CardShark
DEAL WITH IT!
http://walterfootball.com/freenflpicks2008_06late.php
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
Line: Cowboys by 5. Total: 50.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Cowboys -5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Cowboys -4.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: G Kyle Kosier, CB Terence Newman, S Roy Williams. Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).
I waited until Wednesday night to make this pick. I wanted to clear my head. I decided to go to the gym to swim and lift weights Wednesday afternoon, but the gym was closed for some reason, so I had to unsuccessfully game the girl at the front desk. Then, I went to Subway and bought a meatball sub and a 2-liter of Coke because I'm a company man.
At any rate, I've been thinking about this since Tuesday morning, and I've decided to make this my October Pick of the Month. This could change if Adrian Wilson is suspended for his hit on Trent Edwards (unlikely) or if the public jumps ship and starts pounding the Cardinals (even less likely).
I love the Cardinals for six reasons, but before I get to them, let's quickly go over the matchups.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals are fifth in scoring, averaging 29.4 points per game. Even when Kurt Warner turned the ball over seven times, they still managed to score 35. And speaking of those seven giveaways, I find it amazing that despite Warner's meltdown in the Meadowlands, Arizona still has a +1 turnover ratio.
Warner is seen as a turnover machine, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Sure, he had three picks and four fumbles against the Jets, but look at what he's done in Arizona's other four contests: Zero fumbles, one pick. This is part of the public's incorrect interpretation of how good the Cardinals are, and I'll delve more into that later.
Arizona's offensive weakness doesn't match up to well with Dallas' defensive forte. The Cowboys have 14 sacks on the year, while the Cardinals have surrendered 12, though it should be noted that they didn't allow any against Buffalo. Still, Dallas owned a similar mismatch against the Bengals last week and couldn't exploit it. The reason? Terence Newman was out with an abdominal irritation. Newman will miss this contest as well. Without Newman, the Cowboys won't be able to live up their 11th ranking against the pass.
DALLAS OFFENSE: This does not look favorable for the Cardinals on paper, but I'll address this later as well. Going strictly by the numbers, Marion Barber and Felix Jones won't enjoy much success - though I wouldn't sit Barber in fantasy or anything - against Arizona's ninth-ranked rush defense, which limits opponents to 3.7 yards per carry. However, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten should be able to convert third downs with ease versus a Cardinal secondary that surrendered six touchdowns to Brett Favre. Arizona is 26th against the pass.
WHY I LOVE THE CARDINALS: OK, let's get right to it. There are six reasons why I'm using Arizona as my October Pick of the Month.
1. "The Cowboys Are Not Who We Thought They Were!" Thought I'd get a Dennis Green reference in here because the Cardinals are once again home underdogs against one of the favorites in the NFC.
I've visited some forums, including the one on this site, to read what people had to say about this game. A few like the Cardinals to cover, but most think the Cowboys will roll because they're the far superior team.
Are they? What exactly has Dallas done this year? They barely beat the Bengals last week, and probably would have lost if a hobbled Carson Palmer could have connected with some wide-open receivers. The Cowboys lost to the Redskins as massive favorites the week before. In Week 3, the Cowboys had their most impressive victory of the year, beating the Packers in Lambeau. However, Green Bay has since sputtered; they even lost to the Falcons at home on Sunday.
In Week 2, the Cowboys barely beat the Eagles, who like the Packers, have began to leak oil. On Kickoff Sunday, Dallas beat up on the Browns, who went on to get clobbered at Baltimore two weeks later.
There's something off with this Cowboys squad. I can't really put my finger on it, but it could be centered around Owens. Remember, after being targeted 17 times, Owens held a "woe is me" press conference and had to have a secret meeting with Romo. Last week, after a victory, Owens looked like he wanted to cry in front of the media. There's just something going on, which would explain the loss to the Redskins and the close call against the Bengals.
2. "The Cardinals Are Not Who You Think They Are!" Gotta love Dennis Green. Oh, and by "you," I mean the general public.
Public perception regarding the Cardinals is that they're a turnover-prone, defensively challenged squad. That's not true at all.
As mentioned above, Kurt Warner had that seven-turnover game. In his other four starts, he has just one giveaway and zero fumbles. Warner struggled in just one of his five games this season.
Oh, but the Cardinals couldn't stop the Jets, right? Yes, but there is an explanation for that. Adrian Wilson was out. Wilson could be the top safety in the league, and he's far and away the most talented defensive player the Cardinals have. Arizona couldn't stop the pass late last year when they didn't have Wilson, and that happened to be the case in the Meadowlands. Wilson came back for the Bills game, which the Cardinals easily dominated.
3. Cardinals' Homefield Advantage: You may laugh, but the Cardinals have one of the more dynamic homefield advantages in the NFL. Since Ken Whisenhunt stepped in, Arizona is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the number as hosts. And those aren't wins against rinky-dinky teams; the Cardinals beat the Bills last week, and the Steelers, Seahawks and Browns in 2007, all of whom had 10 wins or more that season.
Taking it one step further, the Cardinals are 5-0 straight up (and ATS) at home under Whisenhunt as either underdogs or favorites of three or less. For whatever reason, they seem to rise up to the occasion and beat superior squads at home.
4. Cardinals' Super Bowl: Who's Arizona's greatest rival? It's not the Rams. It's not the Seahawks. It's not the 49ers. It's the Cowboys. The Cardinals absolutely despise Dallas, as Cowboy fans often crash Arizona's homefield. But those same fans always walk away disappointed; the Cardinals are 5-2 against Dallas at home since 1997, with two of those straight-up victories coming in an underdog role.
I'm not surprised by that statistic. If you're an NFL player and opposing fans flood your stadium, that has to give you motivation to win so you can shut those people up and prove that you're the better team.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys don't really care about the Cardinals. That's why they seldom come out of the Desert alive. They walk in and they just don't know what hit them.
5. Todd Haley: Who is Todd Haley? He's Arizona's offensive coordinator, and he coached the Cowboys in 2005 and 2006.
What does that mean? Well, coaches who play their former team usually fare pretty favorably. Haley knows all of the strengths and weaknesses of Tony Romo and the Cowboys' defense, and he should be able to help his team exploit them. Remember, Arizona beat Pittsburgh last year in a similar situation, as Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm were ex-coaches of the Steelers.
6. The Vegas: This line opened at -6. The public predictably jumped all over the Cowboys. But instead of moving the spread up to create 50-50 betting action, the books have dropped the line to -5. It's even -4.5 in some places, as of Wednesday evening. Why does Vegas want even more action on Dallas? Something's fishy.
RECAP: So there you have it. I like the Cardinals to win and cover as my October Pick of the Month. Keep in mind that while my Picks of the Month have done well recently, nothing is a lock. Don't ever bet more than you can afford because no person on this planet can predict how the ball will bounce with 100-percent accuracy.
The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
I'm not sure how focused the Cowboys are for the Cardinals, but Arizona always plays arch rival Dallas tough at home.
Cardinals OC Todd Haley coached the Cowboys in 2005-2006.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
No surprise that the public loves the Cowboys. So, why is the line dropping toward Arizona?
Percentage of money on Dallas: 89% (33,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Tony Romo is 15-7 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.
Tony Romo is 9-3 ATS on the road.
Cardinals are 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) at home under Ken Whisenhunt.
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.
Opening Line: Cowboys -6.
Opening Total: 48.5.
Weather: Dome.
Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, Cowboys 24
Cardinals +5 (8 Units - October Pick of the Month)
Over 50 (.5 Units)
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
Line: Cowboys by 5. Total: 50.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Cowboys -5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Cowboys -4.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: G Kyle Kosier, CB Terence Newman, S Roy Williams. Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).
I waited until Wednesday night to make this pick. I wanted to clear my head. I decided to go to the gym to swim and lift weights Wednesday afternoon, but the gym was closed for some reason, so I had to unsuccessfully game the girl at the front desk. Then, I went to Subway and bought a meatball sub and a 2-liter of Coke because I'm a company man.
At any rate, I've been thinking about this since Tuesday morning, and I've decided to make this my October Pick of the Month. This could change if Adrian Wilson is suspended for his hit on Trent Edwards (unlikely) or if the public jumps ship and starts pounding the Cardinals (even less likely).
I love the Cardinals for six reasons, but before I get to them, let's quickly go over the matchups.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals are fifth in scoring, averaging 29.4 points per game. Even when Kurt Warner turned the ball over seven times, they still managed to score 35. And speaking of those seven giveaways, I find it amazing that despite Warner's meltdown in the Meadowlands, Arizona still has a +1 turnover ratio.
Warner is seen as a turnover machine, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Sure, he had three picks and four fumbles against the Jets, but look at what he's done in Arizona's other four contests: Zero fumbles, one pick. This is part of the public's incorrect interpretation of how good the Cardinals are, and I'll delve more into that later.
Arizona's offensive weakness doesn't match up to well with Dallas' defensive forte. The Cowboys have 14 sacks on the year, while the Cardinals have surrendered 12, though it should be noted that they didn't allow any against Buffalo. Still, Dallas owned a similar mismatch against the Bengals last week and couldn't exploit it. The reason? Terence Newman was out with an abdominal irritation. Newman will miss this contest as well. Without Newman, the Cowboys won't be able to live up their 11th ranking against the pass.
DALLAS OFFENSE: This does not look favorable for the Cardinals on paper, but I'll address this later as well. Going strictly by the numbers, Marion Barber and Felix Jones won't enjoy much success - though I wouldn't sit Barber in fantasy or anything - against Arizona's ninth-ranked rush defense, which limits opponents to 3.7 yards per carry. However, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten should be able to convert third downs with ease versus a Cardinal secondary that surrendered six touchdowns to Brett Favre. Arizona is 26th against the pass.
WHY I LOVE THE CARDINALS: OK, let's get right to it. There are six reasons why I'm using Arizona as my October Pick of the Month.
1. "The Cowboys Are Not Who We Thought They Were!" Thought I'd get a Dennis Green reference in here because the Cardinals are once again home underdogs against one of the favorites in the NFC.
I've visited some forums, including the one on this site, to read what people had to say about this game. A few like the Cardinals to cover, but most think the Cowboys will roll because they're the far superior team.
Are they? What exactly has Dallas done this year? They barely beat the Bengals last week, and probably would have lost if a hobbled Carson Palmer could have connected with some wide-open receivers. The Cowboys lost to the Redskins as massive favorites the week before. In Week 3, the Cowboys had their most impressive victory of the year, beating the Packers in Lambeau. However, Green Bay has since sputtered; they even lost to the Falcons at home on Sunday.
In Week 2, the Cowboys barely beat the Eagles, who like the Packers, have began to leak oil. On Kickoff Sunday, Dallas beat up on the Browns, who went on to get clobbered at Baltimore two weeks later.
There's something off with this Cowboys squad. I can't really put my finger on it, but it could be centered around Owens. Remember, after being targeted 17 times, Owens held a "woe is me" press conference and had to have a secret meeting with Romo. Last week, after a victory, Owens looked like he wanted to cry in front of the media. There's just something going on, which would explain the loss to the Redskins and the close call against the Bengals.
2. "The Cardinals Are Not Who You Think They Are!" Gotta love Dennis Green. Oh, and by "you," I mean the general public.
Public perception regarding the Cardinals is that they're a turnover-prone, defensively challenged squad. That's not true at all.
As mentioned above, Kurt Warner had that seven-turnover game. In his other four starts, he has just one giveaway and zero fumbles. Warner struggled in just one of his five games this season.
Oh, but the Cardinals couldn't stop the Jets, right? Yes, but there is an explanation for that. Adrian Wilson was out. Wilson could be the top safety in the league, and he's far and away the most talented defensive player the Cardinals have. Arizona couldn't stop the pass late last year when they didn't have Wilson, and that happened to be the case in the Meadowlands. Wilson came back for the Bills game, which the Cardinals easily dominated.
3. Cardinals' Homefield Advantage: You may laugh, but the Cardinals have one of the more dynamic homefield advantages in the NFL. Since Ken Whisenhunt stepped in, Arizona is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the number as hosts. And those aren't wins against rinky-dinky teams; the Cardinals beat the Bills last week, and the Steelers, Seahawks and Browns in 2007, all of whom had 10 wins or more that season.
Taking it one step further, the Cardinals are 5-0 straight up (and ATS) at home under Whisenhunt as either underdogs or favorites of three or less. For whatever reason, they seem to rise up to the occasion and beat superior squads at home.
4. Cardinals' Super Bowl: Who's Arizona's greatest rival? It's not the Rams. It's not the Seahawks. It's not the 49ers. It's the Cowboys. The Cardinals absolutely despise Dallas, as Cowboy fans often crash Arizona's homefield. But those same fans always walk away disappointed; the Cardinals are 5-2 against Dallas at home since 1997, with two of those straight-up victories coming in an underdog role.
I'm not surprised by that statistic. If you're an NFL player and opposing fans flood your stadium, that has to give you motivation to win so you can shut those people up and prove that you're the better team.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys don't really care about the Cardinals. That's why they seldom come out of the Desert alive. They walk in and they just don't know what hit them.
5. Todd Haley: Who is Todd Haley? He's Arizona's offensive coordinator, and he coached the Cowboys in 2005 and 2006.
What does that mean? Well, coaches who play their former team usually fare pretty favorably. Haley knows all of the strengths and weaknesses of Tony Romo and the Cowboys' defense, and he should be able to help his team exploit them. Remember, Arizona beat Pittsburgh last year in a similar situation, as Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm were ex-coaches of the Steelers.
6. The Vegas: This line opened at -6. The public predictably jumped all over the Cowboys. But instead of moving the spread up to create 50-50 betting action, the books have dropped the line to -5. It's even -4.5 in some places, as of Wednesday evening. Why does Vegas want even more action on Dallas? Something's fishy.
RECAP: So there you have it. I like the Cardinals to win and cover as my October Pick of the Month. Keep in mind that while my Picks of the Month have done well recently, nothing is a lock. Don't ever bet more than you can afford because no person on this planet can predict how the ball will bounce with 100-percent accuracy.
The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
I'm not sure how focused the Cowboys are for the Cardinals, but Arizona always plays arch rival Dallas tough at home.
Cardinals OC Todd Haley coached the Cowboys in 2005-2006.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
No surprise that the public loves the Cowboys. So, why is the line dropping toward Arizona?
Percentage of money on Dallas: 89% (33,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Tony Romo is 15-7 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.
Tony Romo is 9-3 ATS on the road.
Cardinals are 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) at home under Ken Whisenhunt.
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.
Opening Line: Cowboys -6.
Opening Total: 48.5.
Weather: Dome.
Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, Cowboys 24
Cardinals +5 (8 Units - October Pick of the Month)
Over 50 (.5 Units)
