When was the last time you went looking for Cardinals on your Fantasy Team? I remeber some years when the #1 rule was: No Cardinals.
Post-draft fantasy winners
By Dave Richard
NFL.com
(May 3, 2005) -- Time to get your paper and your pencils! Over 250 players have entered the NFL via the draft, and that means lots and lots of roster changes. Teams are going to begin turning over talent like the Patriots turn Gatorade coolers upside down on Bill Belichick.
Following the draft, we're looking for situations where a rookie's arrival on a team could make an impact statistically for his teammates. In general, more than 90 percent of the rookies drafted won't leave a mark on the fantasy world this year, but some will help veterans improve in 2004.
This time last year, we recommended the Steelers receivers would improve once Ben Roethlisberger got some time to play. Of course, this isn't a perfect science, either. Joey Harrington and Jeff Garcia were thought of highly following the draft but failed to connect on a regular basis in 2004.
The one thing to keep in mind is that we're in the middle of the spring; training camp starts in mid-summer, and the football season doesn't kick off until the fall. So there's a lot of time for players to get demoted, traded or released. Lots of things can and will change in our fantasy ranking for the upcoming year.
But for now, here is a list of some chart movers since the draft entered the books:
Kevan Barlow, RB, 49ers
How fitting that we start with a player who we regularly questioned last year. Barlow already is headed for a better season not just because of Alex Smith's presence, but because the Niners drafted offensive linemen David Baas (Michigan) and Adam Snyder (Oregon) on top of adding Jonas Jennings via free agency. When you add on young linemen Kwame Harris and Justin Smiley and the return of Jeremy Newberry, you're looking at a team with a lot of potential along the line. Barlow will have a better time running the ball with those big men, and will only improve as Smith improves. Other winners: Rashaun Woods, WR; Eric Johnson, TE
Carnell Williams, RB, Buccaneers
Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson might have been picked higher in the draft, but our boy "Cadillac" will have the best rookie year among running backs. It's not only because he's super-talented -- it's because he best fits Jon Gruden's offensive scheme. Williams will be asked to run inside and outside as well as catch the ball at least four times per game. That's something that should amount to 20 touches a game once he's acclimated to the pro level. Tack on the fact that he has been playing at a high level with a top-flight college program and you have a receipe for success. Williams should hit 1,200 total yards and seven TDs easily. Other winners: Brian Griese, QB
Arizona D/ST
The steal of the 2005 draft? Easy -- Antrel Rolle going to the Cardinals. Rolle was the most NFL-ready defensive player out there, and the Cardinals must have been thrilled to see him fall into their lap. And remember how impressive Arizona's defense was fantasy-wise? It finished the year ranked 15th overall, ahead of units like Jacksonville and Green Bay, and is set to go even higher this year. Rolle also should contribute on special teams, as he did at Miami for a short period of time. You heard it here first: The Cardinals will be playoff contenders in 2005. Other winners: Kurt Warner, QB
Joey Harrington, QB, Lions/Kyle Boller, QB, Ravens
We seem to pump these guys up every year, and every year they underperform. What we want to see out of them are consistent numbers that warrant a roster spot. Harrington was 17th overall last year while Boller was ... uh, lower than that. Both teams restocked at receiver, so both players are running out of time to excel. Harrington, especially, has three amazing talents running routes for him now. If he can't connect in the end zone, he's going to have a lot of angry fantasy owners. Other winners: Kevin Jones, RB, DET; Marcus Pollard, TE, DET; Todd Heap, TE, BAL
Javon Walker, WR, Packers
It's official: Javon Walker finally can be considered a valuable long-term fantasy option. Our concern was that once Brett Favre retired, Walker would have trouble with a new quarterback. Not anymore -- Aaron Rodgers was our favorite passer in the draft, and we are confident he will do big things once he replaces Favre in a few years.
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Steven Jackson has an improved offensive line working for him in St. Louis.
The rich get richer: Not only will Jackson have Orlando Pace blocking for him, but he will also have rookies Alex Barron and Richie Incognito. Barron was the Rams' first-round pick after slipping just a bit, but physically speaking, he was the best offensive tackle in the draft. Incognito is a rabblerouser, but when he's focused on football he can manhandle defensive tackles. Both guys will have time to develop and eventually be Jackson's best pals. Other winners: Marc Bulger, QB; Marshall Faulk, RB
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
Big Ben already is a star with the media and fans, but he leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to fantasy. Adding the best tight end in the draft will only give Roethlisberger an additional target to throw to on plays 15 yards or shorter. Heath Miller, the Steelers' first-round pick, has the ability to be a red-zone star along the lines of L.J. Smith and Bubba Franks. That's good news for the reigning rookie of the year.
J.J. Arrington, RB, Cardinals
Continuing the trend of second-round running back rookies who put some good fantasy games together, Arrington might wind up with the Cardinals' starting job in 2005. Right now, the starter on Arizona's depth chart actually is Arrington, with Troy Hambrick and Marcel Shipp behind him. Shipp has been a great fantasy player when healthy, but Arrington definitely is going to get some looks. He has the makings of a great NFL running back, which the Cards could use for years to come. Other winners: Kurt Warner, QB
Mike Nugent, PK, Jets
Nugent was the best possible replacement for Doug Brien, who took the brunt of the blame for the Jets' 2004 playoff exit in Pittsburgh (nevermind the Jets' 2004 playoff win, in which Brien was a hero). Nugent is a solid kicker who has nailed some big kicks for Ohio State over the years. He told us he won't be affected by the pressure of kicking in New York since he did it for the Buckeyes for four years. It's not exactly the same, but it's about as close as you can get.
Extra snaps
The first-ever NFL.com 2005 Fantasy Football preview magazine will hit stores in late June, but the mock draft we will feature in the magazine was held last week. True, it's only spring and the football season is still a few months away, but nothing gets the blood pumping like a good mock fantasy draft. Included in the draft was NFL.com's own Vic Carucci, NFL.com fantasy mastermind Gil Brandt, NFL Network's Adam Schefter, and best of all, my boss, NFL.com content manager Ellen Levy.
Not only was the draft fun, but it was a real litmus test for what the coming fantasy season's drafts are going to look like. As we've reported, there are going to be a glutton of stud fantasy running backs this year, which is going to change how drafts go down in nearly every league. So by participating in this draft, we were able to get a preview of what a draft could look like come August.
Here are the key notes from the draft:
• Peyton Manning was taken No. 1 overall; Daunte Culpepper was No. 6.
• Randy Moss was the first receiver taken in early Round 2.
• Antonio Gates was the first tight end taken in Round 4.
• Baltimore was the first D/ST taken in Round 7.
• Sixteen of the first 20 picks were running backs. The 17th running back selected was Curtis Martin, who led the league in rushing in 2004.
• Eagles kicker David Akers was selected before Eagles RB Brian Westbrook. We would like to think that was merely an aberration. Westbrook obviously slipped through the cracks here; he should be picked higher in most leagues.
• Marshall Faulk was the 142nd player drafted, just after the Jets D/ST. Wow. Three years ago, he was a consensus No. 1 pick.
• We feel the best spot to draft in 2005 will be toward the bottom -- assuming you are in a "snake" draft. You're guaranteed two quality running backs, and you'll have the pick of a promising litter of receivers and quarterbacks when you pick again to end Round 3/start Round 4.
• We're going to earn our money this year evaluating running backs before the season. Because there are so many high-quality fantasy runners this year, the success in figuring out which ones will be the best in 2005 could mean major fantasy points.
