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MIAMI — The goal for the Miami Heat remains to avoid the May 12 NBA draft lottery. But if they are to be represented in the random-but-weighted drawing, at least they now know where they stand.
With the combination of their Sunday home loss to the Washington Wizards, the Chicago Bulls’ road victory over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns’ road loss to the Sacramento Kings, the Heat are locked into the No. 11 seed in the process.
The No. 11 lottery seed would leave the Heat with a 9.4% chance of moving up to one of the first four draft positions and a 2% chance of landing the top selection in the random-but-weighted process.
With only the first four selections determined by the weighted draw, the Heat, if in the lottery, can only exit the process with selections Nos. 1-4 or Nos. 11-14.
The No. 11 seed has a 77.59% chance of remaining at No. 11, a 12.6% chance of dropping to No. 12 and less than a 1% chance of falling to No. 13 or No. 14.
The Heat keep their lottery pick if they do not advance through the play-in to the playoffs. Otherwise their first-round pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder in June to extinguish that obligation that otherwise would move unprotected to the 2026 first round.
With Sunday’s results of the final day of the regular season, the Heat closed at 37-45, with the Bulls finishing at 39-43 and the Suns at 36-46.
Also at play Sunday was the protected first-round pick the Heat acquired from Golden State at the Feb. 8 NBA trading deadline for Jimmy Butler.
With that pick protected Nos. 1-10 in each of the next two drafts, the Heat will have to wait to see how Golden State fares in the play-in round to see if there are implications for the lottery.
If the Warriors make the playoffs by advancing through the play-in round, their selection could be No. 18, No. 19 or No. 20, with that Golden State pick then forwarded to the Heat.
If they fall into the lottery, they would be the No. 14 seed. The Heat get the Warriors’ 2025 first-round pick if it is not in the top 10.
Will all the machinations, it is possible the Heat have two 2025 first-round picks (if the Heat drop into the lottery and the Warriors make the playoffs or finish outside of the top 10 in the lottery), one first-round pick or none (if the Heat make the playoffs and the Warriors wind up with a top-10 lottery pick).
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With the combination of their Sunday home loss to the Washington Wizards, the Chicago Bulls’ road victory over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns’ road loss to the Sacramento Kings, the Heat are locked into the No. 11 seed in the process.
The No. 11 lottery seed would leave the Heat with a 9.4% chance of moving up to one of the first four draft positions and a 2% chance of landing the top selection in the random-but-weighted process.
With only the first four selections determined by the weighted draw, the Heat, if in the lottery, can only exit the process with selections Nos. 1-4 or Nos. 11-14.
The No. 11 seed has a 77.59% chance of remaining at No. 11, a 12.6% chance of dropping to No. 12 and less than a 1% chance of falling to No. 13 or No. 14.
The Heat keep their lottery pick if they do not advance through the play-in to the playoffs. Otherwise their first-round pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder in June to extinguish that obligation that otherwise would move unprotected to the 2026 first round.
With Sunday’s results of the final day of the regular season, the Heat closed at 37-45, with the Bulls finishing at 39-43 and the Suns at 36-46.
Also at play Sunday was the protected first-round pick the Heat acquired from Golden State at the Feb. 8 NBA trading deadline for Jimmy Butler.
With that pick protected Nos. 1-10 in each of the next two drafts, the Heat will have to wait to see how Golden State fares in the play-in round to see if there are implications for the lottery.
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If the Warriors make the playoffs by advancing through the play-in round, their selection could be No. 18, No. 19 or No. 20, with that Golden State pick then forwarded to the Heat.
If they fall into the lottery, they would be the No. 14 seed. The Heat get the Warriors’ 2025 first-round pick if it is not in the top 10.
Will all the machinations, it is possible the Heat have two 2025 first-round picks (if the Heat drop into the lottery and the Warriors make the playoffs or finish outside of the top 10 in the lottery), one first-round pick or none (if the Heat make the playoffs and the Warriors wind up with a top-10 lottery pick).
Continue reading...
