahinmi each got 4 year/$64 million deals ($16m annually) from the Lakers and Pacers respectively. Bismack Biyombo got 4 years/$72 million a year ($18m annually) to join a team with a crowded front court, Orlando. Even Miles Plumlee got 4 years/$52 million ($13m annually). If Plumlee can get $13 million a year I'm sure Len can also on the open market, restricted free agent or not. I'm not sure what sort of discount they could get by signing him to an extension this offseason but he'd surely be cheaper to lock in now, as a backup, than after the season is over.

Is it worth it to resign Len longterm, banking on him panning out, or try your luck with restricted free agency? For comparison here is a link to all of the deals signed this offseason, you can sort by position at the bottom and see how much a lot of guys were paid, a lot of the Centers were paid solely on potential vs production like Mozgov, Marjanovic, etc.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I really don't see the benefit for Len to sign an extension right now. He is going to get paid regardless and is probably better off waiting for free agency to drive up the price. Sure it would be good for the Suns to sign him now, but I just don't see Len doing it.

 

[overseascardfan]

If dude can't stay healthy for a full season then I say move on. Can't contribute sitting on the bench injured.

 

[Phrazbit]

I agree that Len will likely get offered silly amount of money, but even so, I think I'd rather roll the dice and risk having to match some contract. I'm not convinced that Len is positive presence on the court. The rebounding numbers were solid but he was pretty bad at everything else, the offensive numbers especially; you cannot have a 7 footer shoot that poorly and from basically every distance. People on this board killed Knight for his erratic finishing at the basket... he shot 5% better than Len from that range, and Len shot 30% from all other distances.

If Len has another year like last year then I'd just assume be done with him. So I'm willing to risk him having a good year and the Suns having to match some silly contract as opposed to the more likely scenario of the Suns extending him for some silly but not as silly amount only to have him confirm that he is basically a replacement level player.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I agree that Len will likely get offered silly amount of money, but even so, I think I'd rather roll the dice and risk having to match some contract. I'm not convinced that Len is positive presence on the court. The rebounding numbers were solid but he was pretty bad at everything else, the offensive numbers especially; you cannot have a 7 footer shoot that poorly and from basically every distance. People on this board killed Knight for his erratic finishing at the basket... he shot 5% better than Len from that range, and Len shot 30% from all other distances.

If Len has another year like last year then I'd just assume be done with him. So I'm willing to risk him having a good year and the Suns having to match some silly contract as opposed to the more likely scenario of the Suns extending him for some silly but not as silly amount only to have him confirm that he is basically a replacement level player.

I'm much less concerned about the shooting percentages than you are. To a great extent they can be explained away by the situations he was placed in. What does concern me is his inability to stay healthy and his hands. I think I'd offer him something around 14 million per and hope that he and his agent are reasonable. But if he's going to be like Oladipo, an average player that reportedly expects a max deal, we're probably better off without him.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think they need to try and lock him into an extension, I think he can only get a 4 year deal done and if they could get a team option after 2 years it might be worth it to overpay a little bit. That way there is an out if his health is an issue or he doesn't develop like we'd hope. I wouldn't pay him more than Chandler is making, which I think is $14 million a year. If he wants more than that I'd let him hit the open market. I think they should handle it differently than they did with Bledsoe's free agency when he first came here, how the team made it clear they'd match any offer. That gave Bledsoe's camp the ability to negotiate a better deal. Let someone offer Len something between $10-18 million a year and decide to match if he's shown improvement and the offer isn't too much.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think they should handle it differently than they did with Bledsoe's free agency when he first came here, how the team made it clear they'd match any offer. That gave Bledsoe's camp the ability to negotiate a better deal. Let someone offer Len something between $10-18 million a year and decide to match if he's shown improvement and the offer isn't too much.

Although I agree with much of this post, Bledsoe's camp insists the opposite happened. They claimed we were able to keep the bidding low because we made it clear we would match. Keep in mind that we only moved off our original offer once we found out about the huge TV deal being finalized and even then, we demanded the extra year as part of it.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Of course we extend Len. The worst thing to do would be to quit too early on Len. Stick with the plan.

 

[BC867]

Of course we extend Len. The worst thing to do would be to quit too early on Len. Stick with the plan.

It is beyond too early for Alex. So far, he has not met expectations. Of performance or progress or health.

The first half of the season will show if "the plan" is beneficial to the Suns. So far, Len has not earned an extension.

 

[Hoop Head]

When is the deadline to get him to sign an extension? Is it the beginning of the season or later?

I didn't think extensions could be worked on during the season but I recall someone signing one in February a year or two ago, not on the Suns though.

 

[Phrazbit]

I think for guys on their rookie deals its right around the beginning of the season, could be mistaken though. Either way, unless his agent gives us a smoking deal I wouldn't consider it. Len has yet to prove himself a capable rotation player. Sure, there may be some mitigating circumstances but we're entering year 4 and he has been a mix of injuries and play that has only occasionally escaped the realm of "poor" and then only briefly.

I wouldn't remotely consider giving him an extension that adds up to starter's money. His current trajectory paints him as a guy who should probably only play 12-18 minutes a night. If he proves better than that this year, GREAT! I'm willing to risk having to sign him to a like 15-18 million dollar deal next summer when we'll have a much better idea if he is competent, as opposed to just handing him 10-12 million (or more) this summer and finding out he is what he is.

 

[Hoop Head]

I just thought I'd add this, stats comparing Len's first 3 seasons to Robin Lopez's. Since they were both drafted by Phoenix I think it's worth comparing them. They were both 19 with 2 years in college under their belts when they were drafted. Lopez played in a better college program than Len and Alex was definitely the more raw player entering the NBA. Centers take longer to develop than any other position, even if they're projected to be great entering the league it still takes about 3 years before they start showing real consistency.

Comparing the 2 though I was surprised to see Len played in more games and averaged more minutes than Lopez through their first 3 seasons. I know Len is categorized as "Injury Prone" by a lot of people here, rightfully so to a point but he played through his injuries last year. He hasn't missed that many games outside of his first season, playing in 69 in year 2 and 78 last year. He's played through hand injuries last year, which hurt his FG% along with playing more PF alongside Chandler, that was also without a real PG on the court most of the time as well. Provided his ankles are no longer an issue I don't see his health being that big of a factor in the future. I thought he missed more time than he had and was surprised to see he only sat out 4 games last season. Comparing the 2 though, Len's averaged about 5 more minutes per game, 3 more rebounds, and half a point more than Lopez did in his first 3 years.

Robin Lopez has developed into a solid starting Center in the league. He's not going to move the needle that much but he serves his role of being a rim protecter and rebounder while not being completely useless offensively. He didn't come into his own until his 5th year, which was his 1st away from Phoenix. Lopez is entering his 9th year now after averaging 10.3 pts, 7.3 rbs, and 1.6 blks in 27.1 mpg last year. Len averaged 9pts, 7.6rbs, & .8 blks in 23.3 mpg last year. After looking at the numbers I think Len is better on paper than he seemed to be when watching him last year. I watched probably 50 games last year and I didn't think Len was as productive as his stats show. Looking at the game log you can see how inconsistent he was at a few points during the year but he seemed to be more consistent towards the end when Watson took over and the season was lost.

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Lopez
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezro01.html

Len
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lenal01.html

 

[JCSunsfan]

It is beyond too early for Alex. So far, he has not met expectations. Of performance or progress or health.

The first half of the season will show if "the plan" is beneficial to the Suns. So far, Len has not earned an extension.

Len averaged 9 points, over 7 boards and a block in 23 mpg. His defensive presence is better than his stats would indicate. He also played 78 games last year. The knock on his game was that he was not efficient, but he spent many experimental (unsuccessful experiment I might add) minutes playing pf because of the hole left by the Kieff trade.

Those numbers right there will get a player 10 mil plus per year in the new salary cap era. Right now, Len has earned an extension, and he still has lots of upside.

To cut the cord on Len right now would be absolutely foolhardy.

 

[elindholm]

The big advantage that Lopez has over Len is that he's a legitimately good shooter.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The big advantage that Lopez has over Len is that he's a legitimately good shooter.

Meh. Lopez is a career 53% shooter. Last year, when not asked to play pf, Len shot 50%. Lopez gets the nod right now on that percentage, but I don't think it will be a real difference going forward.

Len is clearly the superior rebounder and passer.

 

[leclerc]

I have no doubt Len will earn a good contract because he's too talented. He'll take the step this year with a healthy thumb and playing C. Hope to continue seeing him in a Suns uniform.

Come on he plays chess online with his grandfather and he wears the hello out of a moustache.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I look at it this way. Signing Len to a high dollar extension could well be a bad move if he can't past his injury problems and if he doesn't take another step forward in development. But the cost of not signing him should it all come together for him this season could end up being even greater, and I don't just mean the dollars and cents stuff. I just don't think we have a good enough reason to not pay him the going rate. And what else are we going to spend that money on?

 

[elindholm]

Meh. Lopez is a career 53% shooter. Last year, when not asked to play pf, Len shot 50%. Lopez gets the nod right now on that percentage, but I don't think it will be a real difference going forward.

I'm not up on whatever the currently fashionable advanced metrics are, but I thought I read that Len was in the 30s if he wasn't right at the rim. It's obvious from Lopez's FT stroke (where he makes around 80%) that his shooting mechanic is unusually smooth for a big man.

 

[Phrazbit]

I look at it this way. Signing Len to a high dollar extension could well be a bad move if he can't past his injury problems and if he doesn't take another step forward in development. But the cost of not signing him should it all come together for him this season could end up being even greater, and I don't just mean the dollars and cents stuff. I just don't think we have a good enough reason to not pay him the going rate. And what else are we going to spend that money on?

My thought is this... if Len plays like he did last year, he is basically a replacement level player, a guy you could replace for the league minimum. If we extend him right now for 12-15 million per year that ends up being an overpay for basically the entire value of the contract. If we gamble and he has a good season... how much is he really going to get? 15-20 million? I'd rather gamble with a 3-8 million dollar range in a year than gamble for at least twice that right now.

 

[Hoop Head]

If he takes the next step, stays healthy, locks down the starting center spot with averages of about 15 & 10 while shooting around 50%, would you be happy paying him close to $20 million a year? I think if he takes that next step, which I expect him to, and he reaches those levels most people will balk at the idea of paying him a contract around 4 years & $80 million, whether that is something we have to match or sign him to outright next offseason.

I think the gamble of spending a little bit more than he might be currently worth in terms of annual salary in order to lock him up won't hurt the teams ability to trade him if they decide to move on in a year or two down the road, whether he reaches the level we'd hoped for or not. If they can sign him for around $12 million annually, or less, I think they should jump at the chance this offseason. Who knows exactly how high the cap goes and what sort of contract he'll demand next offseason. Provided they don't pay him more than $15 million a year I'm all for an extension the more I think about it and look at the numbers.

 

[AzStevenCal]

My thought is this... if Len plays like he did last year, he is basically a replacement level player, a guy you could replace for the league minimum. If we extend him right now for 12-15 million per year that ends up being an overpay for basically the entire value of the contract. If we gamble and he has a good season... how much is he really going to get? 15-20 million? I'd rather gamble with a 3-8 million dollar range in a year than gamble for at least twice that right now.

You may be right on the rest of this but I think you're wrong on the overpay. I don't think he's anywhere near his potential but with the injury problems, the mediocre hands and the questionable BB IQ, it's quite possible he never gets there. But if he truly can play at a replacement level, IMO 12 to 15 is a steal for a fairly mobile big man giving you starter or near starter level play. All this is assuming I haven't misunderstood the meaning of "replacement player"?

Even if we don't see another record breaking cap increase we've already seen someone like Miles Plumlee get this kind of deal. If we can lock Len up for max length (no player option) for the full 5 year deal, I think the only concern then would be games missed due to injury.

 

[Phrazbit]

You may be right on the rest of this but I think you're wrong on the overpay. I don't think he's anywhere near his potential but with the injury problems, the mediocre hands and the questionable BB IQ, it's quite possible he never gets there. But if he truly can play at a replacement level, IMO 12 to 15 is a steal for a fairly mobile big man giving you starter or near starter level play. All this is assuming I haven't misunderstood the meaning of "replacement player"?

Even if we don't see another record breaking cap increase we've already seen someone like Miles Plumlee get this kind of deal. If we can lock Len up for max length (no player option) for the full 5 year deal, I think the only concern then would be games missed due to injury.

Yeah, we have a differing view of replacement level. If what we've seen of Len is who Len is, then IMO he is not close to starting level on a decent team. Replacement level players are guys who (once its clear their "potential" is no longer part of their value) bounce around the league on one year deals. Len has bad hands, bad defensive awareness, no shooting touch and vanishes for long stretches. It is a lot to overcome.

And yeah, Plumlee is a guy who I consider replacement level and he just got a deal like you're talking about. But I consider the Bucks to be a terribly ran organization. Just like Mozgov got a deal like we're talking about from the bumbling Lakers. Those are bad teams who threw money at those guys because they couldn't get anyone else to take it. Even if we're in the same boat of not able to give the money away... I'd rather just sit on it for flexibility in trades and to have down the road when perhaps our fortunes have turned.

I just don't see the risk in letting Len ferment another season. Wait a year and you'll have a better idea of what you've got. We're talking about risking a few million dollars a year by waiting vs risking tens of millions by extending early. IMO it is a no brainer.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yeah, we have a differing view of replacement level. If what we've seen of Len is who Len is, then IMO he is not close to starting level on a decent team. Replacement level players are guys who (once its clear their "potential" is no longer part of their value) bounce around the league on one year deals. Len has bad hands, bad defensive awareness, no shooting touch and vanishes for long stretches. It is a lot to overcome.

And yeah, Plumlee is a guy who I consider replacement level and he just got a deal like you're talking about. But I consider the Bucks to be a terribly ran organization. Just like Mozgov got a deal like we're talking about from the bumbling Lakers. Those are bad teams who threw money at those guys because they couldn't get anyone else to take it. Even if we're in the same boat of not able to give the money away... I'd rather just sit on it for flexibility in trades and to have down the road when perhaps our fortunes have turned.

I just don't see the risk in letting Len ferment another season. Wait a year and you'll have a better idea of what you've got. We're talking about risking a few million dollars a year by waiting vs risking tens of millions by extending early. IMO it is a no brainer.

Okay, it sounds like I had the wrong idea about what a replacement player is. Using that definition, I think Len has shown to be more than a replacement player when he's healthy and when he's playing his natural position. I was thinking that a replacement level player was roughly an average to slightly below average player and that if Len was actually able to play at that level he'd outplay a 15 per contract.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I'm not up on whatever the currently fashionable advanced metrics are, but I thought I read that Len was in the 30s if he wasn't right at the rim. It's obvious from Lopez's FT stroke (where he makes around 80%) that his shooting mechanic is unusually smooth for a big man.

Not wanting to get into a debate about this, but I always though Len's stroke was decent, and never thought Lopez' was anything special.

 

[Bodha]

Because what would we do without his 9pts/7 rbs??

Even Dwight Howard at his most dysfunctional can get you 18 and 14.