grading free agents

[myrondizzo]

anybody have the grading the free agents article on espn. i saw that jojohnson they gave a D but i was wondering about some of our pick ups.

 

[Kolo]

Here it is:

Grading the free agent class of '05By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive

In business, there's a phenomenon called the "winner's curse." What it says, essentially, is that the winner of an auction usually regrets it, because making a winning bid and overpaying tend to go hand in hand.

Jerome James can clog the lane and a team's payroll.
That seems to apply in basketball too. For example, let's say there are three teams bidding for a free agent, whom we'll call "Jerome." All three get their personnel people working to determine the player's market value and come up with a contract offer. Team No. 1 estimates the player's market value correctly and makes a fair offer. Team No. 2 underestimates his value and makes an offer that's too low. But Team No. 3 overestimates his value and comes up with an offer that will overpay Jerome considerably.

Guess who wins the bidding? That's right, the team that overpaid. And that's why winning free-agent wars are often pyrrhic victories -- overpaying on a multiyear deal can put a team in a tight salary cap spot for years.

It seems a particularly appropriate time to discuss the winner's curse because so many of this year's free agents have been such crushing disappointments. Of the offseason's 25 most prominent free agents who changed teams, only a couple have been unqualified successes. The rest have either failed miserably or, at best, underperformed for their contracts. And most of the successes have been in the lower tier of players -- those who make less than the midlevel exception.

For proof, let's take a look at those 25 team-switching free agents and, much like Professor Ford out in Hawaii, assign grades based on how they've done so far. As you'll see, it ain't pretty.

In order of total salary:

Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks, 5 years, $70 million.
Johnson has played hard and shown that he's a quality NBA shooting guard. That's not the problem. The issue is that he's clearly not a superstar, or even an All-Star, but he's being paid like one. Making matters worse, the Hawks gave up two first-round picks and swingman Boris Diaw to get him, and right now Diaw is outplaying Johnson. Finally, the original plan to play Johnson at the point proved unworkable, leaving Atlanta with a glut of wingmen and a paucity of point guards.
Grade: D

Larry Hughes, Cleveland Cavaliers, 5 years, $60 million.
Hughes has reverted to his low-percentage ways in Cleveland, hitting only 38.7 percent from the floor and struggling to adapt as a defensive stopper -- a role he needs to fill so LeBron can focus on offense. Like Johnson, Hughes cost superstar money but is delivering only midlevel performance. The key difference here is that he didn't cost the Cavs draft picks and a player.
Grade: C-

Eddy Curry, New York Knicks, 6 years, $56 million.
Curry has been effective when he's on the floor, with per-40-minute rates of 21.1 points and 10.8 rebounds. The operative phrase here is "when he's on the floor." Between injuries and foul trouble he's played only 245 minutes, ranking him ninth on the Knicks. For $10 million a year and the loss of Michael Sweetney, New York needs much more.
Grade: C-

A former Celtic, Antoine Walker fittingly received a C.
Antoine Walker, Miami Heat,
6 years, $53 million.
'Toine is adjusting better to life as Miami's sixth man than some expected, shooting a career-best 43.3 percent. (Your eyes did not deceive you: The number "43.3 percent" just followed the words "career-best.") He's also giving a passable defensive effort when he's been forced to play small forward and hasn't chucked too many ill-chosen 3-pointers. That makes him a decent midlevel player, but at nearly $9 million per the Heat still overpaid.
Grade: C

Bobby Simmons, Milwaukee Bucks, 5 years, $47 million.
That soft jumper he showed as a Clipper hasn't surfaced in cheese country. Simmons is struggling with marks of 41.3 percent from the floor and 26.1 percent from 3-point range, and he hasn't provided the expected upgrade to the Bucks' porous defense. Fortunately, the Bucks don't necessarily need him to score, but $47 million is awfully expensive for a role player on a small-market team.
Grade: D

Cuttino Mobley, Los Angeles Clippers, 5 years, $42 million.
A stellar acquisition by the standards of this list, Mobley fills two important needs for the Clippers. He provides a durable shooting guard, and gives the Clips a respectable long-range shooter to open things up for Elton Brand in the paint. It's still hard to get excited about paying over $8 million a year for his ho-hum production, but as long as the Clips stay in first, Mobley's grade will stay above the curve.
Grade: B-

Marko Jaric, Minnesota Timberwolves, 6 years, $40 million.
Jaric has played decently, especially at the defensive end, and his versatility has been a bonus on a team with a thin bench. That's helped Minnesota surprise the soothsayers thus far, and the money wasn't too excessive. Unfortunately, as with Johnson, he also cost his team a player and a draft pick. With Sam Cassell looking spunky in L.A. and a Wolves first-rounder committed to the Clips, Jaric doesn't seem like such a bargain.
Grade: C-

Jerome James, New York Knicks, 5 years, $30 million.
The worst free-agent signing of the summer, hands down. For those of you familiar with my Player Efficiency Rating (PER), James has managed the difficult feat of posting a PER below zero thus far. He's taken one foul shot all season, averaged a foul every 2.5 minutes and needed only a week to fall out of the Knicks' rotation. And he only cost the Knicks their full midlevel exception. Brilliant.
Grade: F-

Antonio Daniels, Washington Wizards, 5 years, $30 million.
Daniels was supposed to help fill the void left by Hughes' departure, but instead he's dug a deeper crater. He's shooting 31.9 percent and averaging a pathetic 8.4 points per 40 minutes, while his 2-for-19 3-point marksmanship has failed to stop defenses from collapsing against Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison.
Grade: D-

It's been slow going for Stro.
Stromile Swift, Houston Rockets, 5 years, $30 million.
A big reason the Rockets have been such a disappointment is that their major free-agent acquisition, Swift, has failed to deliver. He's underperforming his career numbers across the board and has failed to pick up Houston's defensive concepts, a major reason he's still suffering the indignity of being Juwan Howard's backup.
Grade: D+

Earl Watson, Denver Nuggets, 5 years, $30 million.
Good news: The Nuggets got a coveted free-agent point guard in Watson. Bad news: They already had two better players who play the same position. As a result, Watson is sitting around waiting for Dec. 15, when he can be traded for some frontcourt help. The grade would be worse but for the fact that Watson still can be converted into an asset after next Thursday.
Grade: D+

Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Sacramento Kings, 5 years, $30 million.
Half a billion dollars later, we finally get to a free agent who's lived up to the expectations. Abdur-Rahim cost the Kings only their midlevel exception and he's given them exactly what they expected: A high-scoring, high-percentage power forward, albeit one who's a bit soft on D. The grade would be an A except for Abdur-Rahim's supernatural ability to have his teams disappoint, as the Kings have been surprisingly mediocre.
Grade: A-

Kwame Brown, Los Angeles Lakers, 3 years, $25 million.
Food for thought: Now that Brown is disappointing a second franchise and, in five years, has provided virtually zero highlight material, can we consider the possibility that all those scouts were wrong four years ago, and he just didn't have as much ability as we initially presumed? Isn't that a much better explanation for what's taken place since?
Grade: F

Raja Bell, Phoenix Suns, 5 years, $24 million.
Bell probably wasn't worth all the money Phoenix paid and he hasn't exactly lit it up offensively thus far. On the other hand, his feisty demeanor has been a key to the one of the league's most improved defenses, as he's ably filled the stopper role vacated by Johnson's departure. All told, I doubt the Suns regret it.
Grade: B-

Donyell Marshall, Cleveland Cavaliers. 4 years, $22 million.
Marshall's shooting (38.5 percent) isn't up to his usual level despite the many open shots that LeBron & Co. provide, and defensively he's of limited value. But he's helping out on the boards and comes at a bargain price, so even if the jumpers don't start falling, he's providing decent value.
Grade: B-

Damon Stoudamire, Memphis Grizzlies, 4 years, $17 million.
Few small guards have aged better than Mighty Mouse, who even at 32 is having no problem filling it up. He's hitting 40 percent on 3-pointers and contributing solid numbers across the board at a bargain price. That's helped the Griz to the second-best record in the West despite a thorough offseason housecleaning.
Grade: A-

Damon Jones, Cleveland Cavaliers, 4 years, $16.1 million.
Cleveland hired the motormouthed guard to hit 3-pointers, and so far he's making 39.5 percent of them. He doesn't provide much else and the numbers don't match what he did in Miami a year ago, but the shooting-starved Cavs aren't complaining.
Grade: B-

Zaza Pachulia's offensive game has been a plus for the Hawks.
Zaza Pachulia, Atlanta Hawks, 4 years, $16 million.
Zaza has a soft touch around the rim and has proved surprisingly adept as a rebounder, averaging 11.7 caroms per 40 minutes. Considering his youth (21) and the bargain-basement price for a big man, this was a steal, but the grade won't reach the A range until he stops getting abused on defense.
Grade: B+

Steven Hunter, Philadelphia 76ers, 5 years, $16.5 million.
Like Pachulia, Hunter provides a reasonably effective big man at an innocuous price. The 58 percent shooting is eye-catching, but the Sixers would be happier if he grabbed a rebound once in a while. His rate of one every six minutes is among the worst at his position.
Grade: B

Brian Scalabrine, Boston Celtics, 5 years, $15 million.
It doesn't exactly take Marco Polo to find the negatives on the Scalabrine deal. For instance, he has as many turnovers as field goals. He has nearly as many fouls (26) as points (28). Office pools are starting up throughout the Boston area on when he'll finally play his way out of Doc Rivers' rotation. Not that we saw this coming or anything.
Grade: F

Sarunas Jasikevicius, Indiana Pacers, 3 years, $12 million.
I was skeptical about his ability to give Indy bang for these bucks, but so far Jasikevicius has been absolutely brilliant. In fact, through Sunday's games he had the best 2005-06 PER of any free agent on this list at 21.72 (the league average is 15.0). For more evidence, check out these shooting numbers: 51.7 percent from the floor, 51 percent on 3-pointers, and 94.9 percent from the line. Per minute he's Indy's No. 3 scorer, and he may use Jamaal Tinsley's absence this week to take over the starting point guard job.
Grade: A+

James Jones, Phoenix Suns, 4 years, $11 million.
A cheap replacement for Quentin Richardson's "just hang out at the 3-point line and wait for Nash to deliver the ball" role, Jones is taking more than half his shots from downtown and hitting 40 percent. He's not completely one-dimensional either, throwing in a little D to complement the jump shooting. At this price point, it's hard to ask for anything more.
Grade: B+

Keyon Dooling, Orlando Magic, 3 years, $10 million.
Dooling seemed to be justifying Orlando's investment in him with some quality scoring performances to begin the year, but a heel problem knocked him out after six games and he hasn't been heard from since. He should be back in the lineup by Christmas, however, and we'll see if he can keep it up then.
Grade: Incomplete

Dale Davis, Detroit Pistons, 2 years, $7 million.
It's great to have frontcourt depth, but right now Detroit is paying Davis quite a bit of money to keep Jason Maxiell company at the far end of the bench. Once playoff time rolls around, his role may increase, especially if the Pistons need somebody to take a few fouls against Shaq.
Grade: Incomplete

Eddie House, Phoenix Suns, 2 years, $1.8 million.
Other than Jasikevicius, House has been the league's best free-agent pickup thus far. Per 40 minutes he's averaging a whopping 25.6 points, and the notorious gunner is even throwing in 4.9 assists. The 48.2 percent shooting mark is a career high, too. Now for the punch line: He's barely costing the Suns more than the minimum salary -- or about 3 percent of what the Hawks owe Joe Johnson. No winner's curse here.
Grade: A

 

[myrondizzo]

with B-, B+, and an A looks like we did pretty good. especially since hollinger gave us a D+ at the start of the season. http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=58965&highlight=grades thanks for posting

 

[BillsCarnage]

started a new thread before i saw this one, but here's what i posted there..

Interesting that just about every sports media outlet/writer was giving the Hawks the big thumbs up for snagging JoJo and the Suns a big thumbs down prior to training camp. Now a mear two months later the coin is flipped.

 

[SactownSunsFan]

Someone should ask ol' Johnny-Boy how two B's and an A for Free Agents results in a D grade off-season. I thought this guy was all about stats and math equations, and yet somehow those two articles don't add up.

Maybe he should re-evaluate his offseason grades now?

 

[nowagimp]

Someone should ask ol' Johnny-Boy how two B's and an A for Free Agents results in a D grade off-season. I thought this guy was all about stats and math equations, and yet somehow those two articles don't add up.

Maybe he should re-evaluate his offseason grades now?

Good point, and its not just johnny boy. All these turkeys failed to recognize merit in the decision making process of suns management the last two years. Sounds alot like last year, when none of them realized that Nash would bring the team together. I give all the major writers and statmeisters an F on both counts. It appears that they just don't get it: its a team game, and ball movement(team offense), and team defense are why the suns seem to overachieve, given all the stats that everyone so often cites. Oh yeah, Steve Nash, the reigning MVP, has an average player efficiency rating. The problem with stats and espeically aggregate stats, like PER, is that they are dependent on so many variables that their reliability is reduced. How good Boris Diaw(or JJ) is, does depend on who he plays with, duhhhh!
However, its easy to predict that the NBA champions will be competitive next year, and we can find stats that predict this!

 

[Chaplin]

Someone should ask ol' Johnny-Boy how two B's and an A for Free Agents results in a D grade off-season. I thought this guy was all about stats and math equations, and yet somehow those two articles don't add up.

Maybe he should re-evaluate his offseason grades now?

These grades are just like Power Rankings. I don't see a problem with it. They don't mean anything in the long run, and it is a work-in-progress.

A free agent class of Raja Bell, James Jones (not really a free agent, but still) and Eddie House does not look like a "B" performance. Just based on name alone (which is what he did his offseason grades on), I don't think a D is that unusual. However, now that he and the rest of us have seen how they play in our system, that is changed.

Why should he go back and change the offseason rankings? Does that mean all the sportswriters that put us as the 15th best team 2 summers ago should go back and change that to the #1 or #2? Of course not.

 

[SactownSunsFan]

These grades are just like Power Rankings. I don't see a problem with it. They don't mean anything in the long run, and it is a work-in-progress.

A free agent class of Raja Bell, James Jones (not really a free agent, but still) and Eddie House does not look like a "B" performance. Just based on name alone (which is what he did his offseason grades on), I don't think a D is that unusual. However, now that he and the rest of us have seen how they play in our system, that is changed.

Why should he go back and change the offseason rankings? Does that mean all the sportswriters that put us as the 15th best team 2 summers ago should go back and change that to the #1 or #2? Of course not.

In a sense, power rankings get re-evaluated every week. Hollinger's real mistake was grading out the off-season before the results of those moves could be seen. How can you know how great an off-season was until at least mid-point into a season? For this reason I think he should re-evaluate his offseason grades around all-star break. You're right- his grades don't mean anything in the short or long run. They really are just for the amusement of others, so why not make a re-evaluation?

 

[brianarizona]

one thing i think is funny is that they go off on each summary why it is a bad pick for each one of the suns players that they did.....yet at the end they always end by saying that "the suns dont regret this move" or "he is as good as you can get for that money" so I think it is ironic becuase their last sentence in each one is saying how signing that particular player was a good deal. I am not complaning about the grades the suns recieved by any means becuase they look a heck of a lot better then any other team on there. You gotta love that Joe Johnson is one of the top worst free agent picks...Thanks JOE for Diaw and the picks we wouldn't have wanted it any other way.

 

[Yuma]

I think the writers gave us poor grades for losing JJ because of the unstated idea that we "could" win an NBA title with him, and by losing him, lost our shot at a title try. Thus making our situation worse then other teams losing free agents. To be fair to the sports writers, we can only prove them wrong by winning the title WITHOUT JJ this year. That still remains to be seen.

Personally, I don't agree with that, but I can see where people will grade how we did on the JJ trade based on our playoff success, or lack thereof. I think if we make the NBA Finals, over San Antonio, that right there we prove we did better on the JJ trade. Even if we don't win the title. We got further without him than with him when he was here. Although, I can already see the articles saying if we had him, we would have won the title.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks, 5 years, $70 million.
Johnson has played hard and shown that he's a quality NBA shooting guard. That's not the problem. The issue is that he's clearly not a superstar, or even an All-Star, but he's being paid like one. Making matters worse, the Hawks gave up two first-round picks and swingman Boris Diaw to get him, and right now Diaw is outplaying Johnson. Finally, the original plan to play Johnson at the point proved unworkable, leaving Atlanta with a glut of wingmen and a paucity of point guards.
Grade: D

I wonder how many Hawk owners are sitting in their luxury suites each game, pounding their heads off the wall while chanting "THAT BASTARD BELKIN HAD IT RIGHT ALL ALONG".

Jerome James, New York Knicks, 5 years, $30 million.
The worst free-agent signing of the summer, hands down. For those of you familiar with my Player Efficiency Rating (PER), James has managed the difficult feat of posting a PER below zero thus far. He's taken one foul shot all season, averaged a foul every 2.5 minutes and needed only a week to fall out of the Knicks' rotation. And he only cost the Knicks their full midlevel exception. Brilliant.
Grade: F-

F Minus?? I love it! I swear, only Knick fans couldn't see this dud coming. Anyone who thought this was a good signing is delusional.

Earl Watson, Denver Nuggets, 5 years, $30 million.
Good news: The Nuggets got a coveted free-agent point guard in Watson. Bad news: They already had two better players who play the same position. As a result, Watson is sitting around waiting for Dec. 15, when he can be traded for some frontcourt help. The grade would be worse but for the fact that Watson still can be converted into an asset after next Thursday.
Grade: D+

Number 1 Question: Why did the Nuggets sign him again when they had a glutton of PG as is?

Number 2 Question: Why the hell did Watson sign with the Nuggets knowing this?

Hey, Atlanta.. Here's an idea.. You need a PG badly.. The Nuggets need help at the SG position.. How about trading one of your 9 SG to try and get this guy?

Kwame Brown, Los Angeles Lakers, 3 years, $25 million.
Food for thought: Now that Brown is disappointing a second franchise and, in five years, has provided virtually zero highlight material, can we consider the possibility that all those scouts were wrong four years ago, and he just didn't have as much ability as we initially presumed? Isn't that a much better explanation for what's taken place since?
Grade: F

And the Lakers gave up Caron Butler to get this bum.. Thank GOD initial rumors of Kwame heading to Phoenix were later squashed.

Raja Bell, Phoenix Suns, 5 years, $24 million.
Bell probably wasn't worth all the money Phoenix paid and he hasn't exactly lit it up offensively thus far. On the other hand, his feisty demeanor has been a key to the one of the league's most improved defenses, as he's ably filled the stopper role vacated by Johnson's departure. All told, I doubt the Suns regret it.
Grade: B-

Trust me.. They don't.

Steven Hunter, Philadelphia 76ers, 5 years, $16.5 million.
Like Pachulia, Hunter provides a reasonably effective big man at an innocuous price. The 58 percent shooting is eye-catching, but the Sixers would be happier if he grabbed a rebound once in a while. His rate of one every six minutes is among the worst at his position.
Grade: B

Ahh the one that got away.. Good to see him doing well.

James Jones, Phoenix Suns, 4 years, $11 million.
A cheap replacement for Quentin Richardson's "just hang out at the 3-point line and wait for Nash to deliver the ball" role, Jones is taking more than half his shots from downtown and hitting 40 percent. He's not completely one-dimensional either, throwing in a little D to complement the jump shooting. At this price point, it's hard to ask for anything more.
Grade: B+

At ANY price, it's hard to ask for anything more. Jones has been everything advertised. He's been well worth the money.

Eddie House, Phoenix Suns, 2 years, $1.8 million.
Other than Jasikevicius, House has been the league's best free-agent pickup thus far. Per 40 minutes he's averaging a whopping 25.6 points, and the notorious gunner is even throwing in 4.9 assists. The 48.2 percent shooting mark is a career high, too. Now for the punch line: He's barely costing the Suns more than the minimum salary -- or about 3 percent of what the Hawks owe Joe Johnson. No winner's curse here.
Grade: A

Nothing quite beats the ex-ASU leader returning "home" and leading the Suns offensively. A solid signing. Definately has earned his money.

 

[nothin' but net]

I think what made people covet JJ was that he, and Q for that matter, wasn't percieved as a "one trick pony". Trading JJ for Diaw and future picks seemed like a bad move initially because JJ was supposedly a more complete player. What we are seeing now is that, in our system, we only need "one trick ponies". James Jones is doing a great job parking outside and nailing open 3's. Raja has been a strong defensive presence. Eddie House is the high energy guy (perhaps more so than Q). Barbosa has finally evolved into the 2 guard that can create his own shot. Diaw has been successful at moving the ball.

JJ and Q's services have been replaced by committee. It is nice to have all of the services wrapped up in one player, until you have to commit about 115 million to two salaries. It is also beneficial when it comes to injuries. We are a better team now because we aren't absolutely screwed if a starter gets injured.

BTW, I can see how JJ may have been frustrated and a bit underused in the Suns system. I don't think he needed to go as far down as atlanta to find a team that could use him as a complete player. Out of the pan and into the fire...

 

[George O'Brien]

I was surprised that he gave the KIngs such a good grade on the SAR signing. He's only scoring 14.8 ppg on a team where Peja has been hurt. His record of never playing for good team seems to safe.

By the way, the WORST free agent signing was not Jerome James (although a close second). It would have to be Doug Christie, whose contract is already being bought out by the Mavs.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

The Nuggets signed Watson because they had a deal in place to send Miller and Nene to Boston for Pierce that fell apart at the last second.

Basically they thought a trade was about to go down, and it didn't - so they got stuck with someone they didn't need afterall.

 

[nowagimp]

I think what made people covet JJ was that he, and Q for that matter, wasn't percieved as a "one trick pony". Trading JJ for Diaw and future picks seemed like a bad move initially because JJ was supposedly a more complete player. What we are seeing now is that, in our system, we only need "one trick ponies".

Wow, calling Diaw "one trick pony" seems way off base. The only thing he doesnt do better than JJ is play one-on-one, and perimeter shooting. He's better defensively, passing, rebounding. I think that one versatile "one trick pony" (oxymoron). Lets see how JJ can guard power forwards and centers .... burn baby burn.

 

[jbeecham]

By the way, the WORST free agent signing was not Jerome James (although a close second). It would have to be Doug Christie, whose contract is already being bought out by the Mavs.

Yeah he definately forgot about Christie. The Brian Grant signing has to be one of worst signings by a team as well, although his salary is low. I like what Grant brought to the team when he did play, but having surgery and being out 3 months has to get him a grade of D even though not much was expected of him.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

And the Lakers gave up Caron Butler to get this bum (Brown).. Thank GOD initial rumors of Kwame heading to Phoenix were later squashed.

 

[nowagimp]

Yeah he definately forgot about Christie. The Brian Grant signing has to be one of worst signings by a team as well, although his salary is low. I like what Grant brought to the team when he did play, but having surgery and being out 3 months has to get him a grade of D even though not much was expected of him.

I think that the signings were evaluated, not just by performance, but by salary, AND length of contract. For instance, the Christie signing does not prevent Dallas from signing players next year, as it was a short term, relatively low salary committment. The bad Dallas deal was Dampier. Jerome James, however, was a 5 yr deal at 6(?) mil per year. Brian Grant was just a two year deal at a minimum salary(1.7mil), thus, it does not prevent the suns from reforming their roster. Think Tim Thomas, who signed a long term deal at 14 mil/per several years ago. Alot of the Knicks signings over the last few years have prevented retooling the franchise for years to come.

 

[F-Dog]

It's been slow going for Stro.
Stromile Swift, Houston Rockets, 5 years, $30 million.
A big reason the Rockets have been such a disappointment is that their major free-agent acquisition, Swift, has failed to deliver. He's underperforming his career numbers across the board and has failed to pick up Houston's defensive concepts, a major reason he's still suffering the indignity of being Juwan Howard's backup.
Grade: D+

I bet this isn't the first D+ Stromile has received.