Great Article by Boston Gammons

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NL West building into new frontier


posted: Saturday, May 27, 2006

Last summer we were wondering if someone -- anyone, please -- could win the National League West with a losing record. And as it turned out, the Pads did have a winning record, but it was 82-80 in a division that totaled 86 games below .500.


So here we are this year on Memorial Day weekend, and the NL West has all five of its teams above .500. Four of the five have outscored their opponents, and through May 26 the Dodgers (+59) and Diamondbacks (+45) were first and third in the league in run differential, separated by the omnipresent Cardinals (+55).


"It's a very different division," says Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, who was one of the architects of so many contending Giants teams. "They can joke all they want about the West, but every team is better than last year. Arizona is really coming on. Colorado is young, building and greatly improved."


The Dodgers, if their pitching holds up, may be the one team in 2006 that -- barring major trades -- could win 90 games. However, what makes the division so intriguing is that the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies all have foundations to be serious contenders for several years.


Los Angeles presently has two star-level players in J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra, with the caveat that they remain healthy. Jeff Kent is now hitting, and after Eddie Murray sat Rafael Furcal down and showed him spray charts from Atlanta and L.A. to prove he was trying to pull everything, he has begun to hit. Now they have mixed in young players like catcher Russell Martin and left fielder Andre Ethier; Martin is the talk of the league and the NL's best young catcher, while Ethier, whom Colletti acquired for Milton Bradley, is a clear major leaguer. Jonathan Broxton has come in and has been throwing consistently at 94-98 mph out of the bullpen.


The farm system stocked by Logan White's scouting is really deep, with CF Matt Kemp close to a jump from Double-A and RHP Chad Billingsley from Triple-A, as well as 1B James Loney, 3B Andy LaRoche, OF-INF Joel Guzman and LHP Greg Miller.

The same is true of the Diamondbacks, thanks to scouting director Mike Rizzo. Conor Jackson is already starting in the big leagues, and soon to arrive are SS Stephen Drew, OF Carlos Quentin, CF Chris Young, C Miguel Montero, OF Carlos Gonzalez and RHP Dustin Nippert. "No team," says an AL GM, "has better position-player prospects than Arizona."


The theme here is very competent scouting; in Colorado's case, it's Bill Schmidt. The Rockies already have a young, homegrown major-league team, with SS Troy Tulowitzki, 3B Ian Stewart and pitchers Franklin Morales, Juan Morillo and Ubaldo Jimenez on the horizon.

What makes the minor-league depth so intriguing is that if and/or when Florida and Oakland are willing to entertain offers for Dontrelle Willis and Barry Zito, respectively, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will be two of the first teams Larry Beinfest and Billy Beane explore.

The Dodgers' starting pitching has been remarkable. But as they beg someone to take Odalis Perez -- and someone will if L.A. pays most of the $9.5 million owed him in 2007 -- there is no clear, top-of-the-rotation guy. And the mirrors that have guided Aaron Sele can crack at any moment. If they were to add Willis or Zito ...


Arizona has a legitimate ace in Brandon Webb, but the rest of the rotation is 12-14 with a 6.29 ERA. Think about Willis with Webb -- and the gate attraction. When GM Josh Byrnes approached Beane about Zito, he was told it would take Quentin and Nipper, which Byrnes deemed too steep for a potential free agent. Willis, on the other hand, is under contract for three more years. And not only do the 'Backs have several outfield prospects, but Montero is a legitimate major-league catching prospect, something Florida lacks.

For those who yawn at the importance of the draft and the minor leagues, what White, Rizzo and Schmidt have built in L.A., Arizona and Colorado make those three teams potential powerhouses for the next 4-6 years. Not only that, but they have put the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the best positions to acquire either Willis or Zito, if they want them. Would it be interesting if Willis and Zito both ended up in the once-lowly NL West for the final two months of the season?
 

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