When a player is drafted in the top-5, there is an immediate assumption that this player will become a major superstar and a cornerstone for the team that drafts him. But how often does it actually happen?
Repeat all-stars drafted in top-5 between 2000 and 2009 (50 picks total):
2000: none
2001: #3 Pau Gasol (4)
2002: #1 Yao Ming (8)
2003: #1 LeBron James (8)
2003: #3 Carmelo Anthony (5)
2003: #4 Chris Bosh (7)
2003: #5 Dwyane Wade (8)
2004: #1 Dwight Howard (6)
2005: #3 Deron Williams (3)
2005: #4 Chris Paul (5)
2006: none
2007: #2 Kevin Durant (3)
2007: #3 Al Horford (2)
2008: #1 Derrick Rose (3)
2008: #4 Russell Westbrook (2)
2008: #5 Kevin Love (2)
2009: #1 Blake Griffin (2)
Btw, there were only three one-time all-stars: Kenyon Martin, Devin Harris and LeMarcus Aldridge, but only one of them (Aldridge) is likely to repeat.
So of the 50 players selected in top 5, only 15 have gone on to become repeat all-stars. That gives a team 30% chance to land a perennial all-star with a top-5 pick (and therefore is more than twice as likely to draft someone who won't meet those expectations), all things being equal. At least that was the case over those 10 years.
Breakdown by draft position:
#1 (5 out of 10)
#2 (1 out of 10)
#3 (4 out of 10)
#4 (3 out of 10)
$5 (2 out of 10)
Repeat all-stars drafted in top-5 between 2000 and 2009 (50 picks total):
2000: none
2001: #3 Pau Gasol (4)
2002: #1 Yao Ming (8)
2003: #1 LeBron James (8)
2003: #3 Carmelo Anthony (5)
2003: #4 Chris Bosh (7)
2003: #5 Dwyane Wade (8)
2004: #1 Dwight Howard (6)
2005: #3 Deron Williams (3)
2005: #4 Chris Paul (5)
2006: none
2007: #2 Kevin Durant (3)
2007: #3 Al Horford (2)
2008: #1 Derrick Rose (3)
2008: #4 Russell Westbrook (2)
2008: #5 Kevin Love (2)
2009: #1 Blake Griffin (2)
Btw, there were only three one-time all-stars: Kenyon Martin, Devin Harris and LeMarcus Aldridge, but only one of them (Aldridge) is likely to repeat.
So of the 50 players selected in top 5, only 15 have gone on to become repeat all-stars. That gives a team 30% chance to land a perennial all-star with a top-5 pick (and therefore is more than twice as likely to draft someone who won't meet those expectations), all things being equal. At least that was the case over those 10 years.
Breakdown by draft position:
#1 (5 out of 10)
#2 (1 out of 10)
#3 (4 out of 10)
#4 (3 out of 10)
$5 (2 out of 10)
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