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2006-07 Phoenix Suns Fantasy Preview
Adam Madison
September 11, 2006
2005 OVERVIEW:
Lesson learned: never doubt the Suns. The story of the year was Amare Stoudemire – the absence of Stoudemire and how the Suns hardly skipped a beat without him. At the time, the Suns seemed to undergo a very rough off-season after their surprise 62-win 2004 team. They traded Joe Johnson¸ a then-25 year-old multi-dimensional minute-logging swingman, for Boris Diaw, a failed 23-year-old first round prospect whose passiveness held back his talent.
They acquired a 33-year-old undersized center in the form of Kurt Thomas in exchange for the 25-year-old Quentin Richardson and signed Raja Bell, who was mostly known as a scrappy bench player, to replace Johnson. To make things worse from this already supposed downgrade, Stoudemire underwent microfracture surgery late on October 18th, a dreaded knee injury that threatened his participation for the entire season with possible career-lasting effects. Rightfully, gloom and doom was abound; the Suns would go on to an underwhelming season, in the process proving the naysayers correct in that an offense-first team has dubious and fleeting success.
It wouldn’t be an interesting story if the Suns fulfilled those predictions, would it? The fairytale ending: Steve Nash, possibly the best basketball player on the planet, repeated his MVP season en route to another career year, buoying the Suns to a first-place finish in the Pacific Division and 54 wins. Despite losing their top scorer, Amare Stoudemire (26.0 points per game, 55.9% field goal shooting in 2004-05), the Suns finished first in points per game, again. Bell and Diaw were specifically splendid: Bell played in 79 games, logged 37.5 minutes a night, and shot an NBA-leading 44.2% from behind the arc, while Diaw played in 81 games, shot over 52 percent, and was one of just two players – along with Jason Kidd and LeBron James – to average at least six assists and six rebounds per game.
Despite the loss to the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals, by all accounts the Suns had an extremely successful year: they got deeper in the playoffs without Amare Stoudemire, they improved their defense, and with the emergence of Diaw and Bell, set themselves up for a serious NBA Finals run this season. With that said, however, there are still a few questions: Will Amare be as explosive as he was before the knee surgery? Can they count on Kurt Thomas after he missed 29 games with injury and played in just one postseason game? Even assuming Amare is one hundred percent healthy, how will Stoudemire and Diaw coexist after Diaw became the go-to option on the pick-and-roll and in the post later in the season? Will Steve Nash, the sole irreplaceable player on the team, be able to stave off decline and injury another year despite being 31 years old? If these questions are solved correctly – a simple task relative to last year – the Suns have as good a chance as anyone else in the league to be the next NBA champions.
ADDITIONS:
Marcus Banks, PG
Jumaine Jones, SF
LOSSES:
Tim Thomas, SF
Eddie House, SG
Brian Grant, PF
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Stoudemire, Amare
PF – Marion, Shawn
SF – Diaw, Boris
SG – Bell, Raja
PG – Nash, Steve
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006:
It’s the same tune that has been sung in the past two years: every offensive player involved with the team who receives at least 20 minutes per game is automatically on the radar. The rotation goes 10-deep, and the Suns may be the only team in the league where three or four bench players, along with each and every fantasy starter, can have quite a bit of fantasy value.
Each of the four returning starters should reprise the same value they had in 2005, more or less; the only wild card is Amare Stoudemire. It’s worth harping over: Stoudemire is the key to take this team from being one of the three or four best teams in the NBA to being the very best team in the NBA. By all accounts, as of now, Stoudemire’s knee looks ready to go, but don’t become lulled into a sense of security until multiple actual games have been played – Stoudemire looked alright in his abrupt March comeback last spring, but all was not well.
Off the bench, it’s mostly sharp-shooting: Marcus Banks, Leandro Barbosa, and the Joneses, Jumaine and James Jones, should all provide copious amounts of three-pointers with elite percentages from beyond the arc. While that may be all they provide, 150-200 three-pointers means a lot over a season. If all goes well, Kurt Thomas, their lone dependable big man off the bench, should only need to log about 25 minutes off the bench. If he gets hurt, the Suns are painfully thin behind him, but a healthy Thomas should be just fine for spot starting duty and will bring in a solid amount of points and rebounds.
What was lost in the story of 2005 was that the Suns were a legitimately improved defensive team; after finishing 29th in opponent’s field goal percentage in 2004-05, they finished a respectable 17th in the category in 2005-06. While the team will never be a defensive juggernaut, mere respectability defensively, combined with the most potent offensive attack in the league by quite a distance, equals another divisional title and a legitimate chance of becoming the NBA’s top team.
KEY BENCH PLAYERS / POSITIONAL BATTLES:
While the starting players are etched in stone, the Suns carry quite a stable of versatile players who can play different positions. Another plausible lineup would be Diaw at center, where he played much of last year (including the playoffs), Stoudemire at power forward, and Marion at small forward, returning the latter two to their natural positions. Marion and Diaw could also switch positions; the idea being that Marion is much better at defending quicker perimeter players and is one of the best help defenders in the league, but struggles in the post, where Diaw could use his length to an advantage.
Off the bench, newly-acquired Marcus Banks should eat into some of Leandro Barbosa’s playing time, and they are similar players – Banks is quick and loves to slice in and out of the lane just like Barbosa, but passes more and is a more able defender. Banks will take more of Nash’s point guard duties while Barbosa will play in the role that suits him best: offense-first two-guard off the bench where he is free to attack the basket without the traditional responsibilities of a point guard.
Jumaine Jones was signed after postseason hero Tim Thomas left Phoenix for greener pastures, and Jones provides one main thing: threes. Jones loves to shoot and although he only shot 34.3% from behind the arc last year, he was also overextended in a starter’s role. As a role-player on an elite team, expect Jones to shoot as he did in Los Angeles the year before: 39 percent or better. The Suns love to shoot the three, and their offensive system relies upon space, letting the best offensive players – Nash, Diaw, and Stoudemire – create and dish to the deadly spot-up shooters on the outside. In this kind of setting, don’t be surprised to see Jumaine Jones set another career high in three-pointers made.
PLAYERS WE LOVE:
It’s impossible to witness the display Boris Diaw put on in the playoffs and not get giddy. Confidence led to Diaw gradually get more active offensively in Phoenix, and by playoff time he was at the top of his game, routinely torching defenses with both his passing and scoring skills. A skilled ball-handler, Diaw is especially deadly on the pick-and-roll with Nash because he can dish to an open shooter, go off the dribble, or shoot an open 18-footer with equally dangerous precision. Combine that with his long reach defensively, and Diaw regularly fills up the box score with a little of everything, from points, rebounds and assists to steals and a limited number of turnovers. The only potential pothole is the return of Stoudemire – Diaw will no longer be the only option in the halfcourt set. Regardless, head coach Mike D’Antoni and two-time MVP Steve Nash refuse to allow miscommunication in the offensive system, and Diaw should be a safe lock to repeat last season’s breakout year or better it. Oh, yeah: he’s also center-eligible.
PLAYERS TO AVOID:
For those risk-averse, Amare Stoudemire will leave you questioning your belief in him. Center-eligible in most fantasy leagues, Stoudemire offers the very best combination of points and field goal percentage of any big man – if healthy. Of course, Stoudemire is also a freak of nature athletically, accustomed to always being one of the top two athletes on the court no matter the situation. If any of that athleticism slips away, it will be that much more difficult for Stoudemire to dominate. There is also the problem of his surgically repaired knee flaring up on him with swelling, causing him to miss a dozen or so games. Stoudemire’s buzz-worthy name means he will never fall far enough in value for him to be a sleeper, so you either have to buy into his stock all the way or totally avoid him.
The Suns have proved they can be one of the very best teams in the league without him, so the pressure is on Stoudemire to make this work, or we may be at risk of seeing a Chris Webber situation here. It’s not entirely an end-of-the-world situation, and Stoudemire’s potential can easily make up for any question marks in health, but in a lineup loaded with fantasy-worthy starters, he represents the closest thing to a red flag.
Bottom Line:
The Suns are a fantasy owner’s dream: high scoring offense, with most of the production spread out evenly among the stars. With Steve Nash running the point, everyone in a Suns uniform is worth a look. No other team is as deep or as productive from a fantasy standpoint. The return of Amare Stoudemire will rule the headlines, and he’ll be this season’s ultimate high-risk, high-reward player.
