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Free agency is the next season
Pat Kirwan By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Feb. 12, 2006) -- The 2006 unrestricted free-agency period is just weeks away, and this year has a few interesting twists in it that should be pointed out before it starts.
Before I get into some of the issues of the 2006 personnel season, I thought I would list my top 10 potential free agents. I am not going to include any of the quality veterans who probably will get cut just before the 2006 salary cap gets enforced or any of the restricted free agents like Cato June or Gary Brackett. I will not list the probable players getting "tagged" by clubs as franchise or transition players. Drew Brees, Steve Hutchinson, Reggie Wayne, LeCharles Bentley and maybe Nate Clements could be tagged if they're not signed before March 3 comes along.
Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri is another interesting player who was tagged last year, but doing it again could be problematic for New England. Last year Vinatieri received a $2.09 million base salary as a franchise player. This year the franchise tag is projected to be worth $2.48 million, which sounds like a decent deal for the Patriots, considering Vinatieri's field goals have been the margin of victory in all three of their Super Bowl wins. The problem is that because Vinatieri was tagged last year he is entitled to the franchise tag money or 120 percent of what he made last year, whichever is greater. Last season he was the highest-paid kicker in the NFL. One-hundred twenty percent of his 2005 salary and likely earned incentives are closer to $3 million, so he could actually make $600,000 more than the franchise tag, and more importantly hit the Patriots salary cap for the whole $3 million. If New England didn't want to do a long-term deal last year, and now Vinatieri's a year older with an uncapped year potentially staring the club in the face in 2007, the Patriots just might pass on their kicker. If he's free, he makes the top 10 list easily for me.
Shaun Alexander has increased his rushing yards in each of the past four seasons.
Shaun Alexander has increased his rushing yards in each of the past four seasons.
Shaun Alexander has already negotiated the use of the franchise tag out of his 2005 contract so he will be free to negotiate with all 32 teams. Seeing Alexander walking around Hawaii for the Pro Bowl with a Carolina Panthers hat on at least sends out the subliminal message that he is on the open market. The ripple effect of not being able to tag Alexander is that they will tag All-Pro offensive guard Hutchinson, which brings up an issue about the value of the franchise tags that will hurt the Seahawks yet help Hutchinson.
When the NFL constructed the concept of the franchise tag, which by definition is the average salary of the top five players at the position, it did something very strange. The league broke the defensive linemen up into two categories -- defensive tackles and defensive ends, which makes sense. Last year the franchise number for tackles was $5.1 million and for ends it was $6.6 million. This year the charge for tackles is $5.6 million and ends come in at $8.3 million. But when it comes to offensive linemen, the league lumped all five positions together. Centers, guards and tackles -- especially left tackles -- are all in one pool. So, when Seattle tags Hutchinson, he reaps the benefits of the left tackles. And by the way, the top-paid offensive linemen have five tackles in the top six.
Hutchinson will receive a $6.9 million tender because of the contracts of Jonathan Ogden, Chris Samuels, Leonard Davis and John Tait, among others. If guards and centers were separated from tackles like the defensive linemen are, then Hutchinson's franchise tag figure would be a lot closer to $4.9 million. But he's a great player and Seattle is expected to bite the bullet and tag him while the team negotiates a long-term deal.
Before I drop my top 10 on you, I have two other words of caution about this year. There are some good cornerbacks projected to be free agents, but if your favorite team doesn't play a lot of man-to-man coverage, it would be foolish to pay for a Clements or Charles Woodson. With so many teams using a Cover 2 as their base scheme, I have decided to not have any corners in list.
And, finally, with the Collective Bargaining Agreement probably not getting extended before the owners meetings in late March, this could be the slowest start to free-agent signings that we have seen since the CBA became part of the NFL fabric back in 1993. Why sign a player March 3 if you can only spread signing bonuses over four years if three weeks later you might be able to prorate the bonus over six or seven years? I anticipate a slow start to the signings, but I also think the first 10 players grabbed will include all of these men.
1. Shaun Alexander: The leading ball carrier with almost 1,900 yards and a touchdown record is a hot commodity. He will be 29 years old in August, which could scare off a few teams. And 1,653 regular-season carries in the last five seasons (330.6 per season) may also put up a yellow flag about wear and tear.
2. Antwaan Randle El: The multi-talented athlete only caught 35 passes all season, but he will be a sizzling prospect due to his performance in the Super Bowl, the great seasons undersized receivers Steve Smith and Santana Moss had, and a weak draft class.
3. Chris Hope: Here's another guy who had a very good Super Bowl and playoff run as a complementary player to All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu in Pittsburgh. As a two-year starter, he has 185 tackles and four interceptions to his credit in that time. The 26-year-old safety already has seven playoff starts under his belt. Look for a division rival to be very interested in him because they know him best of all.
Will Witherspoon has started 61 of the 62 career games he has played in.
Will Witherspoon has started 61 of the 62 career games he has played in.
4. Will Witherspoon: This 26-year-old linebacker from the Panthers has 283 tackles in the past three seasons with seven interceptions, 6½ sacks and 23 passes defended. If Antonio Pierce got a big contract last year when he left the Redskins and joined the Giants, expect Witherspoon to get plenty of action. I hope the Panthers find a way to keep this young playmaker on the roster.
5. John Abraham: Health and consistency issues surround Abraham, but he can rush the passer, and that trumps all issues in the NFL. Whenever he has been healthy enough to play 16 games, he has had a double-digit sack season for the Jets. He should receive about the same amount of interest that Jevon Kearse received coming out of Tennessee a few years ago. Don't forget his former coach, Herman Edwards, is now in Kansas City.
6. Kyle Vanden Bosch: I could make a case that Vanden Bosch was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Injuries plagued him until he went to Tennessee on a one-year contract, but the 28-year-old had 65 tackles and 12½ sacks on his way to the Pro Bowl. Watch the game tapes and ask yourself if your team has a better defensive end. I doubt it.
7. Jon Kitna: Kitna is long in the tooth but there are a number of teams looking for a guy to come in and compete for the starting QB position. If he loses the battle, he is still one heck of a backup. If the contract is constructed properly where he could start with backup money and then earn starter money if he wins the job, then there will be a few teams ready to talk to him.
8. Josh McCown: This is my dark horse of the free-agency class. Every team would love to find the next Jake Delhomme, and McCown has a chance to be that guy. He is 9-10 as a starter in the last two years for the Cardinals, which is impressive when you consider Arizona's history over the last seven seasons.
9. Julian Peterson: Injuries are a question mark and he may be in for a surprise about his value out on the street. He was a great player at one point, and at 28 years old a team will take a chance on a guy who had 82 tackles in 2005 for the Niners and can rush the passer. The contract structure is critical in this negotiation.
10. Edgerrin James: The Colts should tag Wayne and would probably want James back for another run at the Super Bowl. He doesn't have a high ratio of explosive runs (20-plus yards) for the number of carries he gets, especially against all the seven-in-the-box defenses Indianapolis faces, but he is a very productive back. I doubt he gets a team to break the bank for him and the Colts may get a shot at him later on in the process. Say what you want about the 28-year-old running back, but in the last three years he has rushed for 4,313 yards and caught 146 passes. How many teams have anyone even near that total? He sure would look good in a Cardinals uniform.
Free agency is the next season
Pat Kirwan By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Feb. 12, 2006) -- The 2006 unrestricted free-agency period is just weeks away, and this year has a few interesting twists in it that should be pointed out before it starts.
Before I get into some of the issues of the 2006 personnel season, I thought I would list my top 10 potential free agents. I am not going to include any of the quality veterans who probably will get cut just before the 2006 salary cap gets enforced or any of the restricted free agents like Cato June or Gary Brackett. I will not list the probable players getting "tagged" by clubs as franchise or transition players. Drew Brees, Steve Hutchinson, Reggie Wayne, LeCharles Bentley and maybe Nate Clements could be tagged if they're not signed before March 3 comes along.
Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri is another interesting player who was tagged last year, but doing it again could be problematic for New England. Last year Vinatieri received a $2.09 million base salary as a franchise player. This year the franchise tag is projected to be worth $2.48 million, which sounds like a decent deal for the Patriots, considering Vinatieri's field goals have been the margin of victory in all three of their Super Bowl wins. The problem is that because Vinatieri was tagged last year he is entitled to the franchise tag money or 120 percent of what he made last year, whichever is greater. Last season he was the highest-paid kicker in the NFL. One-hundred twenty percent of his 2005 salary and likely earned incentives are closer to $3 million, so he could actually make $600,000 more than the franchise tag, and more importantly hit the Patriots salary cap for the whole $3 million. If New England didn't want to do a long-term deal last year, and now Vinatieri's a year older with an uncapped year potentially staring the club in the face in 2007, the Patriots just might pass on their kicker. If he's free, he makes the top 10 list easily for me.
Shaun Alexander has increased his rushing yards in each of the past four seasons.
Shaun Alexander has increased his rushing yards in each of the past four seasons.
Shaun Alexander has already negotiated the use of the franchise tag out of his 2005 contract so he will be free to negotiate with all 32 teams. Seeing Alexander walking around Hawaii for the Pro Bowl with a Carolina Panthers hat on at least sends out the subliminal message that he is on the open market. The ripple effect of not being able to tag Alexander is that they will tag All-Pro offensive guard Hutchinson, which brings up an issue about the value of the franchise tags that will hurt the Seahawks yet help Hutchinson.
When the NFL constructed the concept of the franchise tag, which by definition is the average salary of the top five players at the position, it did something very strange. The league broke the defensive linemen up into two categories -- defensive tackles and defensive ends, which makes sense. Last year the franchise number for tackles was $5.1 million and for ends it was $6.6 million. This year the charge for tackles is $5.6 million and ends come in at $8.3 million. But when it comes to offensive linemen, the league lumped all five positions together. Centers, guards and tackles -- especially left tackles -- are all in one pool. So, when Seattle tags Hutchinson, he reaps the benefits of the left tackles. And by the way, the top-paid offensive linemen have five tackles in the top six.
Hutchinson will receive a $6.9 million tender because of the contracts of Jonathan Ogden, Chris Samuels, Leonard Davis and John Tait, among others. If guards and centers were separated from tackles like the defensive linemen are, then Hutchinson's franchise tag figure would be a lot closer to $4.9 million. But he's a great player and Seattle is expected to bite the bullet and tag him while the team negotiates a long-term deal.
Before I drop my top 10 on you, I have two other words of caution about this year. There are some good cornerbacks projected to be free agents, but if your favorite team doesn't play a lot of man-to-man coverage, it would be foolish to pay for a Clements or Charles Woodson. With so many teams using a Cover 2 as their base scheme, I have decided to not have any corners in list.
And, finally, with the Collective Bargaining Agreement probably not getting extended before the owners meetings in late March, this could be the slowest start to free-agent signings that we have seen since the CBA became part of the NFL fabric back in 1993. Why sign a player March 3 if you can only spread signing bonuses over four years if three weeks later you might be able to prorate the bonus over six or seven years? I anticipate a slow start to the signings, but I also think the first 10 players grabbed will include all of these men.
1. Shaun Alexander: The leading ball carrier with almost 1,900 yards and a touchdown record is a hot commodity. He will be 29 years old in August, which could scare off a few teams. And 1,653 regular-season carries in the last five seasons (330.6 per season) may also put up a yellow flag about wear and tear.
2. Antwaan Randle El: The multi-talented athlete only caught 35 passes all season, but he will be a sizzling prospect due to his performance in the Super Bowl, the great seasons undersized receivers Steve Smith and Santana Moss had, and a weak draft class.
3. Chris Hope: Here's another guy who had a very good Super Bowl and playoff run as a complementary player to All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu in Pittsburgh. As a two-year starter, he has 185 tackles and four interceptions to his credit in that time. The 26-year-old safety already has seven playoff starts under his belt. Look for a division rival to be very interested in him because they know him best of all.
Will Witherspoon has started 61 of the 62 career games he has played in.
Will Witherspoon has started 61 of the 62 career games he has played in.
4. Will Witherspoon: This 26-year-old linebacker from the Panthers has 283 tackles in the past three seasons with seven interceptions, 6½ sacks and 23 passes defended. If Antonio Pierce got a big contract last year when he left the Redskins and joined the Giants, expect Witherspoon to get plenty of action. I hope the Panthers find a way to keep this young playmaker on the roster.
5. John Abraham: Health and consistency issues surround Abraham, but he can rush the passer, and that trumps all issues in the NFL. Whenever he has been healthy enough to play 16 games, he has had a double-digit sack season for the Jets. He should receive about the same amount of interest that Jevon Kearse received coming out of Tennessee a few years ago. Don't forget his former coach, Herman Edwards, is now in Kansas City.
6. Kyle Vanden Bosch: I could make a case that Vanden Bosch was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Injuries plagued him until he went to Tennessee on a one-year contract, but the 28-year-old had 65 tackles and 12½ sacks on his way to the Pro Bowl. Watch the game tapes and ask yourself if your team has a better defensive end. I doubt it.
7. Jon Kitna: Kitna is long in the tooth but there are a number of teams looking for a guy to come in and compete for the starting QB position. If he loses the battle, he is still one heck of a backup. If the contract is constructed properly where he could start with backup money and then earn starter money if he wins the job, then there will be a few teams ready to talk to him.
8. Josh McCown: This is my dark horse of the free-agency class. Every team would love to find the next Jake Delhomme, and McCown has a chance to be that guy. He is 9-10 as a starter in the last two years for the Cardinals, which is impressive when you consider Arizona's history over the last seven seasons.
9. Julian Peterson: Injuries are a question mark and he may be in for a surprise about his value out on the street. He was a great player at one point, and at 28 years old a team will take a chance on a guy who had 82 tackles in 2005 for the Niners and can rush the passer. The contract structure is critical in this negotiation.
10. Edgerrin James: The Colts should tag Wayne and would probably want James back for another run at the Super Bowl. He doesn't have a high ratio of explosive runs (20-plus yards) for the number of carries he gets, especially against all the seven-in-the-box defenses Indianapolis faces, but he is a very productive back. I doubt he gets a team to break the bank for him and the Colts may get a shot at him later on in the process. Say what you want about the 28-year-old running back, but in the last three years he has rushed for 4,313 yards and caught 146 passes. How many teams have anyone even near that total? He sure would look good in a Cardinals uniform.
